rafael popper - malaysian foresight institute · r. popper (2010) foresight has emerged as a key...

R. Popper

(2010)

Foresight experiences and output

in Europe and Latin America

Rafael [email protected] - Manchester Institute of Innovation Research

www.iknowfutures.eu

http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=rafaelpopper.wordpress.com&url=http%3A%2F%2Frafaelpopper.files.wordpress.com%2F2010%2F04%2Fpopper_2010.jpg&sref=http%3A%2F%2Frafaelpopper.wordpress.com%2Fbio%2F

R. Popper

(2010)

What is Foresight?

R. Popper

(2010) What is foresight?

Prospective

&

Futures

Foresight

Participation

&

Networking

Policy-making

&

Planning

• Broadly speaking…

• Foresight is not about

– forecasting by experts

• Foresight is more about

– sharing a vision and/or a set of objectives(for our children‟s future?)

– promoting trandisciplinarity research

– engaging key stakeholders, including decision- and policy-makers

– drawing upon and creating knowledge networks

– extending the breadth and depth of the knowledge base for decision-making

– organising a long term thinking process Foresight is

a process

R. Popper

(2010)

Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development and implementation of research and innovation policy.

The main focus of activity has been at the national level. Governments have sought to set priorities, to build networks between science and industry and, in some cases, to change their research system and administrative culture. Foresight has been used as a set of technical tools, or as a way to encourage more structured debate with wider participation leading to the shared understanding of long-term issues.


R. Popper

(2010) The Many Faces of Foresight

Year Country Exercise/Programme Method(s)

Since

1971 Japan 1st to 4th STA surveys Delphi

Japan 5th STA survey Delphi 1991

USA Critical Technologies Others

New Zealand Public Good Science Fund Others 1992

Germany BMFT, T 21 Others

South Korea Foresight Exercise Others 1993

Germany Delphi ’93 Delphi

UK 1st TF Programme Delphi + Others 1994

France Technology Delphi Delphi

1995 France 100 Key Technologies Others

Japan–Germany Mini-Delphi Delphi

Austria Delphi Austria Delphi


Australia Matching S&T to futures needs Others

Spain ANEP Delphi + Others

Hungary TF Programme (TEP) Delphi + Others

Netherlands Technology Radar Others 1997

Finland SITRA Foresight Others

South Africa Foresight Exercise Delphi + Others


Ireland Technology Foresight Ireland Others 1998

New Zealand Foresight Exercise Others

UK 2nd UK Foresight Programme Others

Sweden 1st Swedish Foresight Others

Spain OPTI Technology Foresight Delphi

South Korea Korean Technology Delphi Delphi

Thailand ICT Foresight Delphi + Others

1999

China TF of Priority Industries Delphi + Others

Others include: scenarios, panels, roadmapping, critical technologies, etc.


Japan 7th STA Survey Delphi

Brazil Prospectar Delphi

Brazil TFP Brazil (UNIDO/MDIC) Delphi + Others

France 2nd 100 Key Technologies Others

2000

Portugal ET2000 Others

Venezuela TFP Venezuela 1st cycle Delphi + Others

Chile TFP Chile Delphi

Germany FUTUR Others 2001

Czech Republic TF Exercise Others

Turkey Vision 2023 Delphi + Others

Colombia TFP Colombia 1st cycle Delphi + Others

UK 3rd UK Foresight Programme Others

Cyprus, Estonia, Malta eForesee Others

Denmark National TF Denmark Others

2002

USA NIH Roadmap USA Others

China TF Towards 2020 Delphi + Others

Greece Technology Foresight Greece Others

Norway Research Council 2020 studies Others 2003

Sweden 2nd Swedish TF Others

Japan 8th Japanese Programme Delphi + Others

South Korea Korea 2030 Delphi + Others

Ukraine Ukranian TF Programme Delphi + Others

France FuturRIS Others

France AGORA Others

Venezuela TFP Venezuela 2nd cycle Others

2004

Russia Key Technologies Others

Colombia TFP Colombia 2nd cycle Delphi + Others

Brazil Brazil 3 Moments Delphi + Others

Romania Romanian S&T Foresight Delphi + Others

Finland Finnsight Others

Luxembourg FNR Foresight Others

2005

USA 21st Century Challenges GAO Others

Finland SITRA Foresight Others 2006

Poland Poland 2020 – TF Programme Delphi + Others


European foresight is arguably more diverse and fragmented both in

terms of the actors involved and the methodology applied than in the

USA.

Foresight is characterised by:

• long-term orientation

• use of a range of formal tools & techniques for long-term analyses

• involvement of a wide pool of expertise and stakeholders

• crossing disciplinary boundaries and professional compartments

Foresight Generations:

• 1st Generation: dynamics of technology

• 2nd Generation: technology and markets

• 3rd Generation: technology and markets + social dimension

• 4th Generation: distributed role in the STI system

• 5th Generation: combined with other strategic fora

Rationales to argue the case for, and inform the design and use of, foresight

• Rationale 1: directing or prioritising investment in STI

• Rationale 2: building new networks & linkages around a common vision

• Rationale 3: extending the breadth of knowledge & visions of the future

• Rationale 4: bringing new actors into the strategic debate

• Rationale 5: improving policy-making and strategy formation

1

Ian Miles, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Luke Georghiou, Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper


R. Popper

(2010) From Futures to Foresight

Foresight is a set of approaches:

• Policy-making approaches ( longer-term perspective to strategic planning, allowing

flexibility and preparedness to deal with uncertainty, disruptive events and innovations,

enabling greater integration and “joining-up” of discrete and compartmentalised lines of

action.

• Participative approaches involve interaction of wider ranges of stakeholders and experts in

envisioning the future. This reflects several goals: enlarging the knowledge base,

engagement, legitimacy; and enlistment, the mobilisation of those involved in the process as

actors that can embed the messages of the programme into their own

organisations/practices.

• Prospective approaches: matching of (present and forecast) opportunities and capabilities,

framing a vision of desirable and feasible futures.

2

Ian Miles

Policy-making

Participative ProspectiveFORESIGHT

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight Methodology3

Rafael Popper

Pre-Foresight

Rationales

Sponsor(s)

Objectives

Orientation

Resources

- Core team *

- Time

- Money

- Infrastructure

- Cultural

- Political

Approaches

Time horizon

Methodology

Workplan

- Activities

- Tasks

- Deliverables

Scope

- Context

- Coverage

Recruitment

Project team *

- skills

Partners

Sub-contractors

Steering Group

Experts

- Thematic

- Sectoral

- Regional

- National

- International

Champions

- Thematic

- …

International

Panels

Methodologist

Facilitators

Rapporteurs

Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues

Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders

Step 3: generating (new) knowledge/visions through the

exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures

Step 4: shaping the future through

strategic planning

Step 5: evaluating

Generation

Existing knowledge

is amalgamated,

analysed and

synthesised

Tacit knowledge is

codified

New knowledge is

generated (e.g.

elucidation of

emerging issues,

creation of new

visions and images

of the future, etc.)

Action

Advising

- Strategies

- Policy Options

- Recommendations

- …

Transforming

- Networking

- Policy-making

- Decision-making

- …

Renewal

Learning

- Process

- Products

Evaluation

- Impacts

- Efficiency

- Appropriateness

Dissemination

- Shared Visions

- Foresight Culture

- …

KNOWLEDGE


R. Popper

(2010) Foresight Methodology3

Rafael Popper

Pre-Foresight

Rationales

Sponsor(s)

Objectives

Orientation

Resources

- Core team *

- Time

- Money

- Infrastructure

- Cultural

- Political

Approaches

Time horizon

Methodology

Workplan

- Activities

- Tasks

- Deliverables

Scope

- Context

- Coverage

Recruitment

Project team *

- skills

Partners

Sub-contractors

Steering Group

Experts

- Thematic

- Sectoral

- Regional

- National

- International

Champions

- Thematic

- …

International

Panels

Methodologist

Facilitators

Rapporteurs

Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues

Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders

Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the

exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures

Step 4: shaping the future through

strategic planning

Step 5: evaluating

Generation

Existing knowledge

is amalgamated,

analysed and

synthesised

Tacit knowledge is

codified

New knowledge is

generated (e.g.

elucidation of

emerging issues,

creation of new

visions and images

of the future, etc.)

Action

Advising

- Strategies

- Policy Options

- Recommendations

- …

Transforming

- Networking

- Policy-making

- Decision-making

- …

Renewal

Learning

- Process

- Products

Evaluation

- Impacts

- Efficiency

- Appropriateness

Dissemination

- Shared Visions

- Foresight Culture

- …

KNOWLEDGE

The Foresight

Diamond

R. Popper (2008)R. Popper (2008)

Methods relying on the originality

and inventiveness of very skilled

individuals & their tacit knowledge

Methods relying heavily

on codified knowledge,

information, data,

indicators, etc.

Methods relying on

tacit knowledge of

people with

privileged access to

relevant information

or with accumulated

knowledge

Methods

relying

heavily on the

participation

and shared

views of

experts and

non-experts


R. Popper

(2010)

Foresight is not mere fashion

R. Popper

(2010)


Since




























1999








2000











2002










France AGORA Others


2004







2005





Evolution of Programmes/Exercises

R. Popper

(2010)


Since




























1999








2000











2002










France AGORA Others


2004







2005





Evolution of Programmes/Exercises

We have mapped

(i.e. scanned & analysed)

these and many more experiences…

R. Popper

(2010)

EFMN EFP Mapping Foresight in the world

• EFMN (now EFP) Mapping Foresight work has produced a vast amount of information on foresight unprecedented in the world

• The mapping has been useful to understand foresight practices in Europe and other world regions

2005 2006 20072004

437cases mapped

> 800

identified

767cases mapped

> 1400

identified

100cases mapped

846cases mapped

> 1600

identified

2008

> 1000cases mapped

> 2000

Identified

2009

Mapping

Foresight

Key Lessons

+

Findings

Introducing

networking

(SNA) and

systemic

analyses

into

Foresight

(Foresight Ark)

2010-2012

Mapping

Foresight

&

Forecasting

Introducing

Wild Cards &

Weak Signals

(WI-WE)

systems

+

Web 2.0 scanning

+

Bottom-up

Evaluation

http://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/2009/03/02/emerald-literati-awards-for-excellence-outstanding-paper-award-winner/

R. Popper

(2010)

So, what do we know about Foresight

experiences and practice?

R. Popper

(2010) Over 2000 foresight studies mapped

0

200

400

600

800

Inte

rnatio

nal

Euro

pe

Latin A

merica

No

rth A

merica

Asia

Oceania

Levels 0&1 Levels 2&3

+

R. Popper

(2010)

Foresight in Europe

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Belgium

• Sponsors: Délégation à l'aménagement du

territoire et à l'action régionale (DATAR);

Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry; the

Ministry of Defence; the Conseil économique et

social régional (CESR-Centre); among others

1. Supporting policy or strategy development: e.g.

developing a long-term vision on the

opportunities and threats for the Flemish region

(broad socio-economic orientation).

2. Articulating supply and demand: e.g.

investigating which energy system the Flanders

region would need in 30-50 years and how such

a system could be achieved.

3. Analysing the future potential of technologies:

e.g. understanding the meaning of

nanotechnology for improving the

competitiveness of the country.

4. Methodology and capacity building: e.g.

developing methodologies and tools to assess

the impact of flood risk reduction measures.

5. Network building: e.g. organising a network of

competent suppliers fitted to the companies‟

needs and a framework for innovation.

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Denmark

• Sponsors: Ministry of Science, Technology and

Innovation (VTU); the Ministry of Trade and

Industry; the Ministry of Environment; the

Environmental Protection Agency; the Risø

National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy; and

the Nordic Innovation Centre, among others.


e.g. analysing environmental potentials and

risks related to three generic technologies

(nanotechnology, biotechnology and ICT) within

the coming 15-20 years.


promoting strategies for sustainable

development in coastal areas.

3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. providing decision

support for companies and research institutes

in defining R&D priorities and assisting

governmental decision-makers in making

effective framework policies for the introduction

of hydrogen energy.

4. Network building: e.g. creating a framework for

an open debate between experts, politicians and

stakeholders in the energy sector.

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Finland

• Sponsors: National Fund for Research and

Development (SITRA); Ministry of Agriculture

and Forestry; Ministry of Education; Parliament;

and the National Technology Agency of Finland

(TEKES), among others.


e.g. facilitating a multifaceted discussion about

the potential of new technologies in supporting

the independent living of elderly people.


exploring the future development trends in

knowledge intensive business services (KIBS)

as a whole and by sub-sectors.

3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. helping regional

bodies to prioritise innovations about

knowledge society developments.

4. Network building: e.g. generating information on

long-term development views for decision-

making by regional, sub-regional and local

actors.


influencing the educational system by

promoting the capabilities for reacting to

qualifications needs.

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in France

• Sponsors: National Fund for Research and

Development (SITRA); Ministry of Agriculture

and Forestry; Ministry of Education; Parliament;

and the National Technology Agency of Finland

(TEKES), among others.


determining how France can distinguish itself

and stay among the most competitive and

attractive countries through technology.


e.g. detecting weak signals of disruptive events,

to forecast next technological breakdowns and

to provide a continuous technology watch on

key subjects for the micro/nanotechnology

community.

3. Public engagement: e.g. reviewing and

launching a national debate on the challenges of

the French Research and Innovation System.

4. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. analysing

supply and demand of technologies for France

in order to help firms to have a better vision of

their technological preferences.


developing, piloting & demonstrating the value

of „light‟ and flexible regional foresight methods.

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Germany

• Sponsors: Federal Ministry of Education and

Research (BMBF); Bavarian State Ministry of

Sciences, Research and the Arts; government of

Rheinland-Pfalz; companies like Siemens AG;

among others.


analysing the strategies that regions should

implement to become future-oriented.

2. Public engagement: e.g. picking up values and

ideals of the population and implementing

concrete measures in order to overcome gaps

due to different mentalities within the country.


e.g. analysing the relevance of applications and

innovations of nanotechnology in the health

sector.

4. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. introducing new

perspectives into the research agenda of the

Federal Ministry of Education and Research

(BMBF) by adding to the traditional mechanisms

for agenda-setting and prioritisation.


developing methodologies and tools to assess

the impact of flood risk reduction measures and

scenarios.

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Italy

• Sponsors: Ministry of Defence; Lombardia

Regional Government; Milan Regional

Government; Regional Government of Trentino;

and the Chamber of Commerce; among others.


developing a SWOT analysis of the Trentino

region, its potential and future vision.

2. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. looking at

the upcoming changes for manufacturing

industry in various regions in order to prepare

SMEs for the future.


e.g. evaluating the national interest and the

scientific and industrial feasibility of developing

new emerging technologies in selected areas.

4. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. helping public

decision-makers set priorities in a rational way.


providing socio-economic perspectives using

foresight techniques.

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in the Netherlands

• Sponsors: Centraal Plan Bureau (CPB); Sociaal

Cultureel Planbureau (SCP); Ministry of Social

Affairs and Employment; Ministry of Economic

Affairs; Ministry of Education, Culture and

Science; Ministry of Internal Affairs; the

Provinces of Limburg, North-Brabant and

Utrecht; among others.


identifying future trends in agri-business

generated by internationalisation.

2. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. articulating

major knowledge and innovation challenges in

rural areas.

3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. Identifying priorities

in national innovation areas for the Dutch

economy based on the innovation and research

portfolios of SenterNovem and NWO (public

funding agencies).


e.g. identifying technology fields that are likely

to be of strategic importance to business and

industry in the next 10 years.

5. Public engagement: e.g. stimulating public

discussion on a sustainable future for Brabant.

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Norway

• Sponsors: Norwegian Research Council (NRC);

Nordic Innovation Centre; Norwegian Institute

for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR) and the

Drammen Municipalities; among others.


identifying „best practices‟ in the Nordic

countries for technology foresight and similar

methodologies for prioritising in S&T.

2. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. identifying research

priorities and policy recommendations related to

advanced materials technology;

nanotechnology; oil and energy; and

aquaculture sectors.

3. Public engagement: e.g. developing an arena in

which different stakeholders and actors can

reflect together on future options for a region.


developing a strategic plan for the development

of Drammen Kommune over the coming years.

5. Articulating supply and demand: e.g.

demonstrating the energy and power that will be

consumed within buildings in 2030 (scenario

approaches show different averages of energy

standards in new and existing residential

buildings).

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Spain

• Sponsors: Ministry of S&T; the Ministry of

Industry; Ministry of Education; Guipuzkoa

Government; Junta de Castilla la Mancha; and

Galicia Regional Government; among others.


analysing the current state of key sectors in

Spain (e.g. civil construction, chemical,

transport, design, etc.) in order to assess

actions in the next 15 years.


e.g. defining key technologies in the materials

sector that will influence both energy and

transport industries in the next 15 years.

3. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. identifying research

priorities in biotechnology in accordance with

the guidelines of the Regional Plan for R&D.

4. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. identifying

new demands on tourism at a global level over

for the next 10 years.

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in the United Kingdom

• Sponsors: British Council; Defra; the

Department of Trade and Industry (DTI);

Department of Transport; Government Office for

Science (former OST); and the UK Royal

Academy of Engineers; among others.


e.g. exploring the implications of future

information technologies in areas such as

identity and authenticity, surveillance, system

robustness, security and information assurance.


producing a challenging and long-term (30-100

years) vision for the future of flood and coastal

defence.


identifying where foresight could add the

greatest value, and helping generate a foresight

culture.

4. Articulating supply and demand: e.g. identifying

key areas of long-term opportunity, assessing

these against UK capabilities, and agreeing a

plan of action to exploit these areas.

5. Priority setting for S&T: e.g. identifying priorities

for public and private R&D spending.

R. Popper

(2010)

Foresight in Latin America

R. Popper

(2010) Historical landmarks (1970s influence)

• Bariloche Group(Argentina)

• Javier Barros Sierra Foundation (Mexico)

• CENDES(Venezuela)

• S&T Observatory(Cuba)

• S&T Office COLCIENCIAS(Colombia)

Source: Popper & Medina (2008)

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in UNIDO TFLAC

• TFP created in 1999

• Main actors

– UNIDO

– Governmental agencies and departments

• Main objectives

– Foresight culture

– High-level political awareness

– Industrial & technological development

• Main activities

– Capacity building / Training courses

– Seminars / conferences

– Sectoral / industrial exercises

– Publications

• Main countries

– Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela


R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Argentina

• TFP created in 2000

• Main actors

– Secretary for Science & Technology (SECyT) and UNIDO

• Main activities

– Learning from international experiences

– diagnostic studies in 3 sectors:• Biotechnology

• Chemical

• Textile industries

– Technology Foresight Observatory (created in 2000 but frozen in 2001)

– Strategic Middle Term Plan of STI for 2015

• started in October 2003, completed in 2005

• coordinated by the National Observatory of Science, Technology and Productive Innovation (ONCTIP)

• Panels, Survey, workshops, prioritisation of key areas

• Over 4,000 people involved

• Main goals:

– To strengthen & enlarge the National System of STI

– To improve quality, efficiency & pertinence of S&T activities

– To increase S&T expenditure to 1% of the GDP in 2007

– To increase participation of the private sector to the 0.50% of the GDP


R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Chile

• TFP Created in 2001

• Main actor

– Ministry of Economy

• Main objectives

– discovery pathways toward a desired future

– identification of strategies or action plan for its achievement.

• Main methods

– Brainstorming

– Delphi

• Main activities

– „e-ducation industry‟: ICT applied to Education

– aquaculture industry

– wine production and exports

– biotechnology applied to fruits and horticulture

– biotechnology applied to forest industry

– the Chilean software industry.


R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Cuba

• Main actor

– Cuban Observatory of Science and Technology (OCCyT)

• Main objectives

– Monitoring emerging technologies

– developing foresight exercises in key strategic sectors

– developing human capital with proactive attitudes as opposed to reactive

• Main methods

– Technology watch (trends & disruptions)

– Brainstorming

– Delphi

• Main activities

– Health

– Biotechnology

– Information technology


R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Peru

• Main actors

– UNIDO since 2001

– CONCYTEC since 2002

– Consortium Prospective Peru (CPP) since 2002

• Main objectives

– Build foresight capabilities

– Support exercises in strategic sectors

– Strengthen links with international foresight practitioners

• Main methods

– Brainstorming

– SWOT

– Scenarios

– Cross-impact

• Main activities

– textile and clothing, biotechnology and agriculture, sea products and water, new materials, energy, housing and construction and tourism


R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Uruguay

• Main actors

– Presidency

– UNIDO (2000)

– Various ministries

• Main objectives

– competitive industrialization of the country

– integration of knowledge in the value chain

• Main methods

– Brainstorming

– Surveys

– Panels

– Delphi

– Scenarios & recommendations

• Main activities

– Energy

– Transport and logistic

– Biotechnology & agriculture


R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Venezuela

• Main actors

– MCT

– MPD

– CENDES

– IESA

– PDVSA

– LUZ, ULA, UCV, UNEFM, UNEFA

• Main objectives

– Building capabilities & foresight culture + execute exercises

– Promote endogenous development, social inclusion & technological sovereignty

• Main methods

– Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, focus groups, community dialog, Interviews

• Main activities

– Yucca in Gondola; Shared Vision of the Future of the Gas Industry; Scenarios for the Agro-biotechnological Development of the Country; and Foresight on Biotechnology for Agro-Food Security by 2011

– National Plan for STI 2005-2030

• Main actors

– FONACYT, IVIC, INTEVEP, CDCH, MCT, FUNDACITES, universities

• Main objectives:

– To build an evaluation & promotion system for new stakeholders

– To relate STI results to the needs of most excluded people

– To promote a selective assimilation of technologies

– To promote pertinent technological developments

– To build S&T networks on priority areas

– To create and strengthen R&D centres

– To promote priority research areas

– To build S&T capabilities Source: Popper & Medina (2008)

R. Popper

(2010) Foresight in Brazil

• Main actors

– MST, MDIC, NAE, FINEP, CNPq

– UFRJ, UNICAMP, USP, among others

– CGEE

• Main objective

– To inform both government and industry about possible impacts of S&T trends

• Main methods

– Brainstorming

– Prioritisation workshops and surveys

– Delphi

– Scenarios & cross-impact

• Main activities

– Brazil 2020

– MST / PROSPECTAR

– MDIC / BTFP

– NAE / Brazil 3 Tempos

– CGEE activities


R. Popper

(2010)

• Main actors– Colciencias, National Centre of Productivity (CNP), SENA

– UNIVALLE, Externado

– CAF, CAB, UNIDO

• Main objectives– Building capabilities & foresight culture

– Fund and execute exercises

• Main methods– Brainstorming, Surveys, Panels, SWOT, Delphi, cross-impact

– Scenarios & recommendations

• Main activities– Electric Sector

– Food Packaging Sector

– Lacteous Sector

– Export potential of the health sector cluster in the Cauca Valley

– Agro-industrial productive chain of Fique in Santander

– Making Cartagena a tourist destiny

– Horticulture productive chain of the Bogotá plains

– Among others…

• Evaluation– The first Latin American Foresight Programme to be evaluated

Foresight in Colombia


R. Popper

(2010) Highlights of Latin American Foresight

• Foresight entered the LA policy environment as a tool for anticipating possible futures

• However, there have been many interpretations and uses.

– Some refer to traditional futures studies

– Some focus on technology assessment

– Many focus on the French „prospective tool box‟

– And recently, in part due to international initiatives – such as the UNIDO‟s Technology Foresight Programme for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNIDO TFLAC) and a number of European Commission‟s networks and projects – some countries began to practice foresight as a combination of:

• Prospective approaches

• Participation approaches

• Policymaking approaches

… as a tool for building consensus & shaping the future


R. Popper

(2010) Influence of IGOs

• The role of IGOs have been fundamental for dissemination and capacity building activities:

– UNIDO

– ECLAC

– UNESCO

– Andres Bello Agreement (CAB)

– Andean Development Bank (CAF)

– Organisation of American States (OAS)

– Latin American Economic System (SELA)

– European Union (EU)


R. Popper

(2010) Influence of associations & networks

• The RIAP Network

• The Quo Vadis network

• The S&T for Development (CYTED)

• The Euro-Latin SELF-RULE network

Current practices and exercises are more

characterised by collaborative work between:

– International organisations

– Institutions

– Networks


R. Popper

(2010) Organisational Forms

Europe• Many national Programmes

• Many networks(mostly EU funded)

• Many exercises (national, international, regional, sectoral and thematic)

• Some specialised centres

S

C

O

P

E

+Networks

Consortiums & Projects

Programmes

(Nationals & Internationals)

-Exercises

(One-off & Sectoral)

Specialised Centres &

Institutions

- +

ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Latin America

• Few National Programmes (Brazil,

Chile, Colombia and Venezuela)

• Few networks

(SELF-RULE, RIAP)

• Many one-off / sectoral exercises

• Few specialised centres


R. Popper

(2010) A Panorama of the Latin Experience

CountryState of

Evolution *Level + Focus # Objectives ~

Argentina A/I R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act-P

Bolivia Im Se F/s A

Brazil A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P

Chile Le N, R, Se F/s, P A, Act, Act-P

Colombia A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P

Cuba A/I R, Se, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P

Ecuador Le Se, Ac F/s A

Panama Im Se F/s A

Paraguay Im Se F/s A

Peru Le N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne

Mexico A/I N, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne

Uruguay Le N,R, Se F/s A

Venezuela A/I N, R, Se, O, Ac F/s, P A, Ne, Act, Act-P

* State of evolution: position of foresight/future activities in the country along a spectrum

from imitation [Im], via learning [Le} to adaptation/innovation [A/I]

+ Level: national [N], regional [R], sectoral [Se], organizational [O], academic [Ac]

# Focus: foresight [F/s], policy action [P]

~ Objectives: anticipation [A], networking [Ne], action achieved [Act], action proposed [Act-P]


R. Popper

(2010)Lessons and Key Findings

of Mapping Foresight

Available at:

http://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/mapping-foresight

and

http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/efmn-mapping-foresight_en.pdf











R. Popper

(2010) mapping sponsors

• government agencies and departments (or simply „government‟) are

the main sponsors of foresight in all regions, although we can see a

few differences.

– For example, government sponsorship is present in nearly all European

and Latin American cases mapped, but is to some extent less dominant

in North America, Asia and Oceania.

R. Popper

(2010) mapping target audiences

• Broadly speaking, there is no great variation, government agencies and departments are the main target groups, regardless of the region.

• The most remarkable results are the relatively large numbers of research and business community targets – far more than there are sponsors. This basically indicates that public administrations often sponsor studies targeted at these other groups. But also governments are among target groups more often than they are among sponsors, suggesting that other sponsors could be using foresight exercises to shape public policy agendas.

R. Popper

(2010) mapping time horizons

• Most exercises are looking 10 to 20 years ahead into the future. With the majority of mapped exercises being initiated in the late 1990s or early 2000s, our analyses are focusing on early 21st Century foresight practices.

• The figure also shows that Europe, North America, Asia and Oceania have a more strategic attitude towards the far future(e.g. 30, 50, 100 years ahead).

R. Popper

(2010) mapping territorial scale

• For all world regions, the national level is by far the most important. As policy-making is still predominantly carried out at this level, this result should come as little surprise. The remaining foresight initiatives are more or less equally distributed over the other territorial scales, although there are some significant differences between regions.

• Sub-national exercises are found most frequently in Europe– possibly reflecting long-term trends of regionalisation in many European countries – closely followed by Latin America.

R. Popper

(2010) mapping socio-economic sectors

R. Popper

(2010) mapping outputs

• The results shows the popularity of some

common codified outputs.

R. Popper

(2010) mapping methods

• The results indicate that some methods are very widely used across the world; such is the case for:

– expert panels,

– literature review,

– scenarios

– trend extrapolatio.

R. Popper

(2010)

Other key lessons about

Foresight practices and methodologies

R. Popper

(2010)

See Popper (2008), “How are foresight methods selected?”, Foresight, Volume 10, 2008, issue 6

• First argument

– methods are chosen based on their „„intrinsic attributes‟‟

• their nature

– Qualitative

– Quantitative

– Semi-quantitative

• their capabilities, i.e. the ability to gather or process information

based on:

– Evidence

– Expertise

– Interaction

– Creativity

• Second argument

– methods are chosen based on fundamental elements and

conditions influencing the foresight process;

in other words, foresight process needs matter.

How are foresight methods selected?

R. Popper

(2010)

Two questions related to the intrinsic attributes of methods:

1. How is selection influenced by the nature of methods?

2. How is selection influenced by the capabilities of methods?

Nine questions related to the elements of foresight processes:

3. How is selection influenced by the Geo-R&D context?

4. How is selection influenced by the Domain coverage?

5. How is selection influenced by the Territorial scale?

6. How is selection influenced by the Time horizon?

7. How is selection influenced by the Sponsorship?

8. How is selection influenced by the Target groups?

9. How is selection influenced by the Participation scale?

10.How is selection influenced by the Codified outputs?

11.How is selection influenced by the Methods Mix?11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

R. Popper

(2010)

Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative

Methods providing meaning

to events and perceptions.Such interpretations tend to be

based on subjectivity or creativity

often difficult to corroborate (e.g.

brainstorming, interviews)

Methods measuring variables and

apply statistical analyses, using or

generating (hopefully) reliable and

valid data (e.g. economic indicators)

Methods which apply mathematical

principles to quantify subjectivity,

rational judgements and viewpoints

of experts and commentators (i.e.

weighting opinions)

1.Backcasting

2.Brainstorming

3.Citizens panels

4.Conferences/workshops

5.Essays /Scenario writing

6.Expert panels

7.Genius forecasting

8.Interviews

9.Literature review

10.Morphological analysis

11.Relevance trees /logic charts

12.Role play / Acting

13.Scanning

14.Scenario /Scenario workshops

15.Science fictioning (SF)

16.Simulation gaming

17.Surveys

18.SWOT analysis

19.Weak signals /Wildcards

20. Benchmarking

21. Bibliometrics

22. Indicators / time series analysis

23. Modelling

24. Patent analysis

25. Trend extrapolation / impact

analysis

26. Cross-impact / structural analysis

27. Delphi

28. Key / Critical technologies

29. Multi-criteria analysis

30. Polling / Voting

31. Quantitative scenarios / SMIC

32. Roadmapping

33. Stakeholder analysis

Classifying methods by their nature

Source: Popper (2008)

R. Popper

(2010)

How is selection

influenced by

the intrinsic

nature

of methods ?

very high

influence

Popper (2008)

1

R. Popper

(2010)

(Even if unintentionally!) high influence

Popper (2008)

If you take into account

that, on “average”,

foresight studies use

from 5 to 6 methods

How is selection influenced by their capabilities? 2

R. Popper

(2010)

3 final remarks for better

Foresight experiences and outputs

R. Popper

(2010)

First:Remember

how are foresight methods selected

R. Popper

(2010) Remember how are foresight methods selected

• Two factors with very high influence:

– Intrinsic nature

– Methods Mix

• Three factors with High influence:

– Capability to gather and process knowledge

– Geo-R&D context

– Codified outputs

• Some factors with Moderate influence:

– Participation scale

– Time horizon

– see other factors in figure below…

Popper (2008)

Foresight methods are selected in a

(not always coherent or systematic)

multi-factor process.

So far this process has been

dominated by the intuition, insight,

impulsiveness and – sometimes –

inexperience or irresponsibility of

practitioners and organisers.

R. Popper

(2010)

Second:Recognise the power of

interdisciplinarity

by

interconnecting knowledge

R. Popper

(2010)

A Natural sciences

A04 Chemical Science (key broker)

A06 Biological Science

B Engineering & Technology

B02 Industrial Biotechnology & Food Sciences

B04 Manufacturing Engineering

B09 Environmental Engineering (key broker)

B10 Materials Engineering

B11 Biomedical Engineering

B12 Electrical and Electronic Engineering

B13 Communications Technologies (key broker)

C Medical sciences

C01 Medicine General

C05 Pharmacology & Pharmaceutical Sciences

C12 Public Health & Health Services (key broker)

D Agricultural sciences

D01 Crop and Pasture Production (key broker)

E Social sciences

E01 Education

E02 Economics

E03 Commerce, management, tourism & services

E04 Policy and Political Science (key broker)

E05 Studies in human society

In a way, research in Social Sciences is the „binder‟ of all

research topics in the foresight exercises. This is quite the

opposite with research within Humanities, which have the

least salient links to other research topics in the exercise.

Recognising „key sub-areas‟

Source: Popper (2009)

Introducing SNA and systemic analyses into our Mapping Foresight work

R. Popper

(2010)

Third:Consider surprising and emerging issues

(Wild Cards & Weak Signals)

R. Popper

(2010)

iKNOW Policy Brief 001 - Major EU state elects neo fascist leader

iKNOW Policy Brief 002 - Transhumanism becomes a significant force

iKNOW Policy Brief 003 - Universal electronic systems breakdown

iKNOW Policy Brief 004 - Wheat crisis hits humans and animals

iKNOW Policy Brief 005 - Floods in Europe cause mass migration

iKNOW Policy Brief 006 - Outburst of the black economy

iKNOW Policy Brief 007 - Pervasive self-diagnosis and self-treatment

iKNOW Policy Brief 008 - Invisibility spray available in Boots

iKNOW Policy Brief 009 - China‟s investment and services great wall

iKNOW Policy Brief 010 - Abrupt disintegration of the Euro Zone

And many more…

What if?

Source: iKNOW – see www.iknowfutures.eu

http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1133/iknow-policy-brief-001-major-eu-state-elects-neo-fascist-leader




http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1135/iknow-policy-brief-002-transhumanism-becomes-a-significant-force




http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1137/iknow-policy-brief-003-universal-electronic-systems-breakdown




http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1139/iknow-policy-brief-004-wheat-crisis-hits-humans-and-animals




http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1141/iknow-policy-brief-005-floods-in-europe-cause-mass-migration




http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1143/iknow-policy-brief-006-outburst-of-the-black-economy




http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1145/iknow-policy-brief-007-pervasive-selfdiagnosis-and-selftreatment








http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1147/iknow-policy-brief-008-invisibility-spray-available-in-boots




http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1149/iknow-policy-brief-009-chinas-investment-and-services-great-wall




http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/file/popper/view/1151/iknow-policy-brief-010-abrupt-disintegration-of-the-euro-zone




R. Popper

(2010)

R. Popper

(2010)Exploiting Wild Cards and Weak Signals

Imaginary Call

Thematic area(s)

Research topic

Objective

Expected impact

Importance for Europe

Page 4 of 4

R. Popper

(2010)

Thank you! [email protected]

R. Popper

(2010) References and further reading

The Handbook of Technology Foresight (2008)Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Michael Keenan, Ian Miles and Rafael Popper (Eds)

From futures to foresight

Ian Miles (Chapter 2)

Foresight methodology

Rafael Popper (Chapter 3)

Foresight in Latin America

Rafael Popper & Javier Medina (Ch. 12)

Foresight, Volume 10, Number 6, 2008Editors‟ introduction to the European Foresight Monitoring Network

Maurits Butter, Felix Brandes, Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper

Comparing foresight “style” in six world regions

Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper

How are foresight methods selected?

Rafael Popper

Mapping Foresight (2009)Rafael Popper

NOTE: This is the final report of the Mapping Workpackage of the EFMN

project. The report will be printed by the European Commission in 2009.

A limited number of hardcopies will be produced but its electronic

versions will be freely available in the EC and EFMN websites.

Policy Transfer and Learning

Luke Georghiou & Jennifer Cassingena Harper (Ch 14)

Evaluation and Impact of Foresight

Luke Georghiou and Michael Keenan (Chapter 15)

New Frontiers: Emerging Foresight

Ian Miles et al. (Chapter 16)

rafael popper - malaysian foresight institute · r. popper (2010) foresight has emerged as a key...

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