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Rahul Sengupta Avinash Nagaraja Kyle Samani Neha Gaddam

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Page 1: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Rahul Sengupta Avinash Nagaraja

Kyle SamaniNeha Gaddam

Page 2: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Agenda

Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation Summary Q&A

Page 3: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Thesis

Diverse portfolio of modern tankers Stable future contracts Worldwide increased demand and production of

energy resources High dividend yield

Page 4: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Investment Philosophy

"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell”

- John M. Templeton

Page 5: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Industry Overview

How oil is transported Pipelines Ships Trains Trucks

Page 6: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Pipelines

Page 7: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Oil Reserves Worldwide

Page 8: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Shipping

Deliver goods from point A to point B

Value is based on: Type of Ship Age of Ship Long Haul Short Haul

Page 9: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Our Company

Transport crude oil and petroleum products worldwide

Major clientele include major national and independent oil companies

Versatile fleet of modern crude and product tankers with strong ice class capabilities

Page 10: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Our Fleet Diversity

48 Tankers in service 23 Crude oil carriers: 3 VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) 10 Suezmax 10 Aframax

25 Product carriers: 3 Aframax LR 7 Panamax 6 Handymax MR 8 Handysize 1 LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)

4 more Aframax vessels under construction

Page 11: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

VLCC

Most effective way of transporting large volume of oil over long distances

Capacity: 2 million barrels

Page 12: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Panamax

Can transit the Panama Canal fully loaded

Capacity: 0.5 million barrels

Page 13: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Ice Class

23 ships in our fleet are ice class rated

Increased oil demand in winter in the Northern Hemisphere

Page 14: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

New Regulations

Page 15: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

New Regulations

Page 16: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Double Hull Requirements

International Marine Organization “All single hulled oil

tankers must be decomissioned by 2010”

18% of tankers still single hulled

Tsakos advantage Entire fleet is double

hulled

Page 17: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Risks

Calibration of supply and demand Prolonged lower oil production Piracy Higher operating costs

Page 18: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Map of Operations

Page 19: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Our Fleet Age

One of the youngest fleets in the industry Average age of our fleet: 6.3 years Average age of industry: 9.8 years

Tankers usually scrapped after 20-30 years

Page 20: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Them

Page 21: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Us

Page 22: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Types of Contracts

Time charter Vessel leased for a specific amount of time Few months to several years

Payment 30% on fixed rate 70% on variable rate

Predictable cash flows

Spot charter Single voyage Payment based on market rates Either on a $/tonne or on a lump sum basis

Higher profit margins

Page 23: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Operational Costs

Vessel Costs Includes: Crew, maintenance, insurance, etc. Between $8,500 – $9,500/day

Voyage Costs Includes: Fuel costs, port and canal fees, etc. Fuel accounts for 59% of voyage cost

Page 24: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Who Pays What?

Time charter Charterer bears voyage costs Short term contracts – Tsakos bears vessel costs Long term contracts – Charterer bears vessel costs “Rental car”

Spot charter Tsakos bears all costs “Taxi”

Page 25: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Tsakos’ Contracts

2/3 of fleet on time charters Most due to expire between 2011-2013 Just re-signed a 2 year extension on a Suezmax

(Decathlon)

1/3 of fleet on spot charters Single voyage

Above average fleet utilization: 97.1% 59% of 2010 days are booked

Page 26: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Fleet Utilization

Page 27: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Our Customers

Page 28: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Tsakos Group Affiliation

Technical management by Tsakos Shipping 87 vessels under

management One of the largest

tanker managers in the world

Economies of scale Procuring supplies Underwriting insurance

Page 29: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Macroeconomic Catalysts

Future oil consumption Location of oil wells Emerging markets

Page 30: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Do I See China?

China is on a materials rampage

Buying up as much resources as possible Nigerian Oil Well Bid Kazak Oil Fields

Page 31: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

And India?

75% of crude oil is imported $61.72 billion worth of crude oil

Page 32: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Cars, Cars, Cars!

Page 33: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Today

Page 34: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Tomorrow

Page 35: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Oil Production and Consumption

Page 36: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Oil Consumption by Region

Page 37: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Baltic Dry Index

Compiled daily by the Baltic Exchange Tracks international shipping prices of dry bulk

cargoes Accurate barometer of future global trade

Page 38: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Baltic Dry Index and TNP

Baltic Dry Index

Baltic Dry Index

TNP Stock Performance

Page 39: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Relative Valuation

CompanyMarket

CapP/E Revenue/Ship

($ Millions) ROE

Tsakos Energy Navigation

550M 5.02 12.07 11.91%

Hornbeck Offshore Services

726.85M 7.85 10.42 13.91%

General Maritime Corporation 445.13M 10.45 16.39 11.82%

Overseas ShipholdingGroup 1,110M 5.94 12.05 12.2%

Page 40: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Ship Revenue

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Taskos Energy Navigation

Hornbeck Offshore Services

General Maritime Corporation

Overseas Shipholding Group

Reve

nue/

Ship

($

Mill

ions

)

Revenue per Ship

Page 41: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Dividends

Company Dividend Yield (%)

Tsakos Energy Navigation 7.05

Teekay Corp. 5.09

Overseas Shipholding Group 4.23

Diana Shipping None

Hornbeck Offshore Services None

Next Ex-Dividend date: October 20th, 2009

Page 42: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Dividend Yield

Page 43: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Book Value/Share

Page 44: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Price/Book Value per Share

Page 45: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Summary

Fleet Diverse portfolio to meet our customers’ needs Modern ships – complies with new regulations

Long term stability High fleet utilization Generated a net profit every year since inception Economies of scale arising from our relationship with Tsakos

Shipping Macroeconomic catalysts

Increased demand for oil transportation by sea Financials

Great dividend yield

Page 46: Rahul Sengupta Kyle Samani Neha Gaddampages.stern.nyu.edu/~iag/presentations/2009-2010/TNP.pdfNeha Gaddam Agenda Thesis Industry Overview Our Company Macroeconomic Catalysts Valuation

Q & A

Questions?