rap module no. 02b jamesshenot measuringaqimpactsofeemodule 2b nescaum 2012-09-06

8/12/2019 RAP MODULE NO. 02B JamesShenot MeasuringAQImpactsofEEModule 2B Nescaum 2012-09-06

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The Regulatory Assistance Project 50 State Street, Suite 3

Montpelier, VT 05602

Phone: 802-223-8199

web: www.raponline.org

Calculating Emissions Reductions:Module 2B

Presented byChris James and John Shenot

September 6, 2012


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Overview of Module 2B: CalculatingEmissions Reductions

1. Data needed2. Location and time of day considerations3. Understanding how emissions factors are

calculated and used4. Methods to determine emissions saved:Average emissions Marginal emissions

Stochastic process Dispatch modeling


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1. Which Type of Energy Savings to Use?(Refresh from Module 2A)

Savings can be determined by measure,program, project and portfolio

How much time and effort can youdevote?

Can another agency help you?

Is it important for you to do most or all ofthe analysis yourself?


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1. Data Needed

Quantity of energy saved (from data sources like those wediscussed in module 1)

What are you going to include in your analysis? Individualmeasures, project(s), program(s) or portfolio?

Installation rate, persistence and lifetime of measures,

program, project or portfolio analyzed N.B., the more granular your analysis, the more time and effort

it will take. Precision will improve, but compared to theprotocols used for some traditional control measures, that maybe less important

Decide whether coincidence between times that energy issaved and when pollutant levels are high matters to you


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2. Location and Time of Day Considerations

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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved

Average emissions method

Marginal emissions method

Stochastic process Dispatch modeling


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4. Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Average Emissions Method

Simple, may be less precise than othermethods, but acceptable for first-orderapproximation

Examples:

Regulatory limit for NOx: 1.5 lbs/MWh

Average emissions for the power pool or state


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved- AverageEmissions Method (cont.): Central Region of US


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved- AverageEmissions Method (cont.): NERC Sub-Regions

Used for Egrid Emissions Factors


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved- AverageEmissions Method (cont.): Egrid Sub-Region

Average Emissions Rates

GRIDsubregion

cronym

eGRID subre ion name

NOx

lb/MWh

Ozone

season NOx

lb/MWh

SO2

lb/MWh

NOx

lb/MWh

Ozone

season NOx

lb/MWh

SO2

lb/MWh

NOx

lb/MWh

Ozone

season NOx

lb/MWh

SO2

lb/MWh

Total output emission rates

Fossil fuel output

emission rates

Non-baseload output

emission rates

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NEWE NPCC New England 0.5242 0.3851 1.4175 0.4724 0.3652 2.1776 0.6539 0.4892 2.1336NWPP WECC Northwest 1.0421 0.9679 1.0465 2.2506 2.1974 2.2627 1.5014 1.5262 1.1596

NYCW NPCC NYC/Westchester 0.2792 0.2905 0.1030 0.3947 0.3981 0.0832 0.6110 0.6275 0.1427

NYLI NPCC Long Island 1.1310 0.9693 1.0030 1.0073 0.8631 0.9377 1.1701 1.0261 1.1133

NYUP NPCC Upstate NY 0.3954 0.4009 0.9849 1.0478 1.0882 2.7612 1.0146 1.0079 2.8584

RFCE RFC East 0.8130 0.7444 4.6048 1.3964 1.2574 8.3936 1.4034 1.3682 8.3013

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5. Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Marginal Emissions Analysis (MEA)

The next slides focus on New England

What you will see is the result of 10+ years ofcollaboration between air and energy

regulators and ISO-NE Straight-forward approach, transparent

assumptions

Method is able to be adjusted to reflect marketand economic conditions


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-MarginalEmissions Analysis (cont.): Framing Questions

What units are being displaced by EE?

What fuel(s) are combusted?

What variables influence what unit ismarginal?

Can simplifying assumptions be made?


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-MarginalEmissions Analysis (cont.): ISO-NE Environmental

Advisory Group

Recognizes markets are not static

Economics affect what fuels are combusted

Analyzes peak and off-peak, and ozone vs. non-ozone periods

Methodology has evolved, informed by airregulator input

Reference to recent work: http://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdf
http://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdfhttp://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdfhttp://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdfhttp://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdfhttp://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdfhttp://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdfhttp://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdfhttp://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdfhttp://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdfhttp://www.iso-ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/eag/mtrls/2012/apr202012/eag_mrgnl_ems_042012_v8.pdf


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-MarginalEmissions Analysis (cont.): Factors Influencing

Changes in Methodology

Decreased natural gas prices

Increased coal and oil prices

Retirements of older electric generating uits

Increased renewable generation

Increased and cumulative energy savings fromenergy efficiency


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-MarginalEmissions Analysis (cont.): Examples

Three examples will be discussedA. Assume energy efficiency effects 500 MW

of generation

B. Existing: EE affects on the peak electricdemand days

C. Proposed: look at actual dispatch in anygiven hour

Showing all three since the earlier methodsmay be applicable to other regions

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A. ISO- NE Hourly NOxEmission Rates for a 500 MWGeneration Decrement from Peak with Elimination of

Hydro Generation

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0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

DecrementalNO

xEmissionRate

(lb/M

Wh)


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A. ISO-NE Hourly NOxEmission Rates for a 500 MWGeneration Decrement from Peak with No Elimination of

Hydro Generation

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0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

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DecrementalN

OxEmissionRate

(lb/

MWh)


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B. New England 20 Peak Days HourlyNOx Emissions

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0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

NOx(Tonsperhour)

Hour

NOx Emissions from EPA & ISO Data for(5) Peak Load Days per Year: 2005-2008

50719 50726 50727 50805 50811 60717 60718

60801 60802 60803 70726 70727 70802 70803

70807 80609 80610 80708 80709 80718

All time peak day

Peak Days:

Yr/Mo/Day


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B. Peak Hourly NOx vs. System Generationat Peak NOx Hour

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0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

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22,500 23,000 23,500 24,000 24,500 25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500

NOx(Tons)

Generation (MW)

Peak Hourly NOx Rate = 4 lbs/MW

(slope of line)


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30

9.35

3.773.00

1.49 1.460.54 0.47 0.24 0.10

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

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NOxR

ate-(lbs/MWh)

NOx EMISSIONS RATES for

ELECTRIC GENERATION UNITS IN CONNECTICUT

Coal

Residual Oil

Distillate Oil

Natural Gas

.

.


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Marginal EmissionsAnalysis (cont.):Analysis by CT DEP: Relation between Ambient

Temperature and Emissions Rate

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Temperature(F)

N

OxEmissions(tons

)

Daily NOx Emissions for Connecticut EGUsSorted by Total Daily NOx Emissions

(June 1, 2007 - September 15, 2007)

Diesel & Other Oil

Residual Oil

Pipeline Natural Gas

Coal

Hartford Max Temperature (F)


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B. Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Marginal Emissions Analysis (cont.)Marginal

Emissions Analysis -2010

On-Peak Off-Peak On-Peak Off-Peak

NOX 0.27 0.17 0.14 0.15 0.18

On-Peak Off-Peak

SO2 0.13 0.06 0.09

CO2 941 945 943

Ozone Season Non-Ozone Season

Annual

Annual Emissions (SO2and CO2)

Ozone / Non-Ozone Season Emissions (NOx)

Annual

Average

(All Hours)

Air

Emission

Annual

Average

(All Hours)

Air

Emission


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C. Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Marginal Emissions Analysis (cont.):Proposed

MEA Method .

1. Identify all marginal units for each hour in the year of interest.

2. Calculate the percentage share of each identified units emission contribution in

each hour.

3. Sum percentages from #2, organized by month and marginal unit.

4. Multiply with the unit ks Emissions Ratem(lb/MWh) associated with a specific

month.

5. Calculate #4 for all identified marginal units and sum those equivalent unit

emissions for the year.

6. Calculate the annual marginal emissions rate by dividing by the number of hours

in the year.


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C. Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Marginal Emissions Analysis (cont.): Results to be

Produced by Proposed Method .

% of Time Marginal by Fuel Type

Marginal Emission Rates (lb/MWh & lb/MMBtu)

NOX: Annual, On-Peak and Off Peak during Ozone andNon-Ozone Season

SO2: Annual, On-Peak and Off-Peak

CO2: Annual, On-Peak and Off-Peak

Marginal Heat Rate (MMBtu/MWh)


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.

Comparison with 2010 Emissions ReportOil & Gas Units NO

X

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

NOx All Hours

NOx Ozone Season On-Peak

NOx Ozone Season Off-Peak

NOx Non-Ozone Season On-Peak

NOx Non-Ozone Season Off-Peak

Emissions Rate (lb/MWh)

Oil & Gas Units Emitting Units All Marginal Units 2010 Emissions Report

,


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6. Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Stochastic Approach

Assesses impact of EE on actualgeneration without dispatch modeling

Uses 8760 hours from one year of

generation and actual dispatch Assumes future dispatch will behave

similarly to the year chosen

Apply quantity of EE to assess affect ongeneration

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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-StochasticApproach(Cont.): Connecticut Example


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-StochasticApproach (cont):Simplifying Assumptions for CT

Use 2005 load shape, grow load to 2020assuming similar weather patterns andfuel prices

Assume that Connecticuts affect on ISO-NE (and vice versa) are similar inproportion to Connecticuts share of the

regions load

M h d D i E i i S d


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Stochastic Approach (cont.): CT EE

Assumptions EE measures are applied across all hours EE programs reduce load by a constant

percentage

EE programs do not expire

EE measures are cumulative andcompounded

M h d D i E i i S d


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Stochastic Approach(cont.): Stochastic

Analysis Conclusions Simplifying assumptions facilitate analysis

but effect precision

The example discussed applies to

Connecticut for a particular time period.Your results will be different

EE programs are reducing NOx (and otherpollutant) emissions today. Ramping up

(all cost-effective EE) can achieve evenmore significant benefits


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7. Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Dispatch Modeling

Typically completed by utility (e.g. IRP),transmission planners, EPA (IPM is adispatch model)

Results are economically driven (least-costresources are dispatched first)

Uses historical dispatch to forecast futuredispatch based on input reference scenario

and sensitivities Unit by unit results

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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Dispatch Modeling (cont.)

Applies the same principles discussedearlier on stochastic, but for several years

Can also be done for a region (>one state)

Results include: costs, emissions, numberof hours each generating unit is expectedto run


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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Dispatch Modeling (cont.): Caveats

Critical variables: load growth assumption,fuel price and forecast, construction costs

EE is a dispersed resource with cumulative

attributes. Many models requiresimplifying assumptions to assess affects

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Methods to Determine Emissions Saved-Dispatch Modeling (cont.): Examples

For more details, below are just a fewexamples:

http://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&fil

ter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=false(link to several current and pastreports)

http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents

/suca/evaluation_guide.pdf http://www.4cleanair.org/EmissionsModelin

gPhaseIIFinal.pdf
http://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/suca/evaluation_guide.pdfhttp://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/suca/evaluation_guide.pdfhttp://www.4cleanair.org/EmissionsModelingPhaseIIFinal.pdfhttp://www.4cleanair.org/EmissionsModelingPhaseIIFinal.pdfhttp://www.4cleanair.org/EmissionsModelingPhaseIIFinal.pdfhttp://www.4cleanair.org/EmissionsModelingPhaseIIFinal.pdfhttp://www.4cleanair.org/EmissionsModelingPhaseIIFinal.pdfhttp://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/suca/evaluation_guide.pdfhttp://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/suca/evaluation_guide.pdfhttp://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/suca/evaluation_guide.pdfhttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=falsehttp://www.synapse-energy.com/cgi-bin/synapseProjects.pl?filter_type=Topic&filter_option=Displaced+Emissions&advanced=false


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Concluding Thoughts: Using Emissions Datato Your Advantage

Think about the emissions profile shownon the next slide

What factors do you think are driving loadincreases in Connecticut?

What do these tell you about ways inwhich the EE program might be structured

or prioritized?


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About RAPThe Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) is a global, non-profit team of experts thatfocuses on the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the powerand natural gas sectors. RAP has deep expertise in regulatory and market policiesthat:

Promote economic efficiency Protect the environment Ensure system reliability Allocate system benefits fairly among all consumers

Learn more about RAP atwww.raponline.org

Chris James: [email protected]

John Shenot:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Extra Slidesif time permits

The information gathered to determinethe emissions benefits of EE can also beused to calculate other non-energy

benefits Including the air quality and public health

benefits (and avoided costs) can allowadditional measures to be deemed cost-effective, and increase the potential forfuture energy savings


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CT Load Profile


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Analysis for Montville 5


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Emissions Analysis


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Stochastic Model Results


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CT NOx Emissions, 2% per year EE


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Scenario Analysis to Meet EmissionsReductions Requirement


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Air Quality and Health Benefits (1)

EPAs BenMAP model: calculate change inmorbidity and mortality fromimplementation of new policies

National Academy of Sciences: HiddenCosts of Energy

Epstein, et al Full Cost Accounting for

Lifecycle of Coal


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Air Quality and Health Benefits (2)

BenMAP: free, desktop model that air staffcan run. Little if any training required ifproficient with computers.

Hidden Cost: each kWh of coal posesaverage cost of 3.4 cents. Is as high as 12cents per kWh in some areas

Full Cost Accounting: total costs of coal

normalized to kWh produced range from9.36 to 26.89 cents per kWh


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Electric System and Reliability Benefits

EE has many energy related benefits

Energy efficiency, load management andclean demand response defer or avoid

need for new transmission and generation

Economic benefits include reducing thepeak prices of electricity in a given hour or

day


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Electric System and Reliability Benefits

Non-energy benefits were discussedearlier

Avoiding transmission and distribution

line losses: average is 6-8%. On peak days,such losses can be 20%

Hourly electricity prices can exceed $1000

per MWh on peak days. Reducing the peakalso reduces costs to consumers andutilities


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Most analyses of EE arewoefully incomplete.

Some look only atavoided energy costs.

Many include productioncapacity costs, but nottransmission or

distribution capacity.

Few include otherresource savings (water,gas, oil).

Very few make any effortto quantity non-energy

benefits.$0

$20

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Vermont Energy Efficiency Savings Value

Updated Externality and NEB Values

Risk

DTQ NEB

Other Fuel

O&M

Other Resources

Externalities

Avoided Reserves

Line Losses

Distribution Capacity

Transmission Capacity

Capacity

Energy

rap module no. 02b jamesshenot measuringaqimpactsofeemodule 2b nescaum 2012-09-06

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