Reasons to Be Optimistic about Living Today

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Rational Optimism

We are richer than ever before, with unparalleled GDP growth in recent decades...

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1951 1964 1976 1983 1991 1995 2002 2008

Africa

Asia

Latin America

Former USSR

East Europe

Western Offshoots

Western Europe

Real GDP over time in 1990 dollars by major world area; note that timescale is not lineair

Source: Angus Maddison Historical Statistics (www.ggdc.net), www.ourworldindata.org

Wealth

...rising much of our population out of the poverty that was considered normal for thousands of years...GDP per Capita, year 1

Source: Angus Maddison Historical Statistics (www.ggdc.net), www.ourworldindata.org

Above 25000

20000-24999

15000-19999

10000-14999

6000-9999

4000-5999

2000-3999

1000-1999

Below 1000

No data

Wealth

...into a state where poverty can theoretically be eradicated within the next 20 years*

Above 25000

20000-24999

15000-19999

10000-14999

6000-9999

4000-5999

2000-3999

1000-1999

Below 1000

No data

Source: Angus Maddison Historical Statistics (www.ggdc.net), www.ourworldindata.org

GDP per Capita, year 2008

* Prediction by the UN

Wealth

The pace of our growth keeps accelerating as well – doubling our world economy in years where it used to be centuries

...time it took to double the world economy...The type of society...

Pleistoceen hunter-gatherer society

Source: Robin Hanson, 2000; Superintelligence (2014), Nick Bostrom

Assuming a similar growth rate of the

economy as in the last 50 years will make us: •  4,8 times richer

than today in 2050 •  34 times richer

than today in 2100.

224.000 years

Farming society 909 years

industrial society 6,3 years

...and future predictions based on the trend

Wealth

Our life expectancy has increased more in the last century than in all of the previous evolution combined...

20

26 2825 26 26

31

49

67

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10.000 BC

(Neolithic age)

3300-1 BC

(Bronze, Iron age)

500-300 BC

(Classical Greece)

450-50 BC

(Classical Rome)

1700 1820 1900 1950 2010

Life expectancy

Source: Galor et al. (2007) The Neolithic Revolution and Contemporary Variations in Life Expectancy; www.ourworldindata.org; Frier (2001) More is worse: some observations on the population of the Roman empire; www.wikipedia.org; CIA The World Factbook

Factor 2,4 difference

Industrial Revolution

Life expectancy

...and our global population is expected to reach it’s plateau before 2050

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Actual Low fertility (est) Medium fertility (est) High fertility (est)

Source: UN, dep. of economic and social affairs, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision

Average annual rate of population growth

Life expectancy

Working hours have almost declined by half since the industrial revolution...

00

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1870 1913 1950 1973 1990 1998

Austria

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Norway

Sweden

United Kingdom

Spain

Australia

Canada

United States

Argentina

Brazil

Source: www.ourworldindata.com

Free time

...allowing us to have more free time than ever before...

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1900 1922 1975

Work

Free Time

Hours

Source: Stanley Lebergott, The Americans: An Economic Record (1984)

Average number of hours homemakers spend on work and free time

Free time

...which can free up time for things that are just fun to doTime spent watching ‘Gangnam Style’ on Youtube, in million man hours, data between July 2012 and June 2014

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Empire State Building

Burj Khalifa

Stonehenge

The Great Pyramid

Aircraft Carrier (USS Gerald R. Ford)

London Olympic Park

Wikipedia

Watching Gangnam Style (YouTube)

Source: adapted from The Economist, June 2014

Free time

Just over 5% of our population works over 50 hours per week

00%

05%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Rus

sia

Net

herla

nds

Sw

eden

Den

mar

k

Luxe

mbo

urg

Nor

way

Hun

gary

Finl

and

Can

ada

Irela

nd

Italy

Est

onia

Bel

gium

Gre

ece

Deu

tsch

land

Slo

veni

a

Sw

itzer

land

Spa

in

Slo

vaki

a

Pol

and

Cze

ch R

epub

lic

Por

tuga

l

OE

CD

Aus

tria

Fran

ce

US

A

Gre

at B

ritai

n

Bra

zil

New

Zea

land

Aus

tralia

Chi

li

Isra

el

Mex

ico

Turk

ey

2011 (or latest available)

Employees working long hours, % working more than 50 hours a week

Source: OECD, How’s Life? 2013

Free time

The literacy rate for the world has never been higher, with over 83% of the population literate

12

19 20 21 21 26

32

42 36

42

56 56

68

81 83

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1820 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: www.ourworldindata.org, Buring & Van Zanden (2009)

World literacy rate, % over time

World War II

Development

Human development – a composite measure of three key developmental trends - is growing rapidly all around the world...

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1870 1880 1890 1900 1913 1929 1938 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

OECD

Central & Eastern Europe

Latin America

China

India

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Human Development Index: composite measure of life expectancy, literacy and education, GDP growth

Source: Leandro Prados de la Escosura (2014), World Human Development: 1870-2007

Development

Everybody can start a business today – with the costs of a new tech startup a factor ~1000 lower than a decade ago...

5,000,000

500,000

50,000 5,000 0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2000 2005 2009 2011

Cost of launching a tech startup

Launching a tech startup became 1,000 times cheaper in just 11 years

Source: Mark Suster

Opportunities

...with the value of companies increasingly driven by intangibles, rather than the tangible assets companies possess

83% 68%

32% 20% 16%

17% 32%

68% 80% 84%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Tangible assets Intangible assets

Source: Ocean Tomo, LLC, 2015

Opportunities

We are less violent that ever before – with a chance of dying violently that is just a fraction of what it used to be

145010001000

970870

750740731

710590

550480

460450

420419

330320320

290240

230166160160

150140

7016.36.26.14.70.9

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600Kato (1840s, California)

Grand Valley Dani (New Guinea)Piegan (North American Plains)

Dinka (1928, N-E Africa)Fiji (1860s, Melanesia)

Chippewa (1825-1832, Minnesota)Telefolmin (1939-1950, New Guinea)

Hewa (New Guinea)Buin (Salomon Is.)

Mtetwa (1806-1814, South Africa)Goilala (Papua New Guinea)

Dugum Dani (1961, New Guinea)Manga (1949-1956, New Guinea)

Modoc (California)Auyana (1924-1949, New Guinea)

Gebusi (New Guinea)Murngin (Australia)

Tauade (1900-1946, New Guinea)Mae Enga (1900-1950, New Guinea)

Yanomama (1938-1958, Brazil)Yurok (California)

Mohave (1840s, California, Arizona)Yanomamo (1970-1974)

Tiwi (1893-1903, Australia)Germany (1900-1990)

Russia (1900-1990)Boko Dani (1937-1962, New Guinea)

France (1800-1899)Americas (2013)

World (2013)California (2013)

United States (2013)The Netherlands (2013)

Source: www.ourworldindata.org, UN Office on Drugs and Crime

Chance of getting killed in California today is ~238 times smaller than centuries ago

Number of violent deaths per year, per 100,000 individuals

Peace

The risks of nuclear warfare have gone down significantly in the last decades – with nuclear stock diminishing in all areas

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005

United States

Russia

Britain

France

China

Cold war, 1947-1991

Total warhead number down by 60%

Source: www.ourworldindata.org

Peace

We only have to worry about a few end-of-world predictions today, and they are usually wrong

Source: the Economist, 2012

St Martin of Tours

The Maya

Norse Ragnarok*

The letter of Toledo

Pope Innocent III S

Christopher Columbus

Sandro Botticelli

Martin Luther

Anabaptists of Münster

Nostradamus*

Isaac Newton

John Wesley

The prophet hen of Leeds

Millerites

Jehovah’s Witnesses

Pentecostal prediction

Charles Manson

Hal Lindsey

Jeanne Dixon

Heaven’s Gate

Pat Robertson

Edgar Whisenant

Harold Camping

250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250

Prediction

Doomsday

Revised doomsday

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 1800

2012

More than 20 end-of-

world predictions failed to be

right

* No doomsday date given

Peace

The number of democracies is on the rise, and has gone up specifically since the 1970s

0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 4 5 5 8 7 8 8 10 11 11 13

20 20 19 16

9

21 24 25

33 34 32 34 38

42

52

73 77

89 87

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: www.ourworldindata.org, Buring & Van Zanden (2009)

Amount of democracies globally, absolute numbers over time

World War II

Breakdown of the Soviet Union

Freedom

Compared to the 1970s there is also a strong shift towards post-materialistic values

Source: Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence, Inglehart & Welzel (2005)

% post-materialist minus % materialists

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

U.S. Britain France West Germany

Italy Netherlands

1970

2000

Freedom

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