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2014-2015 & 2015-2016Seasonal ReviewRA V Tropical Cyclone Committee, Sixteenth Session
Presented by:Luteru Tauvale Weather and Forecasting section
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Outline
� Number of Systems monitored.
� Observations and verifications
� Challenges
� Acknowledgments
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Summary of identify storms
2014-2015
2015-2016
5 Name Storms
8 Name Storms
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Seasonal Outlooks
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Storm Tracks
2014-20152015-2016
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Closest storms 2014-20151. TD 01 F Nov 23 – 26, 2014 2. TD 05 F Dec 23 – 29, 2014
3. TD 08 F Jan 27 – 30, 2014
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Closest storms 2015-20161. TC TUNI Nov 23 – Dec 2, 2015
2. TC ULA Dec 26 2015 – Jan 12 2016
3. TC VICTOR Jan 10-24, 2016
4. TC AMOS April13-25, 2016
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
1. TD 01 F Nov 23 – 26, 2014* No Special Weather bulletins been issued
Date Time Product
Monday 24 3.30 pm Coastal Waters Advisory issued
4.30 pm Wind advisory issued
Heavy Rain Warning issued
Thursday 27 4.30 am Wind Advisory Cancelled
Coastal Flooding Advisory Cancelled
Friday 28 4:30 pm Heavy Rain Warning cancelled
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
2. TD 05 F Dec 23 – 29, 2014* No Special Weather bulletins been issued
Date Time Product
Saturday 20 4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning issued
3.30 pm Coastal Waters Advisory Cancelled
Thursday 25 4.30 am Wind Advisory issued
Monday 29 4.30 am Wind Advisory Cancelled
Tuesday 30 4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning cancelled
Coastal Waters Advisory cancelled
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
3. TD 08 F Jan 27 – 30, 2015* No Special Weather bulletins been issued
Date Time Product
Friday 22 Jan 4.30 am Coastal Water Advisory issued
Monday 26 Jan 3.30 pm High Surf Advisory issued
Tuesday 27 Jan 3:30pm Heavy Rain Warning issued
Wednesday 28 Jan 3.30 pm Wind Advisory issued
Tuesday 3rd Feb 4.30 am Wind Advisory cancelled
3.30 pm High Surf Advisory cancelled
3:30pm Coastal Water Advisory cancelled
Wednesday 4th Feb 4:30am Heavy Rain Warning cancelled
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
TC TUNI Nov 23 – Dec 2, 2015
Date Time Product
Sunday 22 3.30 am Coastal Waters Advisory issued
4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning issued
Tuesday 24 3.30 pm Wind Advisory issued
Thursday 26 4.30 am Coastal Flooding Advisory issued
Friday 27 11.00 am First SWB issued
Sunday 29 5.00 pm Final SWB issued
Monday 30 4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning Cancelled
4.30 pm Wind Advisory Cancelled
Tuesday 01 3.30 pm Coastal Flooding Advisory Cancelled
3.30 pm Coastal Waters AdvisoryCancelled
* 10 Special Weather bulletins been issued
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
TC ULA Dec 26 2015 – Jan 12 2016
Date Time Product
Sunday 27 3.30 pm Heavy Rain Warning issued
Monday 28 3.30 pm Coastal Waters Advisory issued
4.30 am Wind Advisory issued
Tuesday 29 3.30 pm Wind Advisory Cancelled
Thursday 31 3.30 pm Wind Advisory issued
Sunday 03 (Jan) 4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning cancelled
Wind Advisory cancelled
Tuesday 05 (Jan) 3.30 am Coastal Waters Advisory cancelled
* No Special Weather Bulletin for this event
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
TC VICTOR Jan 10-24, 2016
Date Time Product
Wednesday 13 3.30 pm Coastal Water Advisory issued
Saturday 16 4.30 am Wind Advisory issued
Coastal Flood Advisory issued
Tuesday 19 4.30 am Coastal Flood Advisory cancelled
Wednesday 20 4.30 am Wind Advisory cancelled
Friday 22 3.30 am Coastal Water Advisory cancelled
* No Special Weather Bulletin for this event
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
TC AMOS April13-25, 2016* 12 Special Weather bulletins been issued
Date Time Product
Sunday 17 3.30 pm Heavy Rain Warning issued
Thursday 21 7.00 pm First SWB issued
Sunday 24 1.00 pm Final SWB (Cancellation) issued
4.30 pm Wind Advisory Cancelled
Heavy Rain Warning Cancelled
Coastal Flood Advisory Cancelled
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Observations and Verifications
TUNI ULA VICTOR AMOS
TD 01F 2014 TD 05F 2014 TD 08F 2015
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
1.TD 01F Nov 21 – 26, 2014
Date Time Product
Monday 24 3.30 pm Coastal Waters Advisory issued
4.30 pm Wind advisory issued
Heavy Rain Warning issued
Thursday 27 4.30 am Wind Advisory Cancelled
Coastal Flooding Advisory Cancelled
Friday 28 4:30 pm Heavy Rain Warning cancelled
* No Special Weather Bulletin for this event
Date Rain (mm) Wind (Knots)
21-Nov
22-Nov
23-Nov Salani - 190.0
24-Nov
25-Nov
Leauvaa - 81.4Afiamalu - 25
Nafanua - 31
26-Nov
Aopo 89 Mt-Talu - 32
Apia - 174.6 Afiamalu - 31
Nafanua -
160.2
Key
Less than 50mm
Less than 20knots
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
2.TD5F Dec 23 – 29 2014
Date Time Product
Saturday 20 4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning issued
3.30 pm Coastal Waters Advisory Cancelled
Thursday 25 4.30 am Wind Advisory issued
Monday 29 4.30 am Wind Advisory Cancelled
Tuesday 30 4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning cancelled
Coastal Waters Advisory cancelled
* No Special Weather Bulletin for this event
Date Rain (mm) Wind (Knots)
23-Dec Togitogiga - 105
Lufilufi - 100.5
Tiavea - 95.6
24-Dec Lemafa - 178
Salani - 171.8
Lufilufi -168.5
25-Dec
26-Dec Afimali - 32
Saoluafata - 30
27-Dec
28-Dec AWS08 - 74
Maota - 168
Vaiaata - 153.6
29-Dec Togitogiga - 68
Salani - 67.2
Key
Less than 50mm
Less than 20knots
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
3.TD 08F Jan 27-30, 2015
Date Time Product
Friday 22 Jan 4.30 am Coastal Water Advisory issued
Monday 26 Jan 3.30 pm High Surf Advisory issued
Tuesday 27 Jan 3:30pm Heavy Rain Warning issued
Wednesday 28 Jan 3.30 pm Wind Advisory issued
Tuesday 3rd Feb 4.30 am Wind Advisory cancelled
3.30 pm High Surf Advisory cancelled
3:30pm Coastal Water Advisory cancelled
Wednesday 4th
Feb4:30am Heavy Rain Warning cancelled
* No Special Weather Bulletin for this event
Date Rain (mm) Wind (Knots)
27-Jan Letui - 170.6 AWS26 - 25
Aopo - 150.2 Lemafa - 22
Asau - 129 Mt-Talu 20
28-Jan AWS26 - 22
Lemafa - 20
29-Jan AWS26 - 23
30-Jan Lepiu - 150 Lemafa - 21
Afimalu - 140.4 Afiamalu 20
Leauvaa - 132.2
Key
Less than 50mm
Less than 20knots
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
4.TC TUNI Nov 23 – Dec 2, 2015
Date Time Product
Sunday 22 3.30 am Coastal Waters Advisory issued
4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning issued
Tuesday 24 3.30 pm Wind Advisory issued
Thursday 26 4.30 am Coastal Flooding Advisory issued
Friday 27 11.00 am First SWB issued
Sunday 29 5.00 pm Final SWB issued
Monday 30 4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning Cancelled
4.30 pm Wind Advisory Cancelled
Tuesday 01 3.30 pm Coastal Flooding Advisory Cancelled
3.30 pm Coastal Waters AdvisoryCancelled
* 10 Special Weather bulletins been issued
Day Rain (mm) Wind (knots)
23-NovFaleolo - 229 Afimalu - 26
Leauvaa - 216.4
Nuu - 199.8
24-Nov
25-NovLepiu - 72
26-NovSamalaeulu - 149
Lepiu - 120
Afimalu - 118
27-NovTiavea - 209 Afimalu - 27
Afimalu - 140.8 Nafanua - 25
Nafanua - 139
28-NovAfimalu - 249.4 Afimalu - 35
Tiavea - 181.8 Vaiaata - 29
Vaiaata - 169.8 Lemafa - 27
29-Nov Lemafa - 38
Vaiaata - 33
Nafanua - 29
Key
Less than 50mm
Less than
20knots
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
5.TC ULA Dec 26 2015 – Jan 12 2016
Date Time Product
Wednesday 23 3.30 pm Coastal Waters Advisory issued
Saturday 26 3.30 am Coastal Waters Advisory Cancelled
Sunday 27 3.30 pm Heavy Rain Warning issued
Monday 28 3.30 pm Coastal Waters Advisory issued
4.30 am Wind Advisory issued
Tuesday 29 3.30 pm Wind Advisory Cancelled
Thursday 31 3.30 pm Wind Advisory issued
Sunday 03 (Jan) 4.30 am Heavy Rain Warning cancelled
Wind Advisory cancelled
Tuesday 05 (Jan)
3.30 am Coastal Waters Advisory cancelled
* No Special Weather Bulletin for this event
Day Rain (mm) Wind (knots)
27-DecAfimalu - 81.4
Nuu - 63
28-DecAopo - 173.8 Lemafa - 28
Vaiaata - 168 Afimalu - 27
Afimalu - 126.6 Nuu - 32
29-DecTiavea - 251 Afimalu - 33
Salani - 191 Lemafa - 32
Afimalu - 138.2
30-DecVaiaata - 59.4
31-DecSalani - 112.4
Afiamalu - 71.8
Tiavea - 52.6
1-Jan Afimalu - 29
2-JanAopo - 77.2
Letui - 69.4
Samalaeulu - 53.6
3-JanNafanua - 77.3
4-JanApia - 68.5
5-JanAfimalu - 53.5
6-JanTogitogiga - 98
Key
Less than
50mm
Less than
20knots
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
6.TC VICTOR Jan 10-24, 2016
Date Time Product
Wednesday 13
3.30 pm Coastal Water Advisory issued
Saturday 16 4.30 am Wind Advisory issued
Coastal Flood Advisory issued
Tuesday 19 4.30 am Coastal Flood Advisory cancelled
Wednesday 20
4.30 am Wind Advisory cancelled
Friday 22 3.30 am Coastal Water Advisory cancelled
* No Special Weather Bulletin for this event
Day Rain (mm) Wind (knots)
12-JanAfimalu - 69.4
13-Jan
14-Jan
15-JanMt Le Pue - 53 Vaiaata - 30
Afimalu - 29
16-Jan
17-Jan Afimalu - 31
Saoluafata - 29
18-JanAlafua - 53 Saolluafata - 27
Afimalu - 26
Vaiaata - 34
19-JanTuasivi - 57.3
20-Jan
21-JanAfimalu - 55
Key
Less than
50mm
Less than
20knots
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
7.TC AMOS April13-25, 2016
Date Time Product
Sunday 17 3.30 pm Heavy Rain Warning issued
Thursday 21 7.00 pm First SWB issued
Sunday 24 1.00 pm Final SWB (Cancellation) issued
4.30 pm Wind Advisory Cancelled
Heavy Rain Warning Cancelled
Coastal Flood Advisory Cancelled
* 12 Special Weather bulletins been issued Day Rain (mm)
13-Apr
14-AprTiavea- 182.6
Lemafa - 142
Salani - 131.4
15-Apr
16-Apr
17-Apr
18-Apr
19-AprAopo - 88.8
Afimalu - 62.8
Leauvaa - 62.6
20-Apr
21-AprSaoluafata - 96.6
Tiavea - 103.8
Salani - 75.2
22-AprLeauvaa - 156.8
Vaiaata - 153.4
Samalaeulu - 114.6
23-AprVaiaata - 347.4
Samalaeulu - 267.8
Apia - 163.0
Key
Less than
50mm
Less than
20knots
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Challenges
� The Accuracy and timeliness of forecasts.
� Communication/collaboration with relevant partners.
� The need for more research.
� Effective Early warning systems
◦ Collaboration with response agencies, media etc.
◦ Information dissemination ( inclusion of social media)
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Model performance
� ECMWF EPS is more skilful than the other EPS in predicting both the location and intensity of TC’s.
� It has been found that the deterministic provides more accurate forecasts during the first 3 days on average
� For each EPS system, its mean forecast is considerably the most skilful and more accurate forecast compared to the deterministic and the control forecast
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands
Acknowledgements
� WMO
� RSMC Nadi
� Met service NZ (Met Connect-SWFDDP)
� Global centers
� Regional Met Services
RAV TCC 16-Honiara, Solomon Islands