rc emerging challenges july2013
TRANSCRIPT
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National Academy of Agricultural Research ManagementHyderabad, AP, India
http://www.naarm.ernet.in
Emerging Challenges and Opportunities inEmerging Challenges and Opportunities inAgricultural Research ICAR perspective andAgricultural Research ICAR perspective and
ResponseResponse
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Driving forces of future agricultural research
agricultural scenario
food security and livelihoods security
market driven agriculture: research to innovation
sustainability concerns:
climate change - risk, adaptation, mitigation
natural resources conservation - soils, water, biodiversity, environment agricultural mechanization robotics, automation, precision agriculture
emerging sciences: nanotechnology, bioinformatics, systems biology, ecosystemsscience, biofuels; data driven science
intellectual property management and technology commercialization
agricultural knowledge systems networks of data, information, knowledge, institutions
Outline
ICAR response - new vision, mission, strategy, partnerships
Scientist response acquiring required competencies (KSA)
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Agri- outputs = f (policies, markets, technology/knowledge , stakeholder interests)
Agricultural scenario - changing context of production systems
Source: USDA, 2011
Multifunctionality of outputs :- commodities (food, feed, fibers, biofuels, medicinal products, ornamentals)
non-commodities (energy, environmental services)
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Agricultural Scenario economy
5.43%
GDP
growth 6 % 8 %
5.43%GDPgrowth 6 % 8 %
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Agricultural Scenario: Food demand (million tons)
5.43%GDPgrowth 6 % 8 %
Ramesh Chand - 2012
Pressure onfood
more food
diversifiedfood
better qualityfood
safe food
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Agricultural Scenario land resources for agriculture
Needed: Sustainable intensification of agriculture
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Agricultural Scenario water, energy, labour
Ramesh Chand - 2012
2050
5.4% 6% 8%
increase in Net area under
irrigation from current level of 63mha to 81 mha and gross irrigatedarea from 88 mha to 117 mha
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5.43%
6 %8 %
5.43%
6 %8 %
Required Increase in Resource Use Efficiency2010 to 2050
Needed:
four fold increase in land productivity
three fold increase in water productivity
doubling of energy use efficiency
six fold increase in labour productivity
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Agricultural scenario risks:oil prices, drought, pests, policies
Connections amongcommodities and prices
Corn-oil connections- Oil > up to $ 140 a
barrel led to corn for biofuel
-Financial speculation ingrains
Wheat prices affected by:
- Drought in Australia- outbreak of new wheatrust UG99- shift to livestock feed
Rice prices affected by:- Indias ban on exports- poor weather - consumer subsidies
Impact of 25% change in oil prices
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Agricultural scenario : food Inflation
Source:, Gulati, 2013
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Two
levels
Food security is the ability of all people at all times to accessenough food for an active andhealthy life.
Food security
Hunger indexSource:
IFPRI, 2008
over 40 percent inChina and India
Household
National
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Drivers of food insecurity and complexities
Source: Royal Society UK, 2009
Increasing population
Slowing of increases in agriculturalproductivity
Changing and convergingconsumption patterns
Growing demand for livestockproducts (meat and dairy),particularly those fed on grain
Increasing water and land scarcity
Adverse impacts of climate change
Growing demand for biofuels
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Food security productivity concerns yield gaps
Source Lobell et al, 2010
(Global)
Yield gaps
Source USDA, 2011
global yield variability is controlled by fertilizer use, irrigation and climate
management practices needed to close yieldgaps vary by region
meeting food security will require considerablechanges in nutrient and water management.
Mueller et al, 2012
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Source: Ramesh Chand, 2011
Food security productivity concerns TFP
India
increases in fertilizer use were dominantsources of productivity increase in greenrevolution years
increases in TFP raise efficiency of inputuse in later years
cause of concern in India is decliningTFP trends for major crops .
Source USDA, 2011
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Markets: Changing the perspective of agriculturalresearch
In the Agricultural Innovation System:knowledge generation and technologytransfer are based on complex
backward and forward linkagesbetween agricultural research,production, agro-industry andconsumers
Agricultural production systems are increasinglyaffected by:
markets/consumers/retail global integration through trade regulatory frameworks and ethical choices uncertainty of production, consumption, trade Increasing access to knowledge
National and global policy consensus : need to raise rural incomes agricultural research & technological
improvementswill continue to be prime drivers of ruralincomes
value addition in agriculture is largest untappedsource of income
Value addition links farmers with consumersand research with innovation
requires transforming NARS to NAIS
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In sectors likebiotechnologyinvestmentcapacities of private sector >>public sector
US $ million
Markets: Increasing share of private investment in research
Company Cropprotection
Seed/biotechnology
Total (R&D as %of sales)
Bayer 730 110 840 (11%)
Syngenta 500 310 810 (11%)
Monsanto 40 490 530 (10%)
Pioneer 215 312 527 (11%)
BASF 340 93 433 (10%)
CGIAR - - 428
ICAR (XI FYP) - - ~ 500
R in R&D
126
12280
79
51
257
Adapted from : Spielman, 2007
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Increasing role of private sector: Investments in the foodsector by the corporate world
Need to engage with the corporate system across the food chain
Source: Von Braun 2008
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Research focus: production-consumption chain
focus on commodities andvalue addition
add and accumulate valuefrom one link to next in thevalue chain
innovations at each linkfor improved competitiveness
addresses complex forwardand backward linkages alongvalue chain throughpublic-privatepartnerships (PPP)
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Research focus: livelihood security
Agricultural research
focus on forward and backwardlinkages among livelihoodopportunities, resources and factors atmacro and micro economic levels
partnerships with NGOs, Govt Depts
Fig Source:DFID
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Climate change
Fig Source :IPCC, 2001
Climate change (IPCC Definition): change in the state of the climate that canbe identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or thevariability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period,typically decades or longer
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The climate change process
Emissions
GHGs
Concentrationsof GHGs in atmosphere
Warming(climate forcing)
Climate change(Temp, rain, sea-level)
Impacts
Sources: transportation, energy, agriculture
(methane, Nitrous oxide, CO 2)
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Observed and simulated temperature change (IPCC, 2007)
state-of-the-art climate models, reproduce almostperfectly the last 125 years of observed temperatures.
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Predicting climate change and impacts
CONCENTRATIONSCO2, methane, etc.
HEATING EFFECTClimate Forcing.
IMPACTSFlooding, food supply, etc.
Scenarios frompopulation, energy,economics models
Carbon cycle,chemistry andhydrology models
Gas properties
Coupled climatemodels
Impacts models
CLIMATE CHANGETemp, rain, sea-level, etc.
EMISSIONS
f e e
d b a c k
s
Fig source: Srinivasan, IMD
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Scenarios IPCC (AR4)
40 scenarios grouped in 4 families - A1, A2, B1, B2
- A1: rapid growth in globalizedworld, high energy use
- A2: slow development, slowconvergence; use of renewable
energy- B1 : similar to A1;more emphasison energy conservation andenvironment (information, services)
- B2 : slow development,local solutions for sustainabledevelopment
corresponding GHG emission levels for each scenario
marker scenarios : for each family identified
IPCC AR 5 scenarios based onRepresentative ConcentrationPathways (RCPs) Radiativeforcing target levels in 2100
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Rise in CO 2 conc. and temperaturefor different IPCC scenarios
2005 - 2009, actual emissions above those for marker scenarios except A1B, butwithin range of the scenario envelope
reduction in emissions 2009 because of global economic downturn
by 2050, the global surface warming for the A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios is about thesame (1C above the reference)
temperature increases diverge significantly after 2050: A2 scenario results in highestincreases by the end of the 21 st century, about 3.5 C
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Climate projections- state-of-art
Wide range of temperature projections for SRESscenarios and RCPs of average temperatureincrease between 2090 and 2099 (Rogelj et al, 2012)
Source:Winkler et al,2011
CMIP5 provides access to a wide range of gridded data sets of climate model projections impact models are sector specific lack of integrated assessments impact models typically use only one GCM projections - account only for a limited range
of projections (outputs do not include climate model uncertainty) issues: integrated assessments; dealing with range of projections (climate uncertainty) ?
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Even With no climate change,
world prices for rice, wheat, maize,and soybeans will increase by62%, 39%, 63%, and 72%respectively between 2000 and2050, because of increasingpopulation and income growth,and biofuels
Climate change results inadditional price increases: 32 to37% for rice, 52 to 55% for maize,94 to 111% for wheat, and 11 to14% percent for soybeans.
Livestock are not directlyaffected, but effects of higher feedprices caused by climate changeare passed on to livestock
Climate change and food prices
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Calories Child malnutrition
Climate change impacts on food security
Nelson et al, 2009
prices
decline in calorie availability and per capita consumption of meat and cereals increase in prices affects household food security increase in child malnutrition
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IPCC Definitions
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable tocope with, adverse effects of climate change , including climate variability andextremes
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climatechange and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity , and its adaptive capacity
Adaptive capacity is the degree to which the system can modify itscircumstances to move to a less vulnerable condition
Systemic impacts: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity
Multiscale and multidimensional phenomena
Vulnerability is intrinsic to the system whereas adaptive capacity isdependent on both intrinsic and exogenous factors (technology,institutions, etc)
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IPCC framework for climate change assessments
Provides basicframework for researchplanning andidentification of competenciesfor capacitybuilding
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Basmati quality
India Impacts on agriculture
Milk production
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
C h a n g e
i n g r a
i n y
i e l d
, %
Minimum
Maximum
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Year
C h a n g e
i n g r a
i n y
i e l
Minimum
Maximum
Wheat
Rice
Source: Aggarwal, 2002
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Low adaptive capacity : districts inBihar (Jharkhand), Rajasthan,Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh,Maharashtra, Karnataka
Biophysicalvulnerability
Socialvulnerability
Technicalvulnerability
Adaptivecapacity
India Vulnerability and adaptive capacity
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Adaptation options
Agronomy: time of planting, changes in inputs, timing, water management
New crops/varieties : drought/heat resistant
diversification
Note:
Even with adaptation poverty and hunger may not decline:
T (+ 2C) + precipitation (+) 7% GDPAgri 7% T (+ 3.5C) + precipitation (+ 15% ) GDPAgri 2.5%
Poverty Hunger (Kavikumar, 2002)
climate change is global, whereas adaptation is intensely local
uncertainties in scaling down model scenarios to local scales
adaptation is seasonal and usually considered at 3 to 20 year time horizons,whereas climate change scenarios are for far future, 2050/2100
relevance of many current adaptation studies is therefore uncertain
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Mitigation strategies
crop improvement
Crop management : nutrient management, water management,rice management, land
use change, agro-forestry - BMPs can significantly reduce emissions (intermittentirrigation and drainage reduces methane emissions by 40%; conservation tillage,fertilizer management can reduce N 2O emissions)
Grazing land management
Management of Soil organic matter
Restoration of degraded lands Livestock management : livestock feed improvements and feed management, dietary
additives, animal breeding
Waste management
Carbon sequestration soil as carbon sink zero tillage, conservation tillage
make agriculture a part of solution to climate change problem
reduced GHGs can earn carbon credits (can be offset against subsidies)
needs better understanding of processes and high traceability of BMPs
Farm Mechanization: Key Driver of
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Farm Mechanization: Key Driver of agricultural Productivity
source: MM Pandey,2011
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Trend of power availability from different sources
Source; DAC - 2012
Farm mechanization across the production
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source: MM Pandey,2011
Tillage &seedbedPreparatio
n
Sowing/Planting
FertiliserApplicati
on
Irrigation
Harvesting
PostHarvesti
ng
Inter Cultivation
Plant Protection
Mechanized Solutions for whole chain
Farm mechanization across the productioncycle
Essential for:
for sustainable intensification of agriculture addressing scarcity of agricultural labour
climate change mitigation
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Natural resources: issues for research
focus on multi functional outputs of agriculture ecosystem services
productivity + externalities (degradation soil, water, air quality impacts/ loss of productivity)
improving input use efficiencies (precision agriculture)
systems approach for assessing and evaluating ecosystem services provided byagricultural systems
integration across scales field to regional to global scales to connect local and globalprocesses
focus on soil health and water quality
focus on carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation
integrating traditional knowledge
institutional frameworks for involving farmers, rural communities in NRM and engagingwith civil society organizations
E i h l i
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Emerging technologies
progress and convergence of molecular biology, nanotechnology, computer science,control theory, precision manufacturing and measurement technologies, enables in-depth
understanding of living organisms at system-level while grounding firmly to the molecular basis
integrating new sciences and technologies into agriculture to maintain flow of newtechnologies and stay globally competitive
Many new technologies are enabling in nature integrate into all sciences
Modern information technologies allow for collection and use of many different types of agricultural data including real time data:
from soils, climate, crop and market conditions, to consumer nutrition andpreferences, gene sequences and ecological variables
Data sets are massive and present challenges of accessibility, interoperability, andpersistence.
need for better data-management strategies addressing such issues as data storage,search algorithms, analytical methods, data sharing, and data visualization.
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Knowledge as factor of production S&T strategic focus
increasing importance of knowledge as a factor of production
timely knowledge interventions at all links in the agri-supply chain:- delivery of inputs- increasing productivities and efficiencies- lowering post harvest losses- processing farm outputs to higher value foods
systems for creating, processing and communicating knowledge
designing knowledge systems: networking data, information and institutions
IP management to increase Freedom to Operate (FTO) to address fragmentedownership of IP
engage to promote acceptance by society proactive ex ante regulatory and
health and environmental impact studies to design policies, tests and regulatoryframeworks
institutional arrangements for multidisciplinary and multi-institutionalengagement including with private sector
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ICAR 2050: Vision, mission, strategy
VisionIn 2050 some 1.6 billion people have adequate, nutritous, safe and healthy
food, and adequate fibre within limits of the natural system
MissionHarness power of science and education with a human touch for higher and sustainable agricultural production.
Strategic Focus farmer first green revolution 2 while enhancing natural resources input intensive
to knowledge intensive; focus on efficiencies innovation: transform NARS to NAIS
create globally competitive human resources foster linkages : PPP, national, international address climate change concerns
ICAR 2030 Harnessing Science
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ICAR 2030 Harnessing Science
Potential of genetic enhancement: yield, resistance, animalhealth and quality
Power of biotechnology, nanotechnology
Synergies of frontier sciences: ICT, GIS, GPS
Management of natural resources: IWM, INM, ICM, IPM
Agricultural diversification Value addition during post-harvest
Management of energy and agricultural waste
Management of biorisk
Carbon accounting
Institutions and policies
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Initiate new Research Platforms
Genomics
Seed
Climate Change
Water
Conservation Agriculture GM Foods
Health Foods
Feed & Fodder
Fibre
Diagnostics and vaccines
Precision Farming
Farm mechanization
Energy
Nanotechnology High value compounds
Socio economic research
E- extension and AKM
biodiversity
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Natural Resource Management
Climate Resilient Agriculture Dryland Agriculture
Hill and Island Agriculture
Conservation Agriculture
Organic Farming
Acid Soil Management
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Crop Science
Genomics
Stress-tolerant varieties Heterosis for developing hybrids
New generation designer crop plants
Bio-fortification of staple food crops
Pre-breeding for resistance/tolerance to biotic & abioticstresses
Transgenic against biotic stress
Microbial genomics in search of new genes
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Bio-fortification of staple food crops
Pre-breeding for resistance/tolerance to biotic & abiotic stresses Transgenic against biotic stress
Microbial genomics in search of new genes
Development of functional foods and nutraceuticals
Certification standards and procedures of transgenic and GM seed Seed production agronomy in relation to climate change
Transgenic research, Gene pyramiding, nano-technology researchto support conventional breeding
Non-products development from good grains using fermentationtechnology
Crop Science (contd..)
H i l
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Horticulture
Hybrid-oriented genetic resources promotional approach
Seeds/planting materials increased availability
Rejuvenation / Replacement of unproductive orchards
Insect pest and disease management
Enhancing water and nutrient use efficiency
Protected cultivation
Precision horticulture
Post-harvest management
A i l S i
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Animal genomics
Stem cell research for animal health and production
Cloning
Marker assisted selection of qualitative and quantitative traits
Nano-technology for drug delivery
Molecular diagnostics and vaccines
Establishment of DNA, embryo, Vety. Pathgens, rumen/dairymicrobe repositories
Transgenic for pharmaceutical application Functional & nutraceutical animal products
Animal Science
Fi h i
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Fisheries
Marine Fisheries Management
Mariculture
Breed Improvement
Diversification of Species
Water Management and Bioremediation
Feed Formulations
Health Management
A i l l E i i
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Agricultural Engineering
Customized farm implements and machinery
Conservation and precision agriculture
Reduction in post harvest losses and Post harvest management
Nanotechnology for enhancing input use efficiency and valueaddition of natural fibres
Utilization of surplus agricultural residues for rural power supply Entrepreneurship Development for agro service centres and custom
hiring of farm machinery and processing equipment
R i d C i
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Required Competencies
Competencies : measurable or observable knowledge, skills andattitudes critical to success in a role/function
Emphasis on different competencies will vary with stage of career
both institutional support and individual initiative are pre-requisites
discipline competencies personal effectiveness
managing information andknowledge business orientation
Leading and managing(people, work, change)
Building linkages includingglobal linkages
Relevant competencies for NARS
Critical career paths to leadership in ICAR
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Critical career paths to leadership in ICAR
Director General
National Professor
Principal Scientist/National Fellow
Senior Scientist
Scientist/ScientistSenior Scale
Director General
DDG/Director (NI)
Director/JD(NI)/ADG
Head of Division/PC
Principal Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist/ScientistSenior Scale Foundation
course
Pre-RMP
EDP for RMP
leaders are needed and exist at all levels no secret formula for leadership but competencies can be acquired leadership is a combination of strategic thinking and character
Skillbuilding
Refresher Course
R f h C t f k
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Refresher Course : competency frameworkDisciplinecompetencies
Personaleffectiveness
Managinginformation
Business orientation
Core research skills : research methodology
research prioritization
literature and patentsearch
developing winningresearch proposals
research projectmanagement
research impactassessment
scientific writing andpresentation
science trends
Cognitive skills :analysis,synthesis, criticalthinking, problemsolving
Personal
characteristicsself awareness &development
relating to others
relating to teams
relating toorganization
professional ethics
Awareness anduse of IT tools : documentation
communication
Multimedia andweb tools
data analysis(SAS)
networking
managing workflow
DatabasemanagementDBMS, GIS
Awareness of research/farming/businessenvironment :policies, scenario,perspectives, initiativesissues
Orientation toOrganizationaligning work to mission,strategy, processes
Business development:
participatory stakeholder engagement (PRA/FET)
intellectual propertymanagement
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Thank You