River Canyon CountryRural Tourism Studio

Community Tourism Visioning Event

David Beurle & Juliet Fox Future iQ Partners

info@future-iq.com

The Future Ahead for tourismin River Canyon Country

Committed groups

Committed groups

What is Scenario

Planning?

A tool best used to embrace an uncertain future

Explores a range of plausible futures

Allows for the consideration of complex and interrelated forces

A tool best used to embrace an uncertain future

Explores a range of plausible futures

Allows for the consideration of complex and interrelated forces

Strategic planning optimistic linear projections

Explore Trends and Implications for tourism

industry

Develop ‘Drivers’ Shaping

River Canyon Country

Develop four

plausible scenarios

Implications for the River

Canyon Country

Preferred Future and

action planning

Importance / Uncertainty matrixRated each driver on a 1 – 5 scale

Driver Importance Uncertainty

Program for the Evening

• Develop detailed narratives for four plausible scenarios for the future of River Canyon Country(based on clusters of key drivers).

• Explore the possible futures before and the consequences for River Canyon Country

Global Drivers of Change

• Global economic• Local economic development • Energy costs• Cost of living• Trained workforce• Population change• Aging• Community collaboration and

engagement• Urbanization• Access to Health Care• Values and lifestyles

• Values and lifestyles• The economic divide• Education• Governance, regulation and

government funding• Climate change & natural

disasters• Depletion of natural resources &

loss of biodiversity• Land use planning• Lodging developments• Transportation infrastructure• Access to information and

communication technology

Global economic volatility

Local Economic development

Energy costs

Cost of living

Trained Workforce

Population change

Aging population

Collaboration and engagement

Urbanization

Access to HealthCare

Values andlifestyles

Economic divide

Education

Government

Impact of climate change & natural disasters

Depletion Natural Resources

Land use Planning

Lodging developments

Transportation and infrastructure

Access to IT

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50

Unc

erta

inty

Importance

River Canyon Country Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers

Regional scenario shaping clusters of drivers

Ability to leverage human capacityValues and lifestylesCommunity collaboration and engagementLocal economic developmentTrained workforce

Tourism and economic infrastructureTransportation infrastructureLand use planningLodging developmentAccess to information and communication technology

Effective planning.

collaboration and actions that are anchored in

local values, aspirations and

skills.

Tourism and E

coninfrastructure

Fragmented and disjointed

efforts with conflicting priorities.

Ability to Leverage Human Capital

Lack of critical infrastructures to support viable tourism industry

Well resourced local tourism and economic infrastructures

Scenario name and brief description

Characteristics of the local society

Characteristics of the Tourism Economy

Environmental Characteristics

Regional dimensions to

consider

(What would tourism in River Canyon Country be like in 2030?)

• Population makeup/characteristics

• Distribution of population

• Landscape and visual impacts

• ‘Liveability’ and quality of life features

• Skills and educational profiles

• Industry and economic profiles

• Population makeup/characteristics

• Distribution of population

• Landscape and visual impacts

• ‘Liveability’ and quality of life features

• Skills and educational profiles

• Industry and economic profiles

Timeline for scenario formulation

Suggested Scenario Group timeline

6:30 Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)6:45 Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (30m)7:15 Small group report back (10m) 7:25 Short scenario name (5m)7:30 Return to main room ready to present

Resilience and vulnerability of scenarios

How would we respond under ‘shocks’?• What would happen to our communities and people?• What would our economy do?• Impacts on the environment?

Shocks?• There is an economic double dip..• Price of oil jumps dramatically

Context Content

Effective planning. collaboration and actions that are anchored in local values, aspirations and skills.

Tourism and E

coninfrastructure

Fragmented and disjointed efforts with conflicting priorities.

Ability to Leverage Human Capital

Lack of critical infrastructures

to support viable tourism

industry

Well resourced local tourism and economic infrastructures

Scenario A –Characteristics of the local society• XxxCharacteristics of the tourism economy• xxxEnvironmental characteristics• xxx

Scenario B –Characteristics of the local society• XxxCharacteristics of the tourism economy• xxxEnvironmental characteristics• xxx

Scenario C –Characteristics of the local society• XxxCharacteristics of the tourism economy• xxxEnvironmental characteristics• xxx

Scenario D –

Characteristics of the local society• XxxCharacteristics of the tourism economy• xxxEnvironmental characteristics• xxx

Tourism and E

coninfrastructure

Ability to Leverage Human Capital

Hijacked

Haiku Lou View

Adventur-mental

Jewel of Economic

Denial

River Canyon Country – Preferred Vision

River Canyon Country – Currently Heading

Tourism and E

coninfrastructure

Ability to Leverage Human Capital

Hijacked

Haiku Lou View

Adventur-mental

Jewel of Economic

Denial

RIVER CANYON COUNTRY – 2030 VISION

River Canyon Country in 2030 is a region that is engaged toward a common future with a clear shared identity. The community has worked hard to build on values of quality

education, health and creating an active lifestyle, and this has paid off in having a dynamic and high caliber workforce and strong social capital. This is reflected in how

our community organizations and volunteers work together in a coordinated and cohesive manner. This cohesion allows us to adapt and capitalize on new and emerging opportunities, while maintaining our strong community base. We value our people and

invest in creating opportunities for them to work, contribute and thrive in the region.

We have beautiful landscapes, parks, and natural vistas, which are now connected by a highly developed network of trails, by-ways and transport systems. We have a strong economic tourism infrastructure focused on leveraging our unique regional assets of

local food, outdoor recreation and cultural diversity and identity. Our thriving economy is built on our locally owned entrepreneurial businesses, and complemented by world-class

destinations. We are known worldwide for our authentic, family friendly and environmentally sustainable practices. We have become a renowned mecca for well

managed outdoor and eco-tourism and cultural experiences that make us the ‘must-do’destination for our many new and return visitors from across the world.

Key Action Areas

• Regional leadership structure• Internal outreach / local communication• Develop regional marketing strategy• Training to increase local knowledge