re-integration: don't fear "closed" systems
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DESCRIPTION
IT goes through cycles of being integrated (mainframes, Apple) or modular (WinTel, Web 2.0). This presentation uses a handful of examples to show that we're entering an integrated phase.TRANSCRIPT
Re-integration: Don’t fear “closed” systems
@cote
(I work at Dell, but this is my own content/opinion.) DevOpsDays Mountain View – June 29th, 2012
“There’s nothing new in IT.”
Integrated Modular
The current state of the cycle determines how you architect, build, deliver, support, and sell applications.
Mainframes to PC explosion
WinTel to iPad
(Illustrative – subject was actually using Linux.)
The Obvious One
Source: “The rise and fall of personal computing,” Horace Dediu, Jan 2012
Clie
nt/
mo
bile
/tab
let
Finally, a successful Linux desktop
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nt/
mo
bile
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ThinkPad + Ubuntu August, 2006
Apple + Apple Oct, 2010
The modular king goes integrated
Source: https://twitter.com/JoeTierney/status/215678004809039872/
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nt/
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bile
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let
Integrated Servers
“IT departments spend more than 75% of their time and resources on system deployment and management. The market is in need of new modular infrastructure platforms that are capable of supporting applications connected to a large number of users and devices.”
Co
nve
rged
Infr
astr
uct
ure
Dell vStart Cisco UCS IBM PureSystems HP Virtual/Cloud System
Source: “Converged Infrastructure Survey 2011,” IDC, Dec 2011.
Co
nve
rged
Infr
astr
uct
ure
Source: “Worldwide and Regional Server 2012–2016 Forecast,” IDC, May 2012
$239
$633
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2010 2011
Cisco UCS Sales ($M)
(Context: 2010 server market was $53.7B, 2011 was $56.6B)
UCS sales are going crazy
Use is “low,” but near doubling
Source: “Converged Infrastructure Survey 2011,” IDC, Dec 2011.
Co
nve
rged
Infr
astr
uct
ure
PaaS = + back office + ALM + delivery
Pla
tfo
rm a
s a
Serv
ice
Source: Dell Corporate Strategy, Nov 2011
PaaS apps have been growing
Pla
tfo
rm a
s a
Serv
ice
600,000
200,000 150,000
220,000
4,500
iOS AppEngine Heroku Force.com CloudBees
# of Apps as of Oct. 2011
For reference
Source: company websites
What’s $8B between friends? (Gratuitous analyst poking)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
451 $120.00 $267.00 $444.00 $709.00 $1,137.00
Gartner (Aug 11) $330.70 $512.40 $707.40 $927.30 $1,179.60 $1,463.80 $1,755.00
Gartner (June 11) $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,800 $2,000 $2,400.00
Forrester Private $31.34 $65.00 $134.34 $275.81 $558.60 $1,156.68 $2,280.03 $4,140.28
Forrester Public $49.52 $118.76 $308.02 $820.39 $2,081.09 $4,378.52 $7,391.30 $9,801.55
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
($M
)
PaaS Forecast Comparisons ($M)
NOTE: Forrester is more inclusive of existing appdev/middleware TAM & SaaS take. Gartner drops forecasts between June 2011 and August 2011.
Source: analyst cloud forecasts available in 2011
Pla
tfo
rm a
s a
Serv
ice
My friends suck(ed)
Web
2.0
vs.
Fac
ebo
ok
Source: Way Back Machine, flickr.com in Feb 2005
Now I suck
Web
2.0
vs.
Fac
ebo
ok
“Walled gardens,” sure
Locked into technology stacks $$$$$$
“One throat to choke” = One BIG check to write $$$$$$
Slow access to innovation
…built on open technologies
Source: http://redmonk.com/sogrady/2012/06/13/new-relic-stack-data/
…with open APIs
Source: http://blog.programmableweb.com/2011/01/03/api-growth-doubles-in-2010-social-and-mobile-are-trends/
IT gets incrementally better
Integrated
Modular
Integrated
Closed
Open
Open-ish
Thanks! @cote
http://www.DrunkAndRetired.com
http://www.dell.com/sputnik