r.e. smalley’s view of humanity’s top ten problems for the next 50 years …
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R.E. Smalley’s view of Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for the next 50 years …. ENERGY WATER FOOD ENVIRONMENT POVERTY TERRORISM & WAR DISEASE EDUCATION DEMOCRACY POPULATION. … that was the view in 2005 … and it’s much more sobering today. The Biggest Challenge. Energy - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
R.E. Smalley’s view of Humanity’s Top Ten
Problems for the next 50 years …
1. ENERGY2. WATER3. FOOD4. ENVIRONMENT 5. POVERTY6. TERRORISM & WAR7. DISEASE8. EDUCATION9. DEMOCRACY10. POPULATION
… that was the view in 2005 … and it’s much more sobering today
EnergyFor 1010 People
The Biggest Challenge
• At MINIMUM we need 10 Terawatts (150 M BOE/day)
from some new clean energy source by 2050
• It’s got to be cheap.
• But, not with current technology.
World Energy Millions of Barrels per Day (Oil Equivalent)
300
200
100
01860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100
Source: John F. Bookout (President of Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy” International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985. Episodes, vol 12, 257-262 (1989).
165,000 TWof sunlighthit the earth
Free!
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OilCoa
lGas
Fission
Biomas
s
Hydro
electr
ic
Solar,
wind, g
eothe
rmal
0.5%
Source: BP & IEA
2004
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OilCoa
lGas
Fusio
n / F
issio
n
Biomas
s
Hydro
electr
ic
Solar,
wind
, geo
therm
al
2050
The ENERGY REVOLUTION (The Terawatt Challenge)
14.5 Terawatts
220 M BOE/day 30 - 60 Terawatts450 - 900 MBOE/day
The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = OIL 21st Century = ??
Slide from: R. E. Smalley, Rice University
35 ZJ/0.2 ZJ/yr =175 yr
19 ZJ/0.2 ZJ/yr = 95 yr
8 ZJ/0.18 ZJ/yr = 44 yr
2005 Oil consumption was 0.18 ZJ/yr = 44 yr
Remaining Oil Resources
15/86000= 0.017%
2008 Total World Energy Consumption474 EJ(1018 J = 0.5 ZJ)/yr= 133 Petawatt•hr(132.8×1015 Wh)=~15 TW
Available renewable energy
US demand for Energy
에너지
• 에너지 : 일을 할 수 있는 능력- 에너지의 종류 : 운동 에너지 , 퍼텐셜
에너지 , 화학 에너지 , 전기 에너지 , 열에너지 등
- 에너지의 단위 : J(joule) 을 사용• 일과 에너지의 관계- 물체에 일을 해 주면 에너지 증가- 물체가 일을 하면 에너지 감소
에너지 단위 -2
• 1 barrel (bbl) of crude oil = 42 gallons = 6.12 x 109 joules
• 1 MToe = million tons of oil, equivalent = 1013 joules
Commercial Energy Use & GNP
GROSS NATIONAL PROCUCT($US/CAPITA)
EN
ER
GY
CO
NS
UM
PT
ION
(106
BT
U/Y
EA
R/C
AP
ITA
)
Commercial Energy Use & GNPG
RO
SS
DO
ME
ST
IC P
RO
CU
CT
($U
S/C
AP
ITA
)
ENERGY CONSUMPTION(kW/CAPITA)
White’s Law
“Culture advances as the quantity and quality ofenergy used increases. This relationship can be
captured formally as an equation.”
C = k x E x TLeslie White, 1973
C = cultureE = energyT = technologyk = scaling (efficiency) constant
최근 국제유가 변동추이 (2003 – 2007)
(한국의 에너지 소비 석유환산)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010YEAR
(100
0 TO
E)
에너
지
최종에너지계석탄석유도시가스전력
신재생 및 기타
U.S. LOWER-48 OIL PRODUCTION PEAKED & DECLINED
Production of a non-renewableresource (Hubbert, June 1956)
Resource DepletionHubbert (1956)
production would begin with exponential growth, then plateau, then decline (symmetrically) as in bell curve:
Annual Production Scenarios with 2% Growth Rates and Different Decline
Methods
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery
Probability Ultimate Recovery(BBs)
Low(95%) 2,248
Mean (expected Value)
3,003
High(5%) 3,986
Wind Turbines
Country Windpower capacity (MW)
China 44,733
United States 40,180
Germany 27,215
Spain 20,676
India 13,066
Italy 5,797
France 5,660
United Kingdom
5,204
Canada 4,008
Denmark 3,734
Top 10 windpower capacity countries(2010)
참고 : 한국의 총 발전설비용량 76,078MW(2010)
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ren2006.png
Total renewables supply experienced an annual growth rate of 2.3% over the last 33 years, marginally higher than the annual growth of 2.2% in TPES. However, the “other” category in Figure 2 (also referred to as “new” renewables and including geothermal, solar, wind, etc.) recorded a much higher annual growth of 8.2%. Due to a very low base in 1971 and to recent fast-growing development, wind experienced the highest increase (+48% p.a.) followed by solar (+28% p.a.).
Photovoltaics: costs have declined by two orders of magnitude…
Nemet, G. F. (2006). "Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics.“ Energy Policy 34(17): 3218 - 3232.
PV system prices
The Solar Market in Kenya
–Use of solar emerged in 1980’s -lessons from two decades of experience
–Market is largely unsubsidized
the world's highest household solar ownership rate with roughly 30,000 small (20 to 100 watt) solar power systems sold per year.
Drive Train
Loss 6
Aerodynamic 3
Standby17
Engine Loss62
Fuel 100 1
9
13 Rolling 4
Braking 6
Accessories 2
Drive Train
Loss 5
Aerodynamic 11
Standby4
Engine Loss69
Fuel 100 2
5
20 Rolling 7
Braking 2
Accessories 2
Vehicle
Efficiency
Internal combustion engine
η = 1 – (Tcold/Thot)
Octane Rate
MTBE
Alternative Fuel Engine
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Advanced Vehicles
Volkswagen One-Liter Car Aptera Electric/Hybrid
Advanced Vehicles
Volkswagen L1 Diesel-Electric Car
48 MPG city/45 highway/46 combined99mph top speed, 0-60mph 14.2sec,two-cylinder, 800cc, diesel-electric hybrid engine,380kg carbon fibre and aluminium body
80 km/l on the combined cycle,39g CO2/km
Toyato Prius