BMO ETF Portfolio Strategy Report

BMO EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDSTh i rd Quar ter 2013

7/5/2013

5/1/2013

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In this report:

Recent Developments ................1

Things to Keep an Eye on ...........2

Changes to the Portfolio Strategy ......................3

Stats and Portfolio Holdings ....................................4

Portfolio Characteristics.............5

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly ..............................6

All prices or returns as of market close on July 5, 2013, unless otherwise indicated.

Alfred Lee, CFA, CMT, DMS Vice President, BMO ETFsPortfolio Manager & Investment StrategistBMO Asset Management Inc.alfred.lee@bmo.com

In this report, we highlight our strategic and tactical portfolio positioning strategies for the third quarter using various BMO Exchange Traded Funds. Our key strategy changes are outlined throughout the report and in our quarterly outlook on page six.

• The major storyline that drove markets this quarter was the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) would look to moderate or “taper” its current US$85 billion per month bond buying program. Given that U.S. monetary policy either directly or indirectly drives the interest rate policy of other countries, yields, as a result of the expectation, rose globally. The U.S. ten-year treasury bond yield rose 111 bps to 2.74% from May 1 (the May Federal Open Market Committee “FOMC” meeting) to July 5. The Canadian ten year bond saw a similar jump rising 87 bps over the same time horizon to 2.55% (Chart A).

• It should be noted, however, that the tapering by the Fed of its bond buying does not mean the end of the program altogether. Additionally, interest rates are expected to remain low, with the expectation that the U.S. will maintain its current overnight rate level until 2015. It is important to remember that it is a positive to the overall economy that the Fed is hinting at tapering, as it suggests the economy is no longer as reliant on the central bank’s stimulus measures.

• Over the quarter, U.S. equities continued to outperform with the S&P 500 Composite’s 2.9% total return in the second quarter outpacing the 0.8% and -4.1% total return of the S&P/TSX Composite Index and MSCI World Index respectively. Volatility in equities returned momentarily with the concern over the Fed’s tapering and continued to rise after the Fed confirmed the possibility that the tapering could come as early as late-2013. Volatility however abated to end the quarter as market conditions later normalized.

• In light of the concerns for higher interest rates, the U.S. Treasuries curve took on a parallel shift, with points along the term structure rising in yield. The Canadian federal yield curve also made a similar shift (Chart B), putting significant pressure on income-oriented assets, as those assets tend to be more sensitive to interest rate changes. All of equities, bonds and commodities were negatively impacted, although certain sectors within those asset classes were less affected.

• Despite the skittishness in the markets to end the quarter, equity market volatility remained reasonably low. The CBOE/S&P Implied Volatility Index (VIX)1 rose from 12.7 on March 31, to 16.9 to end the second quarter and the Canadian based S&P/TSX 60 VIX Index (VIXC) rose 11.7 to 15.0. The steepening of the term structure for VIX futures also appeared to be moderate with September 2013 VIX futures rising only 30bps to 18.75. We reiterate that rising rates signal an improving economy and extreme volatility would not be justified.

• Since early May of 2011, the U.S. dollar has been strong relative to most major currencies, with the U.S. dollar index gaining 15.8% since that time. This gain has been due to two reasons, improving economic data, particularly with U.S. real estate and unemployment and other major currencies such as the Japanese yen and our own Canadian dollar have been weaker. Should tapering concerns lead to higher long-term rates in the U.S., relative interest rates between the U.S. and other countries may narrow, leading to a further tailwind for the greenback. Therefore, U.S. assets, which we have recommended investors to overweight, could potentially provide an additional currency return.

The Taper Tantrum

Chart A: A Rise in Sovereign Yields Chart B: The Canadian Yield Curve Has Shifted Upwards

Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg

Portfolio Strategy Report – Third Quarter 2013 2

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Things to Keep an Eye on...

Three quarters ago, we recommended that investors consider U.S. banks to gain exposure to the recovering U.S. housing market. Since then, economic data has suggested that the housing industry south of the border continues to gather momentum. The S&P/Case Shiller 20 City Home Price Seasonally Adjusted Index2 is up 12.0% year-over-year and mortgage defaults are also on the decline. Several weeks ago however, we saw the spread between the average 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. and 30-year U.S. treasury yield (“Spread”) temporarily widen. While this may cause a short-term boost in mortgage refinancing, it is important for both the Spread and the absolute mortgage rate to remain low to ensure the ongoing U.S. housing recovery.

Recommendation: The BMO Equal Weight U.S. Banks ETF (ZUB) is a way to gain exposure to the recovering housing industry in the U.S. Our recommended weight for this ETF in our strategy remains at 3.0%. We believe the industry will continue to strengthen and rising dividends and shares buy-backs will be an ongoing theme in the industry.

As aforementioned, the yield curve has undergone a significant shift over the last eight weeks, making interest rate-risk a tactical theme. Interest rate expectations have taken a new direction as inferred by the overnight indexed swap (OIS) market, whereas it indicated a miniscule 0.20% probability of the overnight lending rate rising from 1.0% to 1.25% by the December 4 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) back on May 1, the OIS market is now indicating a 17.5% chance that we will see a quarter-rate hike by that same meeting.

Recommendation: Whether rates move higher by year’s end will be determined by the strength of the economic recovery over the next several months. We do believe that the long-term secular trend of overall low interest rates and aging demographics will put yield-oriented assets in high demand. There has, however, been a key inflection point in the market. Cyclical-oriented areas, which have lagged the market since the market bottom in 2009, tend to be less interest rate sensitive and benefit from a stronger economy. As a result, we continue to recommend key tactical positions in areas such as technology and industrials to complement yield-oriented areas.

Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg

Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg

Last quarter, we eliminated our positions in emerging market bonds and precious metals given both the macro-economic concerns and technical weakness in these areas. At that time, we believed emerging markets to be overbought, putting a compression on overall yields. Our concern for gold was that outside of seasonal trends, there were few, if any, reasons to own gold over the coming quarters. These decisions proved to be timely, given the 10.7% and 23.5% sell off in the Barclay’s Capital Emerging Markets Tradable USD Sovereign Bond Index and gold bullion respectively since our last quarterly report.

Recommendation: The recent sell-off in emerging market bonds has now made the asset class attractive, as yields have risen. We are keeping an eye on emerging market bonds and believe there may be a buying opportunity for more yield-oriented investors. The BMO Emerging Market Bond Hedged to CAD Index ETF (ZEF) is an efficient way for investors to access the asset class. Although gold tends to perform well in July and August, we are less constructive on the precious metal for the time being. Gold has been used as a hedge against a stronger U.S. dollar, inflation and macro-risks and all three of those risk factors are remarkably more muted compared to even a year ago.

Source: Barclays Capital Inc. (Using month end yield to worst for the Barclays Capital Emerging Markets Tradable USD Sovereign Bond Index)

Portfolio Strategy Report – Third Quarter 2013 3

Changes to Portfolio StrategyAsset Allocation:

• We continue to believe that the yield curve provides some of the best insights in terms of the allocation of capital towards various asset classes. Over the last two quarters we have been increasing our allocation to equities and also have been increasing our exposure to more cyclical areas within both stocks and bonds. For the upcoming quarter, we continue to implement this strategy, but we expect market uncertainty over the first month, as we see a repricing of financial assets in response to the Fed’s plan of tapering its bond buying program. We believe that yield remains a secular theme and our strategy is to combine key tactical cyclical areas in equities with a yield oriented core. Our bond strategy is to reduce exposure to longer duration bonds and increase exposure to credit through corporate bonds. In terms of commodities and commodity-related equities, we remain underweight.

Fixed Income:

• Canadian government bonds, which are pure interest rate plays, have become more volatile in recent weeks. Moreover, since last November, federal bonds have become more correlated with equities, given the sharp rise in yields. It can be argued, that the diversification properties of longer duration Canadian government bonds would be reduced should its recent higher correlation with equities persist. In order to both increase our exposure to equities and also reduce the duration of our strategy, we are decreasing our exposure to the BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF (ZAG) by 3.0%.

Equities:

• Although yield oriented assets tend to be more rate-sensitive, we believe interest rates will remain low, in the absence of inflation. Furthermore, unemployment in the U.S. remains well above the Fed’s goal of 6.5%. The ongoing secular theme of aging demographics and

the paltry yield of government bonds should continue to drive the demand for companies paying a sustainable dividend. As we remain bullish on U.S. equities, we are initiating a 8.0% position in the BMO U.S. Dividend ETF (ZDY). This ETF is an effective way for investors to gain exposure to large cap U.S. companies that have had flat or growing dividend growth rate over the last three years and also a sustainable dividend payout ratio. Similar to the other U.S. oriented ETFs in our strategy, we are choosing to leave our USD/CAD exposure unhedged. The greenback has been stronger than other major currencies year-to-date, and the currency exposure of the ETF will provide further potential diversification to the overall portfolio.

• Over the last several weeks, Canadian real estate investment trusts (REITs) have experienced a significant sell-off. From a technical standpoint, that industry remains oversold, with a relative strength index (RSI)3 measure of 40.9. From a fundamental perspective, we recognize that the valuation of REITs has become rather stretched in the last several years. The S&P/TSX Canadian REIT Index has a price-to-cash flow (P/CF) of 13.1x, well above its five-year average of 12.0x. Given, the frothy valuations of the industry and its high sensitivity to rising interest rates, REITs would likely be an area where investors would first take profit as the Fed moves towards tapering. We are thus trimming our position in the BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight REIT Index ETF (ZRE), by 2.0% to 3.0% despite the poor timing from a technical perspective.

• We believe the global energy sector may outperform should interest rate risk prove to be an ongoing theme. However, the 24.4x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P/TSX Energy Index trades at a significant premium to the 12.4x P/E ratio of the S&P 500 Energy Index. Lower oil prices may mean lower margins of oil sand related companies. As a result, we are eliminating our 3.0% position in the BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index ETF (ZEO).

Sell/Trim Ticker (%) Buy/Add Ticker (%)

BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF ZAG 3.0% BMO U.S. Dividend ETF ZDY 8.0%

BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight REIT Index ETF ZRE 2.0%

BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index ETF ZEO 3.0%

Total 8.0% Total 8.0%

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Most Assets Declined Over the Quarter The U.S. Dollar Continues to Strengthen

Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg Source: BMO Asset Management Inc., Bloomberg

Portfolio Strategy Report – Third Quarter 2013 4

Ticker ETF Name Position Price MER Weight (%)

90-Day Vol

Volatility Contribution

Yield (%)*

Yield/Vol

Fixed Income

ZAG BMO AGGREGATE BOND INDEX ETF Debt Core $15.29 0.20% 18.0% 4.2 8.6% 2.1% 0.51

ZIC BMO MID-TERM U.S. IG CORPORATE BOND INDEX ETF Debt Tactical $14.35 0.25% 7.0% 3.7 2.9% 2.8% 0.75

ZCM BMO MID CORPORATE BOND INDEX ETF Debt Tactical $15.50 0.30% 10.0% 5.1 5.9% 2.9% 0.56

Total Fixed Income 35.0% 17.5%

Equities

ZLB BMO LOW VOLATILITY CANADIAN EQUITY ETF Equity Core $18.61 0.35% 11.5% 11.2 14.8% 2.8% 0.25

ZDV BMO CANADIAN DIVIDEND ETF Equity Core $16.03 0.35% 9.0% 11.8 12.2% 5.6% 0.47

ZSP BMO S&P 500 INDEX ETF Equity Core $19.01 0.15% 8.0% 11.2 10.3% 2.2% 0.19

ZEM BMO MSCI EMERGING MARKET INDEX ETF Equity Core $14.01 0.55% 3.0% 20.2 7.0% 2.3% 0.11

ZUB BMO EQUAL WEIGHT U.S. BANKS HEDGED TO C$ ETF Equity Tactical $18.05 0.35% 3.0% 17.2 5.9% 2.1% 0.12

ZWB BMO COVERED CALL BANKS ETF Equity Tactical $14.29 0.65% 3.0% 10.5 3.6% 6.4% 0.60

ZIN BMO S&P/TSX EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS INDEX ETF Equity Tactical $17.69 0.55% 3.0% 14.2 4.9% 2.9% 0.21

ZRE BMO EQUAL WEIGHT REITS INDEX ETF Equity Tactical $19.04 0.55% 3.0% 14.1 4.8% 5.4% 0.38

ZDY BMO U.S. DIVIDEND ETF Equity Core $16.03 0.30% 8.0% 12.1 11.1% 4.3% 0.35

Total Equity 51.5% 74.7%

Non-Traditional/Hybrids

ZHY BMO HIGH YIELD U.S. CORP BOND HEDGED TO C$ INDEX ETF Debt Tactical $15.26 0.55% 5.5% 9.0 5.7% 5.4% 0.59

ZPR BMO S&P/TSX LADDERED PREFERRED INDEX ETF Equity Tactical $14.73 0.45% 7.0% 2.6 2.1% 4.4% 1.70

Total Alternatives 12.5% 7.8%

Total Cash Tactical 1.0% 0.6 0.1% 1.3%

Portfolio 0.33% 100.0% 8.7 100.0% 3.4% 0.39

Ticker Top Holdings Weight

ZAG BMO AGGREGATE BOND INDEX ETF 18.0%

ZLB BMO LOW VOLATILITY CANADIAN EQUITY ETF 11.5%

ZCM BMO MID CORPORATE BOND INDEX ETF 10.0%

ZDV BMO CANADIAN DIVIDEND ETF 9.0%

ZSP BMO S&P 500 INDEX ETF 8.0%

ZDY BMO U.S. DIVIDEND ETF 8.0%

ZIC BMO MID-TERM U.S. IG CORPORATE BOND INDEX ETF 7.0%

ZPR BMO S&P/TSX LADDERED PREFERRED INDEX ETF 7.0%

ZHY BMO HIGH YIELD U.S. CORP BOND HEDGED TO C$ INDEX ETF 5.5%

ZEM BMO MSCI EMERGING MARKET INDEX ETF 3.0%

ZUB BMO EQUAL WEIGHT U.S. BANKS HEDGED TO C$ ETF 3.0%

ZWB BMO COVERED CALL BANKS ETF 3.0%

ZIN BMO S&P/TSX EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS INDEX ETF 3.0%

ZRE BMO EQUAL WEIGHT REITS INDEX ETF 3.0%

Cash 1.0%

Core 57.50%

Tactical 42.50%

Cash

Alternatives

Equities

Fixed Income

Stats and Portfolio Holdings

Investment Objective and Strategy: The strategy involves tactically allocating to multiple asset-classes and geographical areas to achieve long-term capital appreciation and total return by investing primarily in exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Cash (1%)

Non-Traditional (12.5%)

Equities (51.5%)

Fixed Income (35%)

*Note: Bond yields are based off of yield to maturity. **Cash is based off of 3-month Canadian Dealer Offered Rate (CDOR).

Portfolio Strategy Report – Third Quarter 2013 5

Portfolio Characteristics

Financials 32.8%

Health Care 4.2%

Industrials 10.3%

Information Technology 6.0%

Materials 2.2%

Telecommunication Services 5.0%

Utilities 10.3%

Consumer Discretionary 9.1%

Consumer Staples 8.5%

Energy 11.7%

Canada 64.5%

United States 31.5%

Emerging Markets 3.0%

Cash 1.0%

Federal 18.4%

Provincial 12.5%

Investment Grade Corporate 55.4%

Non-Investment Grade Corporate 13.6%

Weighted Average Term 8.2

Weighted Average Duration 6.2

Weighted Average Coupon 4.8%

Weighted Average Current Yield 4.4%

Weighted Average Yield to Maturity 3.5%

Equity Sector Breakdown

Regional Breakdown (Overall Portfolio)

Fixed Income Breakdown

Utilities

Telecommunication Services

Materials

Information Technology

Industrials

Health Care

Financials

Energy

Consumer Staples

Consumer Discretionary

Cash

Emerging Markets

United States

Canada

Weighted Average Current Yield: The market value weighted average coupon divided by the weighted average market price of bonds.

Weighted Average Yield to Maturity: The market value weighted average yield to maturity includes the coupon payments and any capital gain or loss that the investor will realize by holding the bonds to maturity.

Weighted Average Duration: The market value weighted average duration of underlying bonds divided by the weighted average market price of the underlying bonds. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates.

*Regional Breakdown includes equities, fixed income and alternative sleeves.

Portfolio Strategy Report – Third Quarter 2013 6

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Conclusion: The market sell-off leading up to and after the June U.S. Federal Reserve Board meeting was across all major asset classes. Although the market is forward looking and is reacting to the notion of an eventual withdrawal of stimulus, rather than the absolute change in amount of the bond buying program, the drop in the market is largely unwarranted. One indicator that we frequently mention, the NYSE Margin Debt Level4, is currently above pre-2008 crisis highs. The sell-off was likely exacerbated by investors covering their margin for carry-trades, which can explain the 7.3% decline of the Deutsche Bank G10 Currency Future Harvest Index5 since May 21. Asides from this minor deleveraging episode, the underlying economic picture continues to improve and fundamentals remain largely attractive.

Global-Macro/Geo-Political Fundamental Technical

Good

• TheconsiderationbytheFedtotaperitsbondbuying plan is an indication that it sees an improvement in the overall economy.

• Highereventualrateswouldleadtoanormalizationin the markets and a potential end to the “risk-on,risk-off”behaviour.Anormalizationinthemarket would lead to greater alpha generation opportunities.

• TheTankanSurveyshowedthatlargemanufacturersin Japan were the most optimistic in over a year and a half.

• Thevaluationinyieldorientedareashasbecomemore attractive given the recent market sell-off. Many preferred shares for example are now trading at discounts to its par value.

• Creditspreadshavewidenedinthelasttwomonths,shouldmarketsstabilize,therecouldbebuying opportunities in Emerging market debt, U.S. high yield and U.S. investment grade bonds.

• ThevaluationsinCanadianandU.S.equitiesstillremain attractive based on current price to earnings (P/E)ratios.

• RelativeStrengthIndex(RSI)onyieldorientedareas such as Canadian REITs suggest they are deeply oversold.

• TheDowtoGoldratio,nowhoveringnear12.0x,looks to be breaking out, suggesting equities may now be more favourable than commodities.

• Afterthesharpsell-offinJune,emergingmarketbonds look to have gathered significant positive momentum.

Bad

• U.S.ManufacturingPMIfellto51.9inJune,whichwas lower than consensus and prior. The silver lining however, is 8 of the 11 components were higher.

• HSBC’sPMIIndexcameinat48.2forJune,confirmingthatChina,theworld’ssecondlargesteconomy is contracting.

• TheS&P/TSXEnergysectortradesatacurrentP/Eof24.3x,significantlyhigherthanthe12.3xcurrentP/E of the S&P 500 Energy sector.

• The34.9xcurrentP/EoftheS&P/TSXUtilitysectorsuggest it is overvalued, however, its 6.69x current price-to-cash flow (P/CF) of the sector suggests it is attractive.

• The10-YearU.S.Treasuryyieldhasbrokenoutsinceearly May, but momentum indicators suggest the surge is short-term overdone.

Ugly

• Again,goldcontinuestobreachtechnicalsupportlevels. Outside of seasonal outperformance during this time of year, there are few reasons to own gold right now.

• TheMarginDebtIndexrecordedanall-timehighinApril2013,showingexcessiveleverageinthefinancial system.

”S&P®” and “S&P 500®” are trade-marks of S&P Opco, LLC and “TSX” is a trade-mark of TSX Inc. These and other associated trade-marks and/or service marks have been licensed for use by BMO Asset Management Inc. None of the BMO ETFs are sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by any of its aforementioned trade-mark owners and the related index providers or their respective affiliates or their third party licensors and these entities make no representation, warranty or condition regarding the advisability of buying, selling or holding units in the BMO ETFs.

The exchange traded funds referred to herein are not sponsored, endorsed or promoted by MSCI, and MSCI bears no liability with respect to any such exchange traded funds or any index on which such exchange traded funds are based. The prospectus contains more detailed description of the limited relationship MSCI has with BMO Asset Management Inc. and any related exchanged traded fund.

This communication is intended for informational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, investment and/or tax advice to any individual. Particular investments and/or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s circumstances. Individuals should seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding any particular investment.

BMO ETFs are managed and administered by BMO Asset Management Inc., an investment fund manager and portfolio manager, and separate legal entity from Bank of Montreal.

Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investments in exchange traded funds. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compound total returns including changes in prices and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account commission charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Please read the prospectus before investing. Exchange traded funds are not guaranteed, their value change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

® BMO (M-bar roundel symbol) is registered trade-mark of Bank of Montreal, used under licence.

Visit bmo.com/etfs or contact Client Services at 1-800-361-1392.

Sign-up today for market-driven investment strategies using BMO ETFs at bmo.com/etfs

Portfolio Strategy Report – Third Quarter 2013 7

Footnotes

1 “VIX” & “VIXC”: Are measures of the market’s expectations of 30-day volatility, annualized. It is constructed using the implied volatility measures based off of varying constituent options of their respective underlying market indices. These measures are meant to be forward looking and are calculated using both call and put options. Higher readings of each of the implied volatility indices indicate a greater level of unease with investors. These implied volatility measures are calculated based off of option contracts for their respective underlying indices. VIX is based off the S&P 500 Composite, VIXC is based off the S&P/TSX 60 Index.

2 S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price (Seasonally Adjusted) Index: A composite index of the home prices for 20 major metropolitan areas in the U.S. This version is removes the seasonal component of the index.

3 Relative Strength Index (RSI): A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset.

4 NYSE Margin Debt Level is the dollar value of securities purchased on margin as measured by the New York Stock Exchange.

5 The Deutsche Bank G10 Currency Future Harvest (DBCFH) index reflects the return from investing long in currency futures for currencies with relatively high yielding interest rates and short in currency futures for currencies with relatively low yielding interest rates. This is designed to exploit the trend that currencies trading with a forward discount, tend to on average perform better than those trading at a forward premium.