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Hydromorphology: The Shape of our Water Future

Richard M. VogelDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Tufts University

CUAHSI Web Seminar

November 5, 2010

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Outline of Talk

What is Hydromorphology?

Hydromorphology Initiatives and Questions

Why do we need Hydromorphology?

A Few Examples

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What isHYDROMORPHOLOGY?

A new branch of hydrology

GEOMORPHOLOGY is to

GEOLOGYAS

HYDROMORPHOLOGY is to

HYDROLOGY

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GEOMORPHOLOGYA branch of geology

Geomorphology deals with structure of the earths surface

and the evolution of processes controlling topography of the earth

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GEOMORPHOLOGY

The evolution of earths topography is due to both natural and anthropogenic processes

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How did the field of Geomorphology arise?

First use of term “geomorphology” was around the time of McGee (1888)

Sack (2002) cite many other ‘geomorphology’ studies prior to 1888 which did not use that term

Field arose slowly, due to large number of new challenges relating to our understanding of the processes which govern evolution of landscapes

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HYDROMORPHOLOGYA subdiscipline of hydrology

Hydromorphology deals with structure and evolution of hydrologic systems

due to complex coupling between human and natural systems

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HYDROMORPHOLOGY: The Shape of Our Water Future

Hydromorphologic problems represent scientific, social and engineering challenges related to how humans reshape fresh-water systems through modifications to the landscape, water infrastructure, and climate, and how our reshaped water systems influence life on the planet.

Science Forum Article in progress by: R. Vogel, R. Hirsch, U. Lall, C. Vörösmarty, X. Cai, P.

Weiskel, C. Kroll, R. Hooper, J. Stedinger, J. Salas

A CUAHSI Hydrologic Synthesis Center Initiative

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Why do we need a new field of HYDROMORPHOLOGY?

Human influences arenow pervasive

Virgin watersheds no longer exist.

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1800

1900

Virgin or Pristine Watersheds No Longer Exist – “Stationarity is Dead”

(Milly et al., Science, 2008)

1950

2000

US Dam History

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The Net Impact of Dams and Human Water Use

From: Gleick, 2003,

Science,Global Freshwater

Resources: Soft Path Solutions for the 20th Century.

Colorado River Delta Runs Dry

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It is no longer possible to ignore human impacts on hydrologic systems

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Human Impacts on Hydrologic Systems

Proposal to Link Major Indian River Systems

$160 Billion Capital Cost

33 Dams (9 Major)

30 Major Canals covering 12,500km

34 million hectares to be irrigated (12x Area of Bangladesh) =30% of

current

34GW of hydropower

Flood Control and Navigation

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Hydromorphology deals with the impacts of humans on hydrologic systems

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BeforeHumanImpacts

Hydromorphology deals with the natural hydrologic processes

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BeforeHumanImpacts

Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of humans on natural hydrologic processes

After Deforestation

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BeforeHumanImpacts

After DeforestationIrrigation

Only

Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of humans on natural

hydrologic processes

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Water Pollution and Water Scarcity

Are the two biggest water challenges of the 21st

Century

Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of water on humans

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Today, 1 out of 6 people, more than a billion

Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of water on humans

Suffer from inadequate access to safe freshwater

Hydromorphology also deals with the impacts of water on humans

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Defining HYDROMORPHOLOGY

The Science of Hydrologic ChangeDetection, Attribution, Prediction and Management

Anthropogenic Influences on Hydrosphere Land Use, Climate Change, Water Infrastructure Interactions and Consequences

Natural Influences on Hydrosphere Climate Variability Interactions and Consequences

How Do We Plan For Nonstationarity?Design, Adaptation and Mitigation

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Hydromorphology: A Field/Word Needing Definition

Field Google Hits (in millions)

Geology 64.1Geomorphology 16.3

Hydrology 30.9Hydromorphology 0.024

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Hydromorphology: A Word in Search of a Field

Recent Conflicting Definitions of Hydromorphology:• Classification system for soils (Rabenhorst et al., 1998) • Structure of soil systems (Wilding and Lin, 2006) • Physical habitat constituted by the flow regime (hydrology

and hydraulics) and the physical template (fluvial geomorphology) (Newson and Large, 2006; Orr et al., 2008)

• A blend of hydrology, geomorphology and ecology ( Ŝípek, et al, 2009).

• The hydrological and geomorphological elements and processes of waterbody systems (European Commission, 2000).

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Human Induced Hydromorphologic problems are in their infancy

Global Population Growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200

YEAR (AD)

Popu

latio

n in

Bill

ions

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Hydromorphologic problems are in their infancy

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How have humans reshaped fresh-water systems through modifications to the landscape, water infrastructure, and climate?

How have our reshaped water systems influenced life on the planet?

How has water constrained and determined climate?

When/how will human induced hydrologic change dominate that due to climate change?

How will we manage such changes?

Example Questions Motivating Hydromorphology

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Human Impacts are Pervasive

Röckström et al. (2009, Nature) argue thathuman impacts are now so pervasive thatat least 3 of 9 planetary boundaries havebeen crossed relating to:

•climate change,•biodiversity loss•nitrogen & phosphorus

cycles.

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Planetary BoundariesRöckström et al. (2009, Nature)

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Human Impacts are Pervasive: Groundwater Depletion Reduces Streamflow

River and Well Hydrographs from North China Plain(from Konikow and Kendy,”Groundwater depletion: A global problem, 2007)

1921-20061914-2006

Sorting Out Natural and Anthropogenic Influences

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2005 Headline: “Low flow in the Colorado River Basin Spurs Water Shortage Discussion Among Seven States”

Sorting Out Natural and Anthropogenic Influences

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Natural Hydrologic and Climatic Variability

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Which Is It?

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Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

Water and Climate

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From

IPCC

Nov

2007

“Today the time for doubt has passed. The IPCC has unequivocally affirmed the warming of our climate system, and linked it directly to human activity.” (UN Secretary General, November 2007)

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The answer is generally

yes.

Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global

temperatures?

A Gallop Poll

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Shrinking of Arctic Sea Ice (from Epstein , 2008)

Extentof IceCover

(millionsof sq. mi)

1978 Year 2008

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Glacial Melt – Reduction in Long Term water storage and fluxes

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Examples of human-induced climate change are now apparent on every

continent

National Park Service

NA

SA

Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM

US

GS

UK.govNA

SA

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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change

Jerry and Marcy Monkman

Wetland Inundation

andLoss

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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change

Dr. Norbert Psuty

-More coastal erosion

Brandt Beach Long Beach Island, NJ

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Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions ScenarioCoastal Flooding in Boston under

Present and High Emission Sea Levels

Source: NECIA/UCS 2007

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Increased Coastal Flooding under Climate Change

AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

Higher sea levels and more frequent flooding

Winthrop, MA

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Boston: The Future 100-Year Flood under the Higher-Emissions Scenario

Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

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New York City : Today’s 100-Year Flood Could Occur Every 10 Years

under the High-Emissions Scenarios

Credit:: Applied Science Associates, Inc.. Source: Google, Sanborn Map Company, Inc.

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Hydromorphology Example 1

How well do we understand the influence of urbanization processes on streamflow?

What are the effects of:

Land Use ChangesClimate ChangesWater Infrastructure

AllTogether?

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Aberjona River, Massachusetts24 sq. mi. urban catchment northwest of

Boston

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Annual Maximum Flood Discharges have been steadily increasing

Aberjona River, MAQ = Annual Maximum Floodflow (cfs)

ln(Q) = 0.0147 Year - 23R2 = 0.2186

p=0.000012345678

1940 1960 1980 2000Year

ln(Q

)

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Note how 100-year flood has steadily increasedfrom one decade to the next

Peak Flows (cfs)

No

nEx

ceed

ance

Pro

bab

ility

1000100

99

95

90

80

7060504030

20

10

5

1

0.1

Variable

Qpeak 1970s-1980sQpeak 1990s-2002

Qpeak 1940sQpeak 1950s-1960s

Increasing 100year floods

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It is not only floods which are influenced by urbanization.

0.1

1

10

100

1000

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Exceedance Probability

Dai

ly S

trea

mflo

w (c

fs)

1940s-1950s

1960s-1970s

1980s-1990s

ALLFlows Increased

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Annual evapotranspiration decreased due, in part to conversion from forest to urban

land use

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Exceedance Probability

Ann

ual E

vapo

tran

spira

tion

in in

ches

1940s-1950s

1960s-1970s

1980s-1990s

EvapotranspirationDecreased

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Consider another urbanizing watershed near Boston – Neponset River

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Another nearby urbanizing watershed just south of Boston …

Neponset River watershed

1

10

100

1000

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Exceedence probability

Dai

ly s

trea

mflo

w (c

fs)

1940s - 1950s1960s - 1970s1980s - 1990s

High Flows Here, like the

textbook says,

Low flows

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Like clockwork, low flows have been dropping over time as impervious area has

increased.

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As Urbanization Increases

Impervious Cover

Evapotranspiration

Stormwater System Leaks

Hydromorphologic Processes Direction

Water Withdrawals

Return Flows and Imports

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As Urbanization IncreasesStreamflow Tends to …?

Impervious Cover

Evapotranspiration

Stormwater System Leaks

Hydromorphologic Processes Impact on River

Water Withdrawals

Return Flows and Imports

Net Impact on Streamflows

HighFlows

LowFlows

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Example 1 -SummaryUnderstanding relationships between changes in:

land useclimatewater infrastructure

and

hydrologic processes

is a central challenge of hydromorphology

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Gage 1052500

ln(Q) = 0.0046t - 0.65R2 = 0.074

1

10

1935 1955 1975 1995Time, t

lnQ

p=0.01

Gage 1120500

ln(Q) = 0.015t - 23R2 = 0.22

1

10

1935 1955 1975 1995

Time, t

lnQ

p=0.00

Gage 119400

ln(Q) = 0.022t - 35R2 = 0.23

1

10

1930 1950 1970 1990

Time, t

lnQ

p=0.00

Gage 1122680

ln(Q) = 0.0413t - 76R2 = 0.2429

1

10

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Time, t

lnQ

p=0.01

First consider four basins in New England

Example 2: Flood Trends US Rivers

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Flood Trends

Define Flood Magnification Factor,

tyearinfloodyearTttyearinfloodyearT

tQttQM

T

T

−∆+−

=∆+

=)(

)(

With log linear trend model and lognormal floods

[ ]tM ∆⋅= βexpslopetrend=β tQ ⋅+= βα)ln(in

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ResultsDecadal Flood Magnification Factors

From Vogel et al. 2010, JAWRA, in press

3 Groups of USGS Gages

Group Of Sites

Total

Number of Sites

Number of Sites with Significant

Positive Trends

Percentage of Sites With Significant

Positive Trends

Unregulated 14,893 1,642 11% Regulated 4,537 481 11%

HCDN 1,588 208 13%

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Decadal Magnification Factors of Floods – Sites w/ no regulation

1,642 of 14,893 USGS Gage Sites

From Vogel et al. (2010) JAWRA, in press

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Decadal Flood Magnification FactorsSites With No Regulation

From Vogel et al., 2010, in press, JAWRA

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Decadal Flood Magnification Factors - HCDN Sites

208 of 1,588 HCDN Gage Sites with

From Vogel et al. (2010) JAWRA, in press

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Decadal Flood Magnification Factors

From Vogel et al., (2010) in press, JAWRA

Summary

Magnitude of climate induced trends are minimal compared with other anthropogenic induced trends

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Example 2 - Summary

Nonstationarity poses a central challenge to the field of hydromorphology

Hydromorphological Science Challenges:

Detection and Attribution of Change

Hydromorphological Engineering Challenges:

Design, Prediction and Management Under Change

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P

P = Precipitation; ET = EvapotranspirationSWout = Surface-water runoffGWin = GWout = groundwater

Most Hydrology Texts Cover the

“Scientific”Water Budget

Without Humans

Example 3 – A Scientific Approach to Human Interaction with Hydrologic Systems

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P

P = Precipitation; ET = EvapotranspirationSWout = Surface-water runoffGWin = GWout = groundwater

But We Don’t Live in a“Scientific Watershed”

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Special Thanks to:

Peter Weiskel (USGS) and other collaborators resulting in:

Weiskel, P.K., R.M. Vogel, P.A. Steeves, P.J. Zarriello, L.A. DeSimone and K.G. Ries, III, Water-Use regimes: Characterizing direct human interaction with hydrologic systems, Water Resources Research, 43, W04402, 2007

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Adding Humans to the Water Balance

Influence of Water Use:

Hout = human withdrawals

Hin = human returnflows + Imports

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…with three flux classes:

- Land-atmosphere fluxes (P, ET)

- Landscape fluxes (GW, SW)

- Human fluxes (Hin, Hout)

A new conceptual model of the terrestrial water balance:

hydro-system…with three flux classes:

- Land-atmosphere fluxes (P, ET)

- Landscape fluxes (GW, SW)

- Human fluxes (Hin, Hout)

hydro-system…with three flux classes:

- Land-atmosphere fluxes (P, ET)

- Landscape fluxes (GW, SW)

- Human fluxes (Hin, Hout)

hydro-system

Water-use Regimes: 4 end-member (EXTREME) regimes

Surcharged Churned

Undeveloped Depleted

Hin Hin Hout

SW + GW

SW + GW

SW + GW

(from Weiskel, Vogel and others 2007)

Hout

Central Valley Aquifer

P ET

P - ET P - ET

P - ET

Water-use regime plot

Shows relative magnitudes of withdrawals versus return flows and of human vs. natural fluxes.

(from Weiskel, Vogel and others, 2007)

hin

hout

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Selected Water-Use RegimesWatersheds

From Weiskel, Vogel and others., 2007

Nor

mal

ized

Impo

rts

+Ret

urn

Flow

s

Normalized Withdrawals

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Selected water-use regimesAquifers

From Weiskel, Vogel and others., 2007

Nor

mal

ized

Ret

urn

Flow

s

Normalized Withdrawals

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A Water Resource DevelopmentPathway

Mississippi River Alluvial Aquifer,

Predevelopment 1918to 1998

Water use regimes are subject to trends

Based on transientsimulations of Reed

(2003)Normalized Withdrawals

Nor

mal

ized

Ret

urn

Flow

s

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Sustainable Water-Use Regimes

A rich topic forfuture research

Normalized Withdrawals

Nor

mal

ized

Ret

urn

Flow

s

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Summary

We can no longer ignore anthropogenic influences on the hydrologic cycle.

Hydromorphology provides a conceptualbasis for improving our understanding ofthe coupling between human and natural water systems

Hydrologic science and engineering methods must deal with a changing hydrosphere

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Improve interdisciplinary education and hydrologic literacy

• Give greater attention to interdisciplinary subjects and languages such as: statistics, GIS, systems analysis, information sciences,

• Innovative interdisciplinary programs are needed - see http://tufts.edu/water

• Integrate hydromorphologic perspective into undergraduate and graduate curricula.

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Harmonize research with policy development

• Hydromorphology must support water resources design, planning and management.

• Hydromorphology accounts for coupling between societal and natural influences on water systems

• Linkages between hydrologic, social, and political systems are needed to improve decisions about sustainable water use, management and land use.

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Ensure commitments to observational programs

• Keeling (2008) said “The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it, and this means tracking changes decade after decade, and poring over the records.”

• Milly et al. (2008) said: “Modeling should be used to synthesize observations; it can never replace them.

• In a nonstationary world, continuity of observations is crucial.”

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Summary

Hydromorphological Science

“understanding the role of land use, climate and infrastructure on the hydrologic cycle”

Hydromorphological Engineering:

“Hydrologic engineering in a changing hydrosphere”