stories to watch 2014

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1 FEATURING Andrew Steer President and CEO, WRI Image: Flickr/NA.dir

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What stories will impact people and the planet in 2014? On 8 January 2014, Dr. Andrew Steer, WRI’s President & CEO, offered his perspectives on the major global developments in economics, business, natural resources and sustainability in the coming year. Find out more at http://www.wri.org/stw14

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Stories to Watch 2014

1

FEATURING

Andrew Steer President and CEO, WRI

Image: Flickr/NA.dir

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/nadircruise/3047518565/sizes/l/in/photostream/ Add “Hosted By”
Page 2: Stories to Watch 2014

Source: IMF, 2013

345 consecutive months hotter than the 20th century average

Image: Flickr/lapstrake; Source: NOAA, 2013

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/lapstrake/8419441036/ Frozen lighthouse on Lake Michigan. November 2013 was the 345th month, the last month to have been analyzed January 2014 will likely be the 347th month, despite a cold snap at the beginning One of the coldest weeks in recent history in the US… In Detroit, Lows of 14 degrees below zero were reported Monday and early Tuesday at Detroit Metropolitan Airport in Romulus as well as in Flint.. The wind made it feel as it was 30 to 40 degrees below zero. It’s been 342 consecutive months above the average. Anyone born after 1985 hasn’t been on Earth for a month when the temperature was below the global average. 2013 was in the top 10 warmest years on record. It was the hottest year on record in Australia. Source: NOAA 2013 Last update was for November 2013, released 12/17/2013 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/ncdc-releases-november-2013-global-climate-report
Page 3: Stories to Watch 2014

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

RECESSION OVER G

DP

GR

OW

TH

Source: IMF, 2013

Presenter
Presentation Notes
In recent years we’ve seen mixed economic growth, the US and EU are rebounding… Source: IMF 2013 2013 data is an estimate http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx
Page 4: Stories to Watch 2014

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST G

DP

GR

OW

TH

BRAZIL

Source: IMF, 2013

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Key developing countries have seen robust growth in recent years, but now they are showing signs of slowing… —China, India and Brazil growth is slowing… Source: IMF 2013 2013 data is an estimate http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx
Page 5: Stories to Watch 2014

$15 trillion

$30tr

$50tr

$100tr

1970

1990

2010

Real GDP (2005 dollars)

2030

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACK

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Source: USDA ERS 2013 http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-macroeconomic-data-set.aspx#.Us7t1vRDvAQ
Page 6: Stories to Watch 2014

EXPLOSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS

1990

1 Billion

2010

2 Billion

2030

5 Billion

Source: Reuters, OECD 2010

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Definition of middle class: Daily per capita spending of $10 to $100 in purchasing parity terms. Source of first bar: Reuters http://www.reuters.com/middle-class-infographic Source of second two bars: Homi Kharas/OECD 2010 http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf
Page 7: Stories to Watch 2014

PRESSURE ON PLANET GROWING

Image: Wikipedia, Source: Sperling and Gordon 2009

2030

2.5 billion

2010

1.5 billion

750 million

1990

Number of Vehicles

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Picture: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/Bangkok_traffic_by_g-hat.jpg Includes scooters, motorcycles, cars, trucks, buses Source: Sperling and Gordon 2009 Oxford University Press Approximated from graph http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/trnews/trnews259billioncars.pdf Vehicle ownership is also booming – from 750 million in 1990 to 1.5 billion in 2010 to over 2.5 billion in 2030…
Page 8: Stories to Watch 2014

THE BIG QUESTION

Can we have economic growth and tackle sustainability at the same time?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The big question as we look at the world today is: Can we have economic growth and tackle sustainability at the same time? As we turn to the big stories of 2014 – this is the question we should be asking... and what will the coming year tell us about the answer.
Page 9: Stories to Watch 2014

1 1 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?

Image: istockphoto

THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-22279176-rio-de-janeiro-at-night.php
Page 10: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat

CITIES ARE BOOMING

274,000 people added to cities each day for next 30 years

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Flickr: 3753026671; Harvey Barrison 274,000 people added to cities each day for next 30 years” By the middle of the 21st century, it is estimated that the urban population will more than double, increasing from 2.5 billion in 2009 to almost 5.2 billion in 2050.  “what we have done in all human history, we nearly will do in the next 30 to 40 years of history." Please note that 2/3rds of this urbanization trend is due to migration. (UN: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/10/un-predicts-near-doubling_n_4415290.html)� Source: UN-Habitat 2013 Director's comments reported in the Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/10/un-predicts-near-doubling_n_4415290.html
Page 11: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company

CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS

65% global GDP growth in major cities

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-31997002-skyline-of-downtown-rio-de-janeiro.php?st=b45f243 Cities are major economic drivers… Text: 65% of global GDP growth in major cities Source: McKinsey and Company 2012 This is for 2025, not today http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class
Page 12: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO

BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES

• 70% of GHG emissions come from cities

• 10% GDP lost to congestion • 1.3 million people die

prematurely due to urban air pollution

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/streetlife/2308324447/ 70% of GHG emissions come from cities Source: UN Habitat 2011 http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/GRHS2011/P1HotCities.pdf 10% GDP lost to congestion Source: UNFCCC 2011 This is for Shanghai specifically; from a speech by Christiana Figueres http://unfccc.int/files/press/statements/application/pdf/110511_speech_csd.pdf 1.3 million people die prematurely due to urban air pollution Source: WHO 2011 http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs313/en/
Page 13: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon

THIS?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
We have a choice … more congestion and inefficient cities or…
Page 14: Stories to Watch 2014

OR THIS?

Image: Flikr/Andreas

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/56963596@N00/227245766 Or this: compact, well designed cities that can be hubs of economic growth, creativity, innovation, education and prosperity…
Page 15: Stories to Watch 2014

CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION?

Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011)

Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 2012

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Source: Source: Cai et al. 2013. “Comparative study of energy consumption and CO2 emissions between Beijing and London.” Front Energy 7(1): 1-5; City of New York. “Inventory of New York City Greenhouse Gas Emissions, September 2010.” Mayor’s Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability; Hoornweg et al. 2011. “Cities and greenhouse gas emissions: moving forward.” Environment and Urbanization 23: 207; Olivier et al. 2012. “Trends in global CO2 emissions.” PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. China has 7.2 tons of CO2 per person and the US has 17.3. BUT, Beijing has 10. CO2 per person and NYC city has only 5.9.
Page 16: Stories to Watch 2014

CITIES IN THE LEAD

Image: istockphoto

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-16730906-nelson-mandela-bridge.php?st=dd83b6a C40 logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prn/20120531/CG16347LOGO-b/JOHNSON-CONTROLS-C40-CITIES-LOGO Mayors are on the front lines of sustainability – The C40 represents mayors from leading cities around the world who are committed to driving low-carbon growth… Next month, C40 Chair & Mayor Eduardo Paes, Rio, Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York and Mayor Mpho Parks Tau of Johannesburg, will lead the fifth biennial C40 Mayors Summit in Johannesburg to convene mayors from the world’s largest cities for 3 days to advance urban solutions to the climate crisis.
Page 17: Stories to Watch 2014

ALL EYES ON BRAZIL

Image: Wikipedia; Source: EMBARQ

$6.5bn spent on the World Cup

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Maracana_Stadium_June_2013.jpg This year, nowhere will cities be in more focus than in Brazil.. Brazil is home to the World Cup…which will bring 6.5 billion in investment to Brazil EMBARQ 2010 . http://thecityfix.com/blog/spotlight-on-the-world-cup-brazil-gears-up-for-games-with-urban-transit-investments/ Source: EMBARQ 2010 6.48 bn committed to World Cup "urban mobility" infrastructure investments. http://thecityfix.com/blog/spotlight-on-the-world-cup-brazil-gears-up-for-games-with-urban-transit-investments/
Page 18: Stories to Watch 2014

FIFA 2014 WORLD CUP

Source: Fifa.com

3m more visitors in 2014

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/destination/cities/ 12 cities will host world cup games, bringing in more than 3 million visitors to Brazil… Source: EMBARQ 2011 2.98 m more visitors to Brazil anticipated in 2014 http://thecityfix.com/blog/sustainable-transport-moves-center-stage-as-brazil%E2%80%99s-2014-world-cup-looms/
Page 19: Stories to Watch 2014

ALL EYES ON BRAZIL

Image: istockphoto; Source: World Bank

85% of Brazilians live in cities

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-30822396-aerial-view-of-copacabana-district-in-rio-de-janeiro.php?st=b45f243 85% of Brazil’s population lives in cities… Brazil is a bit different since its population has already made a transition to urbanization – the question is whether than can shift their development model to address equality and other issues… Source: World Bank 2013 Data from 2012 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS/countries
Page 20: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: Flickr/Semilla Luz; Source: The Guardian

TAKING IT TO THE STREETS

1m+ people on the streets June 2013

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/semilla_luz/9098629254/ This year, Brazil has seen protests over investment choices, bus taxes and other equity issues… More than 1 million people have been part of the protests... Source: The Guardian 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/21/brazil-police-crowds-rio-protest
Page 21: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: Flickr/EMBARQ; Source: EMBARQ

CREATING BETTER CITIES: URBAN MOBILITY LAW

3,000 cities to create plans by 2015

Presenter
Presentation Notes
More than 3000 cities are expected to make urban mobility plans by 2015. Source: EMBARQ 2013 The number of cities (3000) comes from communication with EMBARQ http://www.embarq.org/en/news/13/11/01/embarq-brazil-helps-guide-cities-developing-urban-mobility-plans
Page 22: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: Flickr/Guilherme Mendes Thomaz; Source: BRTdata.org

BETTER CITIES: BUS RAPID TRANSIT

12m passengers per day

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Flickr: 4370520506 Guilherme Mendes Thomaz More than 100 cities have more than 1,500 km of bus-rapid-transit lines which carries more than 12 million people per day. EMBARQ is working to improve important transport and urban design… Source: BRTdata.org 2013 11.96 million BRT passengers per day in Brazil http://brtdata.org/#/location/latin_america/brazil
Page 23: Stories to Watch 2014

WHAT TO WATCH 1. What signals does

Brazil send on the future of its cities?

2. Which way will cities grow?

Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-20256498-street-ligths.php What signals does Brazil send on the future of its cities? Which way will cities grow?
Page 24: Stories to Watch 2014

1 2 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya

THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?

RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/67276940@N04/6129470918/in/photolist-akD9a5-bVxxFN-bVxx7h-hj5rhW-h8QniS-bs8RoU-bs8Ruu-8gW67D-bXYPCL-fB1hbQ-9vNZiG-9vNZoq-9vKX8B-9vKXpi-9vKXh4-9vKXmF-giJGvh-giJLsA-giK8nd-giJkmd-giJHhC-giKiCF-8oCYV9-apHDzc-aPo2Yt-acF4Uk-aoEYyK-ek9KnK-egyh4a-egygAe-egyhUR-g1L3vt-g1KNQJ-g1KHa3-g1KxNh-g1Ljrp-g1KQ9p-g1LfMa-g1KTUv-g1KRzb-gwm16W-g1L6Lr-g1EDcJ-g1L9Ub-g1Le9R-g1KZ7p-gwmFi5-gwmN7H-g1L4mK-cjzspq-cjzsiQ Now, we’re onto Story #2. Looking around the world what are some of the big sustainability issues ahead of us…
Page 25: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRI

FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE

50 soccer fields lost each minute

Presenter
Presentation Notes
According to new data released in December of 2013, we are losing 50 soccer fields of forests for each minute of each day… Source: Hansen et al. 2013 Soccer field units based on WRI calculations http://www.sciencemag.org/content/342/6160/850 http://http://www.wri.org/blog/new-high-resolution-forest-maps-reveal-world-loses-50-soccer-fields-trees-minute
Page 26: Stories to Watch 2014

BUT, THERE’S HOPE…

Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration

2bn hectares with opportunities for forest landscape restoration

Presenter
Presentation Notes
2 billion hectare Dark Green: Wide-scale opportunities Light Green: Mosaic-type opportunities According to WRI analysis, restoration of degraded lands can bring multiple benefits… offering a new opportunity to utilize land that is currently non-productive and being wasted… 2b hectares of land offer the potential for forest landscape restoration – this is an area 2 times the size of China. Image: Map of global restoration opportunities: http://staging.blueraster.com/forestrestoration/v4/# ; username/password -> blueraster/demo2012! Text: pop-up of “2 million hectares” Source: GPFLR 2013 Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration http://www.forestlandscaperestoration.org/resource/assessing-national-potential-landscape-restoration-briefing-note-decision-makers
Page 27: Stories to Watch 2014

SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS

1960

2000

Image: WRI

Page 28: Stories to Watch 2014

NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRY

Pre-1990s Today

Image: WRI

Page 29: Stories to Watch 2014

THE BONN CHALLENGE

Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI

150m hectares under restoration by 2020

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/9080955745/in/set-72157637294445686 In 2012, leaders in restoration announced the “The Bonn Challenge” a commitment to restore 150 million hectares of degraded land. This is an area almost the size of [Mongolia]. In June of this year, world leaders in deforestation will meet in Bonn, Germany to expand to restoration efforts… � Source: IUCN 2011 http://www.iucn.org/?uNewsID=8147
Page 30: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: Flickr/CIFOR; ource: IUCN

150m RESTORED HECTARES • $84 billion in benefits annually • 47 gigatons of CO2e captured • 17% reduction in emissions gap

BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cifor/5630279714/in/set-72157626521716690 Successfully tackling the Bonn Challenge will help to make progress on forests, the economy and emissions… Provide $84 billion in economic benefits Capture 47 gigatons of CO2e – this is the equivalent to annual emissions of 10 trillion cars Reduce the emissions “gap” by as much as 17% Source: IUCN 2012 http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/policy_brief_on_forest_restoration_2.pdf �
Page 31: Stories to Watch 2014

USA (15m ha)

BRAZIL - PACTO (1m ha)

COSTA RICA (1m ha)

EL SALVADOR (1m ha)

RWANDA (2m ha)

A GROWING MOVEMENT

Source: WRI

Presenter
Presentation Notes
We are seeing real progress toward the Bonn Challenge, with 20 million hectares pledged so far, and another 30 million in the pipeline [note we cannot name countries]… 20 million hectares total pledged Brazil: 1 million ha Costa Rica: 1 million ha El Salvador: 1 million ha Rwanda: 2 million ha USA: 15 million ha� Source: WRI 2013 From a previous presentation nad also personal communication http://www.apafri.org/activities/Bhutan2013/bhutan/presentation/m7%20d%20-%20restoration%20and%20bonn%20challenge%20may%202013.pdf
Page 32: Stories to Watch 2014

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will more countries

make commitments when they meet in June 2014?

2. Will a new global movement for restoration emerge?

Image:

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.forsalecostaricarealestate.com/Listing/ViewListingPhotos.aspx?BackEmailTypeID=NONE&ListingID=92513866 Events/Milestones in 2014: March: Increased focus on restoration by major international actors with CBD & FAO convening their first of several global events in Brazil that will discuss how to achieve Aichi target 15 (15% restoration of degraded land by 2020). CBD and FAO will host a series of at least six similar regional events in 2014. June: Bonn Challenge 2.0 launch, a ministerial event convened by Germany, Norway and the UK governments who are stepping up as the major supporters of restoration globally September: Ban Ki-Moon Climate Summit The questions are will: Will More Countries Make Commitments in 2014? Will a New Global Movement for Restoration Emerge?
Page 33: Stories to Watch 2014

1 3 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?

Image: istockphoto

THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?

SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?

RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-21674134-palm-oil-fruit-transportation.php?st=e7db67b Now, let’s turn to Story #3, which also has to do with forests and agriculture, but looks at the palm on oil industry and supply chains… Will we see progress on Sustainable Palm Oil in 2014?
Page 34: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO

PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP

400% increase in palm oil production in 20 years

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/77334245@N00/7338493016/ Palm oil is one of the world’s most important crops – The oil from palm trees is found in everything from cooking oil and candy bars to cleaning agents and cosmetics… Palm oil comes from topical locations from Indonesia to Africa and the Caribbean and is then sold in products in supermarkets around the world… Production has quadrupled in two decades… Source: FAO 2013 373% increase in palm oil from 1990 to 2010 Calculated from FAO data http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/Q/*/E
Page 35: Stories to Watch 2014

PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP

Source: National Geographic 2013

50% of grocery store products contain palm oil

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Today, 50% of grocery store products contain palm oil… � Source: National Geographic 2013 http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2013/08/12/its-not-all-bad-americans-and-palm-oil/
Page 36: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Presenter
Presentation Notes
But, there’s a problem… Palm oil is a major cause of deforestation…
Page 37: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Presenter
Presentation Notes
But, there’s a problem… Palm oil is a major cause of deforestation…
Page 38: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Presenter
Presentation Notes
But, there’s a problem… Palm oil is a major cause of deforestation…
Page 39: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION

Presenter
Presentation Notes
But, there’s a problem… Palm oil is a major cause of deforestation…
Page 40: Stories to Watch 2014

A NEW APPROACH

“There is a strong and rapidly growing demand for traceable, deforestation-free palm oil, and we intend to meet it as a core element of our growth strategy.”

–Kuok Khoon Hong, CEO of Wilmar

Source: Wilmar Press Release 2013

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Wilmar, the world’s #2 palm oil trader, with $45 billion in revenue has just released a landmark policy on deforestation that includes a commitment to a transparent sourcing network with full traceability. Wilmar: Has ceased development through deforestation and expects all suppliers to cease by the end of 2015. World’s largest refiner and trader of palm oil, also a “major” producer Commitments on own lands effective on announcement of policy -- December 5, 2013 Commitments also address exploitation of people and local communities (labor rights and FPIC) No deforestation defined as no HCV areas, no high carbon stock areas, no peatlands Source: Wilmar 2013 http://business-humanrights.org/media/documents/wilmar_intl-press-release-no_deforestation_no_peat__no_exploitaton_policy-_5_dec_2013.pdf
Page 41: Stories to Watch 2014

A NEW APPROACH

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Nestle: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nestle/sets/72157606235405860/ Unilever, One of the largest buyers of palm oil in the world Will purchase all palm oil from certified sustainable sources by 2015. 100% of supply will be traceable to known sources by 2014. Will purchase all palm oil sustainably from certified, traceable sources by 2020. � Proctor & Gamble: By 2015, P&G intends to purchase and use palm oil that is confirmed to have originated from responsible and sustainable sources. (Primarily an oleochemical company, user of palm kernel oil)   Nestle: Target: zero deforestation by 2020 and 100% RSPO certified by 2015.
Page 42: Stories to Watch 2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

A NEW APPROACH

Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil Certified Production Area

Perc

enta

ge o

f Tot

al A

rea

Image: Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil, FAO

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Percentage of total production area that is RSPO certified, according to RSPO. These data reflect claims by RSPO. Alternative calculations yield lower percentages but a similar upward trend. Calculation: RSPO certified area (from RSPO)/FAO harvested area (from FAOSTAT) RSPO 2013 Certified area (ha) http://issuu.com/rspo2013/docs/cspo-uptake-and-production-nov.pptx?e=7524983/6158297 FAO 2013 Harvested area (ha) - World http://faostat3.fao.org/faostat-gateway/go/to/download/null/Q/E 15% for 2013: http://www.rspo.org/news_details.php?nid=155
Page 43: Stories to Watch 2014

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Global Forest Watch will be launched in late February of this year (Feb 18-28). Will be available at www.globalforestwatch.org.
Page 44: Stories to Watch 2014

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Here’s the interface, showing pink tree cover loss alerts (FORMA) across Asia. Note the timeslider at the bottom.
Page 45: Stories to Watch 2014

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Zooming into the island of Sumatra, Indonesia
Page 46: Stories to Watch 2014

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Zooming in further to Riau Province in Sumatra.
Page 47: Stories to Watch 2014

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Turning on a data layer showing oil palm concessions. This data layer comes from the Indonesian Ministry of Forestry and will be downloadable on the site.
Page 48: Stories to Watch 2014

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Turning on a data layer showing protected areas (such as national and regional parks, game reserves, etc.) This data layer comes from UNEP-WCMC and will be downloadable on the site.
Page 49: Stories to Watch 2014

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

TESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Zooming in to Tesso Nilo Park (shown in blue). This park is critical habitat for the endangered Sumatran Tiger, only 400 of whom are thought to remain in the wild on the island. Note that nearly the entire park area has is showing tree cover loss alerts, much of which appear to “leak” from the oil palm concessions. Many of the alerts in the park area are from the last 6 months. The red circle highlights an area where we have additional information (see next slide).
Page 50: Stories to Watch 2014

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

Image: Jufri/ Greenpeace

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Here’s an aerial photo of the area circled in red on the previous map (see lat/long coordinates in lower corner). There is evidence of forest clearing and oil palm development in the shot. This photo was taken by Greenpeace as part of their investigation into forest clearing in Tesso Nilo (written up in the report “License to Kill”). Greenpeace used WRI alert data (FORMA) as part of their analysis, and we are cited in the report. According to a separate WWF field survey of more than 50,000ha of encroachment areas inside Tesso Nilo in 2011, 70% (~36,000ha) of that land had been converted to oil palm plantations. WWF’s investigation named two major international traders, Wilmar and Asian Agri, as trading in palm oil from Tesso Nilo. http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/Campaign-reports/Forests-Reports/Licence-to-kill/ http://www.wwf.or.id/en/?28680/Addressing-the-encroachment-problem--in-Tesso-Nilo-National-Park
Page 51: Stories to Watch 2014

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will better information

expedite the shift to sustainable palm oil?

2. Will other industries follow?

Image: istockphoto

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-16657386-oil-palm-plantations.php?st=9085dba What to Watch: Will better information expedite the shift to sustainable palm oil? Will other industries follow?
Page 52: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: istockphoto

4 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?

THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?

SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?

RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-12611934-woman-wearing-a-face-mask-against-pollution-or-disease.php?st=fdd21c9 Now we turn to story #4 – China…
Page 53: Stories to Watch 2014

Image: Flickr/Leniners

2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION

189 days of high pollution in Beijing in 2013

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/35971282@N00/11214167034/ It is safe to say that 2013 will be remembered for its remarkable pollution… Even WRI’s own staff in Beijing have to check their apps each day to see what the air quality is like before they leave for work in the morning… According to the Beijing environmental bureau, Beijing suffered 189 polluted air days in 2013: environmental bureau The average density of PM2.5 in 2013 reached 89.5 micrograms a cubic meter – more than two times the good air quality (which is 35). Source: Global Times 2014 http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/835484.shtml#.Us8m9fRDvAQ
Page 54: Stories to Watch 2014

POPULAR UNREST

Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian

3m mentions of “PM 2.5” on SINA WEIBO, Jan 2013

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/83975172@N02/7689765228/in/photolist-cHw4i7-cHvvcU-cHvNhS-cHvQ2A-cHvMWW-cHvJN9-cHvPyh-cHvJEy-cHvL1A-cHvMFq-cHvLRq-cHvSHf-cHw8wu-cHvSSY-cHw2as-cHvPqw-cHw3iY-cHvMz7-cHvU35-cHvTQJ-cHw8Lf-cHvNZw-cHvT6s-cHvJqU-cHw2uS-cHvKmG-cHvNv9-cHvUcW-cHvKuG-cHvZsN-cHvPJf-cHvTpS-cHvKU7-cHw1xC-cHvK4j-cHvLrU-cHvMSj-cHw1W7-cHvTAd-cHvNKw-cHw3MJ-cHw1ib-cHvUTG-cHw89u-cHw2LC-cHvPb1-cHvZVq-cHvMqN-cHvKFC-cHvutf The pollution challenge has been in all the major papers and is becoming a driver of popular unrest in the country… In fact, in 2013, the number of mentions of the term 2.5 pm went from 200 mentions in 2011 to 3,000,000 mentions last year! Source: The Guardian 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/feb/16/chinese-struggle-through-airpocalypse-smog
Page 55: Stories to Watch 2014

A DRIVER OF POLLUTION

Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013

50% global coal consumed by China

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.wri.org/blog/exploring-prospects-us-coal-exports-china It’s been well documented that coal production is the main driver of the air pollution problems…. China consumes over 50% of the world’s coal. Source: EIA 2013 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9751
Page 56: Stories to Watch 2014

CHINA’S PROPOSED POWER PLANTS

363 COAL PLANTS PROPOSED

Source: WRI

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Location of China’s Proposed power plants. Dot size correlates with the power generation capacity. And, according to WRI analysis from 2012, China’s government planned 363 coal-fired power plants for construction across China, with a combined generating capacity exceeding 557 gigawatts -- Installed capacity at the end of 2012 was 758 GW. Source: WRI 2012 http://www.wri.org/blog/new-global-assessment-reveals-nearly-1200-proposed-coal-fired-power-plants
Page 57: Stories to Watch 2014

WATER-ENERGY NEXUS

51% ARE IN AREAS OF HIGH WATER STRESS

Source: WRI

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Donut chart illustrates the percentage of total power generation capacity for each stress category. Growing energy demand combined with water stress brings serious stresses for China’s energy and water sectors… Over half China’s new plants in areas of high water stress For example, 27.9% of China’s total proposed power generation capacity will be installed in areas with extremely high baseline water stress. Source: WRI 2013 http://www.wri.org/blog/majority-china%E2%80%99s-proposed-coal-fired-power-plants-located-water-stressed-regions
Page 58: Stories to Watch 2014

CLIMATE CHANGE: A “SERIOUS THREAT”

“Climate change is already a serious threat to food, water, ecological and energy security, and to people’s lives and property.”

–National Development and

Reform Commission, Dec. 9, 2013

Presenter
Presentation Notes
And all of these challenges are combined with climate change… which is already taking a toll on people and the economy… Quote from NDRC: “Our country is a developing nation with a large population, complex climate conditions and a weak environment (situation),” the economic planning agency said. “Climate change is already a serious threat to food, water, ecological and energy security, and to people’s lives and property. (National Development and Reform Commission, Dec. 9, 2013) Cost of climate change: $32.9b since 1990 Source: NDRC 2013 http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/2013tz/t20131209_569585.htm
Page 59: Stories to Watch 2014

TAKING ACTION: AIR

Image: WRI; Source: China Daily

$277bn budgeted for anti-pollution measures in the next 5 years

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldresourcesinstitute/3215942916/in/set-72157613133101983 But, it is NOT true to say that China is not acting. In fact, growing domestic and international pressure is pushing its leaders to respond… In June 2013, the State Council approved the Airborne Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (2013-17).   It is backed by 1,700 billion yuan ($277 billion) in total investments from the central government. Source: China Daily 2013 http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-07/25/content_16826755.htm
Page 60: Stories to Watch 2014

TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COAL

Image: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; source: ChinaFAQs

Ban on New Coal Plants in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47223993@N03/6230917584/ Also, there is a ban on new coal-fired power stations in three regions surrounding Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou Source: ChinaFAQs 2013 http://www.chinafaqs.org/blog-posts/can-china%E2%80%99s-action-plan-combat-air-pollution-slow-down-new-coal-power-development
Page 61: Stories to Watch 2014

TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT

Image: Flickr/Bert Van Djik; Source: Xinhua

8 cities in China fined by provincial government for air pollution

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/zilpho/8169783773/in/photostream/ 8 Chinese cities were recently fined by the provincial government for air pollution, marking the first time that the provincial government imposed fines on local governments.     Will this type of enforcement and enforcement through official evaluations become more common in 2014? Source: Xinhua 2013 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-12/10/c_132956993.htm?
Page 62: Stories to Watch 2014

TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES

Image: Flickr/Yuek Hahn ; Source: National Energy Administration (China)

50% of all new power capacity added in Jan-Oct

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-24336408-peak-wind-farm.php?st=fdd21c9 50% of new power capacity was renewable energy, surpassing fossil fuel…   China has recently increased its target for domestic installed solar PV capacity to 35GW by 2015, which would be a massive increase over the 7.5GW installed in at the end of 2012.   Source: Point Carbon [Reuters] 2013 According to government data http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/reutersnews/1.3228867
Page 63: Stories to Watch 2014

HOW WILL PILOTS PERFORM?

Source: ChinaFAQs

7 emissions trading systems running in 2014

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Carbon Trading Pilots (orange) Low-Carbon Provinces and Cities (green) China has now launched 5 out of its 7 pilot emissions trading schemes. These have been specifically designed with the goal of experimenting with different forms of emissions trading in China.     How will the different systems fare in their first year and what lessons will China be able to learn? Source: ChinaFAQs 2013 By June 2013, 1 pilots had started, 4 were expected later in the year http://www.chinafaqs.org/blog-posts/emissions-trading-china-first-steps-and-road-ahead
Page 64: Stories to Watch 2014

WHAT TO WATCH 1. A tipping point on air

pollution?

2. More progress to rein in coal?

3. Will new renewables outpace fossil fuels?

Image: WRI

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldresourcesinstitute/2555712025/in/set-72157613133101983 What should we watch in 2014? What to watch: A tipping point on air pollution?� More progress to rein in coal?� Will new renewables outpace fossil fuels?
Page 65: Stories to Watch 2014

1 5 U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD?

Image: WRI

THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?

SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?

RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD?

CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
WRI: http://goo.gl/JQ9DDG Moving from China to the US, let’s look at Story #5, which is what to watch with the US power sector…
Page 66: Stories to Watch 2014

AN APPROACHING DEADLINE

Image: Flickr/Mike_tn; Source: EPA

New Guidelines Issued by EPA by June 1, 2014

Presenter
Presentation Notes
JUNE 1 2014 = EPA ISSUES PROPOSED GUIDELINES JUNE 2015 = EPA ISSUES FINAL GUIDELINES JUNE 2016 = STATE PLANS DUE EPA is expected to meet the June 1 deadline to issue proposed carbon pollution standards for existing power plants   Section 111 (d) is a state-based program for existing sources. The EPA establishes guidelines. The states then design programs that fit in those guidelines and get the needed reductions.   EPA is required by law to enact standards for harmful carbon dioxide pollution, following a 2007 Supreme Court Decision. President Obama directed EPA to also finalize carbon dioxide pollution standards for existing power plants by June 1, 2015. States would then need to submit their proposed implementation plans by June 30, 2016. (EPA is required by law to enact standards for harmful carbon dioxide pollution, following a 2007 Supreme Court decision.) Source: EPA 2013 http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/0/da9640577ceacd9f85257beb006cb2b6!OpenDocument
Page 67: Stories to Watch 2014

Source: EPA

POWER PLANTS ACCOUNT FOR 1/3 OF U.S. EMISSIONS

Coal-Fired Power Plants

26%

Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants

6%

Other Power Plants

1%

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Why are these standards important? This is one of the most important steps that the Obama administration can take using its existing authority. The power sector represents one-third of all U.S. GHG emissions, the largest source of carbon dioxide pollution in the United States. 26% from coal-fired power plants� 6% from natural gas fired power plants� 1% from other power plants Source: EPA 2013 http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html
Page 68: Stories to Watch 2014

U.S. EMISSIONS TARGET

17% emissions reduction by 2020

Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White House

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/9097346084/ The question is what direction will the Obama administration take? How aggressive it will be. WRI analysis finds that it will be extremely difficult for US to reach its target of reducing emissions by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, without ambitious action… Source: White House 2013 http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/image/president27sclimateactionplan.pdf
Page 69: Stories to Watch 2014

WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN NEW RULE

31% reduction in GHG emissions below 2011 by 2020

74% reduction in GHG emissions below 2011 by 2035

Image: Flickr/Alex Lang; Source: WRI

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/40888529@N00/3546825820 If fully implemented, emissions standards could reduce emissions by 31 percent in GHG emissions by 2020 and a 74 percent reduction in GHG emissions by 2035 (compared to 2011 levels). 31% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020 (below 2011)� 74% reduction in GHG emissions by 2035 (below 2011) This is the opportunity that the US has to reduce its emissions.. but even this is not enough… Source: WRI 2013 These number were recalculated by WRI to reflect reductions from 2011 levels (rather than 2012) and the number on the right was recalculated for reductions by 2020 (rather than 2021) http://www.wri.org/publication/can-us-get-there-here
Page 70: Stories to Watch 2014

COAL UNDER PRESSURE

98 plants retired in last two years

Image: Flickr/Jonathan Haeber; Source: EIA

Presenter
Presentation Notes
A little more than 1000 coal plants in the US… 98 plants have retired in the past two years (2012 & 2013) Source: EIA 2013 Calculated from EIA datset by WRI http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860/
Page 71: Stories to Watch 2014

“RIPE FOR RETIREMENT”

45% of U.S. coal plants announced or ripe for retirement (UCS)

Image: istockphoto; Source: UCS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-12704954-geothermal-power-plant-silhouette-at-sunrise.php Of course, we cannot ignore the larger context under which these standards are taking place. Coal is facing pressure at home… there is growing public pressure to reign in pollution and economic pressure coming from natural gas. The Union of Concerned Scientists recently reported that many US coal plants that are “ripe for retirement”. These are:   1. Old age – US plants average about 43 years 2. Underutilized, 50% capacity factor 3. Dirty, more than 70% lack adequate controls for at least 3 of 4 pollutants analyzed� Source: UCS 2013 (329 "ripe" + 150 announced)/1053 total http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/smart-energy-solutions/decrease-coal/economic-analysis-us-coal-plants.html
Page 72: Stories to Watch 2014

2014: IS CCS FINALLY HERE?

Kemper Project

Image: Wikipedia

Presenter
Presentation Notes
CCS is available/technically feasible. And EPA's proposed performance standards for new plants require partial CCS, providing a pathway for full-scale deployment.   The US has already invested in the enabling conditions for CCS—environmental regulations, research demonstrations, and loan guarantees for commercial projects.   It is time (now, this year) to include CCS in future fossil plants. The performance of the Kemper plant (pictured) and other first of-a-kind demonstrations will help determine whether CCS will play a significant role in future energy portfolios. Note: There are currently 12 operational large–scale CCS projects around the world, which have the capacity to prevent 25 million tonnes a year (Mtpa) of CO2 from reaching the atmosphere. 20 large scale projects in construction and operation 2 CCS projects at power plants are scheduled to begin operation in 2014 12 large scale projects in China
Page 73: Stories to Watch 2014

WHAT TO WATCH

Image: Flickr/wigwam

1. Will EPA rules be ambitious?

2. Will a US medium-term strategy emerge?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/wigwam/2630349031/in/set-72157605939259747 What to watch: What is the nature of the EPA’s new rules? Will Obama Administration Be a Go-Getter on Climate?
Page 74: Stories to Watch 2014

1 6 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?

Image: Wikimedia

THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?

SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?

RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?

U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD?

CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/19/United_Nations_Chrysler_and_Empire_State_Building.jpg Image of New York, UN building This leads to the question of whether we will see renewed momentum on climate change in 2014. In 2014, governments will decide what to bring to the 2015 agreement in Paris. The Climate Summit this September in New York will gather 193 heads of state. Can Ban-ki Moon put the climate issue at the top of the international agenda? What’s coming up? March 2015 is thedeadline for negotiation offers COP20 - Agreed to decide what info for the offers - How to look at equity and adequacy Why is 2014 important? in this window, governments will decide what to do for March 2015.
Page 75: Stories to Watch 2014

NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALS

Source: UNFCCC

Presenter
Presentation Notes
99 countries with general GHG reduction goals announced to the UNFCCC, plus the African group 60 countries have specific 2020 targets The other 39 have announced national appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) without concrete targets But still this is not enough. The urgency is clear, the question is how leaders will respond. Source: UNFCCC 2011-2013 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/sb/eng/inf01r01.pdf http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2013/sbi/eng/inf12r02.pdf
Page 76: Stories to Watch 2014

IMPACTS MOUNTING

Image: Flickr/Rembcc

Presenter
Presentation Notes
One of the most powerful typhoon ever recorded to hit land destroyed parts of the Philippines.   The devastation has been catastrophic, flattening homes, schools and hospitals and leaving thousands dead and 5.5 million children affected.� Typhoon Haiyan’s intensity – measured by the wind strength at its center and the speed of gusts at landfall – Haiyan ranks at number 7 among the strongest storms ever to have hit the Philippines. �Between 2010 and 2050, yearly cost of adapting to a 2 degree C warmer world is up to $100 billion. This comes from: “Our global study estimates that the price tag between 2010 and 2050 for adapting to an approximately 2oC warmer world by 2050 will be in the range of $70 billion to $100 billion a year. Our country studies suggest that costs could be even higher, once cross-sectoral impacts are taken into account. Source: World Bank 2012 http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2011/06/06/economics-adaptation-climate-change
Page 77: Stories to Watch 2014

Source: Rystad Energy, Carbon Tracker

Gt C

O2

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Budget Proven reserves

Oil 22%

Gas 13%

Two thirds of reserves

“unburnable”

Coal 65%

UNBURNABLE CARBON

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Fossil fuel companies are facing the reality that many of their assets may have to be left in the ground if we are going to stay within safe limits… UNBURNABLE CARBON (2012): The total CO2 potential of the earth’s proven reserves comes to 2795 GtCO2. 65% of this is from coal, with oil providing 22 % and gas 13%. Source:�Carbon Tracker 2012 http://www.carbontracker.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2011/07/Unburnable-Carbon-Full-rev2.pdf � RYSTAD ANALYSIS FOR NORWEGIAN GOVT (August 2013): Carbon budget to 2050 = 1,075 GtCO2 For an 80% probability of staying below 2C by 2050, with the most optimistic case of CCS To stay within this budget, 2/3 of fossil fuel resources must stay in the ground Assuming IEA energy mix projections, the following is unburnable: 78% of coal 35% of gas 38% of oil Source:�Rystad Energy 2013 Report for Norwegian Ministry of the Environment http://www.rystadenergy.com/Downloads/PressReleases/2013-Rystad-Energy-Climate-report-Norwegian-Ministry-of-the-environment.pdf
Page 78: Stories to Watch 2014

SUBSIDIZING THE WRONG THING

Image: Flickr/Berardo62; Source: IMF

$2tn annual energy subsidies (IMF)

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Image: http://www.flickr.com/photos/92819961@N04/8435305475/in/photostream/ IMF Report: The IMF found that energy subsidies paired with the negative impacts of fossil fuel consumption total $2 trillion annually. �We are subsidizing the wrong thing. The richest 20 percent of households capture 43 percent of all fuel subsidies—six times the share of the bottom 20 percent According to the IMF, eliminating energy subsidies could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 5 billion tons—a 15 percent reduction globally. “if an activity generates a negative externality and you don’t tax it, that is a subsidy,” said William Gale, co-director of the Brookings Institution’s Tax Policy Center. Source: IMF 2013 http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/012813.pdf
Page 79: Stories to Watch 2014

IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRIL

Image: Flickr/Gavin Golden

Presenter
Presentation Notes
The IPCC will come out with two additional reports in 2013… In March: past/future impacts of climate change + strategies for adaptation and resilience.   In April: costs/benefits of mitigation measures in different sectors: energy, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry, waste management Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability The Working Group II (WGII) contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability will be considered in Yokohama, Japan, on 25-29 March 2014. �Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change The Working Group III (WGIII) contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report on mitigation of climate change will be considered in Berlin, Germany, on 7-11 April 2014, April May Climate impacts Policies
Page 80: Stories to Watch 2014

Images: Wikipedia

“RISKY BUSINESS” – JUNE

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Henry_Paulson_official_Treasury_photo,_2006.jpg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:SteyerHeadshot.jpeg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Michael_R_Bloomberg.jpg In June 2014, watch for new tools for understanding climate change risks and new ways to quantify the economic benefits of climate action. �In June 2014, three of the United States’ most successful businessmen-- Hank Paulson, Michael Bloomberg, Tom Steyer-- will deliver a analysis on the economic risks of climate change and begin a concerted outreach effort.   The risk assessment will combine existing data on the current and potential impacts of climate change with original research that will quantify potential future costs.
Page 81: Stories to Watch 2014

NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBER

Image: WRI

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/103110117@N06/9919484693/in/set-72157635849983556 In September, a group of countries came together to develop a new economic analysis of growth and climate change…   It will investigate whether/how climate policy can be made compatible with strong economic performance.   The report will engage decision makers in both public and private sectors   WRI has partnered with 6 other research and policy institutes to make recommendations on policies that can deliver better economic growth and address the risks posed by climate change.   The report will be launched in September just ahead of the leaders summit in New York.
Page 82: Stories to Watch 2014

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBER

Image: Flickr/UNClimateChange

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/africa-renewal/6959342385/ UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has called for a leaders’ summit on climate change to be held in New York City in the fall of 2014. This meeting will come a month before the next climate negotiations in Lima, Peru, and a year before the Paris climate meetings which are intended to be when the world will enter a new climate agreement… Summit is an action-oriented summit and countries, companies and NGOs will come forward with partnership initiatives on key climate issues.  Will these actions put climate change back on top of the agenda? Will countries deliver real commitments?�
Page 83: Stories to Watch 2014

PATHWAY TO PARIS

Image: Wikimedia

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Metro6.jpg Looking ahead, we have the COP20 in Lima, Peru in December 1-12 before the decisive COP21 in Paris in 2014. We need action this year to prepare for 2015 and get on track for a strong climate agreement… We cannot wait for 2015…. 2014 countries will have to prepare their negotiating offers – the question is what they decide at home to bring to the international arena.   
Page 84: Stories to Watch 2014

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will growing evidence

spur public pressure?

2. How will heads of state respond?

Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/27389313@N05/6285501633/ What to Watch: Will growing evidence spur more public pressure? How will leaders respond?
Page 85: Stories to Watch 2014

1

7

THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?

SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?

RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?

U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD?

CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?

A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?

A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?

Image: istockphoto

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-12114785-colours-of-india.php?st=0ec669f With major elections in India, Brazil, Indonesia, EU, and more, the world will see major national elections in 2014… More than 1 billion voters in 2014… These votes will take place in major countries around the world… with important implications for people and sustainability…
Page 86: Stories to Watch 2014

A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY

Image: istockphoto

• 3 of the 4 largest democracies to elect heads of government

• 25% of world’s population • 40% of the global poor

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.istockphoto.com/stock-photo-31369330-election-symbol.php?st=0638c61 Together, 3 of the 4 largest democracies (except the US) will have elections for their national leaders… These represent 25% of the world’s population and 40% of the poor… 3 of 4 largest democracies to elect heads of state Source: NDI 2013 http://www.ndi.org/electionscalendar 25% of the world's population Source: IMF 2013 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/02/weodata/index.aspx 40% of global poor Source:World Bank 2013 http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableselection/selectvariables.aspx?source=poverty-and-inequality-database
Page 87: Stories to Watch 2014

ELECTIONS: BRAZIL

Image: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA

136m voters in Brazil

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dilma-rousseff/4971087292/ President Dilma Rousseff is facing competition especially after wide-spread popular protests this year and mixed economic success.. 136 million registered voters in Brazil Source: IDEA 2013 Projected by WRI from previous election data using IMF population estimate http://www.idea.int/vt/
Page 88: Stories to Watch 2014

ELECTIONS: INDIA

Image: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA

780m voters in India

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/londonsummit/3408386309/ In India, Rahul Gandhi (Congress) faces off against Narendra Modi (BJP) 780 Million voters in India Source: IDEA 2013 Projected by WRI from previous election data using IMF population estimate http://www.idea.int/vt/
Page 89: Stories to Watch 2014

ELECTIONS: INDONESIA

Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA

160m voters in Indonesia

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/5392870136/ In Indonesia, Susilo Banbang Yuhyhono [SBY] is retiring from office. Text: over 160 million voters in Indonesia Source: IDEA 2013 Projected by WRI from previous election data using IMF population estimate http://www.idea.int/vt/
Page 90: Stories to Watch 2014

ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION

Image: Flickr.EEAS

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://www.flickr.com/photos/eeas/6830481104/
Page 91: Stories to Watch 2014

U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Image: istockphoto

Presenter
Presentation Notes
And of course there are midterm elections in the US… The big question here is what will happen with the balance of power in the House and will the Republicans retake the Senate? Currently: Senate: 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, 2 Independents House: 233 Republicans, 200 Democrats, 2 Vacancies (anticipated as of January 6) How will the outcome impact issues, including climate change….
Page 92: Stories to Watch 2014

ELECTIONS MATTER

Image: Wikipedia

Presenter
Presentation Notes
Elections matter. We saw last year that following President Obama’s reelection, he announced a new National Climate Plan… Meanwhile in Australia, however, PM Abbot rolled back Australia’s climate legislation and lowered the country’s emissions reductions target…
Page 93: Stories to Watch 2014

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will these

elections go?

2. What will the results tell us about economic development and sustainability?

Image: Flickr/Al_Jazeera_English

Presenter
Presentation Notes
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Long_voting_queues_-_Flickr_-_Al_Jazeera_English.jpg Which way will these elections go?   What will the results tell us about economic development and sustainability?
Page 94: Stories to Watch 2014

1 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW?

2 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY?

3 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA?

4 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?

5 U.S. POWER: SETTING A NEW STANDARD?

6 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?

7 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?

Presenter
Presentation Notes
[List of seven stories…]