why light is right
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Why Light is Right?
January 2012 Nicolas Meilhan
Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan
January 2014
2
5 major challenges must be taken into account to develop the car of the
future : CO2 emissions, end of fossil fuels, air & noise pollution but also
congestion and parking
2 global challenges
Climate changes End of cheap oil
3 local challenges
Pollution Congestion Parking
3
Is the individual electric car really the ultimate transport mode in cities? Of the 3 major problems city faces – pollution, traffic and parking, the individual electric car
only addresses the pollution locally – noise & atmospheric
Space occupied in a city street to transport 60 persons
4
Is the electric car the best solution to reduce CO2 emissions? Probably not....
Total CO2 emissions - ICE vs. Electric car, world-
Source: CEA http://www.theshiftproject.org/sites/default/files/files/conf_tsp_ve_david_cea_0.pdf
5
Is there anything we could do if we really care about CO2? Reducing car size (and weight) could be an idea....
Total CO2 emissions - ICE vs. Electric car in France -
Source: CEA http://www.theshiftproject.org/sites/default/files/files/conf_tsp_ve_david_cea_0.pdf
6
Weight and engine power of the average French car in the last 50 years 10 kg increase per year, 500 kg in 50 years!
Engine power multiplied by more than 2,5
Evolution of power, weight and price of a passenger car - 1953 to 2011, France -
Source : L’Argus
Power
Average Weight
Price in month of
minimum salary
7
What is the most energy efficient transport mode? Small frontal area per person, small weight per person, go slowly and steadily,
convert energy efficiently
Source : David MacKay
Amount of scrap metal displaced to
transport 1 person:
Renault Zoé – 1,4t – 1,4 person
1000 kg per person
Renault Twizy – 500 kg – 1 person
500 kg per person
Bus - 20t – 60 persons
330 kg per person
Scooter 125 – 150 kg – 1 person
150 kg per person
Electric bike – 20 kg – 1 person
20 kg per person
Bike - 10 kg – 1 person
10 kg par person
8
Pro
du
ctio
n in
bill
ion
s o
f o
il b
arr
els
pe
r ye
ar
Reducing CO2 emissions is a good thing… … but it does not guarantee we will still be able to afford driving our cars in the short term
while oil supply is stagnating... and oil prices are surging!
Source: Manicore – Jean-Marc Jancovici
Liquid fuels production -1870-2100 -
• Future belongs to fuel efficient vehicles as well as low-cost cars (such as Logan)
• In Japan, 40% of passenger cars sold in 2012- 2 millions in total - were kei-cars – small cars
with length limited to 3,5 m and engine power limited to 660 cc
Reducing energy consumption is even better!
9
Power to compensate mechanical losses
Power to compensate aerodynamic losses
What consumes energy when we drive? At lower speeds– in cities– mechanical losses, which are correlated to vehicle weight, have
the biggest impact on the energy consumption of vehicles
Power required to compensate mechanic & aerodynamic friction forces
Source : Gregory Launay - www.gnesg.com
Accelerations, which is increasing the speed of a given mass, is what requires
the most energy when driving in a urban environment
Po
wer
Speed
10
How to reduce cars fuel consumption? 2 ways – increase the energy efficiency or reduce car weight
Fuel consumption of vehicles depends on the amount of energy required to move the vehicle
as well as the powertrain energy efficiency. To decrease the fuel consumption, one can either:
Reduce losses (increase the energy efficiency with an hybrid power train for example)
Reduce the amount of energy required (with a lighter car for example).
Source : Gregory Launay www.gnesg.com CO2 emissions
En
erg
y
The red arrow represents the path that car markers have followed up to now which in most of
the time increased the energy consumption of the car although it reduced its CO2 emissions
An energy efficient approach would make a lot of sense in the future
11
Peugeot BB1 Rex
Hybrid Air
1 L /100km – Impossible? Fuel consumption of a 600 kg electric car with a small range extender is as low as 1 L/100 km
Fuel consumption of a car vs. weight and energy efficiency -
We
igh
t (k
g)
Tank to wheel energy efficiency (%)
Source : Gregory Launay - www.gnesg.com
12
An electric Peugeot BB1 fitted with a small range extender is probably the
urban car of the future with a fuel consumption as low as 1 L/100 km and a total
range of 300 km, in line with customer expectations
Technical Specification Peugeot BB1
EV
Peugeot BB1
Rex EV
Weight 600 kg 565 kg
Engine Power & Torque 15 kW
320 N.m
Battery size 12 kWh 3 kWh
Battery weight 100 kg 25 kg *
Battery price € 4,800 € 1,200 **
Electric range 120 km 30 km
Electric consumption 10 kWh/100km
Total range 120 km 300 km
Range extender : type, size, power - 2 cylinders, 0.25 L
15 kW
Fuel tank (L) - 10 L
Range extender weight - 40 kg
Range extender price - 3,500 €
Price 14,800 € 14,700 €
* Battery weight= 8.5 kg/kWh ** Battery price = 400€/kWh
• 4 seats
• Length = 2,5 m
• Width = 1,6m
• Top speed– 90 km/h
• Range – 120 km
• 600 kg including 100 kg batteries
Peugeot BB1 (2009)
13
How the car of the future looks like in an energy constrained world? 4 seats, a weight of 600 kg & an hybrid powertrain
Source : Matthieu BARREAU & Laurent BOUTIN , Réflexions sur l’énergétique des véhicules routiers
Specification of the car of the future
• 4 seats vehicle
• Weight of 600 kg (150 kg / person)
• Hybrid powertrain
Fuel consumption of 1,5 L/100 km at 90 km/h
Fuel consumption <1 L/100 km at 50 km/h in urban environment
Some examples to follow
14
The Mathis Andreau 333 (1946) is a very good example of a light energy
efficient car that we should follow! 3 wheels, 3 persons, 385 kg, 3 meter 40, 3.5 Litres / 100 km, developed 2 x 33ans ago
Source : Matthieu BARREAU & Laurent BOUTIN , Réflexions sur l’énergétique des véhicules routiers
15
Small is Beautiful & Light is Right!
Source : Matthieu BARREAU & Laurent BOUTIN , Réflexions sur l’énergétique des véhicules routiers
16
Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant
Energy & Transportation Practices
(+33) 1 42 81 23 24
nicolas [email protected]