real estatemarketreport 1q12

14
PHILIPPINE PROPERTY MARKET RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT www.colliers.com While the average GDP growth across the ASEAN countries slowed to 4,8% from 6.9%, the Philippine economy manageably grew at 3.7% last year. Despite the fact that government spending on infrastructure was belatedly pushed last year, and while fishing production and exports have consistently declined, the resilient performance in the services sector, and the strong consumer spending, compensated for last year’s sluggish growth. Outlook by most multilateral institution on the Philippine economy is to grow 3.5% to 4.0% this year. Office space options are currently narrow across Metro Manila mainly due to the strong demand coming from the O&O industry. At present, IT-related and BPO firms, with immediate, sizeable requirements, have alternatively resorted to plug & play options either for normal operations or as an incubation space. In 1Q 2012, the vacancy rate in the Makati CBD grew slightly by 0.3% to 4.43%, yet remained within the sub-4% level over the last two quarters. The increase in vacancy is mainly attributed to Grade B offices which grew by around 1.02% to 4.83% breaching the 3% level of last year. In Metro Manila, supply remains considerably high across condominiums with some 33,000 units completed and over 50,000 units launched last year. Completion grew by over 48% annually while some 40,000 units more are expected towards the end of 2013. Premium vacancy rate in Makati consistently evened out at the sub-6% level since the second quarter of last year. Meanwhile, three-bedroom rental rates went up in the first quarter by over 4% to an average of P660 per sq m. At present, there is about 5.2 million sq m of leasable retail space, 2.11% higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. Vacancy rates, in both super-regional and regional malls across Metro Manila slightly increased by .07% yet occupancy rates remain at the 99% level. In an aim to further increase foot traffic and slacken competition, major mall developers are currently turning away from the traditional mall configuration, and are presently geared towards improving the shopping experience through the integration of new technologies, attractions and natural parks. MARKET INDICATORS OFFICE RESIDENTIAL RETAIL Q1 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE Executive Summary ECONOMY OFFICE RESIDENTIAL RETAIL

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Page 1: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

pHILIppINE pROpERTY MARKETresearch & forecast report

www.colliers.com

While the average GDp growth across the ASEAN countries slowed to 4,8% from 6.9%, the philippine economy manageably grew at 3.7% last year. Despite the fact that government spending on infrastructure was belatedly pushed last year, and while fishing production and exports have consistently declined, the resilient performance in the services sector, and the strong consumer spending, compensated for last year’s sluggish growth. Outlook by most multilateral institution on the philippine economy is to grow 3.5% to 4.0% this year.

Office space options are currently narrow across Metro Manila mainly due to the strong demand coming from the O&O industry. At present, IT-related and BPO firms, with immediate, sizeable requirements, have alternatively resorted to plug & play options either for normal operations or as an incubation space. In 1Q 2012, the vacancy rate in the Makati CBD grew slightly by 0.3% to 4.43%, yet remained within the sub-4% level over the last two quarters. The increase in vacancy is mainly attributed to Grade B offices which grew by around 1.02% to 4.83% breaching the 3% level of last year.

In Metro Manila, supply remains considerably high across condominiums with some 33,000 units completed and over 50,000 units launched last year. Completion grew by over 48% annually while some 40,000 units more are expected towards the end of 2013. Premium vacancy rate in Makati consistently evened out at the sub-6% level since the second quarter of last year. Meanwhile, three-bedroom rental rates went up in the first quarter by over 4% to an average of p660 per sq m.

At present, there is about 5.2 million sq m of leasable retail space, 2.11% higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. Vacancy rates, in both super-regional and regional malls across Metro Manila slightly increased by .07% yet occupancy rates remain at the 99% level. In an aim to further increase foot traffic and slacken competition, major mall developers are currently turning away from the traditional mall configuration, and are presently geared towards improving the shopping experience through the integration of new technologies, attractions and natural parks.

market indicators

office

residentiaL

retaiL

Q1 2012 | the knowledge

Executive Summaryeconomy

office

residentiaL

retaiL

Page 2: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

* At constant prices (based on 2000 level)

ECONOMIC INDICATORS2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Gross National product 3.5 4.8 6.1 6.0 6.5 8.4 2.60

Gross Domestic product 4.8 5.2 6.6 4.2 1.1 7.6 3.70

Personal Consumption Expenditure 4.4 4.2 4.6 3.7 2.3 3.4 6.10

Government Expenditure 2.1 10.6 6.9 0.3 10.9 4.0 -0.70

Capital Formation 2.96% -15.12% -0.47% 23.36% -8.68% 31.61% 11.10%

Exports 5.0 12.6 6.7 -2.7 -7.8 21.0 -3.80

Imports 3.3 3.5 1.7 1.6 -8.1 22.5 1.90

Agriculture 2.2 3.6 4.7 3.2 -0.7 -0.2 2.60

Industry 4.2 4.6 5.8 4.8 -1.9 11.6 1.90

Services 5.8 6.0 7.6 4.0 3.4 7.2 5.00

Average Inflation (Full Year %) 7.6 6.2 2.8 9.3 3.2 6.65 4.80

Budget Deficit (Billion Pesos) 146.8 62.2 12.4 68.1 298.5 314.4 197.7

P: US$ (Average) % 55.0 51.3 46.1 44.7 47.6 45.10 43.31

Average 91-Day T-Bill Rates % 6.4% 5.3% 3.4% 5.2% 4.0% 3.70% 1.37

economyWhile the average GDp growth across the ASEAN countries slowed to 4,8% from 6.9%, the philippine economy manageably grew at 3.7% last year. Though at a meagre growth rate, the country was able to withstand the weak global demand derived from external economic tribulations.

Despite the fact that government spending on infrastructure was belatedly pushed last year, and while fishing production and exports have consistently declined, the resilient performance in the services sector, and the strong consumer spending, compensated for last year’s sluggish growth. Specifically, services under the Real Estate sub-sector grew annually by 17.0%, while Renting and Other Business Activities increased by 9.6%. Last year, the services sector contributed more than 40% of the country’s gross national income which reached over p7.7 trillion (+2.6%). Meanwhile, consumer spending increased by 6.1% in 4Q 2011. OFW remittances which posted over US$20.1 billion are expected to continually bolster consumption. The same increased over a billion in the last two years. Furthermore, inflation rate further contracted to 2.7% pushing lending rates at its lowest regime from 5%-8%. Outlook by most multilateral institution on the philippine economy is to grow 3.5% to 4.0% this year.

p. 2 | coLLiers internationaL

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PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE

OFW Remittances

Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas* As of January 2012

Page 3: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

Land VaLUesAs of 1Q 2012, implied land values in the Makati CBD appreciated by 2.26% to an average of P284,130 per sq m. This is expected to increase by 6% in the next twelve months and may reach P300,000 per sq m, higher than its historic peak in early 2009. In Ortigas Center, land values grew by 1.5% to P130,783 per sq m and are expected to grow by 4% by the end of the first quarter next year. The highest growth was registered in Fort Bonfiacio at 28% year-on-year (YoY) driven by the continuous interest in developable land and properties. Currently, it is pegged at P189,000 per sq m and is projected to grow by 17% over the next twelve months.

COMpARATIVE LAND VALUES

pESO / SQ M 1Q 12 4Q 11 % chanGe (QoQ) 1Q 13f % chanGe (yoy)

MAKATI CBD 271,501 - 296,759 266,177 - 289,521 2.26 290,218-315,800 6.64

ORTIGAS CENTER 97,952 - 163,614 96,504 - 161,196 1.50 101,870-170,519 4.00

BGC 154,500 - 225,145 150,000 - 220,730 2.40 191,215-253,200 17.00

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Makati CBD, Ortigas & Fort Bonifacio Average Land Values

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Licenses to seLLOverall residential licenses issued by the HLURB contracted for the third consecutive year. Last year, about 164,487 licenses were registered, 13% lower than in 2010. The socialised and economic housing segments consistently dropped by 32 and 30% to 35,682 and 45,207 units, respectively. On a lesser magnitude, issuances on mid-income housing numbered 32,300 units, slightly down by -0.7%.

Meanwhile, across the high-rise residential sector, licences continually increased to about 51,298 units, a growth of over 30% compared to 2010. While developers continue to favour high-density projects, the presence of Grade B condominiums continues to augment the number of issued licenses. In 2011, over 50,000 units were launched in Metro Manila. This gives a major indication that licenses in this segment may continue to rise over the remainder of the year. As of February of this year, some of the projects which recently obtained licenses are The Chelsea Residences (704 units) in Alabang, Sorrento Oasis (690 units) in Pasig, 8 Adriatico (922 units) and One Archers Place (655 units) in Manila.

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p. 3 | coLLiers internationaL

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE

Page 4: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

HLURB LICENCES TO SELL

UNITS JAN - DEC JAN - DEC % CHANGE YOY

2011 2010

Socialised Housing 35,682 52,602 -32.2

Low-Cost Housing 45,207 64,537 -30.0

Mid-Income Housing 32,300 32,541 -0.7

High-Rise Residential 51,298 38,936 31.7

Commercial Condominium 786 2,622 -70.0Farm Lot 444 225 97.3

Memorial park 136,174 116,645 16.7

Industrial Subdivision 30 35 -14.3

Commercial Subdivision 495 374 32.4

Total (Philippines) 304,427 310,527 -2.0

Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

office sectorSupply

Office space options are currently narrow across Metro Manila mainly due to the strong demand coming from the O&O industry. Consequently, developers continue to catch up by bringing in roughly over 1.2 million sq m of new office space in the span of two years. At present, IT-related and BPO firms, with immediate, sizeable requirements, have alternatively resorted to plug & play options either for normal operations or as an incubation space. Furthermore, based on inquiries recently received by Colliers, several interests in areas outside Metro Manila consistently surface. These particularly include Cebu, Davao and Ilo-ilo which subsequently are key expansion sites among major developers.

Meanwhile in the Makati CBD, supply remains limited. Delayed for completion by over a quarter, Zuelling Building (57,000 sq m), the only office due for delivery in the Makati CBD this year, is set to be operational in the next couple of months. Alphaland Makati Tower (38,400 sq m), and the Glorietta 1 and 2 BPO buildings (27,800 sq m each) are the only new office spaces to become available in 2013. Furthermore, all over Metro Manila, supply stock in net usable space increased marginally in 1Q 2012 to 5.8 million sq m. This includes Science Hub 2 (19,000 sq m) in McKinley Hill and the SM Megamall Car Park Extension (13,000 sq m) in Mandaluyong. Techno Plaza Two (35,800 sq m) and A Place, previously named One Coral Way, (7,500 sq m), are expected to be available in the early part of the second quarter.

HLURB Licenses

Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board

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p. 4 | coLLiers internationaL

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE

Page 5: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

Makati CBD vs. Metro Manila Office Stock

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

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office sectorDemand

In 1Q 2012, the vacancy rate in the Makati CBD grew slightly by 0.3% to 4.43%, yet remained within the sub-4% level over the last two quarters. The increase is mainly attributed to Grade B offices which grew by around 1.02% to 4.83% ̶ breaching the 3% level of last year. On the other hand, vacancies contracted across the premium and Grade A segments, down by 2.14% and 0.52% to 3.38% and 3.63%, respectively. Take-up rates are expected to drop this year by 26% to 27,800 sq m, mainly attributed to the limited office space and a negligible increase in supply.

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Makati CBD Office Supply and Demand

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p. 5 | coLLiers internationaL

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | OFFICE

Page 6: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

MAKATI CBD COMPARATIVE OFFICE VACANCY RATES (%)

1Q 12 4Q 11 1Q 2013F

pREMIUM 3.38 5.52

GRADE A 3.63 4.15

GRADE B & BELOW 4.83 3.81

ALL GRADES 4.42 4.08 4.00

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

FORECAST OFFICE NEW SUppLY

LOCATION End-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MAKATI CBD 2,699,696 - 80,353 101,719 -

ORTIGAS 1,126,018 19,332 - 87,110 -

FORT BONIFACIO 485,693 106,579 200,349 219,091 137,214

EASTWOOD 252,979 39,840 35,765 - -

ALABANG 234,305 31,247 - 33,560 -

OTHER LOCATIONS* 685,362 81,007 203,282 76,163 178,052

TOTAL 5,484,053 278,005 519,749 517,643 -

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research*Manila, Pasay, Mandaluyong, and Quezon City

Rents

Premium rental rates in the Makati CBD consistently increased quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) by 2.8% to about P875 per sq m on average. This is projected to grow by 6% over the next twelve months and will exceed the P900 per sq m level last seen in early 2007. Meanwhile, both Grade A and B rents grew marginally by 0.22 and 0.42% to p698 per sq m and p483 per sq m, respectively. Running at an average of p720 per sq m, Grade A rental rates in Bonifacio Global City have continuously surpassed that of Makati since 2Q 2011. While most firms remain wedded to Makati mainly due to familiarity and brand, Grade A rents are expected to grow by 7.5% in 1Q 2013 and will eventually level off to that of BGC at p750 per sq m.

COMPARATIVE OFFICE RENTAL RATES (PESO / SQM / MONTH)

MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA)

1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q13F % CHANGE (YOY)

pREMIUM 825 - 922 788 - 912 2.8 860 - 990 5.9

GRADE A 500 - 895 497 - 895 0.2 575 - 925 7.5

GRADE B 455 - 510 451 - 510 0.4 480 - 545 2.1

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

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PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | OFFICE

Page 7: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

NOTABLE LEASING DEALS

Building Area Size (sq m)

Net Lima Taguig 8,364.00

Science Hub Tower 2 Taguig 4,250.00

Insular Life Corporate Center Alabang 3,200.00

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Capital Values

In 1Q 2013, premium building capital values continually went up to their current p114,840 per sq m (+5.54%). As the completion of Zuellig Tower approaches, average values are expected to grow around 7.0%, the highest quarterly increase that could transpire in the business district. To a much lesser degree, capital values on the Grade A and B segments grew by 1.52 and 1.35% to p82,680 and p55,745 per sq m, respectively. Both segments are expected to grow modestly by 3% to 5% in the next twelve months

COMPARATIVE OFFICE CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQM)MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA)

1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY)

pREMIUM 104,569 - 125,113 100,443 - 117,190 5.5 119,886 - 131,188 9.3GRADE A 70,091 - 95,267 69,933 - 92,950 1.5 72,697 - 100,846 5.0GRADE B 48,060 - 63,430 47,000 - 63,000 1.4 49,200 - 65,910 3.3

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Makati CBD Office Capital Values

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

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PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | OFFICE

Page 8: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

Supply

In Metro Manila, supply remains considerably high across condominiums with some 33,000 units completed and over 50,000 units launched last year. Completion grew by over 48% annually while some 40,000 units more are expected towards the end of 2013. Contrary to over a decade ago, the low lending rates, easy access to credit and affordable payment schemes, made intrinsic components for high-take up rates mainly in the smaller-unit segment. Moreover, supply has largely been augmented by the strong presence of high density projects across the metro area, where the primary inventory mix favours studio and one-bedroom units.

In the Makati CBD, the gap between the small unit sizes (studio and one-bedroom) and the large unit sizes (two-bedroom and above) started to widen in 2002 and is expected to grow continuously over the next three years. With the 15,500-unit stock at present, the majority or roughly 60% belongs to the 30 to 60 sq m range as against 40% in the 70 to 230 sq m range. Consequently, stock is still expected to grow annually by 15% in the span of two years driven by projects in the Grade A and B sectors. Meanwhile, some of the condominiums that have started turning over are Eton Residences Greenbelt (302 units), Eton Parkview Greenbelt (236 units), and One Pacific Place (240 units).

Makati CBD Residential Stock

FORECAST

RESIDENTIAL NEW SUppLY

LOCATION (cumulative) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TOTAL

MAKATI CBD 13,076 1,659 2,204 2,105 473 19,517

ROCKWELL 2,382 1,336 - - 441 4,159

FORT BONIFACIO 10,709 1,365 4,819 1,684 1276 19,853

ORTIGAS 7,481 2,389 672 262 792 11,596

EASTWOOD 5,735 - 558 977 278 7,548

TOTAL 39,383 6,749 8,253 5,028 3,260 62,673

Source: Colliers International Philippines ResearchDemand

In Makati, landed property remains the preferred lease option in the expatriate market. However, due to the narrow options across exclusive villages, demand alternatively settles on premium condominiums. Despite this, the lack of larger units has consistently evened out premium vacancies at the sub-6% level since the second quarter of last year. On the other hand, vacancy across other grades continues to increase by slightly over 2% quarterly and is currently at 12.4%. Specifically, Grade A vacancy rose by 2% to 10.44% in 1Q 2012. Meanwhile, at 14.62%, vacancy in Grade B condominiums remains the highest across all segments.

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p. 8 | coLLiers internationaL

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL

Page 9: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

MAKATI CBD

COMpARATIVE RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES (%)

1Q 12 4Q 11 1Q 13F

LUXURY 6.0 6.2

OTHERS 12.4 10.9

ALL GRADES 11.7 10.5 11.0

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Rents

Luxury three-bedroom rental rates in both the Makati CBD and Bonfiacio Global City went up in the first quarter by over 4% to an average of P660 per sq m and P685 per sq m, respectively. The gap between the rental rates of the two districts is expected to narrow over the next twelve months as the completion of Raffles Residences in Makati may cause upward pressure on the average premium rates. In particular, this brings a projected annual growth of over 8%, higher than the 6% in Bonfiacio Global City; this will level out at the P710 to P715 per sq m range. In Rockwell Center, rates grew modestly at 1.30% to an average of p780 per sq m and will breach the p800 per sq m mark by the end of this year.

Makati CBD, Rockwell, Bonifacio Global Cityprime 3BR Units Residential Rents

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

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Makati CBD Residential Vacancy

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Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

p. 9 | coLLiers internationaL

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL

Page 10: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

METRO MANILA RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUMCOMpARATIVE LUXURY 3BR RENTAL RATES

1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY)

MAKATI CBD 455 - 860 415 - 840 4.78 502 - 919 8.06ROCKWELL 665 - 890 660 - 875 1.30 696 - 936 4.97BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 555 - 812 543 - 768 4.27 577 - 877 6.33

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

COMpARATIVE RESIDENTIAL LEASE RATESTHREE-BEDROOM pREMIUM, SEMI-FURNISHED

MINIMUM AVERAGE MAXIMUMApartment Ridge / Roxas Triangle Rental Range * 90,000 145,000 250,000 Average Size ** 210 280 330 Salcedo Village Rental Range 60,000 93,000 135,000 Average Size 170 190 330 Legaspi Village Rental Range 65,000 190,000 250,000 Average Size 120 210 280 Rockwell Rental Range 150,000 200,000 300,000 Average Size 200 260 330 Fort Bonifacio Rental Range 60,000 150,000 280,000 Average Size 130 200 300

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Capital Values

Average capital values for a premium three-bedroom unit in the Makati CBD surpassed that of Bonifacio Global City over the last two quarters. The prior’s capital values reached p114,000 per sq m last quarter or an annual growth of 10%, higher than the 8% growth with the latter’s P112,900 per sq m. On a quarterly basis, the Makati CBD capital values increased by 4.8% and will eventually exceed the P120,000 per sq m level by 1Q 2013. Meanwhile, in Rockwell Center, the completion of one Rockwell East pushed capital values to rise by 5.2% to an average of P140,000 per sq m. Despite the dearth in supply, outlook on secondary prices is expected to grow by 9.9% in the next twelve months.

* in pesos per month ** in square meters

p. 10 | coLLiers internationaL

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL

Page 11: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

METRO MANILA RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUMCOMPARATIVE LUXURY 3BR CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQ M)

1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY)

MAKATI CBD 78,000 - 150,121 74,230 - 144,200 4.8 89,454 - 157,301 8.2ROCKWELL 98,421 - 140,551 94,069 - 133,041 5.2 103,122 - 159,493 9.9BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 90,658 - 135,125 89,212 - 127,533 4.2 92,208 - 146,815 5.9

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

RETAILSupply

Over the last six months, Metro Manila retail stock improved, brought about by the newly completed retail developments. At present, there is about 5.2 million sq m of leasable retail space, 2.11% higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. Supply mainly increased across super-regional malls by 3.67% or an additional leasable space of over 100,000 sq m driven by the completion of Lucky China Town Mall in Binondo Manila. Meanwhile, some other developments which were completed over the last two quarters include BHS Central East Block in Fort Bonfacio which covers 10,000 sq m and Two Shopping Center in pasay which covers 50,000 sq m.

In an aim to further increase foot traffic and slacken competition, major mall developers are currently turning away from the traditional mall configuration, and are presently geared towards improving the shopping experience through the integration of new technologies, attractions and natural parks. The introduction of 3D devices in cinemas and the inclusion of pocket gardens and theme parks evidently became a major trend especially across major entertainment districts.

These are most likely to increase as retail developers plan major facelifts and continuous retrofitting over the long haul. Filinvest’s Festival Mall is expected to undergo a revamp which includes a new wing of about 50% of its leasable area. Besides the new open spaces, the mall will utilise its existing creek as a major waterway attraction. At a separate location, the company’s seafront SRP in Cebu will similarly use its beachside ambiance as the retail’s water feature. Likewise, SM Baguio is also set for an upgrade. Apart from an additional space of some 76,000 sq m, it is geared to obtain LEED certification followed by its integration of new open-air retail spaces, roof gardens, and landscapes of native plant materials. Meanwhile, Ayala Land is continually banking on its cultural districts emphasized by its upcoming retail development at the Santa Ana racetrack property.

Besides the on-site upgrades and improvements, expansion plans remains persistent across geographic reach. Robinsons Land has recently opened its 30th mall in Calasio, pangasinan. Besides this, the developer is also set to open Robinsons place palawan and Robinsons Magnolia this year. In Bacolod, SM Prime ramps up its expansion with the SM City Bacolod annex which will offer an additional space of over 80,000 sq m towards the end of 2014. Beyond regional level, SM Tianjin (530,000 sq m), branded as the world’s largest freestanding shopping centre, is set to be completed by the end of 2013. Moreover, Ayala Land plans to reopen Glorietta 1 and 2 towards the third or fourth quarter of this year. After the Abreeza Mall in Davao, the developer is also on track with its Centrio Mall (44,000 sq m), which is set to open by October.

Makati CBD Residential Capital Values

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

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3Q01

1Q02

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F

1Q12

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in p

eso

per s

q.m

.

Makati CBD Rockwell Bonifacio Global City

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80,000

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100,000

110,000

120,000

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140,000

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3Q01

1Q02

3Q02

1Q03

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F

in p

eso

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.

Makati CBD Rockwell Bonifacio Global City

p. 11 | coLLiers internationaL

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | HOTEL & LEISURE

Page 12: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

Demand

Vacancy rates, in both super-regional and regional malls across Metro Manila slightly increased by .07% or a total vacant space of about 42,000 sq m, lower than the 45,000 sq m of vacant space registered in the third quarter of last year. The average vacant space for super-regional and regional malls is roughly around 2,400 sq m and 600 sq m, respectively. Despite the numerous renovations of clothing and apparel stores coupled with the consistent retrofitting of malls, the occupancy rate remains at the 99% level driven by the strong demand from food and dining options and the growing presence of international brands. The outlook on vacancy is that it will remain stable while fewer households are seen to increase their expenses on goods and services according to the recent survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

METRO MANILA RETAIL VACANCY RATE (%)

4Q 11 1Q 12

SUpER-REGIONAL 1.04 1.09

REGIONAL 0.65 0.75

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

RETAIL STOCKMETRO MANILA (SQ M)

1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY)

SUpER-REGIONAL 3,051,353 2,943,353 3.67 3,051,353 0.00REGIONAL 1,115,378 1,115,378 0.00 1,115,378 0.00

DISTRICT / NEIGHBOURHOOD 1,055,734 1,055,734 0.00 1,117,734 5.87ALL LEVELS 5,222,465 5,114,465 2.11 5,284,465 1.19

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Rents

Rental rates in Ayala Center slightly increased by 0.2% to an average of p1,220 per sq m. Likewise, rental rates in Ortigas Center marginally improved by 0.6% to about P1,077 per sq m. Despite the perceived increase in fuel prices and eventually in the inflation rate, the confidence index improved, from -20.6 to -14.7% in the first quarter of this year. Rents may grow modestly by 2 - 3% in the next twelve months.

COMPARATIVE EFFECTIVE RETAIL RENTS (PESOS / SQ M / MONTH)

1Q 12 4Q 11 % chanGe (QoQ) 1Q 13f % chanGe (yoy)

AYALA CENTER 1,220 1,218 0.2 1,258 3.1

ORTIGAS 1,077 1,071 0.6 1,097 1.9

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

p. 12 | coLLiers internationaL

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | HOTEL & LEISURE

Page 13: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

Spending Indicators

Short by some 3,500 units, total car sales fell by almost 16% in the first two months of this year to 18,977 units. The latest data from the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. (CAMPI) shows that sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles registered 33% and 7% drops to 5,299 and 13,678 units, respectively. However, on a monthly basis, car sales grew by about 29% to 10,861 units – a slight indication of recovery and normalisation of the industry which was stalled from the disrupted production in Japan and Thailand. Furthermore, the industry is expected to improve this year as supply becomes gradually stable over the next few months.

0%

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950

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1,250

1,350

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2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

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Php

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m/ m

onth

Ayala Center

(Makati) Monthly Rent (Makati) YoY Increase (RHS)

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Makati CBD Retail Rent

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1%

1%

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4%

4%

550

650

750

850

950

1,050

1,150

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2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

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2Q11

3Q11

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2Q12

F

3Q12

F

4Q12

F

1Q13

F

Ph

p/ s

q m

/ mo

nth

Ortigas Centre

(Ortigas) Monthly Rent (Ortigas) YoY Increase (RHS)

Source: Colliers International Philippines Research

Ortigas Center Retail Rent

p. 13 | coLLiers internationaL

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | HOTEL & LEISURE

Page 14: Real estatemarketreport 1q12

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Copyright © 2011 Colliers International.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reason-able effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

-20%

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45,000

50,000

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4Q04

1Q05

2Q05

3Q05

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1Q06

2Q06

3Q06

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3Q07

4Q07

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3Q08

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2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

Car Sales YoY Change (RHS)

Source: Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines

Quarterly Vehicle Sales

PhIlIPPIneS | 1Q 2012 | AUTOMOTIVE