Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

36km outer domain/4km nested 36km outer domain/4km nested domaindomain

D1 (36km)

D2 (4km)

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

3-hr update cycle for both domains (runs 8 3-hr update cycle for both domains (runs 8 times daily) times daily)

Digital filter initialization performed on Digital filter initialization performed on both domains (reduces noise)both domains (reduces noise)

Bias removal on 4km domainBias removal on 4km domain Analysis and hourly forecast output saved Analysis and hourly forecast output saved

on both domains (analysis,1,2,3-hr on both domains (analysis,1,2,3-hr forecast)forecast)

80 members on 36km, 42 members on 4km 80 members on 36km, 42 members on 4km

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF ~3000 surface observations available for assimilation on 4-km ~3000 surface observations available for assimilation on 4-km

domain (~75% of all observations after terrain check)domain (~75% of all observations after terrain check) ~1500 observations assimilated, ~1500 for verification~1500 observations assimilated, ~1500 for verification Assimilation of radiosonde, cloud-track wind, and ACARS data Assimilation of radiosonde, cloud-track wind, and ACARS data

still occurs on both domainsstill occurs on both domains

36-km

4-km

Terrain Height (m)

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF Runtime for full 36km/4km 3-hr cycle: Runtime for full 36km/4km 3-hr cycle:

2:582:58 Improvements in near future (~month):Improvements in near future (~month):

1) Surface background variance inflation1) Surface background variance inflation2) Faster processors2) Faster processors3) Reduced latency3) Reduced latency3) Real-time graphics on web3) Real-time graphics on web

Analysis and forecast verification with Analysis and forecast verification with GFS, NAM, RUC, 4km GFS-WRF coming GFS, NAM, RUC, 4km GFS-WRF coming soon! soon!

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

Very early results (before bias removal):Very early results (before bias removal):

Analysis RMS errors against unassimilated Analysis RMS errors against unassimilated observations:observations:

4km GFS-WRF4km GFS-WRF 4km WRF EnKF4km WRF EnKF

Sfc Temperature 2.84 K 2.34 K Sfc Temperature 2.84 K 2.34 K

Sfc Wind 2.03 m/s 2.02 m/sSfc Wind 2.03 m/s 2.02 m/s

As was the case with the 12km runs, bias removal As was the case with the 12km runs, bias removal and variance inflation is expected to further and variance inflation is expected to further improve analyses…improve analyses…

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP

36km Mean

4km Mean

ANALYSIS

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

36km Mean

4km MeanNear-surface Windspeed,

MSLP 01-HR

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

36km Mean

4km MeanNear-surface Windspeed,

MSLP 02-HR

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

36km Mean

4km MeanNear-surface Windspeed,

MSLP 03-HR

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds

36km Mean

4km Mean

ANALYSIS

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds

36km Mean

4km Mean

01-HR

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds

36km Mean

4km Mean

02-HR

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds

36km Mean

4km Mean

03-HR

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

850-hPa Temperature

36km Spread 4km Spread

ANALYSIS

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

850-hPa Temperature

36km Spread 4km Spread

01-HR

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

850-hPa Temperature

36km Spread 4km Spread

02-HR

Real-time WRF EnKFReal-time WRF EnKF

850-hPa Temperature

36km Spread 4km Spread

03-HR