real world policy changes for a radically better future...driveless cars flying drones - 1 flying...

Real world policy changes for

a radically better future

Tony Czarnecki Managing Partner, Sustensis London, 3rd December 2016

An extended narrative of this presentation can be found at: www.sustensis.co.uk/sustainable_world

http://www.sustensis.co.uk/sustainable_sustainable_world

Agenda

Environmental

Climate change

Technological AGI runaway

Social disruption

Community Life Purpose

Social cohesion

Social Unemployment

Migration

Economic

Migration

Wealth creation

Wealth distribution

Unemployment

Political International and National conflicts

Systems: democracy & capitalism

Structures: International Organisations

Values

How can we live in a more sustainable and harmonious world?

Are we fast approaching

Technological Unemployment (TU)?

Harvard University and IBM’s projection of knowledge growth What does exponential change really mean?

If we assume Moore’s law to continue over the next 15 years, then

the technology would be about 1,000 times more efficient.

But combinatorial effects in other areas may lead to even faster

growth in efficiency and the fastest growth in productivity in history

Therefore, the global GDP will grow much faster and will double not

in 20 but rather in 15 years

What are the consequences of exponential knowledge growth?

Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/

This gap is to rise almost exponentially

What would be the consequences of faster productivity growth?

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/










According to Futurist Thomas Frey

by 2030 there will be 4 bn. people of working age

worldwide but there will only be 2 bn. jobs

Which jobs will most likely disappear by 2030?

Driveless cars Flying Drones - 1 Flying Drones - 2 3D Printers Contour CraftingBig Data & Artificial

Intelligence - 1

Big Data & Artificial

Intelligence - 2

Mass Energy

StorageRobots

Drivers Public Safety Agriculture36. Plastic press

operatorsHome Construction Writing Financial Services Energy sector Retail

1. Taxi Driver 7. Traffic cops20. Crop monitors/

consultants37. Machinis ts 41. Carpenters 47. News reporters

62. Financia l

planners/advisors

77. Energy

planners86. Retai l clerks

2. Limo driver 8. Meter maids21. Spraying

services

38. Shipping &

receiving

42. Concrete

workers48. Sports reporters 63. Accountants

78. Environmental

des igners87. Checkout clerks

3. Bus drivers9. Traffic court

judges22. Shepherds

39. Union

representatives

43. Home

remodel ing

49. Wal l s treet

reporters64. Tax advisors

79. Energy

auditors88. Stockers

4. Rental car

personnel

10. Traffic court

lawyers

23. Wranglers/

herders

40. Warehouse

workers44. Ci ty planners 50. Journal is ts 65. Auditors

80. Power plant

operators

89. Inventory

control lers

11. Traffic court DAs24. Varmint

exterminators

45. Homeowner

insurance agents51. Authors 66. Bookkeepers 81. Miners 90. Sign spinners

Delivery

Positions

12. Traffic court

support s taffSurveying

46. Real estate

agentsLegal Services

82. Oi l wel l

dri l lers ,

roughnecks ,

5. Truck drivers25. Land and field

surveyorsMilitary 67. Lawyers 83. Geologis ts Medical

6. Mai l carriers Miscelaneous26. Environmental

engineers52. Mi l i tary planners

68. Compl iance

officers/workers84. Meter readers 91. Surgeons

13. Parking lot

attendants27. Geologis ts 53. Cryptographers 69. Bi l l col lectors

85. Gas/propane

del ivery

92. Home

healthcare

14. Valet

attendantsEmergency Rescue 93. Pharmacis ts

15. Car wash

workers

28. Emergency

response teamsMedical Miscelaneous 94. Veterinarians

16. Courier service29. Search and

rescue teams54. Dieti tians

70. Meeting/event

planners

17. Food del ivery 30. Fi refighters 55. Nutri tionis ts 71. Cost estimators Maintenance

18. Pizza del ivery News Services 56. Doctors 72. Fi tness coaches 95. Pa inters

19. Postal del ivery31. Mobi le news

trucks57. Sonographers 73. Logis ticians 96. Janitors

Remote Monitoring 58. Phlebotomists74. Interpreters/

trans lators97. Landscapers

32. Construction

s i te monitors59. Radiologis ts

75. Customer

service reps98. Pool cleaners

33. Bui lding

inspectors60. Psychotherapis ts 76. Teachers

99. Grounds

keepers

34. Securi ty guards61. Counselors/

psychologis ts100. Exterminators

35. Parole officers 101. Lumberjacks

Tony Czarnecki based on: Thomas Frey - http://www.futuristspeaker.com/business-trends/101-endangered-jobs-by-2030/

http://www.futuristspeaker.com/business-trends/101-endangered-jobs-by-2030/











There are others that predict a similar trend.

Which jobs are most likely to disappear due to automation in 2030?

Boston Consulting Group predicts that Germany would need

10m extra employees in 2030. Source: The_Global_Workforce_Crisis_Jun_2014_till 2030

Why? Because they assume the GDP growth pattern and labour

growth pattern will be the same as over the last 20 years.

But not everyone agrees

How can we achieve global economic

and social sustainability?

Source: HM Treasury

UK Poverty line = 60% of median income

2030

1. Progressively increase the “Living Wage” so that in the UK it reaches the “poverty line”, i.e. 60% of median income in 2025

Source: OECD Annual Hours Database (see Table F of the Statistical Annex

Average annual no. of hours worked in OECD world in 1960 -2000

2. Cut down working hours, in the UK in line with Continental Europe

3. Allow earlier, flexible retirement age

Normal retirement age in various countries

CountryEarly

retirement age

Normal

retirement age

Employed

55–59

Employed

60–64

Employed

65–69

Employed

70+

Austria 60 (57) 65 (60) 39% 7% 1% 0%

Belgium 60 65 45% 12% 1% 0%

Cambodia 50 55 16% 1% 0% 0%

Denmark none 65 77% 35% 9% 3%

France 62* 65* 51% 12% 1% 0%

Germany 65 67 61% 23% 3% 0%

Greece 58 67[7] 65% 18% 4% 0%

Italy 57 67 26% 12% 1% 0%

Netherlands 60 65 (67) 53% 22% 3% 0%

Norway 62 67 74% 33% 7% 1%

Spain 60** 65** 46% 22% 0% 0%

Sweden 61 65 78% 58% 5% 1%

Switzerland 63 (61), [58] 65 (64) 77% 46% 7% 2%

Thailand 50 60 ? ? ? ?

United Kingdom 65 68 69% 40% 10% 2%

United States 62 67 66% 43% 20% 5%

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement

4. Re-design jobs - to be shared by 2-3 people or with robots

Source: CRANET SURVEY ON COMPARATIVE HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT International Executive Report 2011

Job Sharing: Europe – 28%

Frederick Hayek Richard Nixon Milton Friedman

The unlikely proponents of UBI

5. Introduce Universal Basic Income (UBI)

The approach to a full UBI for OECD countries

Source: World Economic Forum

OEC

D –

22

%:

https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/12/finland-basic-income/

Benefits Personal

Allowance

NI Tax State

Pension

Green Party

proposal

4160 2600 9360 After 2020 Paid by NI

increase

and

additional

tax

Only

exceptional

& housing

0 Lower &

Upper

limits

removed -

more

expensive

Averything

above UBI

taxed

0

Citizens Income

Trust

4160 1040 Pension

plus +

1560

Now 20 Only

exceptional

0 Max 12% Everything

taxed

including

UBI, extra up

to 3% tax for

high earners

Remains

Compass 4160 2600 8060 Now 14 Only

housing

0 NI Everything

taxed

including

UBI

0

Reform Scotland 5200 2600 5200 Now 13 Only

exceptional

0 0 Everything

tax, plus

extra up to

3% tax for

high earners

Remains

Royal Society of

Arts & Comerce

(RSA)

4160 3700 8060 Now 14 Only

exceptional

0 Max 12% Everything

taxed

including

UBI, extra up

to 3% tax for

high earners

0

Net

scheme

cost in £bn

Proposing organisation Cost and Benefits

UBI proposals for the UK

Adult

Annual UBI

pp (£)

Child

Annual UBI

pp (£)

Pensioners

UBI pp (£)

Start date

proposed

An example for an OECD country - the UBI Proposals in the UK

The UK Green party UBI Proposal

The UBI Proposal – What’s in it for you?

How will we pay for the Universal Basic Income?

6. Create large scale social engagement programmes for people on UBI

An extended “Utrecht” Model for UBI social engagement – one of the

variants or a combination:

Pay unconditional UBI – say £600 per month in advance

Pay unconditional UBI – say £600 per month in advance plus say £300

against minimum hours spent on voluntary work or in education

Pay conditional UBI – say £600 per month at the end of the month if

some minimum voluntary work done

Pay conditional UBI – say £600 per month in advance, which must be

returned if a minimum hours on voluntary work or in education is not

spent

7. A global level UBI Approach for developing countries

Introduce massive job sharing

Convert all benefits and tax allowances into the UBI – for

all citizens

Introduce the living wage partly funded from the Global

Wealth Redistribution Fund

Introduce UBI for unemployed combined with large-scale

education and voluntary work programme

How can we achieve global economic

and social sustainability?

1% of the world’s population owns half of the world’s wealth

The roadmap to the world of abundance and social order

New Charter of Human Values and Responsibilities

Freedom Sovereignty Justice Privacy Equality

International Court of Justice


New definition and meaning of Democracy



Democracy Type

Representational

Participative

Empowered

Consensual

Governance setup

Sep. Judiciary & Exec.

Two chambers

Max. 2 terms

Lobbying

Capitalism reformed

Land Ownership

Hereditary ownership

Stakeholders rights

New Banking Law

New Economic System

Constitutional prerequisites

Written Constitution

Secular state

Non-hereditary

Core liberties

Federalism

Localism

International Court of Justice



Democracy Type Governance setup Constitutional prerequisites

Re-designed Electoral Systems



Weighted Voting

Contribution

Engagement

All have one vote

Votes are weighted

Minimum electoral standards

Voting system

Max. term length

Public office standards

Private/public work

Info. disclosure

Capitalism reformed

New Economic System

International Constitutional

Court


New Global Organisations


Democracy Type Governance setup Constitutional prerequisites Private property


Weighted Voting Minimum electoral standards Public office standards



UDN (replacing UN) Int. Constitutional Court Federalism & Localism NATO redefined GWRF (replacing UNCTAD)

Capitalism reformed

New Economic System


Global programme of economic and social stability including management of migration

2-5% GDP binding contribution World’s economy boost


Democracy Type Governance setup Constitutional prerequisites


Weighted Voting Minimum electoral standards Public office standards

New Global Organisations



UDN (replacing UN) Int. Constitutional Court Federalism & Localism NATO redefined GWRF (replacing UNCTAD)

EU-style GWRF projects Migration wars avoided TU managed

Living wage increase Shorter working week Earlier retirement age UBI at 60% median wage Social engagement programmes

Capitalism reformed

New Economic System

Take two most recent difficult global problems: Ebola – speed, and the Paris Accord on climate change – the impact spread and duration?

I do not believe a vision like this would be implemented in a rational, well-coordinated way

So, most probably the world will go first through a near existential risk before it changes fundamentally the way how humanity is governed

But we should prepare now the first paving stones on the road to a better world that will provide enough wealth to be shared by everyone

Is this an overoptimistic and almost naïve vision?

The End

Personal

Rapid Transit

Systems

(PRTs)

Atmo-

spheric

Water

Harvesters

Shared

Economy

Personal

Assistance

Body

Modification

Drone

Industry

Sensor

Industry3D Printing

Internet of

Things

Big Data

Industry

Crypto

Currency

Industry

New Energy

Industry

Contoured

Housing

Industry

Driverless

Vehicle

Industry

Bio Industry

Retired

People

Industry

Neo-

Agriculture

Extreme

Innovation-1

Extreme

Innovation-2

1. Station

Designers &

Architects

11. Site

Collection

Lease

Managers

21.

Sharability

Auditors

26.

Quantified

Self

Assessment

Auditors

32.

Simulation

Specialists

40. Drone

Classificatio

n Gurus

48. Sensor

Inventors,

Designers, and

Engineers

55.

Automation

Auditors

66.

Locationists

72. Data

Interface

Mavens

78. Crypto

Currency

Bankers,etc.

90. Micro

Grid

Strategists

98.

Constructio

n Material

Designers

104.

Delivery

Dispatchers

110. Nano-

Medics

121.

Legacists

Managing

people’s

legacy

128. Plant-

Jackers and

Tree-Jackers

145.

Extinction

Revivalists

155. Space-

Based Power

System

Designers

2.

Circulation

Engineers

12. System

Architects

22.

Corporate

Sharing

Managers

27. Data

Context-

ualists

33. Genetic

Modification

Designers

and

Engineers

41. Drone

Standards

Specialists

49. Data

Stream

Organizers

56. Material

Experts

67. Lifestyle

Auditors

73.

Opportunity

Spotters

79.

Currency

Adoption

Specialists

91. Mass

Energy

Storage

Developers

99.

Structural

Engineers

105. Traffic

Monitoring

System

Planners and

Operators

111. Bio-

Factory

Doctors,

Strategists,

and

Developers

122.

Lifestyle

Housing

Designers

129.

Molecular

Gastronomis

ts

146.

Robotic

Earthworm

Drivers

156. Brain

Augmenting

Specilists

3. Traffic

Flow

Analyzers

13. Water

Supply

Transitio-

nists

23.

Opportunit

y Spotters

28.

Deficiency

Analyzers

34. Body

Modification

Ethicists

42. Drone

Docking

Designers

and

Engineers

50. Failure

Point

Assessors

57. Design

Engineers

68.

Efficiency

Consultants

74. Waste

Data

Managers –

80.

Anonymity

Advocates

92. System

Transitionis

ts

100. Site

Planners

106.

Automated

Traffic

Architects

and

Engineers

112. DNA

Scientists

123. Aging

Specialists

130. Bio-

Meat

Factory

Engineers

147. Avatar

Designers

157. Nano-

Weapons

Specialists

4. Command

Centre

Operators

14.

Purification

Monitors

24. Impact

Assessors

29. Skill

Quantifiers

35. Athlete

Qualification

Analyzers

43.

Operator

Certification

Specialists

51. Data

Transmission

Optimizers

58. Cost

Estimators

69.

Ownership

Network

Setup

Specialists

75.

Computer

Personality

Designers

81. Theft

Recovery

Specialists

93. Power

Conversion

Specialists

101. Setup

Teams

107.

Driverless

“Ride

Experience”

Designers

113. Gene

Sequencers

124.

Situational

Therapists

131. Supply

Chain

Optimizers

148. Gravity

Pullers

159.

Earthquake

Forecasters

5. Traffic

Transitionis

ts

15. Impact

Assessors

25. Involve-

ment

Specialists

30. Bio-

Waste

Optimizers

36. Cradle to

Grave

Lifecycle

Managers

45. Drone

Traffic

Optimizers

52. System

Anthropolog.

59. 3-D

specialists

70.

Augmented

Reality

Architects

76. Data

Hostage

Specialist

82. Crypto

Currency

Theorists

94.

Efficiency

Optimizers

102. Tear-

Down

Teams

108.

Driverless

Operating

System

Engineers

114.

Treatment

Monitors

125. Life-

Stage

Attendants

132. Urban

Agriculturali

sts

149. T ime

Hackers

160. “Heavy

Air”

Engineers

6. Impact

Minimizers

31.

Guardians of

Privacy

37. Super

Baby

Designers

53. Data

Actuaries

60. 3D

Printer

“Ink”

Developers

71. Avatar

Relationship

Managers

77. Smart

Contact

App

Developers

83.

Currency

Strategists

95. Benefits

Translators

103.

Cleanup

Teams

109.

Emergency

Crews for

when things

go wrong.

126.

Memorial

Designers

133. Bio-

Hacking

Inspectors

and Security

150. Clone

Ranchers

161.

Amnesia

Surgeons

7. Demand

Optimizers

38. Super

Baby

Psychologist

s

46.

Automation

Engineers

54. Last

Milers

61. 3D Food

Printer Chef

84.

Monetary

Exchange

Interface

Experts

96.

Secondary

Opportunity

Expansionis

ts

127.Octoge

n. Service

Providers

134.

Swarmbot

and Drone

Operators &

Managers

151. Body

Part & Limb

Makers

162.

Geoengineers

8. Secondary

Opportunity

Developers

39. Super

Baby

Advocates

62. 3D

Printed

Clothing,

Material

Specialists,

and Stylists

85.

Standards

Developers

97. Backlash

Minimizers

135. Plant

Educators

152. Global

System

Architects

9. Feedback

Loopers

63. 3D

printed

organs

agents

86. Lending

Tacticians

136. Plant

Psychologist

s & Plant

Therapists

153.

Memory

Augmentati

on

Therapists

10.

Constructio

n Teams –

PRTs

64.

Manufacturi

ng Process

Consultants

87. Seed

Capitalists

154. T ime

Brokers

65.

Maintenanc

e Guys

88. Privacy

Managers

89.

Secondary

Opportunity

Maximizers

Tony Czarnecki based on: Thomas Frey - http://www.futuristspeaker.com/business-trends/101-endangered-jobs-by-2030/

Skills needed by 2030













There will be 4bn people of the working age – how many will have no job in 2030?

Agenda

Environmental

Climate change

Technological AGI runaway

Social disruption

Community Life Purpose

Social cohesion

Social

Unemployment

Migration

Economic

Migration

Wealth creation

Wealth distribution

Unemployment

Political International and National conflicts

Systems: democracy &

capitalism

Structures: International Organisation

s

Values

How can we live in a more sustainable and

harmonious world?

real world policy changes for a radically better future...driveless cars flying drones - 1 flying...

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