realty income retail investor presentation 4q 2017 · net lease. agreements. actively manage the...

29
RETAIL INVESTOR PRESENTATION 4Q 2017

Upload: lamcong

Post on 02-Jul-2018

213 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

RETAILINVESTOR PRESENTATION

4Q 2017

1

ContentsCompany Overview 2

Dependable Dividends 6

Portfolio Diversification 10

Asset and Portfolio Management 17

Investment Strategy 20

Capital Structure & Scalability 24

Business Plan 28

All data as of December 31, 2017 unless otherwise specified

Statements in this investor presentation that are not strictly historical are "forward-looking" statements. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, which may cause the company‘s actual future results to differ materially from expected results. These risks include, among others, general economic conditions, local real estate conditions, tenant financial health, the availability of capital to finance planned growth, continued volatility and uncertainty in the credit markets and broader financial markets, property acquisitions and the timing of these acquisitions, charges for property impairments, and the outcome of any legal proceedings to which the company is a party, as described in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Consequently, forward-looking statements should be regarded solely as reflections of the company's current operating plans and estimates. Actual operating results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in this investor presentation. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly release the results of any revisions to these forward-looking statements that may be made to reflect events or circumstances after the date these statements were made.

2

Company Overview: The Monthly Dividend Company®

Leading real estate company: Largest net lease REIT with 5,172 properties and $22 billion enterprise value Founded in 1969; NYSE listing in 1994 (NYSE ticker “O”) Member of S&P 500 index Member of S&P High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats® index (1)

One of only 9 U.S. REITs with at least one “A” credit rating (2)

Consistent track record: 16.3% compound average annual shareholder return since NYSE listing in 1994 4.7% compound average annual growth in dividend since NYSE listing 81 consecutive quarters of dividend increases

(1) The S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats® index is designed to measure the performance of companies within the S&P Composite 1500® that have followed a managed-dividends policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 20 years.

(2) Excludes REITs without rated debt

3

Our Approach as “The Monthly Dividend Company®”Generate lease revenue to support the payment of growing monthly dividends

Support and grow monthly dividends for shareholders

Target well-located,Freestanding,single-tenant,

commercialproperties

Remain disciplinedin our acquisition

underwriting

Execute long-termnet lease

agreementsActively manage the portfolio to maintain

high occupancy

Maintain a conservative

balance sheet

4

Differentiated Business Model from “Traditional” Retail REITsLease structure and growth drivers support predictable revenue stream relative to other forms of retail real estate

Initial Length of Lease 15+ Years < 10 Years

Remaining Avg Term ~ 10 Years ~ 5-7 Years

Responsibility for Property Expenses Tenant Landlord

Gross Margin > 98% ~ 75%Volatility of Rental Revenue Low Modest / HighMaintenance Capital Expenditures Low Modest / HighReliance on Anchor Tenant(s) None HighAverage Retail Property Size / Fungibility 12k sf / High 150k–850k sf / Low

Shopping Centers and

Malls

Realty Income leases freestanding properties on a “triple-net” basis (tenant pays for taxes, insurance and maintenance)

Target Markets Many Few

External Acquisition Opportunities High Low

Institutional Buyer Competition Modest High

Shopping Centers and

MallsRealty Income growth opportunities through acquisitions

5

16.3%

10.8% 10.4%9.8% 9.7%

O Equity REITIndex

DJIA Nasdaq S&P 500

Compound Average Annual Total Shareholder Return Since 1994

Safety: Lowest Volatility, Highest Return Relative to Market IndicesSince 1994 NYSE listing, Realty Income shares have outperformed benchmark indices while exhibiting lower volatility

OStandard deviation of total returns measures deviation from average annual total returns since 1994 and uses annualized total returns for YTD period

15.5% 16.4%18.5% 18.9%

29.6%

O DJIA S&P 500 Equity REITIndex

Nasdaq

Standard Deviation of Annual Returns Since 1994

O

6

DEPENDABLEDIVIDENDS

7

795%

472%

Total Return % Price Change %

Dividends Matter to Long-Term Investor ReturnsIn a low-growth, low-yield environment, consistent dividend growth generates significant value for investors

41% of S&P 500 Index returns from 1994 through 2017 were attributed to dividends

3135%

613%

Total Return % Price Change % 80% of Realty Income returns from

1994 NYSE listing through 2017 were

attributed to dividends

S&P 500 Index Returns: With and Without Dividends (Oct 18, 1994(1) – December 31, 2017)

Realty Income Index Returns: With and Without Dividends (Oct 18, 1994(1) – September 30, 2017)

(1) October 18, 1994 = Realty Income NYSE ListingSource: FactSet

8

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018YTD

$0.90 $0.91 $0.931 $0.95 $0.98 $1.04 $1.09 $1.12 $1.15 $1.18

$1.24 $1.35

$1.44 $1.56

$1.66 $1.71 $1.72 $1.74 $1.77

$2.15 $2.19 $2.27

$2.39 $2.53

$2.63

Dependable Dividends That Grow Over Time Steady dividend track record supported by inherently stable business model, disciplined execution

Strong Dividend Track Record81 consecutive quarterly increases

95 total increases since 1994 NYSE listing

83% AFFO payout (based on midpoint of 2018 AFFO guidance)

4.7% compound average annualized growth rate since NYSE listing

One of only five REITs included in S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats® index

Data is as of January 2018 dividend declaration2018 YTD dividend reflects January 2018 dividend annualized

9

444%411%

305% 278%254% 252%293%

235%191%

154%129%

97% 107%78% 74% 80% 65% 44% 38% 29% 25% 15% 10% 4%

Reflects percentage of original investment made at each corresponding year-end period paid back through dividends (as of 12/31/2017)

Dividend Payback

31.9%29.8%

22.7%21.4%20.0%20.5%24.7%

20.5%17.3%

14.6%12.8%

10.1%11.8%9.2% 9.4%

11.0%9.8%7.5% 7.3% 6.3% 6.8% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 4.5%

Reflects yield on cost as of 12/31/2017 assuming shareholder bought shares at end of each corresponding year

Yield on Cost

The “Magic” of Rising Dividends: Yield on Cost, Dividend PaybackLong-term, yield-oriented investors have been rewarded with consistent income

10

PORTFOLIODIVERSIFICATION

11

Portfolio Diversification: Tenant

11different industries

54%of annualized rental revenue

TenInvestment grade rated tenants

6.5%5.1%

4.0%3.9%

3.6%3.6%

3.0%2.5%

2.2%2.1%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%1.8%1.7%1.7%

1.5%1.5%

1.2%

(1) Investment grade tenants are defined astenants with a credit rating of Baa3/BBB- orhigher from one of the three major ratingagencies (Moody’s/S&P/Fitch). 46% of ourannualized rental revenue is generatedfrom properties leased to investment gradetenants, including approximately 9% fromproperties leased to subsidiaries ofinvestment grade companies.

Top 20 Tenants represent:

Diverse tenant roster, investment grade concentration reduces overall portfolio risk

Investment grade rated (1)

12

Retail Tenants in Top 20 are Highly Insulated from Changing Consumer Behavior19 of top 20 tenants fall in at least one category (Service, Non-Discretionary, Low Price Point Retail or Non-Retail)

Service / Experiential

Non-Discretionary

Low Price Point

Service / Experiential Non-Discretionary

Low Price Point

Non-Retail

Non-Retail

TBC represented by National Tire & Battery / Walmart represented by Neighborhood Markets and Sam’s Club

13

Top Tenant Exposure: 2009 vs. TodayTop 15 tenants represent higher quality credit, less cyclical industries and greater diversification vs. 2009

Tenant Industry % of RentHometown Buffet Casual Dining 6.0%

Kerasotes Showplace Theatres Theatres 5.3%

L.A. Fitness Health & Fitness 5.3%

The Pantry Convenience Stores 4.3%

Friendly’s Casual Dining 4.1%

Rite Aid Drug Stores 3.4%

La Petite Academy Child Care 3.3%

TBC Corporation Auto Tire Services 3.2%

Boston Market QSR 3.1%

Couche-Tard / Circle K Convenience Stores 3.0%

NPC / Pizza Hut QSR 2.6%

FreedomRoads / Camping World Sporting Goods 2.6%

KinderCare Child Care 2.5%

Regal Cinemas Theatres 2.3%

Sports Authority Sporting Goods 2.0%

Total % of Rent - Top 15 Tenants 53.0%

Investment Grade % of Rent - Top 15 Tenants 3.2%

#1 Industry % of Rent – Restaurants 21.3%

#2 Industry % of Rent – Convenience Stores 17.0%

Top 15 Tenants as of YE 2009 Top 15 Tenants as of YE 2017

Bold tenants represent investment-grade rated credit

Tenant Industry % of RentWalgreens Drug Stores 6.5%

FedEx (Non-Retail) Transportation 5.1%

L.A. Fitness Health & Fitness 4.0%

Dollar General Dollar Stores 3.9%

Dollar Tree / Family Dollar Dollar Stores 3.6%

AMC Theatres Theatres 3.6%

Walmart / Sam’s Club Grocery / Wholesale 3.0%

Circle K / The Pantry Convenience Stores 2.5%

BJ’s Wholesale Clubs Wholesale Clubs 2.2%

Treasury Wine Estates (Non-Retail) Beverages 2.1%

Life Time Fitness Health & Fitness 2.0%

Regal Cinemas Theatres 1.9%

CVS Pharmacy Drug Stores 1.9%

Super America (Andeavor) Convenience Stores 1.8%

GPM Investments / Fas Mart Convenience Stores 1.8%

Total % of Rent - Top 15 Tenants 45.9%

Investment Grade % of Rent - Top 15 Tenants 24.7%

#1 Industry % of Rent – Drug Stores 10.6%

#2 Industry % of Rent – Convenience Stores 9.4%

14

Portfolio Diversification: Industry

3.2%

3.7%

4.5%

5.3%

5.5%

5.7%

7.5%

7.7%

9.4%

10.6%

Wholesale Clubs

Casual Dining Restaurants

Grocery

Transportation Services

Quick-Service Restaurants

Theaters

Health and Fitness

Dollar Stores

Convenience Stores

Drug Stores

Exposure to defensive industries:Top 10 industries represent strong diversification, significant exposure to non-discretionary, low price-point, service-oriented industries

No industry represents more than 10.6% of rent

Non-Discretionary

Service-Oriented

Non-Discretionary, Low Price Point

Non-Discretionary, Service-Oriented

Low Price Point, Service-Oriented

Low Price Point, Service-Oriented

Non-Discretionary

Service-Oriented

N/A (Non-Retail Exposure)

Low Price Point

Industry Retail Characteristics

15

Portfolio Diversification: GeographyBalanced presence in 49 states and Puerto Rico

PUERTO RICO

Represents percentage of rental revenue %

Texas 9.4%

California 9.3%

Illinois 6.2%

Florida 5.8%

Ohio 5.2%

New York 5.0%

% of Rental Revenue

1.0

<1

<1

<1

<1<1

<1

<1

<1

<19.3 1.6 1.6

<12.2

9.4

1.6

2.8

3.3

1.3

<1

1.41.6

3.1

6.2

2.3

2.9 5.2

2.2

1.4

1.9 4.3

5.8

2.2

2.8

2.8

<1

2.9

5.0

<1<1

1.2

<1

<1

1.9

1.5<1

<1

<1

<1

16

Portfolio Diversification: Property TypeRoots in retail with growing exposure to mission-critical industrial properties

80.7% 12.5% 4.6% 2.2%

Number of Properties

Percentage of Rental Revenue

RETAIL INDUSTRIAL OFFICE AGRICULTURE

4,999 116 42 15

Average Leasable Square Feet12,060 224,340 73,921 12,300

Percentage of Rental Revenue from Investment Grade Tenants39.3% 81.6% 85.3% -

17

ASSET ANDPORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

18

Active Management: Leasing and DispositionsProven track record of value creation, cash flow preservation and risk mitigation

Portfolio Management Largest department in the company Distinct management verticals

Retail Non-Retail

Leasing & dispositions

Healthy Leasing Results100% recapture of expiring rents since 1996

• Over 2,600 rollovers• Includes renewals and re-leases to new tenants

2017 lease rollover activity • Re-leased 259 properties with expiring leases

– 235 re-leased to same tenant (91%)– 24 re-leased to new tenant (9%)– Recaptured 106% of expiring rent

Asset Management Maximizing value of real estate Strategic and opportunistic dispositions Value-creating development Risk mitigation

Favorable Returns, Lower Portfolio Risk$666 million of dispositions since 2010• 2014: 6.9% cap rate / 11.6% unlevered IRR• 2015: 7.6% cap rate / 12.1% unlevered IRR• 2016: 7.3% cap rate / 8.5% unlevered IRR• 2017: 7.1% cap rate / 9.9% unlevered IRR

19

99.1% 99.2% 99.5% 98.4% 97.7% 98.2% 97.7% 98.1% 97.9% 98.5% 98.7% 97.9% 97.0% 96.8% 96.6% 96.7% 97.2% 98.2% 98.4% 98.4% 98.3% 98.4%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Based on % of properties occupied

Consistency: Steady Portfolio, Solid Fundamentals

• Careful underwriting at acquisition

• Solid retail store performance

• Strong underlying real estate quality

• Favorable tenant industries

• Prudent disposition activity• Proactive management of rollovers

Steady Same-Store Rent Growth

Consistent occupancy, same-store rent growth reflect limited operational volatility

Consistent Occupancy Levels, Never Below 96%

1.5%1.1%1.3%

1.8%1.5%1.4%1.4%

1.7%1.4%1.5%

1.1%1.3%1.3%1.4%1.1%

0.9%

1.6%

0.4%

1.0%1.0%

Annual same-store rent growth run rate of ~1.0% Long lease terms limit annual volatility

Sustained High Occupancy Rates

20

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

21

Investment Strategy: Underwriting ApproachReal estate focused / Motivated to exceed long-term cost of capital

• Property attributes – Quality of real estate, age, size, fungibility

• Market review – Strategic locations critical to generating revenue

• Demographic analysis – Five-mile population density, household income, unemployment trends

• Valuation – Replacement cost, market rents, initial cash yield, IRR over initial lease term

• Property due diligence – Site visits, vehicle traffic, industry, property type, title, environmental, etc.

REAL ESTATE ANALYSIS

CREDIT ANALYSIS

• Financial review and analysis

• Tenant research – Reliable, sustainable cash flow

• Industry research – Defensive, resilient to macroeconomic volatility

• Discussion with key management representatives

Strong unit-level cash flow coverage (specific to each industry)

Tenants with service, non-discretionary, and/or low pricepoint component to their business

Favorable sales and demographic trends

Significant markets (generally MSAs of ≥350,000 people) and/or mission critical locations

Primarily industrial and distribution properties leased to Fortune 1000, investment grade rated tenants

Long lease duration

Retail Non-Retail(principally Industrial)

22

Portfolio Highly Insulated From Retail E-Commerce and Economic Disruptors96% of total portfolio rent is protected against retail e-commerce threats and economic downturns

19%Of Total Portfolio Rent =

Non-Retail

77%Of Total Portfolio Rent =

Retail tenants with at least one of the following

components to their business:

ServiceNon-Discretionary

Low Price-Point IG Rating

Insulated from E-commerce pressures

Fortune 1000 tenants72% of rent from investment grade tenantsPrimarily industrial distribution exposure

Service / Experiential

Difficult or impossible for E-commerce to replicate

Non-Discretionary Low Price Point

Lower volatility during periods of economic distressLess incentive to price shop / immediacy a priority

Protects against one of the top drivers of retailer bankruptcies (high leverage)Average annual default rates for speculative grade credits are ~40x higher than IG credits

Investment Grade-Rated

23

Investment Strategy: Disciplined ExecutionConsistent, selective underwriting philosophy on strong sourced volume

2010 2011 2012 2013 (Ex-ARCT) 2014 2015 2016 2017

Investment Volume $714 mil $1.02 bil $1.16 bil $1.51 bil $1.40 bil $1.26 bil $1.86 bil $1.52 bil

# of Properties 186 164 423 459 507 286 505 303

Initial Avg. Cap Rate 7.9% 7.8% 7.2% 7.1% 7.1% 6.6% 6.3% 6.4%

Initial Avg. Lease Term (yrs) 15.7 13.4 14.6 14.0 12.8 16.5 14.7 14.4

% Investment Grade 46% 40% 64% 65% 66% 46% 64% 48%

% Retail 57% 60% 78% 84% 86% 87% 86% 95%

Sourced Volume $6 bil $13 bil $17 bil $39 bil $24 bil $32 bil $28 bil $30 bil

Selectivity 12% 8% 7% 4% 6% 4% 7% 5%

Relationship Driven 76% 96% 78% 66% 86% 94% 81% 88%

$10.5 billionin property-level acquisition volume

$4.2 billionin non-investment grade retail acquisitions

82%of volume associated withretail properties

58%of volume leased to Investment grade tenants

Broad blendof one-off, portfolio and entity-level deals

Relationship-driven>80% of closed volume since 2010

Key Metrics Since 2010 (Excluding $3.2 billion ARCT transaction):

Totals may not foot due to rounding

24

CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND SCALABILITY

25

Conservative Capital Structure

Common Stock: $16.2 billion – 72.6%

• Shares/Units outstanding – 285 million

Debt: $6.1 billion – 27.4%

• Unsecured Ratings – A3 / BBB+ / BBB+ • Unsecured Notes/Bonds - $5.3 billion • Unsecured Term Loans - $446 million• Mortgages - $320 million• Revolving Credit Facility - $110 million

Modest leverage, low cost of capital, ample liquidity provides financial flexibility

Debt 27.4%

CommonStock 72.6%

Total Capitalization: $22.4 billion

Totals may not foot due to rounding

26

Well-Laddered Debt Maturity Schedule

Key Metrics

• 98% fixed rate debt

• Weighted average rate of 3.8%(1) on debt

• Staggered, 9.3-year weighted average term for notes/bonds

• Ample liquidity with $1.89 bilavailable on revolver (L+85bps)

• Free cash flow of ~$140mm/yr

Limited re-financing and variable interest rate risk throughout debt maturity schedule

2.0%

2.7%

3.2% 5.7%

3.4%

4.6%

3.9%

5.8%

4.1%3.0%

3.7%

5.0%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029+

Unsecured Notes Mortgages Revolver Term Loan

Weighted average interest rate (1)

Laddered Maturity Schedule with Primarily Unsecured Investment Grade Rated Debt

Debt

Mat

uriti

es ($

mm

)

(1) Weighted average interest rates reflect variable-to-fixed interest rate swaps on term loans and revolver interest rate as of 12/31/2017

Assumes borrowing rate for revolver of 2.4% at 1-3-18 (when converted from Swingline loan). The Swinglineloan was outstanding for five calendar days.

27

5.8%5.0%

G&A as % of Rental Revenue(1)

$2,211

$7,301Adjusted EBITDA per Employee ($000s)

59 bps

26 bps

G&A as % of EV (bps)

Scalability of Costs Contributes to Higher Relative Valuation

• Efficiency and scalability of business model leads net lease industry

• G&A expense should be treated the same as dollar of property-level cash flow

• Consensus NAV estimates generally exclude impact of G&A expenses, thus no explicit “credit” for G&A efficiencies is recognized

• Capping G&A with real estate multiple degrades NAV/sh more for smaller portfolios with less scalability

Relative NAV valuation comparisons should consider G&A efficiencies

103 bps

36 bps

G&A as % of Equity Mkt Cap

93% EBITDA margins, never below 90% since 1998

1 G&A includes acquisition transaction costs; percentage of rental revenue calculation excludes tenant reimbursements from denominator YTD figures represent MRQ annualized, where applicable

64 bps

39 bps

G&A as % of Gross RE Book Value (bps)

28

Business Plan• Pay 12 monthly dividends • Raise the dividend • Remain disciplined in our acquisitions underwriting approach• Acquire additional properties according to our selective investment strategy • Maintain high occupancy through active portfolio management • Maintain a conservative balance sheet • Continue to grow investor interest in The Monthly Dividend Company®

NYSE: “O”