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TSXV:NAR TSXV: NAR Diamond Industry Headlines Reasons for Optimism! January 2020

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Page 1: Reasons for Optimism!northarrowminerals.com/_resources/2020-01-10... · (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy) • Nov. 2019: Luxury group LVMH purchased heritage Tiffany & Co. for $16.2

TSXV:NARTSXV: NAR

Diamond Industry HeadlinesReasons for Optimism!

January 2020

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This presentation contains projections and forward looking information that involvevarious risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation, statements regarding thepotential extent of mineralization, resources, reserves, exploration results and plans andobjectives of North Arrow Minerals Inc. These risks and uncertainties include, but arenot restricted to, the amount of geological data available, the uncertain reliability ofdrilling results and geophysical and geological data and the interpretation thereof andthe need for adequate financing for future exploration and development efforts. Therecan be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate. Actual results andfuture events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Theseand all subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements are based on theestimates and opinions of management on the dates they are made and are expresslyqualified in their entirety by this notice. The Company assumes no obligation to updateforward looking statements should circumstances or management's estimates oropinions change.

1

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

Forward Looking

Information

Qualified Person under

NI 43-101

Disclosure of a scientific or technical nature related to North Arrow’s projects in thispresentation has been reviewed and approved by Ken Armstrong, P.Geo. President andCEO of North Arrow and a Qualified Person under NI 43-101.

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NORTH ARROW PROJECTS

EXISTING DIAMOND MINE

Grassroots

7. Timiskaming (JV w SWY) 7

DIAVIKEKATI

VICTOR

RENARD

GAHCHOKUE

Discovery Stage

2. Mel (100%) Kimberlite discovery 2017/20183. Loki (100%) Kimberlite 465 discovered 2018;

1st Lac de Gras discovery in > 5 years4. LDGJV (Dominion) Kimberlite discovery in 20195. Pikoo (100%) Kimberlite discovery 2013/20156. Luxx (100%) Permitted & drill ready

Advanced Stage

1. Naujaat (100%) Largest Canadian diamond resource 100% owned by a junior company

Assessing a known kimberlite or diamond deposit

8

Brownfields Gold

1

8. Hope Bay (100%)

Next stage of diamond exploration could lead to discovery

2

5

6

Target development

Within 3km of TMAC’s Doris Mine; similar geology and structures

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Rough Diamond Mining Cutting and Polishing Diamond Jewelry

Market

HEADLINES SUGGEST IMPROVING SENTIMENT THROUGHOUT THE PIPELINE

DIAMOND PIPELINE

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Chow Tai Fook - China’s biggest by store count & world’s most valuable jewelry retailer.

• Opened 1776 new stores between 2011 and end of 2019.

• Projected to open over 1750 new stores (fastest pace in company’s history) before end of 2021; most in tier 2, 3 and 4 cities in mainland China.

• Has ruled out having lab-grown diamonds at its stores, noting that Chinese consumers are not interested in the category.

* Quote: Kent Wong, Managing Director, Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group, Rapaport News, September 2018

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE - POLISHED

On why they will not sell Lab

Grown Diamonds: “Chow Tai Fook is a jewelry brand as well as a diamond

brand, and our brand value is

authenticity, so we have to live up

to that”.*

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Purchase of Tiffany’s by LVMH (Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy)

• Nov. 2019: Luxury group LVMH purchased heritage Tiffany & Co. for $16.2 billion; biggest luxury brand acquisition ever; shows confidence in the future of natural diamond demand.

• LVMH purchase did not happen during a weak period; most recent quarterly said company-wide sales increased 1-3% year-over-year in the Nov. 1 through Dec. 24 “holiday period”.

• Tiffany Management noted China continues to “drive overall sales growth” producing a “strong double-digit increase” in growth in the period.

• Tiffany also entering India for the first time in 2020 through joint venture with Indian retail conglomerate Reliance.

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE - POLISHED

“Our position is lab-grown diamonds are not a luxury material. We don’t see a role for them in a luxury brand… I think luxury consumers will

continue to desire the rarity and amazing story of natural diamonds.”*

*Andy Hart, Tiffany’s Senior VP of Diamond and Jewelry Supply, Jan. 9, 2019, JCK.

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Cutters and Polishers - 85% (by volume) of the world’s rough diamonds are cut in India

• Monetary reform, financial fraud, government tax changes, difficult market conditions, China / US trade dispute – all had severe impact on viability of cutting and polishing businesses in India since 2017.

Headwinds lessening…

• September 2019 GST rate cut in India; 5% to 1.5% for diamond work.

• Total inventory held by the manufacturing segment fell from just over $40 billion at end of Q1 2018 to ~$30 billion as of October 2019 (18 months); estimates point to ~$30 billion as sustainable operating inventory for the mid-stream segment.*

• Argyle Mine’s declining production in 2020 & closure by end of year will remove ~13 million carats (2019*) annually; most cut in India.

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE - MIDSTREAM

*Paul Zimnisky, State of the Diamond Market, January 2020

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Lab Grown Diamonds “LGDs”- Increased interest in 2019

• Decoupling of the LGD pricing model from natural market; two markets emerging but can coexist.

• Chinese upgrading some HPHT production capabilities (12 billion cts/year industrial) to produce gem-diamonds.

• If distinguished from natural diamonds with certainty, LGD prices will continue to decline.

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE – LAB GROWN

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Lab Grown Diamonds “LGDs”- Increased interest in 2019

• Decoupling of the LGD pricing model from natural market; two markets emerging but can coexist.

• Chinese upgrading some HPHT production capabilities (12 billion cts/year industrial) to produce gem-diamonds.

• If distinguished from natural diamonds with certainty, LGD prices will continue to decline.

• Zimnisky Analogy: man-made ruby, emerald and sapphire (around for decades) can have price differential over 90% vs. natural.

*Bruce Cleaver, DeBeers CEO, The Diamond Conference 2019 in Gaborone, Botswana, November 2019.

“Production costs over time will become cheaper and as the prices of synthetic diamonds come down, so will

their value – this cannot be so for natural diamonds,”*

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE – LAB GROWN

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Showing Strong Confidence in Future of Natural Diamond Industry

• Commenced US$2 billion underground extension of Venetia mine in South Africa in 2019.

• In March 2019 announced plans for $2 billion expansion of Jwaneng in Botswana.

• Orapa mine (50% DB) approved Cut 3 project in August 2019; will extend to 2055; estimate: $2 billion

• Committed to a $468 million expenditure to build a new Namibian coast mining vessel

• Invested $170 million in marketing in 2018; 2019 expected to exceed that number; highest in over 10 yrs.

*Stephen Lussier - CEO of Forevermark & Exec VP of De Beers Group, Economic Times, October 2018.

“We are investing $10 billion in our natural business over the next 5 to 7 years for exploration, sustaining & growing supply, driving

consumer demand and maintaining consumer confidence”.*

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE – MINING

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Closing Some Chapters while Starting New Ones

• Rio Tinto’s Argyle Mine closing in 2020; produced 14.1 million carats in 2018; 13.0 million carats in 2019.

• Rio’s only other production, Diavik (60%), slated to close in 2025; produced 7.3 million carats in 2018.

• Still committed to the sector with grassroots exploration & JV with Star Diamond Corporation at FALC in Canada.

• Completed their $70.5 million earn-in in 2019.

*Arnaud Soirat, Rio Tinto’s Chief Executive for copper and diamonds, Reuter’s, Sept. 26, 2019

“Diamonds is a business we like a lot. It’s a very high-margin business in line with our strategy of value over volume. It makes a lot of sense. We

want to stay in the diamonds business,”*

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE – MINING

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JV with Catoca in Angola

• Luaxe project in Angola could take “5 to 7 years” to develop independent mine; pre-feasibility still to come.

• Could produce up to 8 million carats per year by 2025; big mine with significant capex.

• JV spent $200 million studying and developing it thus far.

• 1 million “trial mining” carats to hit market in 2020; processed at nearby Catoca mine.

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE – MINING

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JV with Catoca in Angola

• Luaxe project in Angola could take “5 to 7 years” to develop independent mine; pre-feasibility still to come.

• Could produce up to 8 million carats per year by 2025; big mine with significant capex.

• JV spent $200 million studying and developing it thus far.

• 1 million “trial mining” carats to hit market in 2020; processed at nearby Catoca mine.

• Innovative thinking is underway such as Alrosa marketing its strongest fluorescent diamonds as “Luminous Diamonds”

• "It will be a special line. A diamond which glows in a night club, in a theatre or even in the rays of sun... We see this demand in opinion polls and are sure that we will convert it into sales.“ Alrosa Chief Executive Sergei Ivanov

New Marketing Initiatives

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE – MINING

“Luminous Diamonds glow with a unique inner light that inspires women to reveal their inner strength and beauty” – Luminous Diamonds

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Underground at Karowe | Evolving the Rough Diamond Sales Platform

• Pre-production capital costs of $514 million to go underground.

• Expected to double the life of the mine allowing for production to 2040.

• Clara: new cloud & blockchain sales platform focused on demand driven à la carte sales of 1-to-15 caraters directly to manufacturers; trials currently taking place; adding third-party production in 2020.

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE – MINING

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• Improved transparency in entire pipeline; ‘mine to market’; eg: De Beers, Alrosa, Chow Tai Fook (TRACR); Lucara (Clara); increase value by building consumer trust in sourcing and supply-chain practices.

• Diamond Producers Association: made up of major producers Alrosa, DeBeers, Lucara, Rio Tinto, etc); to protect and promote diamond’s integrity and reputation, ensure the sustainability of the industry.

• $70 million for generic advertising in 2019; “Real is Rare”, “Three Billion Years in the Making”, “For Me, From Me”.

Other Important Mining Related Initiatives

DIAMOND PIPELINE UPDATE – MINING

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Future Rough Diamond Supply Spotlight

• 152 million carats produced in 2017;

• Diamond analyst, Paul Zimnisky predicts worldwide rough production to be 125 million carats by 2025 (includes 5 million carats from Luaxe); an 18% decline.

• Closure of Victor, Voorspoed& Argyle mines & forecasted declining production profiles from other world-class mines (Jubilee, Diavik, Ekati)

• Even with Luaxe at full 8 million carat production by 2026, total production still below 130 million carats; no other >1 million ct / year producers on horizon.

• Polished demand only static (US) or growing (China, India).

DIAMOND PIPELINE – SUPPLY DEMAND

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MARKET CAP OF STAR DIAMONDM

illio

ns o

f dol

lars

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0 April 2017 Star Diamond’s Market Cap is ~50 M: Pre Rio

Tinto option announcement

April 2017 North Arrow’s

Market Cap is ~20 M

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Mill

ions

of d

olla

rs

June 2017 – Post Rio Tinto Option

announcementStar Diamond market

cap doubled to ~$103M

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

MARKET CAP OF STAR DIAMOND

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$-

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$1.6 $2.2 $2.1 $2.3 $4.3 $2.9 $2.5 $5.0 $6.4

$201.2

MARKET CAP (IN MILLIONS)OF CANADIAN JUNIOR DIAMOND EXPLORERS

MARKET CAP COMPARISONS (as of January 14, 2020)

Mill

ions

of d

olla

rs

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• One of Canada’s largest under-evaluated diamond inventories at Naujaat’s Q1-4 kimberlite (~26 million carats)

• Two new diamondiferous kimberlite fields – Mel & Pikoo Projects

• 465 – Loki Project: first Lac de Gras kimberlite discovery in over 5 years

• Anchor – first kimberlite discovery by the LDG joint venture

• 6 drill-ready (and fully permitted) diamond properties; including 5 that host known diamondiferous kimberlite – Naujaat, Mel, Pikoo, Loki & LDG

DIAMOND DISCOVERIES: A CANADIAN LEADER

NAR: Canadian diamond sector’s most active & successful explorer over the last 7 years

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TSXV: NARKen Armstrong

President & CEO

Nick ThomasCommunity and Investor

Relations Manager

Suite 960-789 West Pender StreetVancouver, BC

Canada V6C 1H2Tel: +1.604.668.8354Fax: +1.604.336.4813

[email protected]

www.northarrowminerals.com

@narminerals

northarrowminerals

Diamond industry analysts/reporters:

Paul Zimnisky (PaulZimnisky.com)Rob Bates, JCK Magazine (JCKonline.com)

Edahn Golan (EdahnGolan.com)