rebound of us_supplier_industry_final[1]
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1 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Rebound of the US Supplier industry? – Fragile and not appreciated by the Street Supplier Study North America Detroit, MI – October 2012
2 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Contents
© 2012 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Rebound of the US supplier industry – Healthy emergence from the crisis with record level profits
No appreciation from the Street – Stock prices keep eroding
Paradox or new reality? – Industry undervaluation resulting from volatile markets, increasing complexity and uncertainty
Unlock value – How stock separation can help return to fair valuations
Supplier CEO agenda – From operations and strategy to decisive financial actions
3 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
US light vehicle sales recovered after the crisis – Much faster than expected
2008 2007 2006 2005 2012e 2011 2010 2009
Jan
Jul Apr SAAR
forecast 13.8
14.3 14.1
Source: LMC Automotive Forecasting; Roland Berger
17.0
12.5
US light vehicle sales [m units]
10.4
14.9 Sep
4 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
US supplier industry with an impressive rebound vs. peers – Record level profits in 2011 and H1/2012
Source: Roland Berger/Lazard supplier database
Revenue growth EBIT margin [%]
2012 H1
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2012 FC
100
2009 2008 2011 2010 2007 2006 2005
6.0
10.5
5.3
5.0
142
362
125
115
5 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Healthy balance sheets – US supplier industry is financially stronger than ever
Source: Roland Berger/Lazard supplier database
Net debt/equity ratio [%]1) Current ratio [%]2)
100
2012 H1
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2012 H1
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
88
34 28
21
215 208
168
119
1) Net debt / equity ratio = (Long term debt-cash)/(Book equity) 2) Current ratio = (Inventories+AR+Cash)/(AP+short-term financial debt)
6 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
But… no appreciation from the Street – US supplier index back to pre-crisis levels and flat
Source: ThomsonOne; Roland Berger
Jul 12 Jan 12 Jul 11 Jan 11 Jul 10 Jan 10 Jul 09 Jan 09 Jul 08 Jan 08 Jul 07 Jan 07
100
Roland Berger regional supplier stock index development
127
179
112
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Only a few suppliers have outperformed the market – Total of USD 23 bn destroyed in the last 20 months
Source: ThomsonOne, Yahoo Finance, Roland Berger
Total USD 23 bn in market capitalization destroyed during the last 20 months
+13%
Oct 12 Jul 12 Apr 12 Jan 12 Oct 11 Jul 11 Apr 11 Jan 11
100 -9%
S&P 500 Roland Berger US Supplier Index
Market cap. development US suppliers
8 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Neither constant EPS outperformance, nor strategic acquisitions seem to move the needle
1) Constantly exceeding: Actual EPS >5% over expectations in at least 2 of last 4 quarters (Q2'10-Q2'11) Constantly meeting: Actual EPS +/-5% of expectations at least 2 of last 4 quarters (Q2'10-Q2'11 Constantly missing: Actual EPS <-5% under expectations in least 2 of last 4 quarters (Q2'10-Q2'11
Source: ThomsonOne; Company reports; Reuters; Roland Berger
… constantly exceeding
… constantly meeting
… constantly missing
Impact on market cap. [%]
+8%
-20%
+6%
S&P: +25%
-4%
+10%
-23%
+8%
-15%
EPS performance1)
Impact on market cap.2) [%]
Strategic acquisitions – selected examples
2) 3 months period after announcement
Acquisition example 1
Acquisition example 2
Acquisition example 3
Acquisition example 4
Acquisition example 5
9 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
VOLATILE market outlook – with crisis still in mind A
Fundamental changes in the industry – already underway, increasing COMPLEXITY and UNCERTAINTY B
Ongoing diversification – fueling analyst AMBIGUITY C
Paradox – or new reality?
10 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
We believe the automotive market will not collapse – but the coming 12 months will be difficult
Source: LMC Automotive Forecasting; Roland Berger
36.3
2009
67.3
32.6
34.7
2008
66.0
35.9
30.1
2007
70.3
35.6
34.8
2013
82.1
40.9
41.2
2012
78.4
40.2
38.2
2011
75.4
37.9
37.5
2010
72.4
36.1
Forecast
H1 (Jan-Jun)
H2 (Jul-Dec)
+4.0%
+1.9% +7.7%
+6.0% +1.8%
+4.7%
Global sales of light vehicles [m vehicles]
+x.x% = YoY growth rate
11 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
We expect many core markets to further slow down in H2/2012 and H1/2013
= Forecast
3%2%
-1%-2%
9%14%
H2/13 H1/13 H2/12 H1/12 2011 2010
9%7%8%5%4%
17%
H2/13 H1/13 H2/12 H1/12 2011 2010
7%
3%
7%
13%
9%7%
H2/13 H1/13 H2/12 H1/12 2011 2010
12%
-13%-5%
34%
-11%
1%
H2/13 H1/13 H2/12 H1/12 2011 2010
6%
-6%-12%
-8%
0%-6%
H2/13 H1/13 H2/12 H1/12 2011 2010
JAPAN/KOREA
CHINA NAFTA WESTERN EUROPE
WORLD SOUTH AMERICA
Global sales of light vehicles [YoY change in %]
Source: LMC Automotive Forecasting; Roland Berger
8%
2% 2%
6% 4%
8%
H2/13 H1/13 H2/12 H1/12 2011 2010
12 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2.5 0 5.0
5.2
~5.5
’11 ’10 ’12 H2
~5.0
’12 H1
’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03 ’02 ’01
Difficult market conditions have already shown an impact on OEMs – Even luxury OEMs revising targets
EBIT margin of OEMs1) [%] Development of OEMs in H1/2012 vs. 2011
Source: FactSet; OEM's annual/half-yearly reports; Roland Berger
1) n = 14 (BMW, Daimler, Fiat, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Mazda, Nissan, PSA, Renault, Suzuki, Toyota, Volkswagen) 2) Excl. Chrysler; 2011 margin excl. extraordinary effects of approx. EUR 1.1 bn
Effect of Toyota recovery after Tsunami-related collapse in 2011 approx. 1%-pt.
Operating margin [%]
Sales [m vehicles]
0
2 1
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Suppliers feel the heat – OESA Sentiment Index is consistently falling
Source: OESA
4650
Sep 12
May 12
Jan 12
Sep 11
May 11
Jan 11
Sep 10
May 10
Jan 10
Sep 09
May 09
Jan 09
Sep 08
May 08
Jan 08
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
OESA Supplier Sentiment Index
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Profit margins are further deteriorating in 2012 – and will also hit the US supply base
EBIT margin of auto suppliers [%] Key profit drivers
Source: Roland Berger/Lazard supplier database
> Sales considerably higher than 2010 > Extra volume at lower margins due to fully
utilized capacity (special shifts, premium freight, etc.)
2011
H1 2012
> Suppliers highly dependent on European volume brands and/or CVs saw sales and profits drop already in H1
> Suppliers focused on US still at record levels
H2 2012
> Almost all suppliers adjusting sales expectations, Premium and luxury OEMs revise targets
> Suppliers focused on US start seeing impact > Counter-effect of falling raw material prices not
sufficient to compensate for market downturn
2012 H2
2012 H1
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
6.0 ~5.0-5.5
GLOBAL ~4.5-5.0
5.5
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Macro-economic outlook: Volatile economic development in all major regions – Will the US be affected next? EUROPE
> Most likely scenario is "no change"
> But: Devastating effects could hit the industry
CHINA
> Politics-fueled investment boom likely to restart after change in leadership…
> …but on a lower level and with different focus and mix
US
> Reduction of public deficit by half, but… – Potential GDP growth down
to 0.5% – Danger of double-dip
COLLAPSE of the Euro zone?
SLOWER GROWTH in China a new reality?
USD 600 bn FISCAL CLIFF in 2013?
Source: Roland Berger
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VOLATILE market outlook – with crisis still in mind A
Fundamental changes in the industry – already underway, increasing COMPLEXITY and UNCERTAINTY B
Ongoing diversification – fueling analyst AMBIGUITY C
Paradox – or new reality?
17 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
The only thing that's certain is uncertainty – What "visionaries" have said about the future…
Source: Roland Berger; Research
"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years." Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp., 1955
"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" H.M. Warner, co-founder of Warner Brothers, 1927
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Chairman of IBM, 1943
"The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication."
Western Union internl memo, 1876
"If anything remains more or less unchanged, it will be the role of women." David Riesman, conservative American social scientist, 1967
Technology
Media
IT
Communication
Equality
18 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Megatrends are getting real – Evidence of recent development
Source: Roland Berger
GEO-POLITICAL CHANGE
China economic slowdown
High volatility/ variability of governments
Euro zone instability
SUSTAIN-ABILITY
Crisis leading to "de-focus"
Kyoto protocol successor
Voluntary CO2 targets become a must
CHANGING TECHN-OLOGY
Ghosn: "Over 5 m EV in China by 2020"
A123 advance in battery technology
Japan university new electrode
patent
Dynamic traffic lights/intersections
EVOLUTION OF MOBILITY
Google self-driving car
Vehicle platooning
Overcapacity for traditional
manufacturing model
Car sharing
CHANGING DEMO-
GRAPHICS Megacities on the rise
Ongoing population aging
19 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
This development is happening at an increasingly faster rate than expected
Source: Bio-AgtiveTM; Montana State University; Freie Universität Berlin; Chaotic Moon Labs; Roland Berger
Recent examples of technology innovation
RECYCLING OF EMISSIONS
DRIVING VIA BRAIN WAVES
> Bio-AgtiveTM developed a system that injects cooled exhaust from diesel emissions into the soil during seeding
> Montana State University show plant growth and grain yields when seeded with exhaust are similar to those seeded with recommended fertilizers
> Freie Universität Berlin built a vehicle with embedded brain wave patterns that responds when participants think "brake," "accelerate," "turn left," "turn right"
> Chaotic Moon Labs has a motorized skateboard controlled by an on-board tablet that processes your thoughts to accelerate and stop
20 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
> Change in OEM powerhouses – Traditional OEMs are losing importance
> China on the rise – Chinese and other foreign competitors are already on our home turf
> Changes in personal mobility – The love affair with the automobile is ending
> Overcapacity – Excess overcapacity and legacy will further harm the industry
We are right in the middle of an ongoing fundamental change of the industry
Source: Roland Berger
21 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Change in OEM powerhouse – Traditional OEMs are already losing importance
Top 10 CV manufacturers (GVW > 6t)
Source: LMC Automotive Forecasting; Roland Berger
THE NEW OEM POWERHOUSE > Industry landscape has been
turned upside down in only 5 years
> 6 of the top 10 OEMs are now coming from emerging markets
> Similar developments expected in LV space – since many CV players are also active in LV
2005 2011
1 Daimler Dongfeng
4 Dongfeng Tata
5 Paccar CNHTC2)
6 International Volvo
7 FAW1) Paccar
8 Ford MAN
9 VW/Scania BAIC3)
10 IVECO Ashok Leyland
2 Volvo Daimler
3 Tata FAW1)
1) FAW: First Automotive Works; 2) CNMTC: China National Heavy Duty Truck Corp.; 3) BAIC: Beijing Automotive Industry Corp.
22 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
China on the rise – Chinese and other emerging market competitors are already on our home turf
Supplier market shares [% of top-150] Acquisition volume of emerging market suppliers [USD m]
Source: ThomsonOne; Roland Berger
EMERGING MARKET SUPPLIERS
US SUPPLIERS
1,451
506
26
2011 2006 2002
1,033
151 6
IN THE US
IN WESTERN EUROPE
14% 7% 5%
42% 33% 24%
2002 2006 2011
23 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Changes in personal mobility – The love affair with the automobile is ending
Source: JAMA; University of Michigan; USA Today; Roland Berger
Personal interest development1) Teens with a license in the US2)
6 5 4 3 2 1 10 9 8 7
PAST STUDENTS (Current age in 40's & 50's)
CURRENT/FUTURE STUDENTS (Current age in early 20's)
A.
"If I didn't have a computer or have a cellphone, I would definitely push myself more to get a license to go out and do things."
--Hannah, 17
19
80%
18
75%
17
66%
16
44%
Age 1980
1) JAMA market research of personal vehicles among university students 2) University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute
18
61%
17 19
45% 70%
16
28%
2010
6 10 5 9 4 8 3 7 2 1 17
A.
Preference
Preference
24 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Overcapacity – Excess overcapacity and legacy will further harm the industry
> Global overcapacity of >30 m in 2016
> New engine producers, new materials, and new business models will further increase pressure on traditional manufacturing model
North America
Western Europe
China Manufacturing forecast 2016 [m light vehicles]
Actual production
17.0
Un- utilized
2.1
Production capacity
19.2
Actual production
14.6
Un- utilized
5.3
Production capacity
19.9
Actual production
29.0
Un- utilized
11.2
Production capacity
40.2
4.6 17.6 13.0 6.0 20.0 14.0 6.2 23.4 17.1 2011
Source: LMC Automotive Forecasting; Roland Berger
25 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
New business models
Industry changes constantly increase complexity for suppliers – With limited financial resources…
Changing supplier playing field… … at continuous cost pressure
Technology evolution New players
New competitors arising Aging society
Need for manufacturing flexibility
New regions
New OEMs Tightening regulations
Changing customer preferences
Source: Roland Berger
…increases complexity
Price pressure from OEMs
Raw material price increase
Rise in financing cost mid-term
Low-cost competition
26 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
… in an uncertain environment
Source: Roland Berger
Example: 2020 forecasts for alternative powertrains Pure BEV BEV and PHEV Fuel cells
~1 m (1%) Avicenne Energy ~2 m (2%) J.D. Power, IEA1)
~4 m (4%) Deutsche Bank ~5 m (5%) Poth, RB high
~6.5m (6%) BCG low
~7.5 m (7%) Frost & Sullivan
~9 m (8%) BCG high, Fraunhofer low
~11 m (10%) Carlos Ghosn March 2011
~27 m (25%) Fraunhofer high
5 m (5%) Gartner low
7 m (6.5%) IEA
9 m (8%) Gartner high
10 m (9%) McKinsey opt., MIT, Deutsche Bank
>10 m (>10%) RB high (Upside scenario)
1 m (1%) McKinsey cons. 1.5 m (1.5%) Avicenne Energy
4 m (4%) Bosch
0.4 (0.4%) Pike research (Upside scenario) <0.01 (<0.01%)
27 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Fundamental changes in the industry – already underway, increasing COMPLEXITY and UNCERTAINTY B
VOLATILE market outlook – with crisis still in mind A
Ongoing diversification – fueling analyst AMBIGUITY C
Paradox – or new reality?
28 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Increasing volatility and complexity is increasing diversification – Suppliers are adjusting to the new reality
New
Traditional
Adjacent
Traditional New Adjacent
Markets/ industries
Products/technology
Source: Roland Berger
29 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Diversification leads to ambiguity – The Street seems to heavily discount diversified suppliers
Source: Roland Berger
Selected diversified supplier consolidated EV vs. SOTP EV
4.15.2
3.3
6.1
Supplier 2 Supplier 3 Supplier 1 Supplier 4
7.98.4
4.9
8.1
Consolidated
SOTP
Discount vs. Median
-25% -33% -38% -48%
7.35.33.5
6.3
2.55.13.0
5.2
Enterprise value using median EV/EBITDA multiple EV/EBITDA MIN – MAX multiple range
30 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Peer group confusion due to diversification – Analysts have a clearer view on pure play comps than on diversified
Source: Analyst reports; Bloomberg; Roland Berger
4.75.1
3.3
4.3
5.66.1
7.1
4.34.5
5.1
3.34.1
3.5
4.54.0
2.8
4.44.5
3.24.0
3.43.7
2.4
0.9Industry Min 0.1
Industry Med 5.0
Industry Max 15.1
Min Actual as of 9/27/12 Max
PURE PLAY DIVERSIFIED
EV/E
BITD
A
MULT
IPLE
rang
e
31 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Summary: We have to face a VUCA environment as new reality
Source: Roland Berger
V olatile markets, where
… And corresponding CONSERVATIVE VALUATIONS
U ncertainty and
C omplexity are increasing, leading to
A mbiguity of investors
32 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Today's reality: Undervaluation could further depress the upside of strategic actions
Source: Roland Berger
Acquisitions Strategic sale/JV > Shareholders would not receive fair value
for any sale/JV given the pre-existing valuation discount
> Acquisitions might further reduce stock value due to increased diversification
> Any valuation appreciation gained through an acquisition will likely be hampered due to the pre-existing valuation discount
STRATEGIC ACTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AFTER FAIR STOCK APPRECIATION TO ENSURE SHAREHOLDERS CAPTURE ALL THE INHERENT VALUE
Impact of undervaluation on strategic actions
33 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Options to unlock fair value – Transparency and communication are key in line with organizational alignment
Source: Roland Berger
ORGANIZE, COMMUNICATE AND IMPLEMENT
Transparent communication > Clearly outline company's plan for growth – for each business unit > Communicate relevant comps for each BU > Compare BU growth and profitability with relevant market > Point-out potential synergies between BUs
Organizational alignment > Organize business units with clearly defined strategic goals – Clear
cut business unit structure if underlying markets are different > Provide the resources and guidance necessary to achieve the
strategic goals
34 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Case study: DiverseCo active in two completely different market segments – and undervalued by USD 1.5 bn
Source: Company reports; ThomsonOne; Bloomberg; Roland Berger
EV/EBITDA Multiples Valuation [USD bn]
Business Unit 1: "Commodity"
> Stagnating growth of addressable market
> Commodity types and low margin business
> Company outperforms peers
Business Unit 2: "Tech Driven"
> Strong market growth > High margin business > Company grows in line with market
2.9 Min
5.5 Med
9.2 Max
6.5 Min 7.8 Med 8.4 Max
3.3
3.0
1.9
Consolidated EV
SOTP EV
4.8
EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.6x used for the consolidated company
EV/EBITDA multiples of 5.5x for Commodity BU and 7.8x for Tech Driven BU
35 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Case study ctd': Stock separation prior to strategic actions can protect potential acquisitions from today's low valuations
Consolidated Unlock value through separation
Source: Company reports; ThomsonOne; Bloomberg; Roland Berger
3.3
New EV
5.0 Acquisition
Acquisition
Consolidated EV
1.9
New CommodityCo
EV
>3.0 Acquisition
CommodityCo EV
3.0
New TechCo
EV
>4.0 Acquisition
TechCo EV
4.6 4.6 Multiple 5.5 ~5.5 Multiple 7.8 >7.8 Multiple
Consolidated EV
A B
1 2
1 2
>7.0
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Stock separation of assets can represent a significant valuation increase – With relatively low risk
Source: Yahoo Finance; OneSource; Google Finance; Roland Berger
PROS CONS/RISKS
STOCK SEPARATION WILL INCREASE TRANSPARENCY FOR BETTER VALUATION OF INDIVIDUAL ASSETS IN THE PORTFOLIO
> Increased asset transparency will result in a higher combined valuation
> Legacy and brand may be preserved through licensing between entities
> Leaner, focused operations should streamline performance
> Strategic actions are more accretive and value will be unlocked
> Institutional investor base could change due to portfolio investment requirements of market capitalization, credit rating, index, etc.
> The market will only give a valuation increase if independent management teams are identified and a clear growth strategy is communicated
> Some cross-functional knowledge may be lost
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Groceries & Snack Foods
> In August 2011, Kraft Foods announced a split into two companies: – A fast growing global snacks
business – A slower-growing North
American grocery business > On Oct 3, 2012 the stock split was
completed
Home and Commercial Security Oil & Gas, Chemical Processing
> In May 2012, ConocoPhillips split into two companies: – ConocoPhillips – oil and gas
exploration and production – Phillips 66 – oil and gas refining
and chemical processing
Other industries have chosen split-offs to unlock asset values, increase focus, and make M&A activities more accretive
MOTIVATION > Unlock value of high growth
assets and improve product focus
MOTIVATION > Position assets for growth
driven M&A and potential sale
MOTIVATION > Improve equity valuation in
creating two pure play companies
Source: ThomsonOne; Press research; Roland Berger
> In September 2011, Tyco announced its intention to split into three companies: – ADT residential security – Flow control (e.g., pipes and
valves manufacturing) – Commercial and fire security
38 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
> Stock price has appreciated 13% since the announcement
> Kraft stock in-line with snack comps > Stock split completed Oct 3, 2012
> Stock price has appreciated 26% since the announcement
> Highest valuation improvement in its peer group
> Since May 3, 2012: – Phillips 66 has appreciated by 27% – ConocoPhillips has appreciated by 3%
Stock markets are clearly appreciating these moves
Source: ThomsonOne; Press research; Roland Berger
130%
120%
110%
100%
90% 0%
+19%
+16% +13%
+5%
-7%
Announcement
120%
110%
100%
0% Sep 12 Aug 12 Jul 12 Jun 12 May 12
130%
+27%
+3%
0%
Split-off completed 140%
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
0% Jul 12 Jan 12 Jul 11
+26%
+22%
+12%
+12%
-13%
Announcement
Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12
S&P 500
S&P 500
S&P 500
Stock price development
39 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Exciting times ahead – The CEO Agenda 2013
Safeguard 2012 and 2013 profitability through focused and continuous improvements in OPERATIONS
Be prepared for the volatile macro-economic outlook and ensure STABILITY
Carefully choose STRATEGIC ACTIONS to capture the ongoing transformation of the industry
Carefully watch STOCK PRICE develop-ment and potentially take decisive actions
1 2
3 4
Source: Roland Berger
40 12-10-18-RB-Rebound of US Supplier Industry_mail out-F.pptx
Your contact in North America…
Source: Roland Berger
Thomas F. Wendt Partner Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
[email protected] +1 (248) 729-5000