Recent Activities at the NOAA Recent Activities at the NOAA Space Environment CenterSpace Environment Center

Recent Activities at the NOAA Recent Activities at the NOAA Space Environment CenterSpace Environment Center

Dr. Tom Bogdan, DirectorPresented by: Dr. Doug Biesecker

European Space Weather Week 2006

Photo Courtesy: Alistair McNoe

National Oceanic & Atmospheric AdministrationNational Weather ServiceNational Centers for Environmental PredictionBoulder, Colorado, USA

OverviewOverview

•Customer growth for space weather servicesCustomer growth for space weather services

•Status of observing systemsStatus of observing systems NOAA Geostationary Operational EnvironmentalNOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Satellite (GOES) Advance Composition Explorer (ACE)Advance Composition Explorer (ACE)

•SEC 2007 - 2013SEC 2007 - 2013Solar Wind measurementsSolar Wind measurementsCoronagraphCoronagraphGOESGOESTransition research and models to operationsTransition research and models to operations

A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA

space weather services today:

• U.S. power grid infrastructure • Commercial airline industry • Dep. of Transportation (GPS) • NASA human space flight activities • Satellite launch and operations • DoD Operations

DOENuclear Reg Comm

SchlumbergerNY/PJM Grid

BallLoral

NESDIS/SOCCDigital Globe

BoeingLockheedAerospaceEchostar

NASASpace Command

ISS AstronautsFAA

AmericanUnited Airlines

NorthwestContinental

Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherCustomersCustomers

NOAA SpaceEnvironmentCenter

Sunspot CyclesSunspot Cycles

Mars Missions Commercial Space Transportation GPS Survey

Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology

Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation

NOAA space weather alerts and NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by warnings are distributed by organizations to sister agencies and organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups…subordinate groups…

NOAA/SECRadiation

Alert/Warning

NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group

NASA Mission Control•NASA Management•Flight Control•Biomedical Engineers•Surgeon

ESA (Europe) Mission Control

NASDA (Japan) Mission Control

CSA (Canada) Mission Control

RSA (Russia) Mission Control

Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems

Lockheed Martin Management

Service Begins

SEC Product Subscription Registrations2005 - 2006

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38593645

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30732882

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Growth continues through Solar Minimum…

HF Communication only

Airlines and the Polar RoutesAirlines and the Polar Routes

• Airlines rely on HF Radio (3-30 MHz) inside the 82 degree circle.

• Federal Aviation Regulation Sec. 121.99 – aircraft must have two-way radio communication over the entire route with dispatch office and air traffic control.

• Airlines re-route flights away from polar routes during radiation and geomagnetic storms. Cost can exceed $100,000 per flight.

Significant Growth Areas…

Crosspolar Traffic Levels from 2000 through 2005

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SEC GPS Customer GrowthSEC GPS Customer Growth

• Land mapping, construction, and surveying• Exploration and earth studies• Precision positioning of offshore drilling rigs, ultra-deepwater drilling ships, and pipeline lay barges • Mining operations• Airline Navigation Systems• Airborne survey operations including LIDAR survey operations• Rail surveys for track spacing• Surveying transmissions lines for the powerline industry• Precision farming

For 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct 2003, the vertical error limit (50 meters), was exceeded. Commercial aircraft were unable to use WAAS for precision approaches.

Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)

AE & E Trucking, Etc., LLC GlobalSantaFe Drilling Co. Portland Natural Gas Transmission

AEI-CASE Engineering GRW Aerial Surveys, Inc. Raymac Surveys

Airmag Surveys Halcyon Exploration Company Rockwell Collins, Inc.

Associated Engineers, Inc J. D. Barnes Ltd. (survey) Schlumberger

Athens Group (oil & gas) Johnson Engineering SP Surveys

Baker Hughes (drilling) Jones, Wood & Gentry, inc Surveying and Mapping

Banks Engineering KCI Technologies Target Well Control

Barr Engineering Co. Naval Undersea Warfare Center Teledyne Brown Engineering, Inc.

Black Hawk County Engineer NC Geodetic Survey The Boeing Company/GPS Ops

Boeing Nexen Inc. (oil) The Keith Companies,Inc

Carver County Survey Office NOVA Engineering & Consulting The Troyer Group

Christopher Burke Eng Ltd. Old Dominion Freight Lines Transocean Drilling

Clarida Engineering Co. Olson Trucking U.S.Coast Guard

DGR Consultants Omnistar, Inc. Unintech Engineers

Discovery Management Grp Oxy (oil & gas) Vickrey & Associates, Inc.

Earth Energy Consulting Pape-Dawson Engineering WesternGeco/Schlumberger

Eastern Topographics PGS Onshore Winzler & Kelly Engineers

Excel Geophysics Planning Consultants, Inc. Zonge Engineering

Sample GPS Customer List

Aviation GrowthAviation GrowthNext 6 Years:

Airlines operating US-China routes go from 4 to 9

Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249

Next 12 Years:

1.8 million polar route passengers by 2018

Space Commercial Space Commercial TransportationTransportation

- 15,000 passengers and Revenues in excess of $1 billion per year by 2021 Futron’s Space Tourism Market Study:

Space transportation scenario by 2030 suggests 5 million passengers into space per year(CNN Science & Space Friday, September 24, 2004)

• GOES-12 SXI - Anomaly occurred on Sept 18, 2006. The failure of at least one additional front entrance filter (one had failed in Nov, 2003) is suspected. Return to operations date is unknown.

• STEREO – Preparing for acquisition of real-time data.

• GOES 13 – Successful launch on 24 May. Spacecraft goes into storage on Dec. 27, 2006.– In the mean-time, check out the images above

Current Status of Observing SystemsCurrent Status of Observing Systems

ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users:

Japan U.S. Government .com (commercial) United KingdomEducation .net (commercial)Germany RussiaAustralia Belgium

46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site:

• 35 updating Plots, • 8 real-time lists• 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials"

Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data

• 4.28 million ACE RTSW web files were transferred in October, 2006 (11% of total)

• About 1,000 ACE RTSW users daily

SEC Product Subscription UsersThose who use/require ACE RTSW• Data base query run October, 2006: Find number of

subscribers requesting the K5, K6, & K7 warnings, and K8 & K9 Alerts (very dependent on ACE RTSW data)– 654 registered users out of 4219 ( 16%)– Users located in 43 countries

Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Bolivia

Brazil Canada Chile China Cuba

Czech Rep. Finland France Germany Hungary

Iceland India Indonesia Ireland Israel

Italy Japan Korea, South Libya Macedonia

Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Peru

Philippines Romania Russia Singapore Slovakia

Slovenia South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland

Turkey UK United States

In April 2006, the National Weather Service issued a In April 2006, the National Weather Service issued a public notice that ACE might fail at any time without public notice that ACE might fail at any time without notice, and user impact comments were solicited.notice, and user impact comments were solicited.

Real time solar wind data comes from the ACEReal time solar wind data comes from the ACE

• NASA research satellite launched in 1997NASA research satellite launched in 1997

• Has outlived its original design life; keyHas outlived its original design life; key instruments showing signs of degradationinstruments showing signs of degradation

• NASA asserts there is sufficient fuel to control ACE NASA asserts there is sufficient fuel to control ACE until about 2022, and sufficient power output from the until about 2022, and sufficient power output from the solar panels until 2025.solar panels until 2025.

The continual flow of real time solar wind data The continual flow of real time solar wind data from ACE grows more uncertain every year. from ACE grows more uncertain every year.

SECTOR IMPACT LOSS

Electric Utilities Grid failure/blackout $6 – 10 billion

Transformer damage $1 – 2 million initial ($1 mil a day until replacement)

GPS Users Marine positioning (oil rigs, etc)

$50k – 1 mil (daily/one company)

Land survey/construction $20k – 1 mil (daily/one company)

Satellite Deep charging – total loss $200 mil (one satellite)

Public Response to Termination of Solar Wind Data

• 1,082 comments were received from 29 countries

• Respondents: Medical – Land Surveyors/GPS/LORAN – Airlines – U.S. Civil Government – Emergency Management/Communication – Military –Power/Utility Industry – Satellite and Communications Industry – Oil Drilling – Education/research scientists – Mining – Amateur Radio – many more

• Significant economic impacts were identified– Many pointed to societal impacts such as increased radiation dosage

during high latitude flights, or the loss of critical input when relying on backup communications during emergency situations

• The plan depends on the funding SEC receives, but we expect to accomplish all of this at the expected appropriations level.

– The exception to this is the possible procurement of new instruments

• SEC will adjust its staffing level to accommodate our ability to respond to the expected increase in high impact events as solar activity increases and reaches a peak in FY11 or FY12.

• At some time, perhaps around FY09 or FY10, GOES-13 will be brought out of storage and moved into operations.

• New products will be added with a focus on introducing numerical models with regional forecasting capability.

• The plan depends on the funding SEC receives, but we expect to accomplish all of this at the expected appropriations level.

– The exception to this is the possible procurement of new instruments

• SEC will adjust its staffing level to accommodate our ability to respond to the expected increase in high impact events as solar activity increases and reaches a peak in FY11 or FY12.

• At some time, perhaps around FY09 or FY10, GOES-13 will be brought out of storage and moved into operations.

• New products will be added with a focus on introducing numerical models with regional forecasting capability.

Transition to Operations – the new catchphraseTransition to Operations – the new catchphrase

SEC 2007 - 2013SEC 2007 - 2013

Plan Through FY13Plan Through FY13 Future instrumentation: Solar Wind and CME Imaging

CME Imaging: Proposed FY10 start. Possibly to fly on the solar wind mission, though other options are possible. Also a public/private partnership where NOAA would purchase the data provided by a commercial company

All of the major near earth space weather models, allowing regional forecasting All of the major near earth space weather models, allowing regional forecasting capability, that are currently under development will depend on the continuous capability, that are currently under development will depend on the continuous stream of solar wind data. stream of solar wind data.

Solar Wind: Proposed FY09 start beginning with refurbishment of DSCOVR (formerly Triana). This would be followed by a public/private partnership - commercial company will develop and fly a satellite and NOAA will buy the data.

GOES 13GOES 13 • Improved Solar X-ray imager (SXI) • EUV instrument for monitoring

space weather and climate changes in the Sun

• particle radiation instruments that extend to lower energies and cover multiple directions

• GOES-P will be launched in FY10 • GOES-O, in storage in space, will be

moved into operations around FY11 • Each contains a similar complement

of space weather instruments, with the exception of SXI

GOES O and PGOES O and P

METOP 2 will be launched in FY10

METOP 1 & 2METOP 1 & 2

Transition to OperationsTransition to Operations

• The efficient transition of new models, products, and data into space weather operations is critical to maintain and improve the success of Program capabilities.

• Government agencies have expended tens of millions of dollars developing models of the local and regional reaction of the space environment to forcing inputs from the Sun, and many of these models are approaching maturity and will be ready for transition to operations during this planning cycle.

• Improvements can only be realized through transition of models capable of regional specification and forecasting.

• Initial plan is to transition 3 models.

The GAIM) model is a physics-based, data assimilation model that incorporates a variety of near-real-time ground and space-based observations to accurately characterize and predict the state of the ionosphere.

Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)

The specifications and forecasts will be in the form of 3-dimensional electron density distributions from 90 to 25,000 km. GAIM will also provide global distributions for the ionospheric drivers (neutral winds, electric fields, and particle precipitation), and in its specification mode, it will provide quantitative estimates for the accuracy of the reconstructed ionospheric densities.

Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)/ENLILWang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)/ENLIL

The WSA is an empirical background solar wind model that predicts the speed and magnetic configuration of the solar wind from solar surface magnetic fieldobservations.

ENLIL is a physics-based numerical model for simulations of the solar wind that includes transient disturbances, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).

These Models will provide the capability to predict the evolution of CME’s, which in turn will enable improved forecasts of resulting geomagnetic activity.

Dependent on CME imagery for input to ENLIL.

Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM)

The LFM magnetosphere-ionosphere research model is a time-dependent, ideal MHD calculation of the state of the magnetosphere. This magnetospheric model is tightly coupled to a realistic model for the polar ionosphere and is driven by solar wind plasma and magnetic field data upwind of the calculation domain.

Transition of the LFM will allow geomagnetic storm products of increased accuracy and lead-time on both global and regional scales.

Backup Slides

The Space Environment CenterThe Space Environment Center

The SEC provides real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical events, conducts research in solar-terrestrial physics, and develops techniques forforecasting solar and geophysical disturbances.

About SECAbout SEC

Three functional areas of SEC:

- Technology Support Group: Responsible for the overall management, development and maintenance of the SEC IT architecture and infrastructure.

- Science and Technology Infusion Branch: Conducts research focused on areas where advanced applications can be developed and prototyped to improve space weather services.

- Forecast and Analysis Branch: Nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings. Operations are 24 hours per day, 7 days a week.

International Space Environment Service(ISES)

Mission:Encourage and facilitate near-real-time international monitoring andprediction of the space environment.

SEC / ISES PartnershipSEC / ISES Partnership

SEC is a member of ISES servingas one of the Regional Warning Centers (RWC) and "World Warning Agency“

ISES is a consortium of 12 member nations

Products and ServicesProducts and Services

SEC produces 42 event-driven products

Watches; expected disturbances, events that are forecast (i.e. The conditions are favorable for occurrence)

Warnings; disturbances that are imminent, likely, expected in the near future with high probability

Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding thresholds

Summaries; report issued as storm thresholds change/end-of-event

SEC Online Products and SEC Online Products and ServicesServices

Improves SEC customer support by providing a web-based GUI interface

Products available at www.sec.noaa.govProducts available at www.sec.noaa.gov

Allows our customers to register to receive our products via email

Improves our ability to gather information about our customers

Replaces the current email product distribution system, including Majordomo List-Server

SEC Product Subscription Service (PSS)

Allows customers to manage their own records and product selections

http://sec.noaa.govhttp://sec.noaa.gov http://pss.sec.noaa.govhttp://pss.sec.noaa.govhttp://www.sec.noaa.gov/aviation/http://www.sec.noaa.gov/aviation/

• Instruments and/or spacecraft turned off or safed

• Maneuver planning

• Anomaly assessments

• Orbit determination accuracy

• Increased spacecraft and instrument monitoring for health and safety during solar storms

Satellite Industry

Solar storm warnings and alerts uses:

Manned Space FlightManned Space Flight

• Shuttle missions and EVAs require particular attention. The EVA-1 hr briefing is the last opportunity to abort an EVA due to space weather. (>30 MeV events are primary concern)

• Electron belt enhancements can delay or postpone an EVA.

ISS: - 50 pfu at > 100 MeV - shutdown the robotic arm - 100 pfu at > 100 MeV - alert Mission Control. The Flight

Team will start to evaluate a plan to shutdown equipment to prevent damage to electronics.

- 200 pfu > 100 MeV - plan is implemented

Highlights of Previous Year Accomplishments Highlights of Previous Year Accomplishments of Space Weather Programof Space Weather Program

• The US Total Electron Content (US-TEC) model was released as an official NWS test product.

• Extension of the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model into the upper atmosphere and ionosphere.

• Satellite holdings were increased – Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite

(POES) Space Environment Monitor-II– Defense Meteorological Satellite

Program (DMSP) Ion Scintillation Monitor sensors.

• National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) transitioned the real-time Assimilative Model of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (RT-AMIE) to the Solar Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (Nagoya University, Japan).