Recent Development of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction

System (COAMPSTM)

J. Doyle, S. Chen, R. Hodur, T. Holt, M. Liu, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, S. Wang, D. Westphal, J. Cummings, X. Hong,

and J. Pullen

Naval Research Laboratory

• Introduction• Recent Development

• Atmospheric model• Ocean model

• Future Plans

NOGAPS: (Fleet Numerical)•Global coverage•1–10d forecaster guidance

NOGAPS: (Fleet Numerical)•Global coverage•1–10d forecaster guidance

Observations

BC, IC

COAMPS: (Fleet Numerical)•High resolution, nested

regional coverage•0-72h forecaster guidance

COAMPS: (Fleet Numerical)•High resolution, nested

regional coverage•0-72h forecaster guidance

DAMPS: (Regional Centers)•On-scene tactical-scale weather•0-48h forecaster guidance

DAMPS: (Regional Centers)•On-scene tactical-scale weather•0-48h forecaster guidance

COAMPS-OS: (Shipboard-NITES)•Battlegroup data assimilation

system•6-12h data assimilation cycle

COAMPS-OS: (Shipboard-NITES)•Battlegroup data assimilation

system•6-12h data assimilation cycle Battlespace

Awareness Cube

Local Model Output

Nowcast: (Shipboard-NITES)•Real-time, automatic, 4D data

fusion•Warfighter time & space

requirements•Common situational awareness

Nowcast: (Shipboard-NITES)•Real-time, automatic, 4D data

fusion•Warfighter time & space

requirements•Common situational awareness

On-Scene Obs

TDAs

On-Scene Obs

Data FusionAI

Nowcast

Navy Mesoscale Modeling Strategy Telescoping Systems Strategy for Mission Success

Navy StrategyCOAMPS: Flexibility in System Design

Atmospheric DataAssimilation System

Ocean DataAssimilation System

COAMPSCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System:

Atmospheric Components

•Complex Data Quality Control•Analysis:

• Multivariate Optimum Interpolation Analysis (MVOI) (Near Future: 3D Var)•Initialization:

• Hydrostatic Constraint on Analysis Increments; Digital Filter•Atmospheric Model:

• Numerics: Nonhydrostatic, Scheme C, Nested Grids, Sigma-z, Flexible Lateral BCs• Parameterizations: PBL, Convection, Explicit Moist Physics, Radiation, Sfc Layer

•Features:• Globally Relocatable (5 Map Projections)• User-Defined Grid Resolutions, Dimensions, and Number of Nested Grids• 6 or 12 Hour Incremental Data Assimilation Cycle • Can be Used for Idealized or Real-Time Applications• Single Configuration Managed System for All Applications• Operational at FNMOC:

• 9 Areas, Twice Daily, using 81/27/9 km or 81/27 km grids• Forecasts to 72 hours

• Operational at all Navy Regional Centers (w/ GUI Interface)

NRL Background in Community Modeling

•Began development of COAMPS in 1988

•Began distribution to limited research community in 1995:• Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory• University of Oklahoma• North Carolina State University• Jackson State University• Desert Research Institute• U. S. Army Research Laboratory

•Began operations in 1997:• FNMOC• Navy Regional Centers

•COAMPS Process Action Team (PAT) recommended general release of COAMPS in 2000:

• Release via Web; open to all• Support for release now funded

• Naval Postgraduate School• San Diego Supercomputer Center• Oregon State University• NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory• Goddard Space Flight Center• Tulane University

COAMPS Recent Development

• Atmospheric Model

•NAVDAS•Moist physics•Aerosols•Moving nests•Land surface processes•Upper Boundary Condition

• Ocean Model

•Analysis•Forecast•WAM

RHHPQ

xHyQHPxxT

bc

bcT

bba

)(1

• cast in observation space

• correlation functions can be defined on isentropic surfaces (along dry air flow)

z z

xx

NAVDASNavy Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System

• non-separable error correlation functions providing scale-length variations with height and location

• error correlations have scale dependence

• vertical profiles are transformed into coefficients of background error correlation eigenvectors (10-25 fold speedup)

• operates on all grids for NOGAPS and COAMPSglobal regional

• uses Message Passing Interface for Massively Parallel Computers

• directly assimilates measured quantities SSM/I wind speed, TOVS radiances, SSM/I precipitable water

• Original RH83 scheme lacked secondary ice nucleation, CCN, drizzle, aggregates, and liquid to ice conversions (homogeneous freezing, graupel and/or hail production)

• Modified Adjustment to Saturation Scheme: Implicit solution for T,q (Soong and Ogura, 1974) Normalized microphysical rates • Modified ice nucleation (Meyers et al. 1992; Hallet and Mossop, 1974)• Allow nonzero fall speed for pristine ice• Implemented various autoconversion schemes• Implemented the RH84 graupel scheme and homogeneous freezing• Adapted the two-moment Khairoutdinov and Kogan (2000) drizzle parameterization (originally implemented by Dave Mechem, OU) • Modified the turbulence closure for mixed-phase clouds• Implemented a Hybrid time scheme (Clark 1979; Smolarkiewicz and Clark, 1986; Tripoli 1992; Wicker and Wilhelmson 1995)• Implemented a forward positive definite advection scheme (Bott, 1989)• Developing a full two-moment mixed-phase microphysics scheme (Reisner et al., 1998; Meyers et al., 1997; KK 2000 )• Coupling cloud microphysics with aerosol model(s)

Adjustments to COAMPS Bulk Microphysics

RFC Analysis Original RH83 Scheme

Modified Scheme Moist Physics ComparisonsWinter-time Precipitation (mm)

24 Hour COAMPS Grid 3Forecast Valid 01/25/02

kmx 9

00.05

0.10.15

0.20.25

0.30.35

0.4

0.25 2.5 5 10 15 25 35 50 75

Precipitation Threshold (mm/day)

E-T

H Bench

New Micro

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0.25 2.5 5 10 15 25 35 50 75

Precipitation Threshold (mm/day)

Bia

s

COAMPS CONUS One-Week (20020125-20020201) Precipitation Scores

Addition of Aerosol Microphysics to COAMPS

• Objective: COAMPS with interactive clouds, radiation and aerosols

• Goal: COAMPS predictions of dust storms as weather events for strategic, tactical, surveillance, and operational uses

• Approach:

•Include source, dry deposition, and wet removal terms for dust (COAMPS already has accurate tracer transport code)

•Use remote sensing to improve specification of dust source areas•Validate model forecasts of occurrence and intensity of dust events in Southwest Asia region for spring 2002

Marine EnvironmentAerosol Concentration / cm3 Aerosol Concentration / cm3

Continental Environment

Rain water (g/kg)21600 sec

Rain water (g/kg)21600 sec

Simulated Orographic Rainfall Structure

Aerosol Void Aerosol Void

COAMPS Transport Simulation24-h forecast Valid 12 UTC 24 July 2001

Color: Mass Load (kg m-2)

SeaWiFS Satellite Image24 July 2001

Mt. Etna Ash Plume

Moving Nest OptionFixed Nest Option

(m/s)

Nest 2: 36 h forecast valid 12 UTC 18 September 2000

0 4 8 12 16 20

Sea levelpressure (hPa)

10-m windspeed (m/s)

COAMPS MPI Moving NestsHurricane Gordon 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000

LSM

Seasonal variation(satellite-derived NDVI)

Meteorological model inputT,q, ps, u,v, precip. LW, SW radiation

DATABASES• Vegetation type (USGS 1-km global)• Soil texture (1-km USDA STATSGO; 1o GED)

A = precipitationB = condensationC = on vegetationD = on bare soilE = transpirationF = canopy water evaporationG = direct soil evaporationH = evaporation from open waterI = deposition/sublimation to/from snow packJ = turbulent heat flux to/from snow pack/soil/plant canopyK = soil heat fluxL = interflowM = internal soil fluxN = gravitational flowO = internal moisture fluxP = soil moisture fluxQ = runoffR = dust processesS = urban effects

LSM processes

HG

FE

D

CB

A J

RQ

P

O N M L

K

I

S

Proposed COAMPS Land Surface Model (LSM) System

Urban Canopy Parameterization

||)(... uuzaCft

udurb

(1) Momentum loss

(2) Turbulence production

(3) Radiation absorption

(4) Surface energy budget

)|||||)(|(...)( 333 wvuzaCf

t

TKEdurb

)(||)()1( 4 TTVCcTRRq roofDroofproofLWSWroof

]})()[()1

1()1{(1

... 1

roof

roofroof

Ncroofurb

urburb

Nurb

p C

qzbf

z

Rff

Bz

qf

z

Rf

ct

GNccnynGnetLW

netSWurbNG RfRRfR )]0([))(1(

• Originally developed by Brown and Williams (1998), modifiedby Chin et al. (2000)

(1)

(2)

(4)

(3)

• Roof albedo () = 0.22• Roof emissivity () = 0.91• Roof heat capacity (Croof) =9.681 e4• Roof drag coefficient (CDroof) = 7.1e-3• Urban drag coefficient (Cd) = 1.2e-2• Extinction coefficient (k) = 0.1• Bowen ratio (Br) = 1.5• Canopy area density (a(z))= linear in z

Analytic Solution Rigid Lid (wtop=0)

Radiation Condition (Klemp&Durran) MM5 Local Radiation Condition

w (105 m s-1) w (105 m s-1)

w (105 m s-1) w (105 m s-1)

COAMPS Upper Boundary ConditonLinear Hydrostatic Gravity Wave Test

COAMPSCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System:

Ocean Components

•Data Quality Control•Analysis:

• 2D MVOI of Sea Surface Temp on All Grids• 3D MVOI Analysis of Temperature, Salinity, Surface Height, Sea Ice, Currents

•Ocean Model: Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)• Numerics: Hydrostatic, Scheme C, Nested Grids, Hybrid Sigma/z• Parameterizations: Mellor-Yamada 2.5

•Features:• Globally Relocatable (5 Map Projections)• User-Defined Grid Resolutions, Dimensions• Can be Used for Idealized or Real-Time Applications• Single Configuration Managed System for All Applications• Loosely coupled to COAMPS atmospheric model

•Strategy for testing coupled system:• construct a Mesoscale Atm-Ocean Data Assimilation System for the Med. Sea• quantify the skill of system• examine the Adriatic Sea at high resolution as a test-bed for coupling strategies

1 Oct 1999 3 Oct 1999

1 Oct 1999

5 Oct 1999

3 Oct 1999 5 Oct 1999

NCOM Forecasts

Sea Surface Temperature (C)

Surface Velocity (cm/s)

12.8 10.9• •

24-h Forecast Valid at 1200 UTC 24 August 1998

Uncoupled Coupled

(x=6 km)

NASA Scanning Radar Altimetry

Wright et al. (2000)

Coupled COAMPS/WAM Simulation of TC BonnieSignificant Wave Height (m)

Future Plans

• Development and Implementation of:• 3D variational analysis (NAVDAS)• aerosol model• air-ocean coupled system• land-surface model (LSM) (NOAH)• improved microphysical parameterization• improved Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 BL Param.• incorporation of WRF KF scheme• LES Option• mesoscale verification• efficiency improvements

Future Plans

• COAMPS and WRF Comparisons:• Idealized Simulations• Real Data Simulations

• Interchange of Key COAMPS/WRF Modules• Collaboration With WRF Community

• Land Surface Model (NOAH)• Physical Parameterization & Numerical Techniques• Ocean/Atmosphere Coupling Methods• Tropical Cyclones• Efficiency/MPI Issues• Proposed Next Generation Micro- Scale Model

COAMPS (400x100x30) (27,9,3 km) 12-h fcst ams1 (512p)

100

1000

10000

100000

25 50 100 200 400

No. of processors

Ela

pse

d t

ime

(sec

)

mpi-1mpi-2linear

COAMPS FNMOC Operational Areas

Arabian Sea

27 km

81 kmArea 1

27 km

81 km

9 km

Cent_Am27 km

81 km

Conus

E_Pac

As of:February 25, 2002

Europe

Southwest_Asia27 km

81 km

9 km

W_Atl

W_Pac

27 km

81 km

27 km

81 km

27 km

81 km27 km

81 km27 km

81 km

NAAPS Aerosol Optical DepthTOMS Aerosol Index

SeaWiFS True Color image

13 February, 2001

red – sulfategreen – dustblue - smoke

NAAPS/NOGAPS Simulates Large-scale Dust Storms

Mediterranean, 18 April, 2001

Africa Coast, 21 April, 2001

Arabian Sea, 7 December, 1999

Korea, 31 March, 2001

SeaWiFS images from Kuring/GSFC

Dust Storms: A Recurring, Worldwide ProblemMobilization and Transport Controlled by Mesoscale Dynamics

•Software developed using MPI•Makes use of existing COAMPS nesting software•Advantages:

•Allows for smaller nests (less resources required)•Flexibility in movement of nests:

•Namelist specified options:•Battle group option (“target” times/locations)•User specified grid point movement

•Nests automatically move together•Automated tropical cyclone movement option (under development)

COAMPS MPI Moving Nest Software Development

Recent Developments of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

(1,1)

(m,n)(1,n)

(m,1)(1,1)

(m,n)(1,n)

(m,1)(1,1)

(m,n)(1,n)

(m,1)

Fixed Nest 1:(m x n) points 3 x 3 domaindecomposition2 Halo Points

Moveable Nest 2: Time = t0

(1,1)

(m,n)(1,n)

(m,1)(1,1)

(m,n)(1,n)

(m,1)(1,1)

(m,n)(1,n)

(m,1)

Dropped region

Interpolated region

Shifted region

Time = t1

MPI communicationsneeded for shifted and

interpolated areas

COAMPS MPI Moving Nest Software Development

Recent Developments of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), Ninth Conference on Mesoscale Processes

COAMPS CONUS Model Grid Setup

Pacific Northwest (PNW)

Mississippi River Basin (MRB)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0.25 2.5 5 10 15 25 35 50 75

Precipitation Threshold (mm/day)

Bia

s

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.25 2.5 5 10 15 25 35 50 75

Precipitation Threshold (mm/day)

E-T

H 0-24 h24-48 h

COAMPS CONUS 2001 Cold Season (20011113-20020430) Precipitation Scores

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.25 2.5 5 10 15 25 35 50 75

Precipitation Threshold (mm/day)

E-T

H

PNW27PNW9MRB27MRB9

COAMPS CONUS Regional One-Week (20020125-20020201) Precipitation Scores

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0.25 2.5 5 10 15 25 35 50 75

Precipitation Threshold (mm/day)

Bia

s

00.05

0.10.15

0.20.25

0.30.35

0.4

0.25 2.5 5 10 15 25 35 50 75

Precipitation Threshold (mm/day)

E-T

H Bench

New Micro

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

0.25 2.5 5 10 15 25 35 50 75

Precipitation Threshold (mm/day)

Bia

s

COAMPS CONUS One-Week (20020125-20020201) Precipitation Scores

COAMPS Availability

Download COAMPS

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/projects/coamps/index.html

• Innovations (ob-bckgnd) computed using highest resolution COAMPS background available for each observation

• Single merged analysis grid vectors formed by combination of all the nested grid points

• Analysis corrections added back to each nested grid on vertical sigma_z model levels

• Display on pressure levels

Wind speed analysis300 mb

NAVDAS: Nested COAMPS

108 km

36 km

12 km

COAMPS MPI Moving NestsHurricane Gordon 00Z September 17- 00Z September 19, 2000

Moving Nest Option is 2.7x Faster on O2K

Moving Nest Option

Nest 2 at tau = 0 h

Nest 2 at tau = 48 h

81 km (61x61)

27 km (46x46)

Fixed Nest Option

Forecast position: 0-48 h (every 6 h)

0 h

48 h

81 km (61x61)

27 km (121x85)

COAMPS Dipole Jewel 5 SimulationsImpact of Increased Horizontal Resolution

Nest 2 (9 km)

10-m dosage (arbitrary units) and model terrain (m)26-h forecast (valid 02 UTC 29 Oct)

Nest 3 (3 km) Nest 4 (1 km)

Control Simulations-3

log

-2 -1 0 1 2

COAMPSTM Urban 2000 SimulationsSalt Lake City Nest 4 1-km resolution (49 x 49 km): 12-h fcsts

5

20

0

4

BG

RW

SLC

10-m air temp 10-m wind speed

12 00 12 00 12 UTC16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct

15

10

deg

C

5

20

15

10

5

15

10

2

1

3

0

2

1

3

5

0

4

2

1

3

5

m/s

12 00 12 00 12 UTC16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct

Urban

Control

Obs

bias = 0.865, 0.099rms = 1.712, 1.391

bias = 0.103, 0.966rms = 0.394, 1.197

bias = 0.470, -0.441rms = 2.972, 2.849

bias =-0.292, 0.309rms = 0.856, 0.991

Urban too warm at night

Little daytime difference

Reduction and improvement in day and nighttime winds

Two-Way Coupling

- Important in Boundary Layer (Janssen et al. 1989)

- Improved Model Climate (Viterbo and Janssen 1996)

- Extratropical Cyclones (Doyle 1995; Lalbebarry et al. 2000; Lionello et al. 1998)

- ECMWF/WAM Coupled System ( Janssen et al. 2001)

WAM (Cycle 4) (WAMDI Group 1988)

Wave Spectrum Predicted From Energy Balance Equation

F(,): 2d Wave Variance Spectrum Coupling Methodology (Janssen 1989; Janssen 1991)

COAMPS (zo, Fluxes, e, Kh, m, , U10) WAM ()

DSNLg INF (V F) S S S

t

inw w

d d Sg

c

zo=U*

2/g, where =(1-w/)-0.5

e

tu

e

xv

e

y

eBP SP D K eH

,

4

Coupled COAMPS/WAM

Surface Wind Stress (dynes/cm2)

Surface Heat Flux (W/m2)

1 Oct 1999 3 Oct 1999 5 Oct 1999

1 Oct 1999 3 Oct 1999 5 Oct 1999

COAMPS Atmospheric Forcing

COAMPS Dipole Jewel 5 SimulationsNest4: Transport

Observed:Cloud Track to T+105 min.

DTRA

1-km Land-use Simulation

Asterisks every 5 min from2145-2330 UTC 28 Oct 98

24-h forecast valid0000 UTC 29 Oct 98