recent efforts at ncc/cma to develop a high resolution cgcm for seasonal forecast
DESCRIPTION
Recent Efforts at NCC/CMA to Develop a High Resolution CGCM for Seasonal Forecast. Yong Luo, Yihui Ding, Min Dong and Yongjia Song National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081, China. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Recent Efforts at NCC/CMA to Develop a High Resolution
CGCM for Seasonal Forecast
Yong Luo, Yihui Ding, Min Dong and Yongjia Song
National Climate Center
China Meteorological Administration
Beijing 100081, China
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Background During the recent five years, National Climate
Center/China Meteorological Administration has made an effort to develop a high resolution CGCM for operational seasonal forecast purpose by support of a National Key Project of Studies on Short Term Climate Prediction System in China;
The model system has been completed at the end of 2000;
Further evaluation of the model performance is still in process.
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nccAssimilation SystemAssimilation System
Global AGCMGlobal AGCM
Global OGCMGlobal OGCM
RCM RCM
Regional OGCMRegional OGCM
Post-P
rocessing S
ystemP
ost-Processin
g System
ENSO ModelENSO ModelAssimilationAssimilation
Atm
osph
eriA
tmosp
heri
cc A
ssimilatio
Assim
ilationn
Ocean
icO
ceanic
A
ssimilatio
Assim
ilationn
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Dynamical component of the atmospheric andoceanic general circulation model
Model AGCM OGCMModel Domain Global GlobalGoverning Equations Primitive equation Primitive equationCoordinate λ ,φ ,η λ ,φ ,ZHorizontal Resolution T63, approximately 180 Km Gaussian grid of T63Vertical Resolution 16 levels 20 levels till 5000mTime Step 22.5 minutes 24 hours for temperature and salinity, one
hour for momentumOrography Spectral orography Real coast-line,
simple orography for ocean bottom
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Physical process parameterizations of the AGCM and OGCM
Physical Process AGCM OGCM
Radiation Ritter (1984); Mocrette (1990,1991); Shi (1981) ---
Convection Kuo(1974); Hack(1994); Zhang and Mcfarlane(1995);Gregory and Rowntree(1990)
---
VerticalDiffusion
TKE closure (Miller et al., 1989) Constant diffusion
HorizontalDiffusion
▽ 2,▽ 4 Same as above
Gravity WaveDrag
Palmer et al. (1986) ---
Land SurfaceProcess
Modified BATS (Dickinson et al.,1993), 10 layers,incorporating a three layer snow model (Sun et al., 1999)
---
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The wallclock time and speedup ratio of paralleling version
20 time steps at IBM SP
Node No. Wallclock Time (s) Speedup Ratio Efficiency
1 267.62 1 100%
2 134.24 1.99 99.5%
4 66.88 4.00 100%
8 37.09 7.22 90.3%
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AMIP-II run to validate the performance of atmospheric model
AMIP-II Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, Phase II Jan.1979--Feb. 1996 SST and Sea Ice
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Validation of the performance of CGCM
A daily flux anomaly coupling methodology has been applied in the coupling scheme between atmospheric and oceanic model.
A 30 year’s integration of the CGCM has been finished.
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500hPa height (Jan of the 26th model year)
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500hPa height (Aug of the 26th model year)
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Precipitation (Jan of the 26th model year)
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Precipitation (Aug of the 26th model year)
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Experimental seasonal forecast by the AGCM
SST: Persistent SSTA of February Initial: 00Z March 16 Period: March 16 - August 31 Forecast: Precipitation and 500 hPa height anomaly
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nccForecast of JJA 1998
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Preliminary analyses of the model results show an ability in reasonably reproducing the current climatology and a potential in experimental seasonal forecast.