www.swslim.org.uk

Recession Briefing

RDA Project Managers MeetingNov 2009

Ben NeildAssistant Director, SLIM

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UK GDP

Source: ONS

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Unemployment, SW

Source: ONS / BBC

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Employment Rate, SW

Source: LFS

% Working age population in Employment

73.0

74.0

75.0

76.0

77.0

78.0

79.0

80.0

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Employment Rate, SW

Source: LFS

% Working age population in Employment, May to July 2009

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Employment Rates

Source: LFS

% Change, year to May to July 2009

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Unemployment, SW

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

4.03.8

4.0 4.04.2

4.44.8 4.8

5.15.3

5.8 5.86.2

6.46.7 6.6 6.6

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.71.9

2.12.5

2.93.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Apr

-08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep-

08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

Aug

-09

Sep-

09

Oct

-09

% W

orki

ng A

ge P

opul

ation

LFS Unemployment

Claimant Count

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Claimant Count

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09

Adjusted

Unadjusted

SW, Adjusted & Unadjusted, Jan to Oct 2009

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Claimant Count Grown by regions

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

North East

North West

Yorkshire and The Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East

London

South East

South West

Indexed, April 08 = 100

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Claimant Count Rates by region

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

North East

North West

Yorkshire & The Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East

London

South East

South West

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Claim duration

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

> 6 months

> 1 year

< 6 months

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Redundancies

Source: JC+ administrative data

Notified redundancies each week, South West,1st Nov 2008 to 12th June 2009

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Notified Redundancy Levels South West (Four Week Periods)

4-weekly Poly. (4-weekly)

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Vacancies

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

live unfilled vacancies

notified vacancies

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Claimants per vacancy - SW

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

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Claimants per vacancy - LA

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Aug-08

Aug-09

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Gender - Employment Rates

Source: LFS

93.0

94.0

95.0

96.0

97.0

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

102.0

Aug-Oct 2008

Sep-Nov 2008

Oct-Dec 2008

Nov-Jan 2009

Dec-Feb 2009

Jan-Mar 2009

Feb-Apr 2009

Mar-May 2009

Apr-Jun 2009

May-Jul 2009

Men

Women

South West Employment Rate by gender, indexed, Aug 08 = 100

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Gender – Claimant Count

Source: JC+ / NOMIS

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Male

Female

South West Claimant Count by gender

www.swslim.org.uk Source: JC+ / NOMIS

Age – Claimant Count

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

Aged 18-24

Aged 25-49

Aged 50+

South West, Indexed, April 2008 = 100

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Claimant Count by Age

Source: NOMIS / JC+

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

% p

opul

ation

Aug 08

Aug 09

+ 3% of age band

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Claimant Count20 to 24 yrs olds (Aug 09)

Source: NOMIS / JC+

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

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Impact on Sectors

Source: JC+ administrative data

6.7%

4.5%4.1%

3.3%

1.9% 1.8% 1.8%1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

0.8%0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

0.2% 0.1%0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

Notified Redundancies as a Percentage of Employment, by Sector, South West

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Impact on occupations

Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009

% Claimants % Employment

Managers and Senior Officials6% 16%

Professional Occupations5% 12%

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations7% 15%

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations11% 11%

Skilled Trades Occupations13% 12%

Personal Service Occupations5% 9%

Sales and Customer Service occupations15% 8%

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives11% 6%

Elementary Occupations27% 11%

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Impact on occupationsChange over time

Composition of Claimant Count, South West, August 2008 & August 2009

Occupation Aug-08 Aug-09

Managers and Senior Officials 5.4% 6.1%

Professional Occupations 3.9% 4.5%

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 6.4% 7.0%

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 11.3% 10.9%

Skilled Trades Occupations 11.9% 13.2%

Personal Service Occupations 5.0% 5.1%

Sales and Customer Service occupations 15.1% 14.8%

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 10.0% 10.8%

Elementary Occupations 30.8% 27.4%

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Unemployment Lagging Indicator

Source: LFS, ONS

GDP & Unemployment - 1990's

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1990 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41991 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41992 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41993 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41994 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41995 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41996 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41997 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41998 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

41999 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

42000 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

42001 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

42002 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

42003 Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4

GD

P G

row

th,

Qtr

on

Qtr

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t, %

of

16+

po

pu

lati

on

GDP

Unemployment

Estimates

19 Quarters of positive growth before unemployment returns to pre-

recession levels

We have now had 6 successive quarter s of negative growth