Recognition of Paleoseismicity on Creeping Faults? Examples from the Dry Lake Valley Site

along the central San Andreas Fault

Utah Valley University:: Nathan A. Toké, Nicole Abueg, James Anderson, Lawrence Kellum, and Jeff Selck.

Arizona State University:: J Ramón Arrowsmith, Tsurue Sato, and James Barrett Salisbury

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 1

Historical record of slip along the San Andreas Fault

http://www.hq.usace.army.mil/history /vignettes/Main.h52.gif

Great 1906 Earthquake

http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/office/ganderson/es10/lectures/lecture18/fence_break_small.jpg

Great 1857 Earthquake

From Toke et al., 2006, after Sieh, 1978

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 2

Modified from Allen, 1968

Central SAF Activity since 1857

Titus et al., 2006

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 3

October 21st, 2012 M 5.3 Event

Toppozada et al., 2002

Why all the fault creep?

• Alteration leading to weak fault zone clays associated with creep – e.g., Lockner et al., 2011; Holdsworth et al., 2011;

Schleicher et al., 2010;.

• Talc found at seismogenic depth

– e.g., Moore and Rymer, 2007

• High pore fluid pressures within the

fault zone

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 4

Potential for earthquakes • Long term slip rate may be greater than historical creep

rates + moderate quakes… – e.g., Toke et al., 2011; Toke and Arrowsmith 2006

• Other faults and nearby faults creep and rupture:

Hayward Fault – e.g., Lienkaemper, 2002 and 2007

• Self Driven Mode Switching has been proposed – Reorganization of fault zone properties

Ben-Zion et al., 1999

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 5

Concerns over Extreme Events?

• Do ruptures from the Northern or the Southern SAF extend into the creeping section?

• Do ruptures ever link up between Northern and Southern SAF? UCERF 3 Plan

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 6

Paleoseismic Evidence M

cCal

pin,

200

9 Creep and Moderate EQs

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 7

Fissures are filled with sidewall blocks

• Stenner and Ueta, 2000 • Lienkaemper et al., 2002

• Amos et al., 2011

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 8

Unequivocal evidence of large earthquakes! Colluvium being shed from fault rupture scarp

Lead to Buried Colluvial Wedges

Paleoseismic sites along the SAF

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 9

Modified from Kelson et al., 2005: following Fumal, 2012 and Streig et al., 2012

Modified From Toke et al., 2006

Paleoseismic Sites of the Creeping Section

Titus et al., 2006

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 10

A – Melendy Ranch Site Perkins et al., 1989

A

B – Flook Ranch Site Cashman et al., 2007

B

C – Miller’s Field Site Toke et al., 2011

C

D – Dry Lake Valley Site

D

The Dry Lake Valley Paleoseismic Site (36.46791, -121.05564)

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 11

Site Characteristics

• Heart of Creeping Section • Fan and Sag Pond Deposits • Steep Scarps

Oblique Faults (SE wall)

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 12

Main Deformation Zone (NW wall)

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 13

Clasts Sourced from Paleochannel

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 14

Large Cobbles and Boulders within Fault Zone

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 15

Significant ground deformation between 780 and 1031 A.D. At the Dry Lake Valley Site

San Juan Bautista to Parkfield, CA

~140 km

DLV Site

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 16

Pushing Interpretative Ability – 2013 Plan Component 1

– Determine if the deformation feature observed in the 2012 trench is a gravitationally-filled fissure.

Component 2

– Determine if the high scarp on the eastern side of the DLV site sag preserves evidence of rupture via colluvial wedges. (e.g., Amos et al., 2011; Lienkaemper et al., 2002)

Component 3

– Searching for evidence of coseismic slip preserved within the morphology of offset channels. (e.g., Rockwell and Meltzner, 2008)

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 17

Acknowledgements Selected References: • Amos, C.B., Lapwood, J.J., Nobes, D.C., Burbank, D.W., Rieser, U., and A. Wade, 2011, Paleoseismic constraints on Holocene surface ruptures along

the Ostler Fault, southern New Zealand. • Ben-Zion, Y., Dahmen, K., Lyakhovsky, V., Ertas, D., Agnon, A., 1999, Self-Driven Mode Switching of Earthquake Activity on a Fault System: Earth and

Planetary Science Letters, v. 172, p. 11-21. • Holdsworth, R.E., E.W.E. van Diggelen, C.J. Spiers, J.H.P. de Bresser, R.J. Walker, and L. Bowen, 2011, Fault rocks from the SAFOD core samples:

Implications for weakening at shallow depths: Journal of Structural Geology, v. 33, issue 2, p. 123-144. • Kelson, K.I., Streig, A.R., Koehler, R.D., 2005, Timing of Late Holocene Paleoearthquakes on the Northern San Andreas Fault at the Fort Ross Orchard

Site Sonoma County, California: US Geological Survey NEHRP Technical Report: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/external/reports/02HQGR0069.pdf

• Lienkaemper, J., Dawson, T., Personius, S., and Seitz, G., Reidy, L. and Schwartz, D., 2002, A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 500 years: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 92, no. 7, p. 2637-2658.

• Lockner, D.A., C. Morrow, D. Moore, and S.H. Hickman, 2011, Low strength of deep San Andreas fault gouge from SAFOD core: Nature, v. 472, p. 82-85.

• Moore, D.E. and Rymer, M.J., 2007, Talc-bearing serpentinite and the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault: Nature, v. 448, p. 795-797, doi:10.1038/448756a.

• Rockwell, T.K., and A.J. Meltzner, 2008, Non-characteristic slip and earthquake clustering on the Imperial fault, Mesquite Basin, Imperial Valley, California, Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union v. 89 (53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract T11A-1845.

• Schleicher, A.M., van der Pluijm, B.A., and Warr, L.N., 2010, Nanocoatings of clay and creep of the San Andreas fault at Parkfield, California: Geology, v. 38, no. 7, p. 667-670, doi: 10.1130/G31091.1.

• Sieh, K.E., 1978, Slip Along the San Andreas Fault Associated with the Great 1857 Earthquake: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 68, no. 5, p/ 1421-1448.

• Sieh, K.E. and Jahns R.H., 1984, Holocene activity of the San Andreas fault at Wallace Creek, California:Geological Society of America Bulletin v. 95, p. 883-896.

• St enner HD, Ueta K. Looking for evidence of large surface rupturing events on the rapidly creeping southern Calaveras fault, California. In: Active Fault Research for the New Millennium. Okumura K, Takada K, Goto H (eds), Proceedings of the Hokudan International Symposium and School on Active Faulting, pp. 479–486, 2000.

• Titus, S.J., C. DeMets, and B. Tikoff, 2006, Thirty-five-year creep rates for the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault and the effects of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake: constraints from alignment arrays, continuous GPS, and creepmeters: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 96, no. 4B, p. S250-S268 doi: 10.1785/0120050811.

• Toké, N.A., Arrowsmith, J R., Rymer, M.J., Landgraf, A., Haddad, D.E., Busch,M., Coyan, J., and Hannah, A., 2011, Late Holocene slip rate of the San Andreas fault and its accommodation by creep and moderate magnitude earthquakes at Parkfield, California: Geology, v. 39, no. 3, p. 243-246, doi: 10.1130/G31498.1.

• Toppozada, T.R., Branum, D.M., Reichle, M.S., and C.L. Hallstrom, 2002, San Andreas Fault Zone, California: M ≥ 5.5 Earthquake History: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 92, no. 7, p. 2555-2601.

Conversations with the following people have aided this research: • Aron J Meltzner (Singapore Earth Institute) , Keith Kelson (URS), Kate Scharer (USGS), Tim Dawson (CGS), Ashley Streig (Univ Oregon), Tom Hanks

(USGS), Chris and Daniella Madugo (Earth Consultants International/Oregon State/San Diego State), 2012 UVU Geology Field Camp

Funding: • 2012 Southern California Earthquake Center Grant – Project # 12050 • 2012 Scholarly Activities Committee (Student Travel and Research) College of Science and Health, Utah Valley University

AGU Fall 2012, Session T22C Earthquake Deformation: Integrating Observations and Mechanics Toke et al., SLIDE 18