reconciling with the taliban? toward an alternative grand strategy in afghanistan

8/14/2019 Reconciling With the Taliban? Toward an Alternative Grand Strategy in Afghanistan

1/114

Reconciling With the taliban?Towar d an a lTernaTive Gr and STr aTeGy in afGhaniSTan

ashley J. tellis


2/114

Reconciling With

the taliban?owar d an alernaiv e

Gra nd Sr aeGy in aGhaniSan

ashley J. tellis


3/114

2009 Carnegie Endowment or International Peace. All rights reserved.

No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by

any means without permission in writing rom the Carnegie Endowment.

The Carnegie Endowment normally does not take institutional positions on

public policy issues; the views represented here do not necessarily refect the

views o the Endowment, its sta, or its trustees.

For electronic copies o this report, visit www.CarnegieEndowment.org/pubs.

Limited print copies are also available.

To request a copy, send an e-mail to [email protected].

Carnegie Endowment or International Peace

1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW

Washington, DC 20036

Phone: 202-483-7600

Fax: 202-483-1840

www.CarnegieEndowment.org


4/114

contents

Acknowledgments

Summary

Introduction 1

Chapter 1: Convoluted Politics of Reconciliation 5

Chapter 2: Tinking About Reconciliation Strategically 15

Chapter 3: Winning the War by Seeking Clarity About Goals 21

Chapter 4: Winning the War by Seeking Clarity About Strategy 35

Conclusion: Grand Strategy Redux 91

Notes 96

About the Author 105

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 106


5/114

Reconciling With the taliban? | ashley J. tellis

acknoWleDgMents

T ut s p gtu t lutt G d w B, Ut Sttsam (t); Pt Bg; d Bumt; S Cs; Tms d; Gsds; C J h G, Ut Stts am (t); c G; a

a J; ck Kg; rbt Kg; bc Pt; ambss Jt Ps;Km Sjpu; vc Scuk; ambss rks S; M Stmck; s s amc, Bts, i, nao gmt tgc -cs t t t g ts muscpt t t scusss t substt ssus ppg t rspsbt t ctt ts pt,

, s t uts


6/114

caRnegie enDoWMent FoR inteRnational Peace

suMMaRy

T u-up t t ucmt Pst obms a-Pk sttg pk u suts t t cct Pmtg cct t t b s tt s pp t mstts wt Pp USpc t agst Pkst w ts t u gt bcs cuus s g, m eup t Ut Stts busb tt stbzg agst m qu just tt i ct, t u b t stppc t ts tm t s st t s g s k b csttuts

cc tt mt ct agst s tb

a t t cct t , t, um t cbt amcp t succss t ag mss Mst mptt, ccg t tb s bt pmtu ucss t succss wst ms T agpubc, b mg mg 82 pct t 4 pct, s st muc ppst t bt g tm s t cuts bggst tt but s sptskg t succss tt ugt t ccu m t psc wst mt cs t cut Csqut, tug t stut agst s sus, t s b

ms pss c b t tug cct mct cutnao sttg, cug tu t pp cutsugc pts

T ct qust t Ut Stts s t c ct agst ictust s t mgzt t b s m ppstcb tt, cct bt sm b mts t ag stt ubcm pssb, but pc t tm t s s st css acgct, t, s ctg ct ag stt tt c ct tst tt t ps scut, sps gc, cmcpmt css t su t stbt Succss ts spct s sst

t Ut Stts cuss t mt bjct tg -Q ts s


7/114

wt b qu, , s c amc tmt t st sug agsts scut t g tm Sgg amc mptc tt mss b csg t sttgs spu sugts t utst t tt

ct; cug mptt ag bsts t psst t pg mb-c; uc ismb t sc qusg ts suppt t b bcust cu c g b qu t ptct Pksts tsts Kbu

acctg amc suppt t agst t su t t k tSuc ppc u s mtt t sugts, t bsts, t gstts t smp t wsgt ut t ptct t tsts tugms tt u utmt t Pst obms pss tt t t-Q cmbt tmsm T s cp ut t succss agstmp--t sttg o sus, g-tm cmmtmt t bug c-

t ag stt st--u sttg k w ts tt ppcuubt s t amcs cut cmc ptc bus, t cst t USt scut bjcts t g s u b muc, muc gt

Reconciling With the taliban? | ashley J. tellis


8/114

1caRnegie enDoWMent FoR inteRnational Peace

intRoDuction

T 2008 s cut agst T cc c c -tm g, supssg t c s tss ug t pus Ppu sstsct t t hm Kz gmt cs ut s -sp cupt, gc pmt us, ctu ctcspuct tct cus t ucut stt ctss , t bt nt attc t ogzt (nao) tps t t t b s quck sm eup t Ut Stts t pct, cup t sg ag

sctt but c csuts m cmbt pts, cbt b stutct b ppg, g s t but pubc gst but t sm ctss t wsts cut ptc mt sttg agstM bss bg t sk spg t ts cct cu b ,, s Pst Bck obm s sttg, pt sutsgg m sctg t mt cmbt pts agst t gg g bgs t t pcp g stks s pps

amg t m pct s tt g cuc ct mts s t

t pmtg cct t t b Suc ppst u b cs smp cuus s g; t , t Ut Stts tt b t ut agst t gtus g bcus tsus t su t -Q mstms ct t Sptmb 11, 2001,ttcks n yk, Ps, wsgt at s s gmt pts, , m eup t Ut Stts pp tb tt sg agsts pbms stbt m csstt gttg pc t t b sugts g t cct, s tt wst tpscut ptg t cut m cm m Zk cptu tsstmt ug t Ut Stts p t tk t t b atug

ccg tt t tmg suc tt u t b jug cu,


9/114

Reconciling With the taliban? | ashley J. tellis2

Zk gus tt t g sptg, s t s pssb, t gb jst mt cct gu, ts cst t sugts g t sk ppst, pps t mst - bt s-c Qutt

Su b Mu om[] t us pts m tus t t aggmt, s skg tt t b stgus m a Q1

w Zks g ss s su, s sut cu t b mg gt rccg t t b s cpt bgug sttg pcg

agst tt s m t pst nt s t b -sp utst suc cct, ttg t cu t ps st csqucs: it cu cbt t tc ssus t agst; t cusg t bt ppts bsts t t cut tt wst t

s mmt , c, t t pmtu cmpmsc

mkg t succss cct ts m mpbb; s, t cu pt t c tt gs t mj g cts ctss pptuts -Q t us ts m t sutg ssss ttck t wst t g

Pst obms ct US pc t agst Pkst ppst cgz ts sks T wt Pp summzg t itgc Pc Gupsrpt t subjct ckgs c tt Mu om t bs c tt g tmss t Q t ccb, ut mttgtt t Ut Stts ct mk tt cus tm yt t s ccus

tt t agst ct b tut ccg -gccmmtt sugts t t ms, jct Q, ccpt t agCsttut tt , t suggsts tt c su b ct pc [tt t Ut Stts] su suppt ts b t iptdctt lc Gc t p cct t tgtg m-t- sugts t b b pc gs2 it s uc ts tt

u m t t cct pgm bg pmt b tag gmt But, m pbmtc, t ssums tt stmt tgtg t -gc sugts c ctu succ t ts pt tm

t s mpmt t t pc , spt t ss bg su bt wst ct s--s t b

T cut stbcks fctg naos cutsugc cmpg mp tt ttmpt t cct tug gtt bg ct t m cg bgtss pps t t qut pgss ct sugts sutgm ct cts tt cg t ptc ctsu t tstbt tt t Ut Stts sks s ts -tm bjct agst ettmptg t c ut t pb sugts b t b b t b su amc ptc mt sttg agst u sg kss

t pt wsgt Kbu t u mk t tsk ccmmtg


10/114


t cmm b t T psstc suc us u umt cbt amc p u gz t c ismstmmts tt kg t gs c gst t Ut Stts Mst

mptt , ccg t t b s bt pmtu ucss t succss wst ms agst atug t stut agsts sus, t s b ms pss t c b t tug cctmct cut nao sttg

Ts pt s t cpts T st cpt zs t ttuus ptcs cct t agst it suggsts tt m t tts ssct

t ts pcss pst ptc tt g , mpctg Pst hmKzs b ct, s s bmt b t Ut Stts, tsb t ppst pts t agst t t t uc t Pstu-

mt sut sutst s t cut G ts cmpts,ts pt ccus tt t cct, ust s gtt bg

t t t b sp ts bs s, s uk t b succssu tts pt tm

T sc cpt sts t ccpt cct m sttgc pspct itts t s tus pbms tt succssu t t cct mustcm, t gus tt ccmt bt t stt t b ppstct b puc s sut g cmpms but tug ctptc-mt ct tt mss t s ctu sstc i suc

ct c b c, cct bt mtts t stt bcmtb, pc t tm t s s st css

T t cpt sss t ssu wst gs agst ntg ttct bjcts s pqust succssu ptc-mt sttg, tmstts tt bug ct ag stt s sst ct gs stct m t t pscut tsm Bcus t ct ct t tt s t ssu, t scuss stbss t supt mctcgm agst ts tts, suc s tu t cpus tbsm,

ccmmtg umtsts t t gmt, ccptg utt- sstm Csqut, t sttgc ccs bt cuttsm sttbug agst, c t ps s tts t ptc bt eup t Ut Stts, pst s msg ctm ttsu b jct ut, t mgg cms tt wsgt c t cismsts k t b ctug t gst -Q tt t cut agst t pscut -Q succssu Pkst s t bcus T scuss, ccg, ccus tt t Ut Stts su mt g g bug ct ag stt; cg ts bjct, tu, qus pppt sttg ct agst


11/114


T ut cpt, t, cuss t t u tk t wst ct, t Ut Stts ptcu, t c suc ct B zg t cgsqu t t sttgc, pt, mstc, t s ct, t gus

tt ptc-mt succss s t mt pssb agst, but tt tu qu cmbt cstc cmmtmt t pt wsgt, tu t pp cutsugc pts t k tt pusu bt2003 2005, sgct tsmt ag gmt pmc g t gc i ts t cmpts c b sust, t ctsmtts g t ctg b sctus Pkst c b substtst, tus btg US ts t Kbu ismb smutus

T t cpt, st ccus t t pt, pss t m tms gus tu t cct g sttg, tt s, cus scug ct

agst t t mpmtg cct t t b s t sutt t cut pcmts cg wsgt i ts ctt, t ugs Pstobm t t b t b t mts but agst bg t g mpsbcus t s t gus tt pppt cp succss t b tt m mps cts t t cut t cct amc t, but t tt ms cmmtt t stg ug

agst t g tm o t tt ppc c ps agst tt s t g bcm bst m c tst gupsc cuct ctstpc ttcks gst t tt cmmut


12/114


convoluteD Politics

oF Reconciliation

T ccg t t b s t t ct i t tmt t t succsss opt eug m (oe), t ag Pkstm spcutg but t t ccmmt t mt bs ms cstg succss t -t cut T s s ugc tt Pst Kz ms s g t p sm k cmpms

t t b b s ct t c i pt, ts s u t s cstsp t m b gus ug t 1990s; but t tmt s

ct 2002, s tst cg ut t t sct Pstus, pt mp t t b gm, bcm m t as s bu 2004, Kz m tuc t Pgm km--S (PS), t stgtg pc tt, m t cctg k-- sugts cugg tm t tu pcu t agst Ts t, c st ctus s s b ipt nt Cmmss Pc rcct b Kz , Sbgtu -Mj, s ts sugts g tuc c pg suppt t t ag stt t pptut t jt tb cmmuts

atug t pgm j sm succsss, tt t cc ttus us t t ms, t s t b ss tcspcuus cmt T ksss t t, c cu t btt pppt t sugt cts, t bsc ct mtg t tmt m cct, t pgss ss cbt bcus ag sp stcmgs g gmt us, t UtKgm, t nts, t Ut Stts t ctu b t csuppt ts tt T pb st t PS pgm su b cut- t tm t obm mstt pps cmmtt t cugg

ag gmt ts t tgt ccb sugts3

ChaPer 1


13/114


dspt t tmt wst ssstc, t PS tt s tss c-tu e s t , , ts mgs ccs mut m mtcts t cct m t t t k but t t sp t

sugc ts mp, M 2005, Mj mtc mst tt b m, Mu om, t hzb ism ct, Gubu hkmt, t t ms, ccpt t ag csttut, cgz Kzssp Ts , c s t s ctcz bt b t tt c-t b t -Pstu s agst ( subsqut ct tnt t ppst t Kz), s u sc, but t gt ag cct tug gtt cmpms t t bs rahbari shura(sp cuc) s b tgus, t st t ms Pstu sk Mj mst ct Kz

Bcus t s gst succss s b g, , t ccttts m t t shura sc 2004 pc t t gu pc ict, t bsc ptt ptcs agst s t cg sc t ctspuc b oe: t Kz gmt s suppt t tt t t utt b mt, ccs g -t s sttmt tt b sp t t t ts ms t Pstu ppu-ts t sut st pcs agst Ts sut tus

u ctu t t t t ctc pst PcCuc cts scu 2009 Kzs s t scu sc tm s ps-t, spt s gms us t g t pg scut, g gmt,

pmt agst, s g cmpg sttg g tstct tms: st, t us s tc gst gs, bt t wst Pkst, bm t cut pbms ctg scut pmt

t t cut; sc, t ag s-c, c tug stsbjust s tt t css pc t tt cmmut s ct ctcsm ts ptc s pc t j wst suppt; , t,t ttmpt t p cct t t ag b spgus ucg ts Pkst cutpts ms sg up Pstusuppt Kzs cc, ptcu t stub pcs t cut4

Kzs ct cmpg, m t t t pmt agst,s tus b spsb t ct upsug t tc ptg t c-ct B stkg ttt t pssb cmpms t t b, spcMu omm Kz s c u m s bsstg tt t [om] ss, s us, [] tt s gt5t psts c ut t t shura smutus ctg ctcsm s gms ppmc ug t pst s s B u pt cmg naoscuct ,6 spt t ct tt t cts psc s t utmt ssuss p, Kz s ttmpt t pp t ts Pstus su s

sut t mt pts ccug rg Cmms est (rC-e) Sut


14/114


(rC-S) Kzs ctcsm gs g s s t t pp t ts p uuct ags b mgz b t tu t wst-uct cutm mtg t pmt pg sttuts t

gg ag stt Bcus ts tug ts ct mg t Kzsmst tcut mb ctcs, s uc tm mst tupttms s cupt mt[s], stg cct t sm mmbs ttt cmmut,7 cpb bcmg ags mgu8

Ts ct csts cm t t Kzs s wstbmt b m t mtc b t gg sctmt wstcpts t s gms pmc T gmt agsts bt t g gc, spc t sut st t cut, s eup t Ut Sttsccts cbtg t b sugc

Ts pcpt, tu, tss t tt t agst ct b s cs t t sp scusss but t m t cutw cmpmt b naos p cc cutsugc sttg cts sttg tt mpszs p st ttcks gst sugts buttt s pucs css ct mgt ppu t tt suts sKz sk t pcs t tm s ub t ct ccu tt s

wst s cmmtt t g t t gt stg t cus agst i ts ccumstcs, t ptc cssts su pss m tpmt cct t t b m t t usu, tug s c ug t ust tt ts u s uk t puc t

succsss mmt Tus, mp, , ct t b a co, Pst obm cutus spcut tt t m b sm pptuts agst9 pg cct, Kz sz t s gupst sps t sst mtc tt M obm [s] ccpt ppt pt pc tks t ts ag b c mts Tss g s, Kz c, g tt ts s pp u pus stc

ccpt ps t10

Kzs ct mpss ccg t t b s, tus, p ms

g sttg tt cus tzg agsts m pbms, busg s mg s t u, pstg ms s sm c st upt g ps s s bg st b tm c b t t tssu s ct h m, cus, pt b tt cct tt b sp s utmt css t succss t ag stt-bugpjct, but t st s pubc tts ts ssu suggsts tt s cut m b t cmpuss ct ptcs t b cs sttg cg gu cmpms suc cct t t ag bs bstt rahbari shura s ct pssb Ts ccus s cmb t ct tt Kzs qut smts cct b t

ct t s tt pts tgt t naos cut ptc-


15/114


mt sttg agst, tug t tt s b m pp bt ag gmt equ t t t pt s tt Mu om sct pt jct cct put t tb b Kz,

c g ts s sguus, , ttg tm t st cc-ss, sp t t bs ptcus tt s utgus s t bsmss mmt b Kbu

T c tut t mtt, t, s tt t s ss ag gmt tst ccg t t b sp t s usu b stmt ucpct b t rahbari shura Qutt s rcct t t shura sbcm kbuk p bt tu b tst csts tt t sg tt yt Kzs ufs uss ts mtt ctsmtms mp, ap 2008, s mmbs t p-

pst nt t, u b Kzs cut cs cct utt sct t t sugts mgt b t mkg, su uc t suppt pcu cmpms t t b Ts ppt tubut bk -Pstu ptcs, ct t m stugg gst t bug t 1990s, m bt t pss cquscc t cct tut cm bg sk b t b t mt t t Kz gmt -cb t b T btt ccust tt Kz sugt t us t spct gtts t t b s [ptc] p gst [s] ct s11c uscs t t tt s t msust t wst: cct tt b sp s umt but jckg p agst

t but bgg stbt t t cut tug cct cmpms

Kzs tst tumptg cct s bus: t cts ttt m s s gc us t pmts m t psu mgz Pstus, spc tGz tbs tt succ t t b t sut st, t suppt s ctTs ccuus cmps t nt t, ts t mst b ppts tb s bss suppt mg t Uzbks, jks, hzs t t t st, t p t sm gm: sstg t cct, sc, bcust s usu pg t ct suppt t sut mbsg t

cms t bg gu muttc ptc tt tt psts agst

Ts cmptt gg cct t t b u mm tct mstc ag ptcs t t t ct tt m tmst cspcuus pmts ccu t tm eup pubc ps tg t sms k tmb ub tt cutTt ts mugs mtz m cttus pst cmpg tUt Stts, t cuct t gg s iq agst bcmmptt ct ssus, g t qust cct m ttt t tmgt ts c a, , t stug ss d igtus t

t Washington Posttt Su Kg abu mt Mcc t pstts


16/114


t b t ag sugt gups b Gubu hkmt Ju hqq t agsts pst, hm Kz, spst Mcc b s bt Qum Kz12 sct mt t

m t cmtg ppcmt t t b, cs p t gts spcut tt t t ag gmt but s t wst ts s smg t sttmt t ts pcp s s t ms g ts gmt pts agst13

T sm pusug suc sttg pp t b mpsz kc pmtc cb m agst qut S S Cp-Cs, t UKmbss t Kbu, s sstg tt t cut nao cmpg gst t bsugts s m t u tt t bst p succss g spt g cs m t cut14 Tt suc u b utt b

Bts cs, b mg t stgst pubc suppts t ctsmt pts agst, sck t g eup ucs p t qust t cct t t b ugt t b c-ct s ms sug t ptu wst cs

ts eup t Ut Stts t cc but t tsm t cut t agst t sttg bg mpmt t scuts gs, Cp-Css g mks p justct m-g cct t t b s t sttg t wst Tt t mbsssmks gb sm t mtt ss; spt Cp-Cs g pus

mpsz t c tt Bts mt agst s k t st cs,15 s pupt m pssmstc c pubct ut u t pctt tt cct t t b sp stb g naos g bt t agst

Sct ds rbt M Gts tt u suc stmts , cmmts t pts t octb 9, 2008, mtg nao s msts Bupst, hug, ct tt t s t b utmt i uscutmt cct s pt ptc utcm tt s t cct

agst Suggstg tt sm sttg k iq, Gts t ttt Ut Stts pmt cct tt pp pttct b stg t us kg u ss Ccug cc gtt t t t , tts mst s , Gts tt cct t t b u b sb t ccu t aggmts tms t su tt t b u subjct tmss t tgtmt ag stt16 Gtss mks ut stgt t tt cc-t t t b s tb mtt tm

Mst t ucs eup, agst, Pkst, t Ut Stts

pp t scut Gtss ctc quct tt cct s sb


17/114


utmt bcus t mpsz t -mptt stct bt c-ct ccug s csquc , pusut t, succssu mt pts, cct tspg u , ctu pcug t csst , cmbt

succsss t gu w t pc iq gub psts m t ttt t m, t ccumstcs agst suggst tt t sm u b cutt pct iGtss csqut sttt cct ccu t aggmts tms t bs ccptc t sgt t agstt t b z ut, Gtss mbgut tg t tgts tcct t ugt t b, tt s, t t su b ct t t bsrahbari shura t cmm u t sugc, m s cmmts pp m sg t pbb t at , cct pgm tgt tt bs s sts, t s g usuccssu, s ssmt cct t cu m cugg m

Kzs , g-p tus t Mu om s ct Qutt

Ts, t t, s Gtss mks tpt, b g t pss sut as, eup, t Ut Stts mgmt gmt pts butt pct s t agst t bg cuct t wt husb G dugs e lut t Ut Stts Ct Cmm (CenCoM) bG d Ptus t t t ct Bck obms cutus suggst tttkg t t b su b p17 t ccu tt cct t tsugc u m ctc cmpt wsgts agst sttgo Pkst spp, mp, succct summz ts pcpts ts

g Uu-spkg sp b cg tgt ts octb 19, 2008, ttt t ts u t gg gst tsm, t amc gmts ccpt t b s ctg pt i ts g, t s stt sct tstug t Pkst t ag gmts t mk t pssb t bt ptcpt upcmgjirga t ts mt ismb18

T gg pcpt tt t Ut Stts s cct t tbt tt mts pc bjct s Sut

as s s c tt wsgts mt pts agst

ct , c, cu pst t pu t mj amc tm t g e ts t s t mmt, t ps scussbut cct ct just t pt gtt suts tt ag cct Csstt t ts pctt, t agPkst mjirga ismb octb 2728, 2008, m tsk ts gts, t s t t Pkst gt, nt wst t Pc g os

am G, t stbs ctcts t s sk ut cct pc t, cm, tt s suppt b t pp s s tgmts bt cuts19


18/114


atug t mjirgas ccuss pmpt jct b bt t b shura t hzb ism c, Gubu hkmt, s tss,20 t g mmtumt cct t t b sp s just b s m t gu

tt, s Sct Gts put t, t t t , tts mst s atugts pcpt but t ccts tmt s cmm, t s pps t bus as cmc stu s pt ut, t c s ccug bt1940 1992, 71 pct t btt, t 29 pct g gtt sttmts21 e m tstg, tug t tgsts pp tgt t t st t g mjt css, t s bt mkb g gsst sk pcu ts m t stuggsbut utut up t t ts succssu sttmt Ts sm utcms usu bt bcus t cmbt-ts t tt g cmpms, bcus t ug ccts tsts t ccptb tms cpt, bcus gmts

pssbcb guts qutb cmt t ckg

atug t st mpmt c smtms b cm b t psc utscts, t s t mg tt u pp agst, t pcpt gt s t mst pu cut t tt pps t b t t k cmbtts t stugg a ts mpstt cc gs t t st ss qut t Gtss mks Bupst sm t suggst s tt, succssu ccus t t cct agst s t bt, t t b pcu, t st t st stc, bms t t cct t t b sp

Ts ubtb ccus s c bcus Mu om s rahbari shura Qutt s ct ts t gg sttmt t sttc b Kz o t ccss suc s pp t b t-t, t b sp s sp t utgus bus uccptbcts, suc s t cmpt t g cs m agst, tcg t t sut ag pcs b Kbu t b ct, t c-cptc t bs ismc csttut s t ptc ut t agstt as mpszg t tug jct cct t Kbu, t

sugt s ct gss t c gmt t t aggmt t pst b b k atug ts utcm s usuttbut agst, t sm justct, t t Pkst tgc scs,t ms mtc sg t u-b ccs tt t Kzs ttt cts pcs m b, t om hkmt hqqpps t tst gtt t t agst Ts ugct ctu um t obm mstts ct smt tgt, c s m t t -gc cmmtt bc t b

G t csstt jct cct b t b sp t s,

t s pts tt Su ab, c t c c bck t b, st


19/114


sct tks Mcc bt pstts t Kz gmt t bsrahbari shura sm mtc utt tpc T cus ptg but tsut t ut mp ts mpct Sm sts cm tt Kg abu ms

sups t gtts; ts cm tt t m Pkst pm mst,nz S, bk t mtg s pst t t scusss; st ts cmtt pstts t bs s, hkmt hqq, pst, tt Mu om ms submtt st ms tt bcm t subjct gtt22 a t, t us s pts but ts t, c tk pc Sptmb 2008 u e -t, c t mpss s cctSu tt tt s t, t m s pmtc bsc, t c gtt tmt t cct agst bcus t kgms cgt t ptc kss Pkst t t stm t gt Q23

atug m ts ts mtg st uc, t tus ut tt ts Su-stt s m psc t t b stts, t nz S pstts Gubu hkmt Ju hqq ctupst; m mptt, Mu om s rahbari shura s t pst T gst b mmbs pst t t mtg pp t b Mu

abu Sm Z, t m b mbss t Pkst, Mu amMutk, t m b g mst ug t s p nt Z Mutk s cs t om, js s cc, pss s s psttut, t tt t mtgsupsg, g t s pts tcm m t Sus t i ct, rs mbssmt t bg ssct t t

b stc ts g tcc mtts pmc su tt Kzsccs qusts tcss t t b csstt g24

T ts mtg st cm m Qum Kz, US ctz tbt t ag pst, k s bck cs cs t t s t t pu tgt pt, m scuss t p t pspcts b cct uts t c PS pgm T Sus t p stt t s sst tck-t t, tt tt ss sm tt mtg bcus t just tt c cu stm t gg

t t ts, just s t PS tt s bcm mst pt , mst mptt, t Mcc mtg gtts bt tpts, pt bcus t m ag pstt, t t g tt c bs b, s Qum Kz, s c pst , spt s t-sp t t pst, t ut s t mpsz tt t pst t

ag gmt atug t Su sts b t s sm ptcssus, t subsqut cgs tt ccu mst pt gus, ppp-t pps st-mmb ag gt csstg mus stgMcc rm as Mu am Mutk, t m b g mst

tt t t t scb tutu, T tks b

pstt s t it s m mtg 25


20/114


ts scc pb, t Su-st ps t ct b cst b mgu ctbut t cct t t b sptst t t T rahbari shura t jct t tt t t Mu

hs rm, tmt Mu om, cg p tt t t b succssu t amcs t nao cs stt t T mts t gg t b t [sic] t ms Smtms t tks,smtms t t k ssus T b t suc tks, t t ts tks t b nt t Su ab tt [ Mcc] tSu ab pps [gg Mu om] s ccptb26 a-Qs sc cmm, am a-Z, cm s , tg tg tt ag ttmptst gtt t t b sg t gmts kss27

o bc, cct t t b tus pps t b m cut t

t pps t st sgt atug t m ptcpts pssb mcts, t s b tt tgb pgss spt t csg cgusscuss t subjct s uts agst T PS tt, ccctts tgtg t sugt cs, s mg succss, -gtts t t b sp, s t ttu st z b s, t gtt t gu u t tt stc s mm t csstt jct ppcmt b Mu om s ct Qutt T ccs succss, t t, t b p b Kzs pscbut cspcuus s t cct, t t mst ct upsug m bs ct pcmts t tg s

T sm c cct t t b, , s t pt cts m cmpg t cus s t sut t t cut cu-ts t wst agst eups skg t b ut ts mkg m mt ctbuts t t , t cct sttct bcus t ps sut tt pmts t cct t b tmt t cst t tmss, tut cug t ppbum st t cstg t t amcs t gtg tt s sgtt tm t t s ck b sus pbms t m, cct t t

b s sm tgs Ts b t cus but t ccbut t sm t cut nao sttg sp but t sbt tt s up s uctt suppts cct

it s sups tt agsts gbs m mg t mst t ppts t i, i, Uzbkst, jkst, russ ctu t b mtpps t gtt gmts tt u pmt t b t t btt s gtmt c ag ptcs t tu t p Kbu tg b jct m t cpt b c T pcs c b t-Pstu gups t agst ts, s tsts tcut mst c

b k csttuts t nt t a, t suts t pt ps


21/114


agst ct, t Pstu mjt t t cut s ppst t b G t tst ppst t t b bt t uts

agst, t s mst ct tt t gups gtmt ts tu t p

tug ct ms u pcptt c t t cut, tt cts bg suppt b t gbg stts g s

o s t m sm, Pkst, c stc s b st ms tbs stgst bs suppt, s mbt but t cct

atug mt Pkst c s m suppt t t,t ts but t btt gup t c tu pc-ts mk tm ss t tusstc bcus t s ccg ts mpct Pkst T Pkst am t s b pps but cct t t

ag b bcus t tts t um t gg mt pts

u gst t Pkst cutpt

a t, t, t succssu ccg t ag gmt t tag b sp s t k spc pmsg, t sms t m cts t b T pcp bstc s, cus, t btmss S g s t cc tt mt ct agst s -tb, Mu om s rahbari shura cts ts t ctmpt k cct t t ag gmt Tus, Pst obmsct cutus umts but cg ut t t b b mt t sps cs jct rctg t t psts Mc 8, 2009, mks

b a c o, t b spksm, Zbu Muj, ct tt ts cuus t st [t] b [t] s-c mt[s] umt[sts]h s c tt t cu b tks t t Kz gm ut ttt tps t m agst empszg tt t b s mmt ut u t sp Mu om [sic], Muj smss tus t cctt ag amc tt t su-gts tt t ctu t ut t ag gmt s t28

Tt t b c succssu pmt t cm tt ct s pusbspt

t pt us t btts tbut t t upct ctppg , s tstmt t t sutss wst ppu-ts t t B ccg k ucs nao cuts tt t sugts cb t cpb ctg t ct t ptct ub , t b m t cm cct m ugt t

just t tm t s ct t b mst usuccssu Ts b t ptcspmss t um t obm mstts ct tst cct s

, t pc s m m t t cmm u t sugc tts supm sp


22/114


thinking about

ReconciliationstRategically

T st tm t ctmpt cct t t b s t pcp-t s gg gu, cct, tt t mmts bjcts tcusp bg z i t btss cm c b gzt s tuttt b s pmt psc 72% agst, up m 54% g tt ts pmt psc t cut s cs b sttg18%29 t b u ct t cc t t

ag gmt t wst bcus ptc ct t mbtt stt cu

b scu tug btt succsss m s t tug cctts, c cu ptt pu cmpmss Skg gtts tt sugts suc ccumstcs u suggst tt t ct s ccptt tbt t u k t m utgus b cts smp smss ct tts bcus ct s t

e t pbm k b cts t gtt t ts juctu s su-mutb, t s smp uc t Kz gmt t ct mg c cm t tt cgs ssct t succssu c-

ct: stgusg bt t mbs t t s tppst; cg ut t t m ct s; , , sug tt cct, t c b c ut, ct b pmt T s ctusm g s : cct t k mts t ag sstc ispssb But t s sm usttg s s : suc ppcmt ct ccut b b sttg s ctu t t gu s substtut cctg t cts tt m b s succssu agst it s, mgu cct ccu t t ct cs tsttgc bjcts t s ugt sc 2001; t obm mstt pusust tgt t -gc sugts pct ts pms, t st

gt cc succss

ChaPer 2


23/114

Box 1

the taliban MoveMentT Taa omp:

The rahbari shura centered around Mullah Omar and his cohort in Quetta and the subsidiary war

councils in Quetta, Miran Shah, Peshawar, and Karachi;

The ideologically committed Taliban cadres who survived the deeat in Aghanistan are controlled by

the regional shurasand continue to draw on the madarisin the Federally Administered Tribal Areas

(FATA) and the reugee camps in Pakistan or their continuing recruitment;

The tribal networks o ormer mujahideen commanders like Jalaluddin Haqqani, who operates in

Paktika, Paktia, and Khowst provinces and provides a key bridge between al-Qaeda and the Taliban;

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who leads the Hizbe Islami and operates in Nangarhar, Konar, and Nuristan

provinces; Anwar-ul-Haq, who leads the Hizbe Islami, Yunus Khalis action, who also operates in the

Nangarhar area and is believed to lead the Tora Bora Military Front; and Saiullah Mansoor, a veteran

feld commander who is known to be active in the eastern areas o Aghanistan;

The Pakistani Taliban commanders like Baitullah Mehsud, the chietain o the Mahsud tribe in South

Waziristan; Maulana Faqir Muhammad, who is associated with the Tehrik-e-Naaz-e-Shariat-e-

Muhammad (TNSM) and who operates in the Bajaur Agency; Maulana Qazi Fazlullah, also afliated

with the same group but operating out o Swat; Mangal Bagh Aridi, who leads the Lashkar-e-Islami in

the Khyber Agency and is believed to be part o a larger local opposition network led by Muti Munir

Shakir; and Shari Khan and Nur Islam, tribal leaders who have demonstrated considerable operationaleectiveness in South Waziristan;

The groups ormerly ocused predominantly on Kashmir, such as Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-

e-Taiba, but that have now become ervent allies o the rahbari shura and, in the case o the latter,

al-Qaeda as well;

The drug lords in eastern and southern Aghanistan, especially in Helmand and Kandahar provinces, who

are either taxed or willingly contribute revenues that are indispensable or the Taliban war against Kabul;

The sundry ormer anti-Soviet commanders who control small groups o fghters and are engaged

primarily in criminal activities such as bank robberies, kidnappings or ransom, and assassinations olocal ofcials while they simultaneously oer their services as guns or hire;

The disaected Aghan Pashtun tribes, most conspicuously the rural Ghilzai but also the smaller Durrani

ormations, which, eeling disenranchised in the current governing arrangements, continue to support

the Taliban with manpower and sanctuary within Aghanistan; and, fnally,

Al-Qaeda, which, while distinct rom all the oregoing groups in that its ocus o operations remains the

global jihad, nonetheless collaborates with the Taliban in order to assist the insurgents in recovering

control o Kabul while it continues to preserve its sanctuary in the FATA in the interim.


24/114


Ustg ts ccus qus ppct t t mgpcs t b sugc atug t b t scuss s t mgus ppst, t u ts s sst cmzg bstct:

tgt cs ptc tt t t bst tms, t b t bcm s tk t us gups as tgs st cut,t b c b scb mst ccut s spt cgs s mts(s b 1) ut b cmm gus g; s t g p t agst t c s pt; p tgsm t tcut gmt agst t Ut Stts ts g s

acss m t csttut tts tt m t b, t s pssb t tt b ctgs cts, c t t tttus t cctT st ctg sugts cssts t c sp us gups tt

s t bs g bjcts t gups cmmtt t ss ct t tg t cut ag gmt gg p Kbu tug c

T sc ctg cssts ags, Pstus cs t supptb pts s u-tm pt-tm ptcpts t bcus g s -ms uct suc cm mpmt ccumstcs tpptuts st; bcus t c b psc ps pubc gs sucs scut, justc, gc, pmt tt t ag stt s gct; bcus ptcpt t b sugc bcms m ptst gst

t cupt bus su t t s c stt ucts suc s tpc t stct gs c

T t ctg cssts ag tb s, ut psts ttbs, subtbs, cs, gs m g, suppt t b t sut t st T stgst suppts t b ts s us -t t t tbs bgg t t Gz ct, tug sm mmbs t sm p du tbs suc s t az, isqz, nz supptt b stg s 30

Ts tct b suppts b tb s t mp tt t mj agtb cts spcc tbs t tm s t t uts ct zg t sugc Uss t tb s sttut s pttt ptcu gumt, tb ts tugut ts pt m t tsucs m c t b s ts mp Csqut, tb ts t css ct tt tbs s sc stuctus t-tb s ps spsb stkg t upsg T b sugc ct s notcus tb pm: tug tb ptcs ps mptt m

s, tb ts c s sgus t css m b u gts

t ps, gus, tst ss


25/114


w t tb bs t mst, , t c suggsts tt -s ccuts t suppt b tb g uts tsugc i sm stcs, tb sp suppt t b s m

tc cmptt Bcus t Kz gm s t mmbs ctcsgu tbs ptc c, ptg, sucs, t scscmptts t suppt t b s ms gttg t ts mpz t sps

i t stcs, m tbs t s suppt t b smp bcust ccu tt t sugts g bcus t bs sm ct cs cg t spcc c tsts i st t stcs,tb suppt t b s m t ct tt t gus sugts s tmss t b cuptbuk t gmt cutpts

t bugt , , justc tug p gc sstm ts u t ct Sts g sut st agst but k tb g s cqusc t t b psc, t ts ucmtb t t gups g, bcus t sugts p bt m t tmb ptt cupt tt sms t pgu tss u ct t gmt t s

wt t ss m b g cs, t ctc stgusg tt ttb sps suppt t b t s tt t s t mg m -gc st t t mmts mbts rt, suppt t sugc

psts ct c t ptst gst t mgzt ct tbs,subtbs, cs; t t bg t t pps t b t g s t gg stugg p; smtms smp s t j t uts scut sustc, c t sstc sms b t t s ut ct ctst t t gmt, c ct Ts stumt cct tb suppt t b sugc t sut st s mst buscm b t ct tt, bcus mt tbs mt ptc t m mjt tbs t tt, t stgst suppt t sstc s mt ss c stc31

azg t mgpcs t b mmt ts cts t pssb-ts cct t sttgs qu t c t Ts t st ctg pps t smst umb t t gups, but, bg t tu gccmmtt ts t mmt, t uk t b ccb tms T sk t cmpt stuct t mt gm Kbu tugt psc tk t sut t st s pu t t cmpt cqust

agst T Ut Stts ts ct tt but t t st t mmbs ts tgt st bcus t tu mpcb s


26/114


T sc ctg ags, t spt us sst t ct, spbb t gst umb s ccb pcp t ptc ctstt spu t ptstt bsc ps scut, justc, cmc p-

ptut, cup t ps gmt cupt bus mtgttug bt ct i t ag stt t tt ct ctg tm c mpmt sttgs tt c t st -bg

ags (ptcu ts u s s s tt s muc bcms, mts, ug s, c pc, t gmt cs s t s bt sugts), p ct sstm spsg justc sp t t c, ct cmc pptuts t t pputs g uts tcuts mj cts, t stg u b st t pgss ct t t--b lumpenproletariat m Mu om s ct t tgmt Kbu

T t ctg b suppts, c cssts t tb g -cs t sut st pcs pbb sm btt st t sc gupgs umb, s s ccb pcp bcusts csttuts t s cmmtt t g t sugc s mtt g T ptc gcs gst t ct gmt g t tsg p sucs t gss t suppt pps t b

g agst mps tt cut u tb s c b uct st t ts t Kbu t c gg gmts bcm mqutb, mg tt t stt ts ts cut pc ptzg ct

csgu tbs s , pps m mptt, t gmts s t b gg t upp ts cut st t t b T spps tg tt u m t Gz du cts cutsuppt t b t p cc t t gtmt utts Kbu mt t pcpt ct ccug t t wst ct Ts pcss c b b ts tcqus tt tt k agst: submt,tgt s pts, s ptct t suppts Ts stumtsbcm ub ct t gm tt mpmts tm s bt succssu pc t b succssu ptc ss gst ts ss

w cs sttgc, t gc cct, t, cms u cc it ag stt c, t t ssstc ts g pts, mpmt sttgstt bgt succss t gutt s, p ps scut pptuts sustc t t ppuc t g, mmz t gmt bus p, c-pt t tbs tug p sg tt cts mctc pcpstus pput t t ctgs sstc -gc ss

u t cts t st m ppst t m cstuc-t cbt t t stt Bcus cct ts ccumstcs s tt sut mpt ptc tts ct gtt bgs cptg

m cg bgtss s b t ppc tus but tug


27/114


t tsmt t stuts tt m sstc justb, t pbmsssct t pst cct us c ct b bt i cgs tptc mt cus ppts t st t supptg t gmt, stt

utt s m t bu g t stgus p t ccbsm t t s M, t gmt s sp t cg gt ct m sttgs cmpms bcus sttmt ccus t bcus ptcu ptc pgm, but bcus t stuctu cts t t stt tmss pgss spp a, , t gm s bt m t g t cp t csm bcus, s g s t gmt s b t ubsts t ms tt pus pcptt stt, t g ccus psg t c s csb mmz

T succss cct agst qus, t, ug ct

g t t stt- t-bug ts u u ts scu t st pspcts succssu ppcmt t t cutbut s, s, pug t t t g-sc cs tt bts ut t-sm ts pptustc mg b Kbus gbs T ct qust ts ctt, t, ms t puc t ptc-mt ct ttmks cct pssb , t tt pt, m cmpms bcmsst css


28/114


Winning the WaR

by seeking claRityabout goals

a sttg tt sks t cug cct tug ptc-mt succssqus ct but t cg gs Ts s spc mptt t cs

agst, t pts u g ct sm t- cuts t itt Scut assstc c (iSa), c cusnaos tt-s mmbs, m c pp t uqu tsts, smt b pusug t gs, but b s ptc pssus t mit s ct ptcu pbmtc tt t gt s cmbt pts,

t s sp uctt bt t Ut Stts eup but t tcts mt ctts t t c agst Suc cust cs c cs but s ums t bt t pts tmust t css sucs qu t succss t mss

T g ct pts agst must b t ct ct stt ttc ct ts t tt t ps scut, sps g-c, cmc pmt css t su t stbt ntg ss

suc pupss ttg ct agst cspcuus us

g ts mss puc t ptc ccumstcs tt mt cut sptb t -Q t bg t w ts t ms sgub sb s, t t, mpct ug t amc ts agst sc t B Cc 2001t s bcm csgsuspct bt t Ut Stts eup s t t iSa oe pts

agst tu ut t b m g t t pct

St J K (d-Mss), mp, s gst mbtus c-stuct agst t t mk t u 51st stt, suggstg tt bjcts tt cut b mt m t sug tt t s t bcm

-Q c-stt tst bc cpb stbzg gbg

ChaPer 3


29/114


Pkst32 Sm, vc Pst Jsp B, bu 2009 spc t tMuc Scut Cc, c c cb gs,33 quctstt b tpt, gst t bckp s pts but pss-

mstc mstt ssssmts, s mtg US ms agst e Pstobm, tugut s ct cmpg pt m tt agsts t ct t t tt u mk t gt gst Q t b t tp pt tt t su b bcus ts s tt t

,34 pp t b ttg i dcmb 7, 2008, t nBCsMeet thePress, obm tcut t mt bjct sug tt agstct b us s bs t uc ttcks gst t Ut Stts , g c ag sstc t t psc g tps, stt tt s umb g u b t stp -Q35

C, t g g tt t Ut Stts t tt cmmutcmmtt tmss t, st, tug t B agmt , t, tug ts suc-css, t agst Cmpct Ju 2006m, sg ct agstts u pssu t utgt ttck u b ctqus ts bjctcut pp t b cscg, c tcut t g gs ct

T st ctqu ssts tt, g agsts st, ts scptc ptcuts, ts cmpt stg pmt, bug m ag stt s smpb t cpct t wst cut ccumstcs , c, nao (tcu t Ut Stts) ugt t cmmt ts t t m mst g smp

mtg -Q, c s t g pcptt tt just US tt agst

T sc ctqu, bg m t ssumpts m t st sc, sgus tt t cut US bjct sg m ag stt s cmcbcus t cut stc s j ubk tt stg sttutz ct utt; st, ts pc psz ptcs, cs ts tt m subt sc mts suc s tc, gustc, sct tbs, mps tt t b g agst su b stg ts

tb sct mus t tmsm, t ttmptg t cstuct ctz stti ct, ts u sk t cstuct agst s cpus pt i tt ss, cpus stt s tt cks , t ag ctt, ttm c b us t t t psc sgct subt sc mtstt cmpt mg tmss t bsc pg t bt

T t ctqu, g ccptg m t pccpts tt mt t tt scs tugt, u gu tt t s m stt mpssb tcstuct agst, mt cpus pt u b t stbsbcus t p suppt cst ss ismpst b t

b sm k gs t cut Csqut, pusug sm k


30/114


cct t t b tt pmts t css sstm t b pc-u ccmmt t t sttb ctg m pt t umtstcmptspsts t bst p t cct

T ut ctqu jcts t ccuss b t t t scs it c-cpts tt t gs pm mtg -Q, csttutg mt tbsct, cptg t b t t pt t suc t u cct t c t cts g ms agst it u m,t, t csst ctg ct ptc s sb sttgcbjct but u gu tt t mpmts t stb ptcs t b tt ctqus mp tt suc gm agst csst b utt- Csqut, ts sc u ug t wst ct t st ctg m stt, but tt s t css mctc cct S g s t

gm c ct ts tt ct, bt utt stt ugt tsuc Ts u b spc tu t csts g ut stb, pppstt gmt agst k t b naos ptccpct c t sb utu

atug ts ctqus ugt t b p s cct t t m smtmspp s css mbtus t-bug gs, t cmm ptc mssu b jct bcus t u um t minimalsttgc s tcut tt mt agst Tt s, s subtt, ssmp t su tt agst g bcms tt tmst gups

t stps c us t mut ctstpc ttcks t mmbs t cmmut as Pst obm cct mpsz, ou m mst gt agst bcus a Q ts st tsts p suppt t 9/11 ttcks Pkst agst a t ag gmt s t t b s Q t g ucgtt cut g b bs tsts t t k s m u pps t pssb c36 G t ug US t scut tst g

agst ts -Q b psts, none t tt ms ppsb t u ctqus c su t zt ts st gtb bjct Ts

pu ct ugt t b ctmpt cu, ptcu t tm t obmmstt s k t cm u csb pssu m Cgss teups t stt t stsb ss mbtus gs agst

it s tmptg, mp, t b tt tg -Q ( tb tm) cu subsst s gu tt t bug ct stt agst ambss Cs w m J, mp, gus pcssuc mt m ssts tt

w t c t s t t agst t st pc ou

pups s t t us ag tt t tsts t gb


31/114


c Tt s s ttb bjct it s mt bjct ttc b c t sb cst w must tu t utss cus tsbjct w ct t pusu gs, t, tt ctct

um t T m ag ptcs, sct ms must t37

T mtts ts gumt su b bus: t ccus t -Q ts s cu ctu b cstt t bsc mmct ag stt ts s bg it bg tcg ts m stctg s t gut tt succss tts t -Q ts sscts ts ttmpt t us t sttss spcs t agst t mut ct tsm ks ttcks pus mut b osm B ls ct

o t psc succssu ag stt, cpb csg t wb

mp c t ts t bus, c t t cuc suc tt t g tt suc tt c ctu ps scut, ctgc, sps u t ts ctz, t u mmz t cts ts btts t ctu suppt tmst gups suc s -Q, t b, t succsss Csqut, bctg spsbt cstuctg stb ct stt, cut busm tt m b t tm,gub u t c t mm bjcts c US tt agst ccu g i ct, pusug t mt g cusg -Q ts pts, suc s t b, t t cus ctg stb

ag stt, cu p m cst t g u

a t t t st ctqu, c ugs cus cus cutt-sm t t gct stt bug agst, s m t stct bt-Q t b as Zk s gu,

T Ut Stts s pp utb pps t a Q stt-gc, ptc m gusbcus ts s t s t ct butt t cz w sgct cs t t b m ssusmcc t ttmt m bg t mst sus

But t g t ismst gups t c smsg (t Su mc, mp)38

T b, ts ss, t st c ismst gup tt t Ut Sttsm sk, but t c t c , uk -Q, c s msss tt must b utss pscut ot cmmtts tk ts stctt ts gc ccus Bcus -Q sts pm Pkst t

agst, ts cmmtts gu tt pts t agstsu b s u t btt cctt sucs gst t -Q sctu Pksts tb bt Ts ppc, ccg t ts cts, t

s t tg tg tt pssu t s pps


32/114


t t supc pptt s ts t pbms ssct t pssug g Pkst t pt t css-b mmt b sugts m tstts t agst39 M wsgt ts gumts, bs t

stct bt -Q t b, t b cg T just sp cmpt t m agst tut ut stmts t bug smutus ptg t cts m ppg pusmus mstcptcs at , t s-Qs t agst m t bg t, t g s-tst s cu t b t UtStts ( ts s) t m gg ts cst busm stt-bug Kbu?

Utut t cts t m agst, t sp stcts ttt sk t bt t b -Q smp t tb t

atug t s c stct, us tsp btt t, t s p t Sptmb 11, 2001, m k mts t bsugc -Q sc bcm tt spb40 a-Qscus st ms pm t gb j, but t s s t b t sugt ctts Pksts tb bt agst Ts suppt susu mst tug c ssstc, tcc tg, pt c-t, s gstcs, t s t t buttssg t sugt tks t sctus tt pmt -Q t pt m pt s css ts ctu ctss M t bs csttut cmpts, tu,ctbut t -Q pts tug ssstc cutg, tctc cpt

t, cpt ttcks cmm ss

T bttm , t, s tt t s tu mpssb t t stgus bt-Q m ts b cts t gu bcus t ptcbt s s ts mutus Mu du aku, k agb cmm scb b s t t tsp bt t b -Q b sttg p, w k t a Q gzt w cs t bt gzt, c ss u g ccpts w cs ts cstt ctcts t t ou cpt s amttg tt t

b cpts t -Q agst, ckg tt tm, sk t p mp, t bmbgs c ut tm tm w t tps pts m tm s w cpt p c t41 Ts smbtc tsp bt -Q t bs s ct t tts as Tms Js s mstt s cu ss b gt tts, t cus c ag ssuss b cmpmt b cts ct t t gb ummah, tmpg t cuts ssct t osm B l Ts pg , g tc , cbts t pg tgmt bt tb -Q, st tt Js ccus s pcb s t b

gt stgt t tt ts tu gst t wst42


33/114


e wst ms agst t mt t t mst mm gs tg tsm, -Q tsm t tt, t b t-t t Ut Stts ts c pts t pscut t gst t

b just s gusin Aghanistan. Ts s bcus t c suggsts tt tmst c cct t t Ut Stts, -Q m k bcsttutssuc s t rahbari shura, hkmt, hqq, u-hq, lsk--b, just t m tm tb tcs b ppstt bt t gmt agst t wst ct t g a tsb tts m m cpt t -Q s agst s suts t Csqut, t Ut Stts t t uu bg b tsggt sm pst b mt tt c b ccmmt bcus t ppst b mp c ism but t ccut gb tsm

t sm s, US pc s t b b t pu ut agst tgus tt t m s Pkst: t ct t c agst, sm pt t, t t b sugc, ts mtts cutt pt t agst, st t agstPkst b, st t Pkst u smp t ts sctut t UtStts t ctu t pts gst t wst utupt asPst obm summz t , amc t m Kbu u gt t

ag pp t tu t b u [tt] u cm t cutt but gc, tt st, pz cm, t bsc um gts t t ag ppspc m gs [M,] t

tu c Q tsts u ccmp t c b spu cst agst u t s pptu c43 dtg ts ttqus tt t Ut Stts m scc agst Ts sts ug ctu ppst t -Q s t gu smutus tm agst sm t b tt cuttsm pts gst -Q( gst t b, css) c b cuct stsct wsgtmts tgb mt psc agst o t ssumpt tt -Q tsts c b ct suppss tug st ttcks cuct bum cmbt sstms (suc s t MQ-1 Pt MQ-9 rp)

stks, t ccu tt US mt t m agst su um gg cuttsm pts44

Tt ts gumt s s t t s e t pbm -Q bgtm t t b s t sg pupss gumt, t ttt st ttcks u suc t suppss ts us s s t qutc stts, cs cpb cuctg tct stks t b bs sm pmt t t m; pts gst -Q t cuctpm tug cmbt p Spc cs bs agst BcusPkst t Ct as stts t pmt bsg -gtg ssts t

tts ct uk t cg t sb utut tt,


34/114


ct mt cs t agst, b t t s t t Ps Gu stts amc ct cs ptg t abS45 T tt, cus, ct bs t Pt sstms t t pst tm; ,

tug t ms p c b p m bt t Gu sttsssumgt gb m ct cs, t stc m uc st t tgt bt stcs s s gt tt t u b sckg suc msss tu ut tb ct but t smst umb css

gtg mt ptg t -Q tts stc s s btm g tm sst; t US cs p cs t suctgts agstt c succssu utzg -Q ptss b m t bst G ts t, t s smp mstg s t cccu tt st ttcks cuct gst suc tg tgts m cs

t t agst c b succssu psstt pt stksm ag bss ug t pst gt s b ub t cmpt ctt mst mptt tst tgts tst t t Ut Stts

Ts pbm cu, cus, b ccumt b gttg gmts tagst cmbt bsg Pts stk ct t wsgtbs Kbu, pus ts tps ut t cut, ucs ts mss sttbug agst w t ags u tst suc g-mt ms pcb, ptcu bcus Kbu u, tug suc , tsm ts cut t tgt -Q ttcks t pcs t

tm t st t substt ptcts pus b t UtStts ts ss, t t tt st ttcks cuct m stc

u suc t utz -Q t c US t m agstmust b jug s cu, spc suc pts cuct u mb ccumstcs t puc suts M, t tm

t -Q tk s bcmg t stgus m ts usb s s s tts t t Ut Stts ts pts cc, t tt st ttcks c b cuct succssu, t c US

t m agst, cus t mgt

Ts pssmstc ccuss, t, csc t usc bsc pt: succssucuttsm pts, ts cus -Q, qu tgt-g -Qs s s ; ts s t t cs, amc cuttsmgs, , ct b pmt z agst tut bgmb t g stt t bug wt b qu,t, s cmmtmt t ts g bjct, m, sg ct

ag stt tt, b bg b t ct ts tt t suppt tsppuc, c cut t tsm ttg amc tsts m ctt t pupt tts smp pusug cuttsm ms

agst pmtu tg t cut


35/114


Skg t st cpus ag pt mt b tt tb stuc-tus s ps ssuc tt tts k -Q t b u bccus sct Ts ccus s sgct bcus m, suc s d

Bz t Ct isttut, sk t cut tt s s b s u, s t mk ss t t amc stgt t bug stgct stt? o mgt b b t tct uss s ccpt c-tz agst t sm gs u b gups tt cut gtggst u tps?46 it s mptt t cgz, stts, tt ps tucpus ptcs b m ag st M, t psttb sstm agst, c puc mtc mgs t gs sc but b sgs, s b g stt tks t t cs t cct sp b t St s 1979 , t s t tb s agst c cs uqu ct t tt

tts tug t csmtc ptm sp rt, tb ptcstugut t Pstu bt s umt gmt, t stuggs p sucs ccug t m mg t gst tb cts but bt t smst btts pput b mmbs t sm tb o abcut s cptu t mc succct, M gst m bts, m mbts gst m cuss, m m cuss gst t 47 T cutptc cmptt agst, t, smbs hbbss mtc stt tu, t s sg qut mg supt subtsc uts g t bg ss T tt tu t cptcs, ct pm t tt tb sstm, s t pssb s t

cmc i ct, spt ts ttt cuts, ctg mm ctct stt mgt tu ut t b just t s t csttutg t ptcsstm bs t pmc t pcu, s-gg tbs as MStmck s pt ut,

t, cmmtts mstk tk t tt agst s bt ugb tugut st s ck ct gmt

s c t tugut ts tt i ct, ut t t 1970s,agst b t stb pg cut muc t

ttt ctu it s p cut, t b su, but t stt ttc ut bsc gmt ucts tt b gu ptc cmc pgss48

Bcus c ptc cmptt t agst s k t m t m g tm t cm, t s tu t pcu cpus gm m sct it cu s b ptcu gus i bt

t agsts us sc mtsccug t bsc ctct utts sm tm t c ut t tst gups suppt t c stuggs p, t stut tt pk t g tuc-

t -Q t agst u b pct i g ccss t


36/114


tt tst tks c, tcg, mp s s tks tgbzt, skg t suct cpus ptct t qustbssumpt tt tb sttuts b s-st s-qubtgcu

b t, g bt t cct t ptc tt cctzs t agtb sstm t ct gc czt t ag bs

Mtgtg ts ptgs qus ct ct stt T csst suc gzt, , s t mp tt t stg tb stuctus ugt tb btt t tt pgs t bg rt, ct utts sst pcs t mk t gtmt tb sttuts ct t smutus cts s stt t ptt csss as t st

agst s s, ts mc tgums t t bst succssu mtg ptc pcs bcus t b t utz tb utts t

ct b ctts gtt pc b g t s mt spsb ssts cts Suc ut sttg mtg pc qupc mm ct stt; suc sttut t b cut, s mp b mc, t must b suct pu t su tt subt sct gups t up, ss c cmptt, pusugptc cs t t g stts stt cts cu ps ttt t ag pt t tt cmmut Ts m ct b c bcstuctg cpus gm s tt t t cut US m ct-g ct stt agst; bcus t m u st t squ t su amc tt scut, wsgt s cc but

t pusu ts pst bjct t succssu ccus, mtt cgg tttsk s k t b t ss t b t ctcs t cut pc

i t tt gs smp mtg tst tmst gups agst stg cpus pt bs t pmc tb sttuts smt sc gzts ct puc t ctc bt justg US t-tmtg agst s suc tt t t t substtut, ctg m gm b ccmmtg umtst b tt cmmts t pc,tus ut t b qu sstus s ls h Gb cts suc cmpms

gus tt, s st s t b , amcs t tsts t qut cus m p agst, s g s t t suppt tttsts49 Pusb s ts cm mgt sm pm c, t c pbm t p-sg sut ms t b tmss t ptc bjc-ts, c, t t m b t pst, c bsut umttg Smp stt, Mu om s rahbari shura m t pgssg t ct ctc Pstu tts, stct b stct, s put stg t ct Kt btpc t bt t utmtg cg Kbu tug t p agst T bscut ptc-mt sttg s t t t ts , b

t cct tt t wst b ub t st t cus agst t


37/114


g u, om s s csstt us tus cctbcus t b tt tt ct pp t t gsp

e , mb ctu, t b t g t p sg s sut c-ct t t ag gmt, suc sttmt u b pusu s tctc cmpms sg t c t t t tt cmmut m

agst o t ccss t b sp s c -tst ptc cct, t mst mptt pct c b tsugts s b t supsg t t g cs m tcut at cg ts g, t b u b b t tu t stct pts, cbtg s css t t gc cs t uts agst, t sstmtc st ptc ppst scubsut ct t stt

hg scu p suc s, Mu oms gm m tu ut t bt kg, t ts csm psg tt t t t t

ags u ts gp at t, suc s t gumt us b Pkst ug t1990s, t ug p US ggmt t t b But ts utcms t t ctt st t t, t mst c t t UtStts Pcs bcus t b m but cmmtt t bscutstb ism, tt pcs t wst t b ct mm, t t m-t mt tt t t t Musm , t s tg tt pts tsgup, c t s tu t p, m g succ ssstc t t

c ismsts u pt ts sptt t g gst t gcuts, t Ut Stts, t wst m g i, t s s e ut p, t b ts t t tmstgups tt s t mss, pm ts, t mu ppsss s pps t s T t cugg sm k cc-t t t b tt pmts t css sstm t b ccmmt

agsts gg gmts s t g t sbb t u puc t ccumstcs tt pcptt US mttt t bg t

at t t cct t ts gup ts -Q s, ccptg bpsc t t c t ag stt, ccptg t psc s ptcc ag sct tug sm st gtt st su, u sg amc sttgc t -cg csquc tugut tismc it u s pst pu bt t ps mst

ags , tug t B pcss ts tmt, c ct ts mt ptc gm ct m stt T b t cs agst ( Pkst) tt suppt tm pst mt t ptcs; csqut, cct t t b tt s

t ptcpt gtmt gc c ccu t t umt


38/114


upstt ms b t tug cmbt ptc m-t stumts w suc utcm ccus, t b cs t b scut tt ptc ccmmt tt c tk pc tms

umt b t ag stt

T tt pst b t ut ctqu bt uttsmct pps tcg ctst t t t t ppcs, but t t uutmt b u tg it s utut tt m eup buucts ppt b cmtb t suc sut as s nao c, scbg tobm mstts st t bg muc m stc but agst,ppg t, it st t b mcc, just scu50 T sttg sttg ccptb ctt51 Kbu ubt s sm mpttbutsupcts t cut wst ms agst: t ss t

ctg m stt b t ct ts tt um scut cm-ps t ts btts w t s umt s ts gss tscc pstt gmt, bcus t cuts ctg suc m u agst, utctc gm tt c gut tb pt t cut m bg tts t ts t t ttcmmut Ts pt s t cmp stt c eup s ttt t tt amc g pmtg mctc agst bcus t spsum tt st uttsm Kbu u b s t sttutz ,c, cu b z t uc cst b tsu t t wst

it s uk, , tt uttsm u ctu s ts t-s mg e t ggg qusts t bg cttsps stbg t g tm t t ag pp u b sts tsuc gm sg, t s g s t suspct tt psttgmt u utmt t psg mstc Ts

u b ptcu tu agst, c s cttus sct Bcus utt gm c mt tug pu cc but must c-ptg ct sc gups t sust ts p, cttsp

agst up tb gtmzg t gm ptcu sc

mt, b t t tb t subtb t c, ts Ts scgup, c bts t bcus ts csgu t ts t t us, csst b pmp t bcus sucs u t b qutbstbut t t ptc suppt s t b mt Ts qu-t, , u cbt t tss bt s ss agst,

t t stt t bg cmp t csg cc t mg tsstuggs kp tm t bus T pg c cc ub g btt pts tt utt gm agst cuctu subsst s bt tt


39/114


M pbmtc, , bcus ptc cmptt s b stugg p pt, t b tt t pt t stg tts t tcut m g t t sucs suppt mgt b bcug

tt tst gupst t t stg sc, b t,t t pcu ts u t t ct sucs s ps-sb t utt stt, spc tt s ts sc bss supptm sm , cmptt, cus subt mts Ts mc, ct, cts t b cut b b t scu sgctc bckg t sut st gs t cut i mctcspst, suc s tt pst b t Kz gm, s ctbutmgt t t upsug t b sugc tug ts upu pc -g sm csgu tbs t t ps ts, utt gmt Kbu mg t pbm m gus wt ts pmss

t, t, bt cttsp t puc pst t css ag t scut qu t sts t tt cmmut tUt Stts

n t u ctqus, ccg, ps g tt t t ms pu-su b US pc agst sc 2001 it s t Pst obms ct tt,spt stg pssu mgg m us csttucs wsgt (mst

c s t s pt), s jct t pts tt cmptt bug ct stt hs m sttmt Mc 27, 2009, tmstts wt Pp ssu tt sm , cbts ts ct, bt t

g gs ct C, t pst s uc t cus cuttsm tt sm s ss ctg atug ssst tt t Ut Stts c cus g, m, t supt,smt t Q Pkst agst, t pt t tut t cut t utu, ts bjct t b pusu t st ccumscb s n t ccus c b m Pstobms c jct tu t b u M, s msttspc sttmt c cs tt mg wsgts stc cbbjcts u b pmtg m cpb, ccutb, ct gmt

agst tt ss t ag pp c tu uct, spcgg t scut, t mt tt suppt a, , pgcsg s-t ag scut cs tt c t cutsugc cuttsm gt t uc US ssstc s s up s t kbjcts tt ctbut t t umt g tg tsm cmp-s agst Pkst52

wt pct stt t, ts ppsts suggst tt t Ut Stts t bct stt bug agst; t cgz t b s ccpt-b ismst gup ctst t, mp, -Q, c ckg must

b tpt; t t agst t s ts t btt cus


40/114


Pkst, s sm sts t Ut Stts suggst T msttstt t m cpb, ccutb, ct gmt

agst tt ss t ag pp53 s mpct cs jct

cpus sttgs gc, us t tgt uptt b t ag gs u, cs put uttsm s sutt t ptc pbms Kbu

b su, t u b pu t ct s wt Pp tsp-t c tt t Ut Stts s cmmtt t bug ct mctcstt agst T u t sst ts bjct stct s t -mstt s cmmtt t pmtg cmptt gmt Kbu; sgstg ag t scut cs; bstg t gtmc t ag gm;stgtg pc c gc; tgtg ctcs puct; m-

bzg tt suppt cstuct stbtt ps t tpctts tt Pst obms sttg tg tsm agst (Pkst) c b mpmt tut t st ttmpt t t-bug [tt] t Busmstt sugt iq54 atug suc gumts b tt cut t US cmmtmt t bug ct ag stt, , tug tt pst tt stt bug tg -Q ct cmptg ptcgsut cmmg tt wsgt cctt t tt ggt mt ss b umts t c suc ssts

accg, t obm mstt su umbguus c t t st

pptut tt t sttgc bjct US pc agst s t tct m ag stt, tt cts mt ptcs c-t gmt psts t spts ts s tc csttutsmt tug sm k mctc mcsms Pusug ts g s smpt pt: t s csst bcus t b ttsmtgtg -Q ( t b), suctg pcu tbsm ag sct,cptg t b t ag gc, g b uttspst Kbuc agst , stt tt st bcm tt t t tt cmmut

dspt t mtts, umus p ps cuct b t US g-mt s s pt sttuts agst, suc s t as ut, scm tt ts s muc t cc t ag pp T t m sucpg, spc tt cuct 2006, suggst tt ags cs mctc stt t b t ub uu smp b c; st, ts s csst, t m ags, cmps t, mp, Pksts,

Js, is, iss, pssg pc mcc55 equmptt, t mctc spts t ag pp pss tms b ptcs s m, ps gts, u , gu cts,

gmt b t pp b t pc scut cmc


41/114


pspt atug ts sttuts b c b ismc cstts tag csttut t mptc cc t tm s pp pgcuct sc 2006, g bcus t ttg scut stut t

t cut t gg pssmsm but ts pspcts, mst agsst mg u m, b pc56 G ts tttus, tUt Stts su t mt tt cssus suppt ctg ct stt bs mctc pcps agst bcus, st mst, t ag pp t t , sc, sps gmt ttcts c pcs cuss pg c scut, g gc,cmc pptut, cs ms t bst ms tg tb sugc sg t pbm cct

M, s b 2 cts, m mctc stt agst c bst

scu t mutp bjcts tt t tt ct s sugt t pcutug t mt cmpg u sc 2001 at tm t pps tb pu cus but t t wst s gtg agst, t obmmstt cu btt t t stt smp b g t t tg g pusu b t Ut Stts scug suppt t bcus ts t supt cmp t t t tts

ObjecTives

Moddmoattat

Apaopoty

Md-fdamtattat

Atotaatat

Deeat al-Qaeda and other

extremist groups

Control national boundaries

Provide personal security

universally

Provide economic development

nationwide

Provide responsive governance

Control narcotics production

AlTernATives

Box 2

the WoRth oF DeMocRacy anD its alteRnatives

Key PlAusible iMPlAusible uncerTAin


42/114


Winning the WaR

by seeking claRityabout stRategy

Mtg ct gs s t cg g t agstT t cssts tg t sttg pusu b t Ut Stts t cctt sgct tt tt s ccu t t cut sc but 2006

atug t s usb t s s ug t Bus mstt, t s tuts tt t ss agst ccug ct s b umtu t sttgc gct atug ts cmpg s b g s tg , t pt agst s b p suc , g t

cmptg pts iq, t Ut Stts smp stt g t t cu agst t t t s css qu as am Mc Mu,t cm t Jt Cs St (JCS), c mtt t t hus amScs Cmmtt 2007, i iq, t must i agst,

t c57

T sp gt s US ug t t ccts stbs t ptc: tus , wsgt s spt ug $171 b ug gt s pts ptg t agst cmp t t $653 b spt ug

s s t suppt US cmmtmts iq T g pmtc sup-pt ug agst s s tt m t -t t mutcmpb cmmtt t iq58 T u t tt cmmut t mkg ts cmmtmts t agst ut cbt t cg atug wsgts pts supps ut b t bjct bug ct ag stt, t ctbuts qut mtc t tcm t k Cc 2002 , tt pgs tt smtgt t $40 b, but cmmtmts b c $25 b, ctusbusmts b cs t $15 b59 as m cs Kbu uubs, 60 pct ts uts ctu c t ag pp bcus t

csts , cug t bus sustg umus wst csutts

ChaPer 4


43/114


ug buucc, sut stggg 40 pct [bg] tut cuts cpt pts csutt ss60

agsts ss pt s s b ct t tp stgt ssctt t mss: s t s 2008, agst just but -t tUS tps pst iq, ut 2007 tt t st t smtg ss t t61 dspt t ct tt t mss agst s sst mp-ts cutsugc, t mb ucus ct cuttsm,t Ut Stts s b t cmmt tg t tp s c b ts ms -gtg mus i t qumts M 3-24,Counterinsurgency,62 stct pp, sm 650,000 m u ms u bqu t succss t mt mss agst Ts gu s cus t t tt scut c css, tt s, st t pc mt

cmpts g t tt ctbuts, s pppt at tkgt ccut t stct ptcuts t cut; t tu t s; US stgts cmmucts, tctcs, ttt mbt, p,t US tp stgt stc qu succss ps t sm bt-t t - t umb m css

T bt t p tg smbg suc tp s, cup t t st tst naos c t t ut-- pts tt csg bcmt m t pstC w , sut t Ut Stts ccptg -c ctbuts t t ag cmpg Ts ssstc, , s um

m t bgg b t t sm sz t cs p, t ptccts t mpmt, t ctu cmm ct ssct tt mss T u t tgt t c sz cct t bu upgus ag scut cs ptust cmpst sm t mp cts cbt ts cuts ut

But mst pbmtc s t US sttu spsbt t agpt t nao atug t ptcpt t eup s t agmss su b suc stgt, t m-2005 US ct tt

nao u ssum u spsbt mt pts, b t (tsc) ucmt t t sm 2,500 US cmbt tps mt tt, st utut , tspct, cst sgs tugut t g

agst ts gbs, t t ptt t t Ut Stts msut as, tus pg tm t t cts t pusu ut sttgssg t ptct t tsts amcs bsc i t cs Pkst,ts cct suppt t b ts css-b pts

agst t b sstc bt s uts agst, t sgt mts amc ptc t mt msss b tt -c t shuras cct tt succss qu tt t sugts utst t

Ut Stts, c pp t b usg t t t


44/114


T tt sttg tt t obm mstt s bgg t mp-mt t sg t pt agst t ss ts m t cgs, s ts wt Pp k ccs Ts pbms ct b

ss t, t , cs, t subjct t scusst CenCoM t wt hus wt s, t, s m sm t pcp cgs qu t t agst, tb b-tg t t pbmtc cct t t b ct m quts wg t , ts ctt, mps sg succssu ug

ag stt suct t mgz t b s t gz ppst mstc ptcs; t s t t psc mtg sugt ctg t sugc tgt, but m ucg t t t t cb mg b t ts mstc cmt

i t s ssum tt t g gs pusu b t Ut Stts m sb t cut cttt tust t gumt tus tt ppst b mpct ccpt b Pst obmt qust t ms css tscu ts ms bcms mmt t i g, ctc tsmts tt sttgc, pt, mstc s ( t t pgss utzgt t sctus Pkst) b css succss agst s tb z

sTrATegic chAnge

T tts tt css t t sttgc s s t ut ccmpsg t amc bjcts agst Ts cgs t bcus t pups t t t tps mps ut ttt tus s b cspcuus m b ts bsc

Staying to win. T st mst mptt justmt qu t t sttgc s c pubc ct b Pst obm t tt t Ut Sttsts t t agst but s tt t st t cut t g tm Bt cmpts ts ct sst a umstkb

cmmuct t US tt t sk ctcbt b cmmttg tcss sucs t t tsks umt css t um t ggsttgs cut pusu b us ctc cts s agst Tugutt , umus tb cs g s s s pc uts,uct but t t Ut Stts s t tmt t bg ts mtpts t succssu ccus, ctu t t ctc cpt mt gmt agst, c b u p t t t bsugc m p u tt wsgt mgt t t tb ct agst t utu, ts mptt sg csttucscut ck tc--t m, tct g t b ccs

supptg t gmt ts but usg t cs pt t t


45/114


ct bcus t uctt but wsgts tmt t mtt sugts s ct ppst

i t ct sc cs t agst s t t st suppt t ag gmt, t cts tmt, mst mptt, amcsst s t t succssu ccus must bcm ppt t Pstobms tgt ct tt tg -Q ts ts, cug tb, psts t g tt must b c cu t cm t btttm ut, s m tt [ts] s cus tt cu t b m just, sctgc tct t tsts pps us, m mssg s t sm: t uc p t m us csttucs s agst tsupptg t gmt t Ut Stts

w t u stgt US bjcts mms t pst s c c s tt t st agst t g tm, t t cu st cus tt s ug mstc csttucs u p- mt t as , cup t t s t pcpts t Ut Stts s ccupg p agst, pp t Pst obm t tck ts ssu m bqu b tg tt, w t agst t ct tt cut t ctt ts utu w agstt ct cmm m tt tts t Ut Stts, u s us, t pp agst Pkst su t mst tt s t tmsts63 wt t ss ts quct, t s

mpt tt t mstt quck c ts tt t st gg ssug ag scut t g tm bcus t s gt tt t tccmpsmt amc gs t t pcpt t agst s Sut as tt t Ut Stts cut u b t tsk stt bug s succssu cmpt

Bcus t ttt t mstts ps gub cs gt t tamc cmmtmt agst, Pst obm su t s msstg tt t Ut Stts m agst s g s s css

t c ts g sttgc gs s g s ts psc js t suppt ttcuts gtmt gmt hg s ts, , t t tst t bt t tc but t p ct i t cms ut wsgt g t c sucs, tp cmmtmts, pmtc ttt tt s s s stt, mut spsbt, cmptt ggbt t bcs gmt, tg tt suggsts ppt t,t ctc csttucs s cpt b css t t t b t ccus tt t s t t supptg t tu b t sgs, tb mkg naos stugg gst t sugc t


46/114


Ts t s ggts t gs mg sttgc gs umtg butt pssbts ptu t s csg tt t t pstsm sttmt s mstts wt Pp cts s sst,

ts gt t b t sttg ts gt t b ss tt ts s t pptut64 empg t p tt K Ppp c c t opus ct, suc stmts, tt cus up mpg t sttgcmt, up ctbutg t ts tt bcus t suggstt mptt stks tt t cut spst Kbu s uk t bpmt , c, ut ug suppt ts s, t s gtgtt t obm mstt s t ccpt t cmmt b stutt t sg t t ags tt t [US] mt cmmtmt s t p-65bcus suc mssg u t ct spug t sugtst utst t tt ct cugg bsts t psst t

pg mbc

Cg t US tmt t st agst t g tm tugs s s s66 s t cgg t ccuus t cuts usgbs s Bcus i, i, jkst, Uzbkst, russ tsts agst tt pps t t Pkst s pmut uc, t t mmz t cts mgt cmptt s t su tt Kbums umt g s--s ts k ug tts ambss K iut ambss Jms dbbs gu tt t t pucts utcm s t stbs agst s pmt ut stt tug

mutt cc tt stbss pcps guts [suc ] g-tmsttus67 w ts pps su ubt b p cu, t s uk tb ut tm s bcus t sttgc tsts t g cts

agst t t mmt cut cmptt G Kbus t kss t stc pct ts gbs, spc ismb, t c csstt s-tst gs, g-tm US psc t agst bb t ssu ts utt t t g gbs m mg agptcs t t m scug ptc tgs t s

T stg amc cmmtmt t, mt , agsts t ussb nt u suc ct b css t suc-cssu cstuct ts p cut st b tt s , t s sspsb pmt tu t t s-c Gt Gm s t b ot sts sugt t t ts pspct g cmptt bppsg tt wsgt t m gtc t iPkst sput Ksm68 Ts suggsts b but mpctc bcus s t st t pst st s but ttsts, ts qu b cut t s tug t tt; utm, t Ksm mbg s USptc cpt cu b p tt t suts t s; ,


47/114


succssu sut t tct Ksm s uk t bt i Pkst s agst

Ptg agst m bcmg pgu ts g gbs s,t, btt su b ct ppct US sucs c tug g-tm cmmtmt b wsgt t Kbu as mtt ct, tg uuc Pksts cts t ctu ts cut suppt t b sttgm t scug uc t ts st gb bt pt ss s--s im t -c amc tmt t su agsuccss b g t gst t sugc stg t tcut t scu utu wt s css, t, s t t sttgct mp t, s m eup t Ut Stts b tb t cs, but t tt s cct t t st u

agst t mmt t st, t pps s t obm mstt, t,bs ts t b t cs

i t t cmmuct suc sut cb, St Jsp i lbm(i-C) s ct c bt s pct t Kbu tt u cupct scut guts sm k stg US mt psc t tcut T obm mstt u t mk ts ts bcus,s lbm cct put t, tg put t tt gus uctttt cuss bt ags t gbs t g t bts bcus t sbut t pp t t amc gs t bs t g,

m t g-tm amc scut cmmtmt t agst69

T s m s Pst obm t uquc m t US cm-mtmt t g t agst m ptctg ttcut t g tm: t ag pp tust wsgt sc 2001t just tt agst s mps cut cs, t s ktt but t uts : c, mmst, pt, s it tmt t St s 1979, agst bcm t cuc stu-mt tt b wsgt t umb t Km, mz t r am,

cct t g t C w dspt t ctbuts t ts pcamc ct, t pp agst sutb tscc Ts gct , utut tgc s, t Sptmb 11, 2001,but spt t bst tts t Bus mstt, t Ut Stts s tt m g ts cmmtmt t ssst t ags zg t gs m pspt it s tm t Ut Stts t p ts bts t

agst B mkg ub pg t Kbu, wsgt c t tag pp but s ctbut t stgtg ts scut

Ts tt cst s just s mptt as Pst obm s gu cct

umus ccss, agst ist ct t t gb tsm


48/114


atug agst s g sctu -Q, t u quck bcm g t b t tu t p t c t amc t tcmt ts mt ts Ccus cmg amc s-

s ts tt u, t, t b stmt ptctg ts m, t u s tmus pscgc b t c ismsts tt ttg t Ut Stts o qu sgcc s t ct ttamc succss agst stgts wsgts Sut as mg: t u Pksts stugg gst tmsm, cct t ggtsmt USi ts, pst t Ut Stts b mgg t mg Ct Sut as t t ptt tt s jutg bt gs t s

Altering command and control. T sc mptt cg t t sttgc

tt t obm mstt must sp pts t t cmm ct(C2) ct pts agst T ct wt Pp ckgs tspbm g tms, but s t bt Bss t cg mpgtgc ct t t Ut Stts, c ct b scuss , tt t cut C2 gmts, t pppt , s css tt s

bg t, t u t Ut Stts t ps t p- ut cmm css t succss t cut mss s t b ct Sct 2006, t Cmb cs Cmmagst (CC-a) -

qus ct ts pts t nao, t msss spsbts pctctms b mg t Cmm, CenCoM; t Supm aCmm, eup (SaCeUr); t Cmm, US Spc optsCmm (SoCoM); t t mt t US dptmt Stt T CenCoMcmm, s sttc b t gg mt pts iq, t-ss ps (u oe) k US -gtg cmpts ctc tgc,suc, cssc (iSr) ssts t iSa; SaCeUr ss t naocmpts tt c, cug US mts spcc ct t iSa;SoCoM cts k US uts t USct cuttsm

mss, c s stctt st ccptu tug t pctcm iSast-bug pts agst; , , t Stt dptmt c-ts t t ct mmbs t cutctcs mss

atug u sttuts cbt s qu, CenCoM ts spsb-t ctc tsks suc s iSr; gstcs mc suppt; sg agstsscut cs; spc pts, cutctcs, g ggmt (mstmptt t Pkst) tug nao, b mpct SaCeUr, sspsbt t t mss agst o -t- bss, t bt CenCoM SoCoM m b g m bcus t bt

US cmms bcus t tu SoCoMs ctts ms, t st


49/114


t, g s ct i pctc, , t sczt bt ts t cmms s m But t s t sm bt CenCoM,

c ps ctc ssts, nao, c ss pts s t g-

st tp ctbut, tt s tu ut t b bt sgct pbmtcSaCeUrs us spsbts, but tut t pppt cspg ps sucs, um t pcp ut cmm; t s t m tsp bt nao CenCoM, tug bt p t cct agst, but t bsc sg tt cmm

t u quts ct cmps utt allcsptg t t cut mks t pbms ps b mutp msss cmptg cs cmm g tctb

G ts t t ut cmm t sc ccuc sc

vtm tugtu ss s ug wsgt t g t t agmss u t uspcs t US eup Cmm (USeUCoM), tg m sucg t tg t cmbt u b u tgt unao70 a tt sut pps b ambss Jms dbbs, mUS spc agst, cts mkg t CenCoM cmmt supm cmmagst, c cpct u ptct t naos sct g, tus g SaCeUr t cus t eup,

c ms mptt bgt 71 wc sut t obmmstt pts t m b g ss t suppt t sc s gs t s t um t pspct sustg ctu eup ctbu-

ts t agstt g tsk tzg g- C2 gmts agst ct b put g tut ut gs t t mss

rctg t g- C2 pbms agst s t b cmpmt bstuctug t utt t pts bg cuct t gcmms, rC-e rC-S, c t m t schwerpunkt t b -sugc atug t Ut Stts s C, t Ut Kgm,dmk, t nts t p cmbt cs ts t cmms, ts csg bus tt ts cs t suct t mss

pp g cus cutsugc stugg rcgzg t tt pb-m, Sct ds rbt M Gts t ct tt mst t eupcs, nao cs, t t cutsugc; t t tu Gp Csqut, pss s tt nao p cs tt t pp t, mttg tt im sm mt cstt t k t cutsugc pts72

atug t s pssb tt t eup cmpts p rC-S rC-e b p sm pc t jb, t g mss s tssst bb b t ck u nao ct cutsugc tt c b

um mpmt tugut ts t zs M, t cut cmm


50/114


gmts, t Ut Stts s rC-e C, Gt Bt, t nts tt sp rC-S, s s uk t su t t t b ts s, ptcu t sut t sugc s t stgst

bcus suc mtts; mutp cmm cs; cs cut-sugc ct, cmbt tctcs, -gtg cmptc csp t pt ct sps t t g tt T sut t ts pbm cssts t jctg t s but t tgtg tm m tgt t subtcmm tt us rC-e rC-S u ct US mt sp

Ts cmm must b p t t cmbt cpbts css tt t b, sgg ts m iq s s qu T s tsu b cug t ctbut m mt cs, tut ptstcts, tt s pssb as tgs st, nao pmc ts s

b sm atug t eup s sm tps t t agmss, uts t Bts, Gm, C, it, dutc, c, Psctgts, mst t ctbuts tus b m tk s, mg t g ctbuts, t Gm it uts sstptcptg mj cmbt pts M, t tp ctbuts

agst b muscu pt t tt mt cpbtspssss b ts stts; csqut, t s t mk t gumt tt cmpt-g cmmtmts s pt tm m suppg tps g tutk cmbt pts agst i mst stcs, t s st t ck ct but t ptc bjcts t , t sg mstc ppst

t t ag mss, t sgmts but sttg tctcs t tc tt t t eup pts ub t mk t mgu mtctbuts css ct

Bcus t s uk t eup s b b t summ t ptc t mk t tp ctbuts css t t t b tm s,

wsgt s tt but t tk spsbt pg ts csts Mkg mmst ssumpts but t umb ag nt

am ctgts k t bcm b, t Ut Stts su p

sgct cs ts cmbt cpbts agst, ptg u sg US t-st c t t u utt t us ts ccg t atug suc sst US ct u t b sb, tksss t cut ct c agst mk suc c suttb css T subt cmm tt u u rC-e rC-S u US ct su m stg ut t b sugcs b t bugt u ct; t c nao g, but t must b u-g US cmm

T C2 mpmt tt t obm mstt su mpmt s su-

g btt tgt bt c cstuct ctts mt pts


51/114


mg t c pmt ctts tmss T s ubt tt ttt cmmut s pu bs s cstuct ssstc t

agst sc 2001, but ts ts b gmt, smtms upct,

t t subt t u sttg Mst t pmt cttsccug tus mtz u t gs t g mt p-c cstuct tms (Prs) g gmt gzts (nGos)

Ts s puc t sts pbms st, t s t mpmt pmtpjcts ccg t pc t t s t sut stustmts as a a J summz t, cmptg Pr nGo ctts t sut cc tt u ct cts , sc tt [s pbbct] tt c c g t, t t cuts bug tscs t sm , sm g73

Sc, pmt ctts t b tgt t cutsugc p-g, spc uts t US rC-e as sut, Prs nGos st cstuct ctts m t s gs t cut, tus gctgcmpt t ctg cmc pptuts pcs ts s suc stmts cu mk t c sgg ppu suppt mt sugc as Tms Js s t, stcts pcs suc shm, ouzg, Zb, Pktk, wk lg sst zs ttu cc bttg ctu stuctus pqust tcutsugc74

T, pps mst csqut, t ctc mss cmc pmt cstuct ctts cut ccug agst s b gs,t tug Prs nGos, t tt gmt psc, , c-squt, t puc css t stt ptt stt gtmcSuc pmt s b m b s but cupt t t

ag gmt, but t s t mst cs ct stcg t sttm ts pput t tm succss cutsugc cmpg psumt csg t suppt t gtmt gs u as J

ssb ccu:

dpmt ps scut stbt [] t s pt tsttg, pt [t] cstuct stt-bug agst i pg cuts [ ] pst-cct stut[s], t cts cm t tgs h, t ps t ctt t stts mt t ots, ts uct, tst, s mbt upcts ctu smtms k[s] t css-pupss75

T mst mptt cg m C2 pspct, t, s t tgt p-

mt ctts t cutsugc pts m ct ptcu


52/114


t ct suc tgt t csg t psc t gtmc tag stt nao tk t st stps ts ct s t s 2006 tt ug ts cmps sttg agst ts mp-

mt s g supc as pt ts t, iSa ct put tsk tsg cstuct stbzt atug ts m t st sgt sm k mpmt, t cu ct b tg ctg ts pst cs tspt bt cutsugc pts cstuct Ts ptt,tug b nao, s puc upuct buct tt st s t mss, tus umg t g stt-bug tpsCsqut, t puts pst s t b usu, t must b stgtcsb u tgt t t cutsugc pts s bt u quts supptg t tt cmm T cs cutpt

t t gmt agst t s t b tz t t bjct

ctg sucs t t sugc-st sut st gs Tsgmt t , cus, t b sb cpt t ctt t cutsugc sttg ts t s, c b scuss t tsubsct T bttm , cs, s tt pmt cstuct c m cutsugc pts, bt su t t ctu tg t b76

w tgt cutsugc pts cstuct ts s tusmptt, btt ct mg t us pmt ctts u

agst s s css Bcus t cut cstuct tts

suppt pm b t t pgms, ptg pt , t, ptg pcp t t st cpts t tt ct tt gmt agst, ts ts t cctz b upct

stuss at tm sucs t pmum, t t c um spt pmt ct b stt T mst ct spc ppt b t Ut nts, K e, t ng pmt, sb spcc tsk t bgg t t mutus pmt cttsccug agst , ptcu, mpg t ct bt tUt nts assstc Mss t agst nao, iSa, US ct-

ts t t cut ns cmg ut Kbu suggsts tt, tus t st,e s t succ s mss it s t c t ts s bcus cksqut st sucs t tsk i s t, ts cu s t b ct, c g, s succss b ctgt t smp s bt t s tu cuts t Prs nGos but s, mst mptt, sps sttut ts t t tt cmm agst wtutts tsps, t cut pbms ssct t t sjuctu btpmt ctts cutsugc sttg psst t t tmt t mss T obm mstts cs t cug t sct g t Ut nts t ppt US pmt Pt w Gbt s es put s


53/114


cm cct s s t ps mptt amc psc t tgst t Ut nts assstc Mss t agst

Reorienting the counterinsurgency campaign. T t mptt cg t tsttgc tt t obm mstt must ct s t tt tgg cutsugc cmpg t cus t smp, t c, bjcts ptctg cs stg t m; ptctg cs b ccptg sks css t t st ct cs; ptctg cs b usg t pssb tms mmum t t mmum c T mstts wt Pptku mks ts bjct ts t cs tt u cut-sugcsttg must tgt pput scut t bug ct c gc cmc pmt w stbs t scut t p spc tm stbzt cstuct ctts77

T ptct t pput must c g tk ct stg t cuct ct mt pts agst T US ams cutsugcmu, M 3-24, cts tt t mss b pscut ct ts it s st m c t Ut Stts sstmtc cuct cutsugcpts agst m t 2003 ut 2005 at 2005, t US mtsp agst t bck t css ktc ppc t cu-tsugc, c t us sup p t ttck sugt gups tkpt ptctg t pput mg m t pt wt ts

g tgs g tms m ks, t st just s muc t m

tms ppu suppt t cts gst t b, tks t tu css ct mg puc b ts sttg as sut, t b

b t ps t ks m t csg sct ppuc stt t US mt s b t st tm78

T ctuc suc ttt-ct cutsugc sttg ctb-ut utmt t t t t Ut Stts agst bcus t pt t t t pput cs suppt t b upsg it st s t gtspc b tcgc sup ctt t sttgc

g cutsugc cmpg s t t cmps psc stuct t sugts t st stc, but t spg t ptc gm suctt t pp, mg m t sugc pts, gu st t tst t stt m t sstc Stgtg ts mc qus ttt pput b cc tt t gmt t p t, st mst, t ps scut, m tt c hbbs c t m m su t lt t t gmt s s c b t ps ct gc (mg t psc t sp justc), sps gmt (tt s, u tt sm cpts cst mbs bg ts bt us u t us s), mm


54/114


pmt (c must cu t bt qut sustc t supsc su tgt t sm pptuts t btt s stt )

Ts ttbuts g gmt ptcu sst agst bcust tts t t s t cmm k t smp m t sugcbut s m c pts suc s ug gs, cms, s, mts, tb g p bks, ptt gmt cs w t zs ct mt pts gst t b t ts st, t t suts tt t stg g b b t pput t t gmt ts bt t su ps scutt st tsk gtmt sttsp ut tsmut t tgsm ct qu t Kbu t ct i t Ut Stts, t, s t t gst t b, tmust mk s ts pm busss t ps t wm M s

cct t s um scut79 tt qus, s Gs ds ts,sg t cut t csg c80 i t US cutsugcsttg c st ts mpss m pm kg t sugts t ptctg tpput, t sc mum t c t b ts pgssbcm sptb w tt utcm bts, t sugc t st b uc t -- pbm tt c b ct b c pc t cmt gcs

m t 2003 tug 2005, t Ut Stts pscut cutsugc p-ts agst ct ts optg u u c-mt

sp cct t t US mbss Kbu, ambss Zm Kz lutt G d w B, cmm CC-a, mpmt cmp-s cutsugc sttg tt cmb ttsm t-sugcpts, t tg ag scut cs, t cstuct gc, g ggmt tug sp ppc tt m-psz t ptct t ag pput b s T sttg sp s mt t tt s uqu Bs: sttutzg tsccpt pts, tuct, tut uttt pusUS mpss cuttsm, pscut m tug ktc ttcks,

tgt cutsugc sttg tt t tgt mutp ptc,mt, pmt, mt pts t sc ptctg tag pp81 Ts t, c ccu g b t cut US amcutsugc mu s s t cpt sm ppc, p sps Csqut, tug t b sugts s cpg bckm Pkst t agst ug ts p, t ptc mt t

agst s qut sptb t t pts82

at 2005, , tts t t c mt cmm cs agst upu tct t css t psc spt t US c

mt sp Kbu t t cmps cutsugc


55/114


sttg t m tt scut tsks Ts utut ccs cmp-mt b t tt cmmuts pz pmt ts cut t gg ag stmt t t Kz gmts cmptc,

cupt, , m mptt, ts ptsm g t ptc pptmts tt pc stct s tugut agst ic, Kzs csst ppt tust gts m tbs t ts psts s , tst pt, b s t su cs spsss t st-tm cutt-sm cutsugc s; but t t t puc tct sg t sct s tt t b t pt t pt sugc

at tm Pkst s tt m us b t US cst ts t cmm ag pts t nao pucmt tt

s s t pu t amcs t m t g, t justg tusg t b t t c Pksts tsts Kbutpssus t t t iq ut pt t ag tt m bg -c t t tps qu t pscut succssu t sg sugc tt cut T sm US c s agst, utcm qu tt bus iq s s t pgss gct ts wsgt,tus puc stut t tps csg t m bs pcs

t sugc ts s gg tst t s bg t m bs m Pkst t tt bg tg ts p t, but tcus, t Gz-mt gs agst t st tbs t

mgz b t tt stbut p

Ct b ts cgs m gt mttspm stg tpsUS sp st cutsugc sttg m ts mp-tsmpss pput ptct t t p-2003 m ct pt ktc ttcks t cuct t st stcs ptg t tc-gc pcc US p Ts stks ubt tctcsttg stc; t puc mptt cuttsm ks m stcs pt sm bs ct tps m bg m b

g umbs b ttcks as sut, t bs su t cut t ct cs, but ts p- suppss ttcks spuc cs c csuts tt ut t t pput m t sugc m Ts gt, tu, puc msttg ktc stks t ct mg, tus usg cus cctt s t mtstsz sugc ctg t ct t

G ts mss, t ctc tsk t t sttgc s t st t ttcus b t sctg ccs c t pgss ss ppu suppt t cutsugc rC-e rC-S; g t tt b mpmtg

, tug t tt, cutsugc sttg ct g


56/114


um scut; stbz t stut ts k tts g ug t m cts t t ptc cmc s t b utk tt bg pcss ucg t tb utmt mgz t b

a succssu t g ts s u ct st t st ctg bsstst rahbari shura t gc cmmtt s t ssm t g bss suppt mg t tbs g s it u pmtts t ctg ctc cts t s st t gc t t stt s tct bgs t pp m succssu, s s cmmtt t bg scc

t t cut t g u, bgs t t t sucs css tscu t ts Ts pmts u s um t pptustcsstc mst b t sc ctg ps scb bt lumpengts csttut t t--bbcus t psc ctstt-suppt cmc pptuts, cup t m sps c-

t c gc, u b m ttct t ts msss t t t rahbarishura cu ctst

a tt US cutsugc sttg s pmugt tnao s t gtg zst mpsz t ps pput scut stu, cmb t cct stmts pmt t ctct ccs gc, s t Ut Stts t ag gmtt bst cc t g t b sugc t ts pt tm, t mtt pss gus, but t sumutb, cg Ts c sttgc tt s bs pct t pms tt t stut

agst s gt pus, t s b ms ccus st , c,c b t t Ut Stts s g t mk t sttgc tts tt b t subjct scuss tus : cmmt ts t ct agsttug t pppt cmmtmt sucs tmt t st gg t g u; tsm t bttg C2 stuctus t mutp s t scummum bts m t sucs cmmtt; cs t t tt t cutsugc mss m t cut cct mpss ktcks, t sc tctc cts t b, t t pmc puscc t pg pput scut t ags83

Cgg amc tus agst s, t, mt pssb tss tt t suct ppct bg t, t b smp t ct agst atug t mut zus cg t t

ag gmt t c umus suppts rC-e rC-S, t b ct jct t ug gmt t s g s t t-t ct s pst t t cut i ct, t s m ccut t scb tpst stut s ub stmt t gmt s ub t tt b t st sutts tt s suppt t bpp ub t scu ct t stt b c M, t b

sugc s uubt sus, cu gt s t cut b pppt


57/114


cgs t ct sps, t s stpttg cms gztssuc s t itt Cuc Scut dpmt ttstgmkb cctt ggpc mt sugc naos bst t-

gc suggsts ts cm s cbt b US i cstt b ct s ssss t t stct agst, t sugtsmt ss t 15 pct t stcts t cut Ts stcts jugt cmpss but 20 pct t cuts tt cmpb pctg ts pput84

atug gmt ct t m agst s b ms b-sut, g tt p s cs b tb cs, g s, pt

s sgct ct stcts utt s ctst bt tgmt t b sm ts, t mptt ct s tt t ag

stt cts t mjt t stcts csttutg t cut t buk ts pput T ctc mpct s tt t b sugc s mptct t upt: t s mt spc tms t ts gc csuppt ctt sm pt t cuts tt, , ccg, tmt sucs t cckmt t t t b t mt gst tsz t cut t g gst tcgc spstct s b tp ct css t m t b su, t b ct mts bgu t mk ppc s uts t sut, spc t st, pmtug t--u s, st ttcks, suc bmbgs, t tts mps ps cs atug ts ps ptg s ct

ms pppt ct sps, t s mptt t t ct t sz t b cts ccu t t s c t tu j sgctsuppt ctu ct

ut, naos stugg gst t b, t ct t Ut Stts ptcu t ccups agst s ccups, cpt b sm pt t ppuc tt tt s b suspcus t pscallgs t t cut wt t cpt pmt t Gztbs ts, p succ mst t sstc bcus

t p cstsm, t s t ps tt sc stuctus, ttmt t pt t sc cg t b cm tb s sut wst psc agst, mst t sc mts t tcts psc t t cut s t ccupt cs t tstbt e ts du tbs suc s t az, isqz, nz, smmbs t t t sugc, pps t ct bcus t b ss t t ag stugg p Csqut, t sstnao cs, g tm s t ptcts t Kz gm t Ppzdu c m c t gmt s ts suppt, t bcus -tst cutu tt pcptt b t cts psc


58/114


Ct, t pu psts agst pps wst mtcs bt gc ptc ss: ts cu Gubu hkmt s hzb ism Gubu (hiG), a-u-hq s hzb ism Ks

(hiK), Ju hqq s hqq tk, t ag b shura t -c ts, t mts osm B ls itt ismct agst But t tgsm ts cts s t b um-t cs b cmptg ptc tsts t t t agstt t wst wt s mst mptt, cs, s tt t ag pp t ts psts s pstg t tu tsts, cpt ctspcc stcts t sut st gs t cut T cm cb Gs ds, tt t psc g tps [ agst] s tmst mptt mt g t sugc t b,85 must ccg b

jug s t bst tut g mt psc s uubt pcptt

gus sstc ts s pput b t mst cst u Pstus,but t css t s smp k bt J tsm,86 t stt tt justs t sp t g cs m agst s thesutt gg t sugc i ct, t t g tt g cs cbtt sugc, t s m b t pttu as nt C ck J a ng summz t:

ags t cmmtt pbs, bsss t g ut t c-t, s t t Bts t Sts Mst ags spt t t b c m t gs, but t st bg ps

cs t t b t t s b c T sct ust t ct s t p t bsc scs t ags t t t wst psc; t ustt t

wst cmptc87

Ts cts mp tt nao s t m us tuss tpst t t b s s smtms m c cmpss bt tsz agst t sz iq T umbs amc, , ccsuts, t, c ts t ccts s g smmtc, t iq bg

m t t agst b mst msus wt s , t, agst s t psstt psc sm umb tps s sguscpb ptctg t pput ct ctc s s tt tsbtts c tu gst t sugc, s t t t, t t

, t mjt t ag pput s t pps t t wst mtpsc t cutt sk t succss tt ugt t ccu m tbtt ts cs as su t su ags s mstt, tt pput s t tt s umttg s t smp psu bg b t pcu it s tt t us t Kz

gmt b mst gtg i t s sg ct ccutg


59/114


t gt t sugc, t s t t psc g tps but t tus gc ssct t t psc hm Kz Kz s bub t p ags t ps scut mp cmc

cts, spt t st sucs bg pu t agst Ts sucs c t t ps t m, gg pcpts cuptsuug Kzs csst ts, cup t t tc bs ct s kpptmts, cst u Pstus t sut st, -sps t ct utt, t sst t gmt Kbu b supptgt b sugc

T g s s tt spt ts mutp us, t mst ct pg agst st ss stg, bt cg, ppu suppt Kz twst mt psc t cut its cuct agsts

tt-u pcs b t ag Ct Sc-ecmc op rsc(aSCor) t Bts Bcstg Cpt, aBC ns, ard, ic, dcmb 2008Ju 2009 ct tt 52 pct t ags p st b- tt Pst Kz s g g-t-ct jb, but ts umbs pst p suppt cmp t 63 pct t ts 2007 83 pct 2005 Sm, 63 pct suppt t psc US cs t cut, gu tt s pp m 71 pct 2007 78 pct 2006; 59 pcts suppt t psc naoiSa cs, gu tt s ks ppm 67 pct 2007 78 pct 2006 atug t g suppt t g mt psc sms pm b g t t ct mg

cus b ct mt ptst sm 77 pct ts p gc csuts uccptbt ag pubc, b mg mg 82 pct t 4 pct, s st muc pps t t b, g tm s tcuts bggst tt88

wt ts t, t, suggst t qust g tps agsts t tt t su , but tt t must succ st d Cg,t BBCs t ptc sc, summzg t suts t tst ps suc-cct ccu tt t pctts t ag pp ct t

spptmt tt t cgs p t mtz T tpp, ccu, t ss ct but t But t bsut ct pt t t t t tu t s t b89

e t Ut Stts s tg gt t t t s, t agst t b 2009 2010 2011, but u t p-ppt ss t cgs ps b t sugc t gg css stt gtmc cu p t cs t wst tsug ts tm90 Ts tt u t mst ts tug mt ssbut st tug t pgss ss p mg ags but t bts

g tps t cut , m t, cs ss suppt t


60/114


mss t Ut Stts nt t ag t amc pp t cmg t wst cs m agst, tug sm amcts eup pubcs m b g suc umt T t

s, t, t ct t cs pptut t tu tgs u agst t btt T - pp tt cut pgss bg stc but t sucs b tt tsk ct c tcus t wst, ct agst ct b c b, s ck Kgpt put t, g succss t b t k c ccmps t tt k puttg t91

OPerATiOnAl chAnge

w cgs t t sttgc spsb succss agst, tt

bjct b z t t g tt t sttgc- tts ct cmps tsmt t t pt T ptcgt tt s c t gtst pubc ttt ts ctt s t mucscuss sug amc tps t agst Bcus t succss ccugt t cmpb t iq, m bss sm t b tt sp csgt umb cmbt tps agst ct pct t ccmps-mts tss iq

it s mptt t gu gst t tmptt cg c cmpss btt t s Uk agst, t st mts t iq sugc

sst t t pput s b t supps gtg; ts pt pm ub smub s; t uct m gtt ptc spstct pput; t t t tgt sctcmptts, cs t m, ppsg tb cs t t ctcs t g Ts cctt ccumstcs pmtt t Ut Stts tpt t t stmt tt t iq Su tbs t t -Q iq bcus t s gus gztb sstm tt subt t t ms Sm husss gm US cmts cup t ptct css t tu ts sc mts gst t tu ut

t b t cmm s tb t t cus ts tt cut

T stut agst s csb t T b t stgt( t s) pmrom t c du Gz tbs t sut st; t sugc s mst t u pm tt mts t msps pput psc spcs; t bs

reconciling with the taliban? toward an alternative grand strategy in afghanistan

Documents