Recreation Economic Studies of Lake Mead & the Grand Canyon of the Colorado

John DuffieldChris NeherDavid PattersonUniversity of Montana

Lake Mead SymposiumMarch 5-6, 2012Las Vegas, NV

Introduction NPS Objectives Phase II Findings and Data Gaps 2012-2013 Survey Modeling Visitation and Water Levels

Outline

Develop Comprehensive values for NPS resources in the Colorado River Watershed (CRW)

Estimate NPS values as a function of water allocations.

Integrated economic-hydrologic tools for NPS to fully participate in CRW water policy.

Overall Project Objectives

Ecosystem Services

Management- Conservation

- Use & enjoyment

VisitorUse

NonuseValues

EconomicImpact

Benefit-Cost

Linkages between CRW Recreation Resources and the

Economy

Phase I. White paper.Phase II. Review & synthesis existing

studies and data sets, identify data gaps.Phase III. Original research in two areas:

direct use-regional economics, nonuse values.

Phase IV. Integrate economics & hydrology, application to water allocation policies, user friendly model, publications.

Organization of Study

Market and nonmarket values Direct use values

- consumptive (hunting, fishing…)- nonconsumptive (boating, scenic..)

Nonuse values: existence & bequest Two accounting frameworks: social benefit-

cost, regional economics

Types of NPS Resource Values

Colorado River Basin Park Unit Water-based Visitation

Lake Mead NRA74%

Glen Canyon NRA18%

Grand Canyon NP0%

Dinosaur NM0%

Canyonlands NP0%

Curecanti NRA8%

Summary of Existing Literature on Visitor Expenditures and Regional Economic Impacts

Glen Canyon Environmental Studies, began 1982

Bishop et al. 1987 – direct use in Grand Canyon river corridor

Operation of Glen Canyon Dam EIS, began 1989

Welsh et al. 1995 – nonuse values in river corridor

EIS 1995, Record of Decision 1996

Key Previous Research on Water-related CRW NPS Resources

Estimates of Colorado River Unit Direct Recreational Values

Study Description NEV Estimate NEV Estimate(2005 $ per visit)

Bishop et al. (1987)

Study of values of Grand Canyon - float boaters (CVM)

$236-$1,653 per trip depending on river flow

level (1985$)

$430 - $3,000

Hammer (2001)

Study of Grand Canyon – Floaters (TCM)

$134 per trip (private) $314 per trip (commercial)

$157 (private)$368 (comm.)

Martin (1982) Study of Lake Mead - Fishing Values (TCM)

$44.63 to $61.44 per angler day (1978-9$)

$643 - $887

Douglas and Johnson (2004)

Travel Cost study of Lake Powell – Recreationists (TCM)

$70.84 - $159.35 per visit consumer

surplus (1997 $)

$86 - $194

Duffield & Neher (1999)a

Visitor survey of Glen Canyon NRA and Grand Canyon NP Visitors. (CVM)

Glen Canyon NRA - $384 per party trip

Grand Canyon NP - $319 per party trip (1988$)

Glen Canyon $109Grand Canyon

$142

Douglas and Harpman (2004)

Survey of Glen Canyon - improved trip quality scenarios (angler harvest, water quality)

$8.63 to $38.92 per visitb (1997 $)

$11 - $47

Bishop (1997) Relationship Between NEV and Flow Levels on Grand Canyon Float

Visitor Survey-Based Colorado R. Unit Expenditure Data

Park Unit Studies Expenditure Estimates (study year $)

Expenditure Estimates (2005

$ per visit)

Glen Canyon NRA

Douglas and Harpman (1994) $61 - $187 per person (1985) $111 - $340

Douglas and Johnson (2004) $119.77 per person (1997) $146

Duffield and Neher (1998) $202 per party day (1998) $187

Lake Mead NRA

Borden et al. (2003) $59.02 per person day (2003) $174

Martin et al. 1982 $43.00 per angler $122

Grand Canyon NP

MGM2, Visitor Services Project $1,388 per visit (2003) $1,471

Arizona Hospitality Study $1,131 per party (2005) $333

Harpman (1995) $215-$510 per person (1995) $275 - $652

Douglas and Harpman (1994) $517 - $1427 per person (1985) $941 - $2,597

Duffield and Neher (1998) $198 per party day (1998) $197

Hjerpe & Kim (2007) $680-$1,001 per person (2001) $750-$1.104

Available Data for Net Economic Value Analysis: Percent of Water-based Recreation

Insufficient Information

82%

Adequate Information

18%Partial

Information0%

Is Sufficient Information Available Now to Conduct Economic Analysis?

Park Unit Produce Regional Economic Impacts for Water-based Visitation?

Estimate Marginal Impacts of Water level on Regional Economics?

Produce Direct Use Total Value Estimates for Water-based Visitation?

Estimate Marginal Impacts of Water level on NEV?

Estimated Passive Use Values?

Glen Canyon NRA Lake Powell

YES YES YES PARTIAL NO

Colo. River (Glen-Lee’s) DATED DATED DATED DATED NO

Lake Mead NRA Lake Mead

NO NO NO NO NO

Lake Mojave YES YES NO NO NO

Curecanti NRA NO NO NO NO NO

Grand Canyon NP Grand Canyon Float

DATED DATED DATED / UNCERTAIN

PARTIAL/ DATED

DATED

Dinosaur NM Yampa & Green River

NO NO NO NO NO

Canyonlands NP Cataract Canyon

NO NO NO NO NO

Population to be Surveyed

Survey Question Valuation Methods

Proposed Sample Size (contacts)

Grand Canyon Whitewater Boaters

CV, Conjoint 1,800

Anglers (Lee’s to GC Dam) CV, Conjoint 400Anglers (Badger to Lee’s) CV, Conjoint 70Lake Mead CV, Conjoint. RUM 1,000Lake Powell CV, Conjoint, RUM 1,000Passive Household Survey CV, Conjoint 3,750

Planned Colorado River Survey

Additional Analysis Using Existing Data

Lake Mead Elevation: Interim Surplus Criteria Alternatives. (Source, Wheeler et al. 2002)

8,000

,000

10,00

0,000

12,00

0,000

14,00

0,000

16,00

0,000

18,00

0,000

20,00

0,000

22,00

0,000

24,00

0,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Lake Powell Plot of Seasonal Visitation by

Average Season Water Volume

Average Seasonal Lake Powell Water Volume

Tota

l Sea

sona

l Rec

reat

iona

l Vis

itat

ion

Winter Months

Fall and Spring Months

Summer Months

Dependent variable: Monthly visitation Explanatory variables: Month indicator

variables, average lake volume, interaction terms for summer and shoulder season months and volume VOLUME 0.00104 t=2.50 SHOULDER * VOLUME 0.00364 t=5.90 SUMMER * VOLUME0.00859 t=13.03 R-Square 0.987 N=132

Lake Powell Visitation-Water Volume Model: 1996-2006

Plot of Wahweap Marina Annual Receipts and Average Lake Powell Levels.

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

50000000

55000000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Annual Data 1995-2005

Wah

wea

p M

arin

a R

ecei

pts

5000000

7000000

9000000

11000000

13000000

15000000

17000000

19000000

21000000

23000000

Ave

rage

Lak

e P

owel

l Vol

ume

Wahweap Lake Powell

Lake Mead Visitation-Volume Model: Monthly Data, 1996-2011

Multiple R

0.815

R Square

0.664 Adjusted R Square

0.659

Observations 192

 Coefficient

s Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 266,814 22,293 11.97 0.00000

Volume 0.00918 0.00116 7.90 0.00000

Summer 245,764 14,572 16.87 0.00000

Shoulder 168,055 13,376 12.56 0.00000

Plot of Lake Mead Annual Visitation (Observed v. Predicted)

and Lake Volume