redefining the human-earth relationship… katherine richardson professor og vice dean, university...
TRANSCRIPT
Redefining the Human-Earth relationship…
Katherine Richardson
Professor og Vice Dean, University of Copenhagen
Chairman for ”Climate Commission”
Kaufman, Darrell S., et al. 2009. Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling. Science, September 4, 2009
Steffen, W., et al. 2004
Humanity in the Anthropocene
“much better than expected”?
“Over the past two years, sea levels have not increased at all — actually, they show a slight drop. Should we not be told that this is much better than expected?“
Björn Lomborg “Let the data speak for itself”The Guardian, 14 Oct 2008
Emissions rising faster than predictedRecent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
5
6
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8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
20062005
2007
SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:
A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61
Observed 2000–2006 3.3%
Ocean acidificationChallenge to marine biodiversity and ability of oceans to function as sink of CO2
• Southern Ocean and Arctic ocean projected to become corrosive to aragonite by 2030-2060
Turley et al 2006
Why should we stop burning fossil Why should we stop burning fossil fuels?fuels?
Because of their contribution to climate change.
Because of their contribution to climate change.
Because fossil fuels create geopolitical tensions (national security issues,
economic vulnerability of fluctuating fuel prices, energy
security..)
Because fossil fuels are finite resources – oil: 41 years, natural gas: 60 years, coal: 133 years (source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008)
0
20
40
60
80
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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
mb/
d
Natural gas liquids
Non-conventional oil
Crude oil - yet to be developed (inc. EOR) or found
Crude oil - currently producing fields
International Energy Agency: WorldInternational Energy Agency: Worldoil production in the Reference Scenariooil production in the Reference Scenario
64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth & offset decline
Why fossil fuels create geopolitical tensions.• Proven reserves - oil (source:BP)
Påviste oliereserver fordelt på "politisk region" (BP 2007)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
EU OECD Tidl. Sovjet non-OPEC OPEC
Coal Coal
• Least problematic global distribution of reservesLeast problematic global distribution of reserves• Most problematic for climate changeMost problematic for climate change
Påviste kulreserver pr. region (BP 2007)
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
EU OECD Tidl. Sovjet Andre
Natural GasNatural Gas
• 40 percent better than coal for the climate• National security issues.. (Russia, Iran….)
Naturgasreserver pr. politisk region (BP 2007)
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
EU OECD Tidl. Sovjet Mellemøsten
Danmark’s energy source: world expert in renewable energy but there’s a long way to go!
Danmarks bruttoenergiforbrug i PJ (korrigeret)
0
100
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400
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900
1972 1990 2006 2011 2020
Vedvarendeenergi
Fossiltbrændsel
Energiaftalen
EU's klima- og energiudspil
A double challenge - to reduce energy use and replace fossil fuels as the primary energy source
Rumop-varmning
Elforbrug
Proces(ekskl. el)
Transport
Konverte-ringstab
m.m.
0
100
200
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1000
Energiforbrug 2007 Vedvarende energi 2007
PJ/
år
Anden VE
Vind
Affald
Træ
Halm
Bespa-relser
VEWe have the technology!!
Even the International Energy Even the International Energy Agency says that an ”Energy Agency says that an ”Energy Revolution” is necessaryRevolution” is necessary
Note: In revolutions there are winners and
losers…
Winners understand what challenges the future will bring and are ready to handle them.
In the midst of the COP process…In the midst of the COP process…
A transition to non-fossil fuel energy sources is a necessity and a prerequisite for economic growth in the not too distant
future!
We need to change the way we think and speak about dealing with climate change!
There is also a world after December 2009!!