reduce monthly natural gas consumption

Natural Gas Consumption 1

Reduce Monthly Natural Gas Consumption

John Toksoy

CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL 2

Answer These Q’s in Define Phase

What is the problem being addressed? Who is the customer? What are the business reasons for completing this project? What is the goal of this project? Describe the benefits of this project Where, when and to what extent does this problem occur? What are the boundaries of this project? What resources will be needed for this project? What do you need from your sponsor? team? What data has been collected to understand customer

requirements? What criteria was used in selecting your project?

Define

CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALThis is a Header 3

Y Statement

Reduce monthly natural gas consumption by 20% for the months of Dec thru Mar Set back temperature

Insulation improvements

Define


Develop A Charter

Business Case – Why am I doing this project? Cost savings, Carbon footprint reduction

ME 414 Class Hands on experiment• Learn 6S approach to a given goal

• Learn data analysis

Schedule Complete data collection by mid March before outside

temp warms up

Complete analysis tool development during ME414 Spring 2010 semester

Define

CUMMINS CONFIDENTIAL

Process Map

Do I understand the process? What are the critical parameters? What are the failure modes? Can I measure the quantity to be improved with

at least 80% confidence?

DefineProcess

Map


Process Map

Allows people to illustrate what happens in a process

Useful for clarifying the scope of a project Excellent visual aide for identifying the “hidden

factory” (rework/defect prevention) Identifies all the potential inputs that may affect

the key outputs of the process

Everything we do is a process …some processes are straight forward

…other processes can be chaotic

DefineProcess

Map


Types of Process Map

Process Variables Map Used as the first step in the Six Sigma process (Funnel

Effect)

Critical to successfully improving processes by reducing and removing variation

“As is/Can be” Map Excellent method for identifying non-value-added steps

Necessary first step in cycle time reduction projects

Other types used for specific purposes: Swim-lane, SIPOC, flow-chart, etc…

DefineProcess

Map


The Funneling Effect

Critical Input Variables

30+ Inputs

8 - 10

4 - 8

3 - 6

Found Critical X’s

Controlling Critical X’s

10 - 15

All X’s

1st “Hit List”

Screened List

MEASURE

ANALYZE

IMPROVE

CONTROL

• Process Maps

• Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

• Multi-Vari Studies

• Design of Experiments (DOE)

• Control Plans

• C&E Matrix

DefineProcess

Map


Detailed Process Map

What is the tool? Graphical illustration of

your process

What will the tool identify? All value-added and non-

value-added process steps

Key Process Inputs (X’s) (KPIV)

Key Process Outputs (Y’s) (KPOV)

Data Collection Points

When do you apply process mapping? Always

What are results of Process Mapping? Identify systems

needing Measurement Studies

Identify KPOV’s for Capability Studies

Identify missing elements in the Control Plan

Identify possible non-value-added process steps

DefineProcess

Map


Process Map

Thermostat Set back temp?

Furnace Energy Consumption Gas Bill Measurement system

Energy cost gas & electricity

Measure


Critical Parameter Management

Residential Home Energy Consumption

Electric Natural Gas

Furnace Water Heater Appliances

BTU Capacity

Efficiency

Outside Temp

Inside Set Temp

House Heat Losses


Measure

MSA Measurement system capability study

• Temp sensors, A/D converters• Compare calculated degree days to published deg-days of

Carmel• Inside humidity accuracy

Furnace on time estimate or measurement accuracy

Measure


Heating Degree DaysVectren Bill vs. HDD Measurements

Correlation between vectren, internet site and measured HDD days

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Measure


Heating Deg Days vs. Therms Used

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Measure


HDD vs. Therms Regression Analysis

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Good linear correlation between Therms and heating degree days P value is zero

31.7 Therms at zero heating degree days Water heater

consumption is 31.7 Therms

Measure


Error AnalysisDeviation from Therms vs HDD linearity

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Expect to have a random error No

common cause for errors

Error should not have a trend

No common cause for errors

Error is normally

distributed

Measure


Monthly Variation of HDDJan 2007 – Jan 2010

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Months of February and November shows the most variation. Why?

Measure


Does the Setup Measure Energy Consumption Accurately

For each of the 24 hr data set Calculate the heater on time

Calculate heating degree days

Plot HDD vs. heater on time

Does it show a linear behavior

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Measure


Heater On Time Calculation

Options to calculate heater on time Measure register air temp with LM34 sensor or a

thermistor• Heated air transport delay time between furnace and

register where sensor is located

Microphone to detect air movement• Negligible air movement transport delay

Detect heater on signal from the controller• Best method for heater on time accuracy• Requires one or two more microcontroller I/O pins to pick-

up the fan on and heater on signals• Communication signals are at 24V. Signal needs to be

reduced to 5V before connecting to microcontroller I/O.• Thermostat to furnace communication needs to be decoded. It

is a function of the thermostat brand.

Measure


Relationship between Therms and Heater On Time

Convert heater on time to Therms Furnace spec (BTU-hr, efficiency, model #)

Calculate house heat loss using the excel file Compare calculated heat loss to Therms

calculated from heater on time Is there a good correlation between analysis and

measurement?

Measure


Measurement Error

Error due to long signal wires Filter design

Impact on mean value

ME 414 – 6S Approach 21


Temperature & Humidity Measurement System

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LM34

HIH 4000

Measurement System Components LM34 Temperature sensor

HIH4000 Humidity sensor

LTC1298 A/D converter

HVAC Register Outlet Temp

Outside Ambient Temperature

Room Humidity & Temperature

Measure


First Order Low Pass Filters

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Original Signal

GreenFrom LM34

RedTo LTC 1298

Cut-Off

Cut-Off

Cut-Off

(Hz)

Ground


Initial Capability

Initial capability What is the current energy usage as baseline where

savings will be calculated from• Degree day comparison• Past 5 to 10 years gas and electric bills (kWhr used not $$

$)

Calculate heat loss from the house using the excel analysis tool

• Make the tool more general to include individual rooms

Run transient heat transfer analysis using the Matlab tool and compare to measured data

Analyze


Weekend Temperature DataNo Setback During Daytime



Temperature DataSetback During Daytime



Multi-Vari

Effect of degree days on energy used Heat leaks from the house

Thermal survey around the windows

Window pane inside and outside temperatures

Wall inside temp of outside walls

Literature survey on set-back temperature Furnace specifications – Energy output BTU/hr

Analyze


Setback Temperature

Faster recovery time systems will have more savings with setback Larger AC units will have shorter on times but will

remove less humidity

Effect of setback is negligible if outside temp is > 4 C

8 hr setback period will save 1% energy per degree setback

Analyze


Analyze

DATE HDD CALCULATED

HDD PUBLISHED % ERROR Furnace on

time

# of on-Off Cycles

Calculated

# of on-off cycles seen

on graph

Diff between calculated

and seen on graph

22-Jan 30.058 30 0.1933 2.27 30 30 0

28-Jan 49.59 48 3.3134 3.86 51 51 0

29-Jan 50.308 50 0.6163 4.63 62 62 0

3-Feb 36.879 37 0.3267 2.54 33 33 0

4-Feb 33.904 35 3.1308 3.24 49 49 0

5-Feb 32.651 32 2.0337 3.55 57 57 0

6-Feb 42.255 41 3.0612 3.18 50 50 0

Table #1


Error could occur because of minor temperature fluctuations on site due to the environment.

Error could also occur due to noise in the measurement system.

Improve

Plot #1


Improve

Plot #2


Improve

Plot #3


Improve

R= 0.08

Plot #4


Improve

First Floor

Areas Walls Windows Doors 1st Floor Total

N 426.4 80.2746 0 346.1254

S 538 131.2202 0 406.7798

E 378.4 37.1 0 341.3

W 439.11 0 58.8673 380.2427

Second Floor

Areas Walls Windows Doors 2nd Floor Total

N 575.651 75.71 0 499.941

S 363.2 16.4 0 346.8

E 371.72 0 0 371.72

W 162.5 0 0 162.5

Table #2 & 3

CUMMINS CONFIDENTIALME 414 – 6S Approach 35

Control

Basement

Areas Walls Windows Doors Basement Total

N 142.29 10.2446 0 132.0454

S 142.29 0 0 142.29

E 291.125 0 0 291.125

W 157.25 0 0 157.25

House Total

Areas Walls Windows Doors House Total

N 1144.341 166.2292 0 978.1118

S 1043.49 147.6202 0 895.8698

E 1041.245 37.1 0 1004.145

W 758.86 0 58.8673 699.9927

350.9494 58.8673 3578.1193 3987.936

Table #4 & 5


R-Value

Walls 22.52

Windows 1.5

Doors 2.25

Date Ave T-Out Delta T Heat Loss from Walls

Heat Loss from Windows

Heat Loss from Doors Total Heat losas

22-Jan 34.95 -30.05 -4774.53308 -7030.686313 -786.2054956 -12591.42489

28-Jan 15.41 -49.59 -7879.171229 -11602.38716 -1297.435292 -20778.99369

29-Jan 14.7 -50.3 -7991.980497 -11768.50321 -1316.011196 -21076.49491

3-Feb 28.12 -36.88 -5859.726456 -8628.675915 -964.9004551 -15453.30283

4-Feb 31.1 -33.9 -5386.245305 -7931.45644 -886.9339867 -14204.63573

5-Feb 32.35 -32.65 -5187.63744 -7638.998607 -854.2299311 -13680.86598

6-Feb 22.75 -42.25 -6712.945845 -9885.074767 -1105.397078 -17703.41769


Control

Table #6 & 7


Table #8

House Heat Loss

Month Heat Loss BTU/hr Heat Loss Therms

December -14211415.12 -105732.9285

January -1697289.629 -12627.83484

February -1449628.019 -9741.50029

March -877179.7402 -6526.217267


Control

U= -0.004413551 -0.004


Project Steps

March 24 Process Map

Critical Parameter Flow Down (CPM)

March 31 Calc heater on time using excel programming

Calc heating degree days

Establish a relationship between hdd and heater on time

April 7 Does the calculated hdd correlate with published hdd

What is the heat loss from the house

Does it correlate with the heater on time

Improve


APPENDIX


Therm, BTU, Joule & Calorie

A BTU (British Thermal Unit) is the amount of heat necessary to raise one pound of water by 1 degree Farenheit (F). 1 British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1055 J 1 BTU = 252 cal = 1.055 kJ 1 Quad = 1015 BTU (World energy usage is about 300

Quads/year, US is about 100 Quads/year in 1996.) 1 therm = 100,000 BTU 1,000 kWh = 3.41 million BTU

1 calorie of heat is the amount needed to raise 1 gram of water 1 degree Centigrade. 1 calorie (cal) = 4.184 J

(The Calories in food ratings are actually kilocalories.)


Natural Gas

Energy content 1030 BTU / Cubic Foot Pounds of CO2 per billion BTU of energy:

Coal 208,000 poundsOil 164,000 poundsNatural Gas 117,000 pounds Ratios of CO2 pollution:

Oil / Natural Gas = 1.40Coal / Natural Gas = 1.78

Pounds of CO2 per 1,000 kWh, at 100% efficiency:Coal 709 poundsOil 559 poundsNatural Gas 399 pounds


Humidity Sensor HIH4000 Datasheet

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Parallax - Sensor - Humidity - HIH 4000.pdf


No Power to LM34



5V to LM34 – No Capacitor



5V to LM34 & 33uF Capacitor



Freq Domain – 5V & 33uF



5V No Cap



Bode Plot – Excel Version


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Mag

nitu

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dB)

101

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Pha

se (

deg)

Bode Diagram

Frequency (rad/sec)

121k rad/sec


Bode Plot – Excel Version

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reduce monthly natural gas consumption

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