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  • 8/13/2019 Reduced Stock with Price Target of Rs.66 of Andhra Banks - India Equity Analytics today

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    ANDHRABANK: "REDUCE" 2nd Jan 2014

    During quarter (3QFY14) Andhra Banksstock performance was ahead of fundamental in our view as there are multiple headwinds associate

    with bank like earnings quality, impairment of asset, deposits cost etc. Asset quality of bank remained high at 5% and expected to remain aelevated level along with higher restructure asset. According to banksmanagement, restructure and non performing asset would consists 18%

    of total asset in FY14 means 82% of assets has to service 100% of liability which itself challenging especially when bank with average earning

    high cost of fund and downward trajectory of provision coverage ratio. ...................................... ( Page : 2-4)

    IT Industry; from 2013 to 2014:"a year of innovation and transformation" 1st Jan 2014

    2nd Jan, 201

    Edition : 175

    IEA-Equity

    Strategy

    31th Dec 2013

    "HOLD"

    Last week, V Balakrishnan a former CFO and member of Board director resigned from the company to turn entrepreneur of Private Equity spac

    Currently, he is the head of Infosys business process outsourcing unit, the company's core banking software Finacle, its India business and

    chairman of Infosys Lodestone. This was now the 8th senior and top level departure after the taking charges by Company founder Narayan

    Murthy. At a CMP of Rs 3486, it trades at 19.2x FY14E and 16.7x FY15E earnings. We retain our BUYview on the stock with a target price o

    tar et rice of Rs 3620............................... Pa e : 19- 20

    DCB is currently trading at 1.3 times of one year forward book which is almost upper side of valuation band. We value the bank at Rs.62/shar

    which is 1.4 times of one year forward book and 15 times of FY14E earnings. Valuation multiple is justified at present fundamental in our vie

    but has potential to expand the multiple once visibility of ROE improvement clearly come to on the floor after 1-2 quarter......................................................... ( Page : 16-18)

    J&K Bank is one of our prefer bank in mid cap private sector banking space. Currently bank is trading at 1 times of one year forward book and 4.

    times of one forward earnings which we believe bank is still trading at attractive valuation post recent rally. We advice our investor to hold th

    stock as bank is trading at lower valuation in comparison to private sector banks despite of having sound fundamental. We value bank a

    Rs.1578/share which is 1.1 times of FY15s book and 5.2 times of FY15s earnings. ................................... ( Page : 13-15)

    30th Dec 2013J&K BANK :

    "BUY"RELIANCE : Good Growth Ahead

    Reliance Industries Limited registered a turnover of Rs 197112 Cr for the half year ended 30th September 2013, up 4.7% YoY while it had mad

    turnover of Rs 188,193 Cr in 1HFY13. The exports were higher by 19.3% YoY to Rs 134455 Cr for 1HFY14.. ( Page : 10-12)

    With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead and silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.Th

    Rampura Agucha underground mine project is operational via ramps (tunnel driven downward from the surface) and commercial production w

    ramp up in Q3 and Q4 of FY14. The Kayad mine project will also commence commercial production in the current fiscal year. A cash-rich balanc

    sheet, low cost of production and inexpensive valuations make HZL an attractive bet at the current price levels. But looking at the lower LM

    prices for silver and lead we are neutral for this financial year.we Valuing the stock at this level, we recommend Neutral rating on HZL with

    tar et rice of Rs.143 for FY14........................ Pa e : 7-9

    Year 2014 promises to be bigger and stronger than the last two years, which were marked by bloodbath in global markets due to Euro-zon

    crisis and falling consumer confidence in the US. Demand is set to pick up in sectors like BFSI, healthcare, retail and transportation globally in th

    year ahead. FY 15E is going to be better that FY14E, which was better than FY13. It will be good for us as well as th

    industry............................................ ( Page : 5-6)

    DCB : "REDUCE" 27th Dec 2013

    Infosys : Bala exit; a pros and cons? "BUY" 26th Dec , 2013

    "Neutral"Hindustan Zinc LTD :

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    India Equity Analytics

  • 8/13/2019 Reduced Stock with Price Target of Rs.66 of Andhra Banks - India Equity Analytics today

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    64

    66-

    4

    -

    1M 1yr YTD

    bsolute 0.5 -46.2 -46.2

    el.to Nifty -1.4 -52.7 -52.7

    Current 4QFY13 3QFY1

    omoters 58.0 58.0 58.0

    I 13.3 13.3 13.0

    I 12.4 14.6 15.2

    hers 16.4 14.1 13.8

    Financials Rs, Cr

    2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

    NII 2195 3759 3757 4143 4694

    Total Income 3159 4619 4804 5529 6081

    PPP 1810 2815 2767 2765 3344

    Net Profit 1046 1345 1289 1131 1433

    EPS 22.6 24.0 23.0 19.2 24.3

    kt Capital (Rs Cr)

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    ock Performance

    wk Range H/L

    hange from Previous

    ndhra Bank Vs Nifty

    hare Holding Pattern-%

    1.09lac

    fty 6304

    MP

    arget Price

    Dur ing quar te r (3QFY14) Andhra Banks per fo rmance was ahead

    fund amental in our view as there are mu lt iple headwind s assoc iated with ban

    like earning s quality, impairm ent of asset, depos its cost etc. At the end 2QFY14, banksrestructu re acco unt co nsis ts of 10.6% of total ass et which w

    go up 13% of total ass et in full year alon g with 5% of NPA acc ord ing to th

    manag ement. This imp lies that 82% of total asset has to serv ice 100%

    liabil i ty wh ich wo uld be real challeng es for the bank as per our view. In th

    regards, we analyze trend of imp airment ass et, earning qu ality and cos t

    dep os its and tweak ou r earnin gs estim ate and value bank at 0.4 tim es of boo

    Banksvaluat ion m ay com e down to 0.3 t imes (histor ica l low) looking

    banksown stress and fund amental. We have reduced rat ing on the stock w i

    pr ice targ et of Rs.66.130/47.15

    SE Code 532418

    SE Symbol ANDHRABANK

    ompany UPDATE REDUCE

    ANDHRABANK

    High impairment asset with downward trajectory of PCR

    We observed that banksdeterioration in asset quality was much ahead of peegroup in term of fresh slippage and restructure assets. BanksGNPA and net NP

    during the last quarter was 5.3% and 3.5% much above of industry average of 3.5

    and 2.5% respectively. Asset quality trend is likely to remain at elevated level as p

    management. Total restructure asset consist of 10.6% of total asset and anoth

    Rs.3000 cr are in the pipeline means around 13% of total asset will go for restructu

    and about 50% of fresh restructure slip into non performing asset. If the tren

    continued then GNPA would be 5.5% which would itself alarming specially for t

    bank because its provision coverage ratio without technical write off was low at 33%

    Bank has been continuous downward trajectory of PCR which implying very lit

    cushion for its future earnings.

    Average quality of earnings asset and stress in other segment keep NIM at lo

    During 2QFY14, banksadvance grew by 15% YoY and yield on advance declined

    11.4% as against average run rate of 12%. We model 15% of advance growth w

    11% of loan yield for FY14E and FY15E largely due to challenging econom

    environment and present running trend. Earnings asset especially with loan a

    investment yield have nothing extraordinary as far as we observed and are likely

    remain at average quality. With average quality of earnings asset and stress in oth

    segment would keep NIM at low.

    verage Daily Volume

    1473

    evious Target Price

    arket Data

    pside

    "REDUCE"2nd Jan, 2014

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

  • 8/13/2019 Reduced Stock with Price Target of Rs.66 of Andhra Banks - India Equity Analytics today

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    aluation Band

    ANDHRABANK

    Source:Company/Eastwind

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    ASA trend declined; high cost of deposits

    ankslow cost of deposits (CASA) trend has been declining from 35% in FY07 to 24%

    2QFY14. We observed that banks CASA ratio remained stick to 24% in last 7-8

    arters. In rising interest rate scenario, cost of deposits could not be sustained at 7.5 to

    % without adequate support of CASA. In term of deposits cost, Andhra bankscost ofeposits remain high at 7.7 %( 2QFY14) as compare to peers average of 7%. However

    e model 7.5% of cost of deposits and 24% of CASA for FY14E and FY15E in line with

    esent trend.

    ew & Valuation

    ndhra Banks stock performance during the quarter (3QFY14) was ahead of

    ndamental in our view. There are multiple headwinds regarding the earnings and asset

    uality which would erode the book value in FY14. At the end of 2QFY14, banks

    structure account consists of 10.6% of total asset which will go up 13% of total asset in

    l year along with 5% of NPA according to the management. This implies that 82% of

    tal asset has to service 100% of liability which would be real challenges for the bank as

    er our view. In the regards, we analyze trend of impairment asset, earning quality and

    st of deposits and tweak our earnings estimate and value bank at 0.4 times of book.

    anks valuation may come down to 0.3 times (historical low) looking at banks own

    ress and fundamental. We have reduced rating on the stock with price target of Rs.66.

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

  • 8/13/2019 Reduced Stock with Price Target of Rs.66 of Andhra Banks - India Equity Analytics today

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    ANDHRABANK

    Source: Eastwind/Company

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    ncome Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

    terest Income 6373 11339 12910 15555 17818

    terest Expense 4178 7579 9153 11412 13124

    II 2195 3759 3757 4143 4694

    hange (%) 34.9 71.3 -0.1 10.3 13.3

    on Interest Income 965 860 1047 1387 1387

    otal Income 3159 4619 4804 5529 6081

    hange (%) 32.1 46.2 4.0 15.1 10.0

    perating Expenses 1350 1804 2037 2765 2736

    re Provision Profits 1810 2815 2767 2765 3344

    hange (%) 40.5 55.5 -1.7 -0.1 21.0

    rovisions 374 991 996 1215 1382

    BT 1436 1824 1771 1549 1963

    AT 1046 1345 1289 1131 1433

    hange (%) 60.2 28.6 -4.1 -12.3 26.7

    alance Sheet

    eposits( Rs Cr) 77688 105851 123796 142365 163720

    hange (%) 31 36 17 15 15

    f which CASA Dep 22864 27947 31759 34168 39293

    hange (%) 23 22 14 8 15

    orrowings( Rs Cr) 5852 8241 11119 13225 15209

    vestments( Rs Cr) 20881 29629 37632 43565 50100

    oans( Rs Cr) 56114 83223 98373 113129 130099

    hange (%) 27 48 18 15 15

    atio

    vg. Yield on loans 9.2 11.1 10.5 11.0 11.0

    vg. Yield on Investments 5.7 6.7 6.6 7.0 7.0

    vg. Cost of Deposit 4.9 6.6 6.9 7.51 7.51

    vg. Cost of Borrowimgs 6.4 7.7 5.4 5.5 5.5

    aluation

    ook Value 91 134 151 166 190

    MP 108 119 95 63.6 63.6

    /BV 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3

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    IT Industry; from 2013 to 2014

    Favorable supply side scenario:

    SMAC as new emerging opportunity:

    fty and CNX IT Performance(2013); IT Industry with perception "I can do it better"

    The year 2013 has proved a year of innovation and transformation for IT indust

    across all verticals and geographies led by healthy demand environment and posit

    factors for Industry, Indian IT Industry came to track with positive surprise a

    opportunities. The resilient of $120bn plus IT Industry returned to higher grow

    trajectory in 2013 and expecting to retain its momentum in the ensuring year fo

    greater share of global multi-billion dollar IT Industry.

    "a year of innovation and transformation"

    Euro zone was a pleasant surprise in 2013 with no bad news surfacing from that part

    the world. But that does not mean the sovereign debt problems have been solv

    permanent. The attractiveness of Europe as a market is being reflected in the acquisit

    activity within Tier-I IT (Valuesource, Equinox and C1 Group by Cognizant, Alti by TCS a

    Infosys' acquisition of Lodestone).

    Though attrition remained higher than last year, especially among the bellwethe

    campus hiring and fresh offers declined during the year. However, utilization ra

    especially on onsite and offshore are on increasing mode, it indicates favorable supp

    side scenario for the industry.

    Pleasant surprise from Euro zone:

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    With its top 4 bellwethers TCS, Infosys, Wipro and HCL- have been consolidated

    presence in software service sector. Now, new players with expertise in new emerg

    services have entered into the marathon race and performing well in all aspec

    Indian IT Industry has been successful to maintain double-digit growth again in exp

    as well as in the domestic markets.

    INR Depreciation:

    Factors behind the success story of IT Industry in 2013:

    R/USD&CNX IT Performance(2013);

    SMAC (social, mobile, analytics and cloud ) is throwing up huge opportunities as firm

    want to optimise investments in current technology and drive growth by using digi

    technologies and platforms. The digital forces of SMAC will reach mainstream status

    2014 and create requirements, drive new purchasing and establish new competiti

    realities.

    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    013 has been a year of innovation and

    transformation

    The Indian IT governing body NASSCOM is expecting to clock 12-14% revenue growth

    USD term for FY14E, while Industry had reported 10-12% range of growth in FY13

    Now, we expect higher growth with stable margin trajectory for FY 15E than previo

    years led by healthy demand scenario and offering new delivery platform like analytimobility, cloud, social media and emerging verticals such as healthcare and medic

    devices.

    NASSCOM on positive mood:

    The Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated against USD roughly by around 13-14% since J

    1, 2013. The INR depreciation is favorable for all exporters and IT companies. As

    thumb rule, a 1% change in value of the rupee against the US dollar has an impact of 3

    40 bps on the operating margins of a company. During the 2QFY14, across the IT spac

    companies reported healthy ramp up in operating margin.

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    59.5%

    6.8%

    59.5%

    13%

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    - Govt mulls fresh incentives for IT companies,

    -Software exports to grow 12-14% to clock $84-87 billion in FY14E,

    -Domestic market to also grow 14% to $185 billion in FY14E,

    -N.R. Narayana Murthy returns to Infosys as chairman,

    -8 top executives quit Infosys in 6 months,

    -Wipro hives off non-IT business as separate enterprise,

    -Industry diversifies into offering new services & products,

    -Campus hiring and fresh offers dip despite higher attrition,

    -Thrust on providing IP-led solutions on multiple platforms,

    e have seen a significant increase in global technology spending this year, creating

    pportunities for the Indian software services sector to post double digit growth again in

    port as well as in the domestic markets.

    FY 15E is going to be better that FY14E

    which was better than FY13. It will be

    good for us as well as the industry

    (Source: Company/Eastwi

    ghlights of 2013: Performance of Our IT Coverage

    oncerns:

    owever, hardening of regulatory related to visa approval in USA, Canada and Australia

    uld spoil the party. Even, the approval of Immigration Bill attached with higher visa fee,

    age requirements and enhanced audit by US agencies could turn the growth story of

    dian IT players adversely. If passed in its current form, the Bill could hurt the margins

    the Indian IT export sector, which derives almost 55-60% of its revenues from USA.

    014 and IT Industry: Another year of flawless ride

    anks to playing a pivotal role of technology across transforming delivery of diverse

    rvices in the government and private sector, the domestic market is also maturing and

    one of the fastest in the developing countries.

    (Source: Company/Eastwin

    IT Industr ; from 2013 to 2014

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    ar 2014 promises to be bigger and stronger than the last two years, which were marked

    bloodbath in global markets due to Euro-zone crisis and falling consumer confidence in

    e US. Demand is set to pick up in sectors like BFSI, healthcare, retail and transportation

    obally in the year ahead.

    ew and Valuation;

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    CMP Upside

    (31.12.13) % FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15

    S 2170.95 BUY 2369.1 9.1% 71.82 90.74 102.37 30.23 23.92 21.21 36.42% 36.22% 32.95

    FOSYS 3485.5 BUY 3982.7 14.3% 164.2 181.1 208.2 21.23 19.25 16.74 24.8% 23.0% 22.2

    CLTECH 1263.1 BUY 1415.5 12.1% 58.10 71.87 83.49 21.74 17.57 15.13 30.72% 29.10% 26.39

    PRO 559.05 NEUTRAL 469.97 25.0 25.15 27.4 22.32 22.23 20.40 21.7% 18.9% 17.8

    CHM 1838.05 BUY 2329.5 26.7% 85.48 144.15 161.64 21.50 12.75 11.37 35.91% 38.31% 30.38MC 1632 BUY 1692.5 3.7% 75.27 101.56 110.07 21.68 16.07 14.83 24.10% 25.81% 22.92

    TTECH 360.5 BUY 408.32 13.3% 36.28 44.03 53.38 9.94 8.19 6.75 20.0% 19.6% 19.3

    IT 171.55 BUY 177.33 3.4% 10.80 13.07 15.95 15.88 13.13 10.75 20.10% 19.80% 19.75

    XAWARE 131.75 BUY 140.59 6.7% 11.1 13.1 14.3 11.87 10.09 9.21 27.2% 27.0% 26%

    RSISTENT 980.05 REDUCE 960.51 46.12 63.40 76.92 21.25 15.46 12.74 18.1% 20.5% 20.4

    LERX 1068.5 BUY 1357.9 27.1% 64.25 71.61 83.65 16.63 14.92 12.77 43.8% 37.9% 34.4

    TAELXSI 415.65 REDUCE 236.85 10.63 17.53 19.76 39.10 23.72 21.03 16.94% 23.55% 22.37

    NSARTECH 355.85 BUY 439.43 23.5% 40.03 57.16 74.62 8.89 6.23 4.77 23.22% 26.07% 26.34

    RoE-%mpany View Target

    EPS-Rs P/E-x

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    Hindustan Zinc LTD.

    133

    143

    NA8%

    NA

    500188 Revenue increased due to Depreciation in Rupee

    56133

    5613

    6291

    1M 1yr YTD

    solute 4.3 -1.7 -3.4

    l. to Nifty 0.0 9.2 11.3

    2QFY14 1QFY14 4QFY13

    omoters 64.9 64.9 64.9

    1.8 1.5 1.5

    31.4 31.5 2.0

    hers 1.8 2.1 31.6

    Investment Concern

    Financials : Q2FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q2FY13 Q1FY1

    Net Revenue 3826 13.0 6.2 3387 360EBITDA 1883 28.2 25.3 1469 150

    Depriciation 186 6.3 1.1 175 18

    Tax 254 -6.3 -4.9 271 26

    PAT 1640 6.5 -1.2 1540 166(In Cr

    erage Daily Volume (Nos.)

    E Code

    HINDZINCE Symbol

    wk Range H/L

    kt Capital (Rs Crores)

    143/94

    fty

    Hind Zinc reported net sales of Rs3559 Cr up by 24% YoY and 19% QoQ. The growth wa

    mainly due to higher sales volume and improvement in realisation per tonne. The ne

    realsation per tonne of zinc increased by 15% on YoY basis and 9% QoQ at Rs.131794. Th

    net realization per tonne of Lead remained almost flat on YoY basis and increased by 5%

    in QoQ basis. The increase in net realization per tone is due to depreciation in rupeeZincscost of production before royalty during the quarter was Rs.50522 , 8% higher i

    Rupee and 3% lower in USD terms on YoY basis.

    side

    ange from Previous

    MP

    rget Price

    evious Target Price

    Mined metal production in Q2FY14 was 221k tonnes against 190k tonnes YoY basis

    growth of 8.5% and 238k tonnes in Q1 FY14. The increase is due to higher production a

    Rampura Agucha and restarting of Zawar mines. Integrated Refined Zinc production wa

    at 195k tonnes in Q2FY14 against 153k tonnes in Q2FY13 increase of 28%. IntegrateLead Production was at 29k tonnes against 22k tonnes growth of 31% YoY basis. Silve

    production was at 83 tonnes in Q2FY14 against 77 tonnes YoY basis. The increase i

    Production of Zinc and lead was on account of improved utilization of smelter capacity.

    ompany Update Neutral

    arket Data

    The cost of production benefited from higher production volume and operation

    efficiencies, which were more than offset by rupee depreciation and over Rs 3000/M

    decline in by-product credits On YoY basis. The Net Realization per tonne of Silve

    slumped by 24% on YoY basis. This fall in realization was due to fall in price of silver in

    LME as company adopts the import parity price. The CompanysEBIDTA zoomed by 28%

    YoY basis at Rs 1,883 Cr and 30% QoQ basis. Net profit was up 7% to Rs. 1,640 Cr in Q2

    The positive impact of higher EBITDA was partly offset by lower other income due t

    mark-to-market losses on investments during the quarter.

    HZLsrevenues are directly linked with the global market for products essentially, Zin

    and Lead which are priced with reference to LME prices and Silver to LBMA (Londo

    Bullion Metal Association) prices.

    Disruptions in mining due to equipment failures, unexpected maintenance problems

    non-availability of raw materials of appropriate price, quantity and quality for our energ

    requirements, disruptions to or increased cost of transport services or strikes an

    industrial actions or disputes.Lower than expected demand by galvanizing industries fo

    zinc and industrial batteries, car batteries industries for lead would affect the compan

    estimates.

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    ock Performance-%

    are Holding Pattern-%

    yr Forward P/B

    Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

    "Neutral"31st Dec' 13

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Jan-07

    Jul-07

    Jan-08

    Jul-08

    Jan-09

    Jul-09

    Jan-10

    Jul-10

    Jan-11

    Jul-11

    Jan-12

    Jul-12

    Jan-13

    Jul-13

    Jan-14

  • 8/13/2019 Reduced Stock with Price Target of Rs.66 of Andhra Banks - India Equity Analytics today

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    wer other income mutes PAT growth: LME Price/Ton

    om the Management Corner :

    utlook and valuation:

    LME Price/Ton

    LME Price/Ton

    FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E

    9912 11405 12700 13577

    979 1543 2032 1787

    10891 12948 14732 15364

    1023 1228 1070 1291

    492 568 696 707

    4417 5336 6218 6484

    5496 6069 6482 7093

    475 611 647 718

    19 14 29 371059 1419 921 1097

    4900 5526 6899 6967

    21.8 20.7 21.4 18.5

    8

    terest Costet tax expense / (benefit)

    AT

    OE%

    epriciation

    Hindustan Zinc LTD.

    L PERFORMANCE

    et Revenue from Operation

    her Income

    tal Income

    e other income declined by 48.7% yoy to 267cr due to mark to market losses booked

    the company during the quarter while depreciation expenses also increased by 6.8%

    y to 186cr. Consequently the adjusted net profit growth was muted at 10.5% yoy to

    701cr (in-line with our estimate of 1,722cr).

    ith a cash-rich balance sheet and strong visibility over production growth of zinc, lead

    d silver over FY2013-15, we are positive on HZL.The Rampura Agucha underground

    ne project is operational via ramps (tunnel driven downward from the surface) and

    mmercial production will ramp up in Q3 and Q4 of FY14. The Kayad mine project will

    so commence commercial production in the current fiscal year. A cash-rich balance

    eet, low cost of production and inexpensive valuations make HZL an attractive bet at

    e current price levels. But looking at the lower LME prices for silver and lead we are

    utral for this financial year.we Valuing the stock at this level, we recommend Neutral

    ting on HZL with a target price of Rs.143 for FY14.

    olatile Desel Price and high Sulphuric acid price affecting the company,s PAT

    versly.Company is tracking on 95% capacity utilization.Captive plants enjoy the lower

    x rate and company enjoys zero tax from tax free geographycal areas. Smelting Plants

    e improvised and management is confident that the smelting plants will maintain

    eir stance for the coming quarters also.

    wer, fuel & water

    pairs

    penditure

    ITDA

    Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

    Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

    Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    10001200

    1400

    1600

    1800

    Jan-13

    Feb-13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-13

    Jun-13

    Jul-13

    Aug-13

    Sep-13

    Oct-13

    Nov-13

    Dec-13

    Silver(rs/ounce)

    0

    20000

    40000

    60000

    80000

    100000

    120000

    140000160000

    Jan-13

    Feb-13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-13

    Jun-13

    Jul-13

    Aug-13

    Sep-13

    Oct-13

    Nov-13

    Dec-13

    Lead

    90000

    95000

    100000

    105000

    110000

    115000

    120000

    125000

    Jan-13

    Feb-13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-13

    Jun-13

    Jul-13

    Aug-13

    Sep-13

    Oct-13

    Nov-13

    Dec-13

    Zinc

  • 8/13/2019 Reduced Stock with Price Target of Rs.66 of Andhra Banks - India Equity Analytics today

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    FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

    are 423 845 845 845

    serve & 17701 21688 26036 31431

    tal equity 18124 22533 26881 32276

    ng-term 0 0 0 0ort-term 60 0 0 0

    ng-term 0 0 0 0

    ade 478 475 410 484

    ort-term 340 567 504 825

    tal 20238 25053 29485 35465

    tangibles 109 109 47 10

    ngible 6071 7145 8466 8474

    pital 1113 875 445 1082

    ng-term 361 594 876 1898

    ventories 452 762 798 1111

    ade 152 209 332 403

    sh and 928 5633 5255 6942

    ort-term 96 158 233 373

    tal 20238 25053 29485 35465

    FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

    B 3.2 2.2 2.1 1.7

    S 95.6 11.6 13.1 16.3

    ebtor to 1.9 2.1 2.9 3.2

    editors to 6.0 4.8 3.6 3.8

    ventories 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9

    FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

    sh from 4001 4483 4553 4935anges In 77 -212 -61 -183

    et Cash 4077 4272 4492 4752

    sh From -3881 -3658 -3499 -3234

    sh from -187 -363 -1242 -1257

    et Cash 8 250 -248 262

    Hindustan Zinc LTD.

    ZinC Productions:

    Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

    S PERFORMANCE

    rading At :

    ATIOS

    ASH FLOWS

    Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

    Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

    EBIDTA & Margin :

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000 NIFTY HINDZINC

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    BUY

    1M 1yr YTD

    bsolute 4 6 11

    el. to Nifty 0.5 -1 -7

    Current 1QFY14 4QFY1

    omoters 45.3 45.3 45.3

    17.7 17.4 17.8

    I 11.8 11.6 11.0

    hers 25.2 25.7 25.9

    Rs, Cro

    2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%

    Revenue 103758 90336 14.9 87645 18.4

    EBITDA 9909 9610 3.1 9818 0.9

    PAT 5490 5352 2.6 5409 1.5

    EBITDA Margin 9.6% 10.6% (110bps) 11.2% (170bps

    PAT Margin 5.3% 5.9% (60bps) 6.2% (90bps)

    Half Year ly Bus iness Performance

    wk Range H/L 954/765

    SE Symbol RELIANCE

    OIL AND GAS (EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION) BUSINESS:

    Company for half year ended earned Rs 2918 Cr from this business segment down 38.7% YoY mainly due to Fall in production from KG-D6 owing to geological complexand natural decline in the fields.The EBIT margin for the segment in 1HFY14 was 24.3% .

    REFINING & MARKETING BUSINESS

    hange from Previous -

    18%pside

    Yr Price Movement Vs Nifty

    (Source: Company/Eastwi

    283929

    verage Daily Volume 52019

    fty 6313

    Financials

    Reliance Industries Limited registered a turnover of Rs 197112 Cr for the half year end30th September 2013, up 4.7% YoY while it had made turnover of Rs 188,193 Cr1HFY13.The exports were higher by 19.3% YoY to Rs 134455 Cr for 1HFY14.

    Revenue from Refining and Marketing segment during 1HFY14 increased by 5.7% YoYRs 178,914 Cr, while EBIT was up 8.3% YoY at Rs 6,125 Cr. GRMs averaged $ 8.0/bduring 1H FY14 and the refineries achieved an average utilization rate of 112%. 1H FY

    export of refined products was at 22.1 MMT as compared to 19.2 MMT in 1H FY13.

    PETROCHEMICALS BUSINESS

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    Half Year ly Financial Perform ance

    The operating EBITDA during 1HFY14 was Rs 14924 Cr up 2.3 % YoY on the backhigher margins in refining and petrochemicals business. The cost RM increased by 3 %Rs 162,094 from Rs 156,975 Cr due to higher crude prices. The employee cost for 1HFYwas Rs 1707 Cr largely flat on yearly basis. The other expenditure increased by 13.6% Yto Rs 13,101 Cr primarily due to higher expenses on account of power & fuel consumptand higher selling expenses on account of higher exports.

    The profit after tax was higher by 9.4% at Rs 10,842 Cr as against Rs 9,912 Cr in tcorresponding period of the previous year. The other income for 1HFY14 stands Rs 4595 up 14 % YoY mainly due to higher investment income.

    1HFY14 revenue from the Petrochemicals segment increased by 6.7% YoY to Rs 46,8Cr. Higher prices accounted for 7.4% growth in revenue. EBIT margin improved to 9.4%1H FY14 as compared to 8.0% a year ago. The production during 1HFY14 was 11 MTones verses 11.1 Mn Tonnes in 1HFY13.

    RELIANCEGood Growth Ahead

    ock Performance-%

    hare Holding Pattern-%

    kt Capital (Rs, Cr)

    arket Data

    SE Code 500325

    Abou t the Company

    Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is a conglomerate with business in the energy amaterials value chain. The Company operates in three segments: petrochemicals, refini

    and oil & gas.

    ompany UpdateMP 878

    arget Price 1040

    evious Target Price -

    "BUY" 30thDec' 13

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    RELIANCE

    ontinued.

    ew and Valuat ione stock is trading at Rs 878 and in light of half yearly performance, business outlook and

    anagement commentary we recommend BUY for the stock with Target Price Rs

    40.

    QFY14 SEGMENTAL REVENUE BREAK UP

    raphical Depict ion

    e net addition to fixed assets for the half year ended 30th September 2013 was Rs,154 Cr including exchange rate difference capitalization. Capital expenditure wasncipally on account of ongoing expansions projects in the petrochemicals and refiningsiness at Jamnagar, Dahej, Silvassa and Hazira.

    e Outstanding debt as on 30th September 2013 was Rs 83,982 Cr compared to Rs,427 Cr as on 31st March 2013. The company had cash and cash equivalents of Rs,540 Cr. These were in bank deposits, mutual funds, CDs and Government securities /nds. RIL is debt free on a net basis as at 30th September 2013.

    anagement Commentary

    e management of the company on their half yearly performance said that diversified andegrated petrochemicals business captured margins across segments and delivered nearcord profit levels even as the domestic economy slowed. The management further saidat optimal utilization of best-in-class refinery assets and inherent flexibility in sourcing,

    oduct delivery contributed to healthy operating profits from our refining business .

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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    BITDA & OPM %

    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    AT & NPM %

    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    The improved margin and higher volume

    the petrochemical (petchem) business w

    the major drivers of the profit in Q2FY2014

    Despite a healthy revenue growth, O

    remain flat due to a lower margin in

    refining and exploration segments

    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    RELIANCE

    les Trend (Rs/Bn)

    A better realisation with a weaker rupee aimproved volume were the key drivers of

    sales growth of both petchem and refin

    businesses.

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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    J&K BANK

    1411

    15781420

    12

    11

    1M 1yr YTD

    bsolute 3.6 7.8 7.8

    el.to Nifty -12.9 -0.8 -0.8

    Current 4QFY13 3QFY1

    omoters 53.2 53.2 53.2

    I 24.8 24.5 24.3

    I 5.0 4.9 4.9

    hers 17.1 17.4 17.7

    Financials Rs, Cr2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

    NII 1544 1838 2316 2595 3091

    Total Income 1908 2172 2800 2979 3817

    PPP 1149 1370 1811 1906 2443

    Net Profit 615 803 1055 1128 1478

    EPS 126.9 165.7 217.6 232.6 304.9

    Strong balance sheet growth con t inued with margin expansion

    J&K bank aggressively expanding its loan growth outside of the state and witness

    20.3% growth whereas within state loan grew by 26.4% in 2QFY14. Manageme

    guided loan growth of 20-25% in FY14 premium of industry average of 15

    Deposits growth would be 17-18% in FY14 according to management. BanksCAS

    ratio at the end of 2Q stood at 39% which keep cost of deposits at 6% of level, o

    of the lowest in industry. Low cost and high yield asset helped bank to maintain N

    at 4.33%. Banks management guided NIM 4%+ level in FY14.

    Sustainable high return ratio makes a strong case to trade at premium

    valuation

    J&K bank has sustainable high return ratio like ROE of 23%+ and ROA of 1.5%

    which help bank to maintain high valuation premium. Operating leverage (operati

    cost to total asset) of the bank remains at 1.4 to 1.6 times in last few quarters wh

    restrict cost income escalate beyond 36%. Capital adequacy ratio of 13.2

    according to basel-II helps bank to maintain high growth trajectory with raising capi

    in next few years.

    Stable asset quality with lowest restructure asset comparison to peers

    ompany Update HOLD

    MP

    arget Price

    Jammu and Kas hm ir Bank (J&K Bank ) is one of our prefer bank in mid ca

    private sector ban king s pace. Currently bank is trading at 1times of one ye

    forw ard book and 4.6 times of one forw ard earnings wh ich w e believe bank st i l l t rading at at t ract ive valuat ion despi te of recent ra l ly . We advice o

    inves tor to hold the stoc k as bank is trading at low er valuat ion pr emium

    com pariso n to peers despite of havin g soun d fundamental. We value bank

    Rs.1578/share which is 1.1 times o f FY15sbook and 5.2 times o f FY15

    earnings. Look ing atbanksmetric s lik e Tier1 cap ital of 13.2%, GNPA of 1.7

    PCR at 92% mak e it stron g for trading at premium valu ation as com pare

    peers group.

    evious Target Price

    arket Data

    pside

    SE Code 532209

    wk Range H/L

    hange from Previous

    &k Bank Vs Nifty

    hare Holding Pattern-%

    21053

    fty 6314

    verage Daily Volume

    6841

    1695/1130

    SE Symbol J&KBANK

    kt Capital (Rs Cr)

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    ock Performance

    At the end of 2QFY14, bank reported GNPA of 1.7% and in absolute basis, GNP

    grew by mere 4% QoQ despite of current phase of economy cycle. Restructure loa

    declined by 70 bps to 3.6% of loans whereas fresh restructure was low at 70 bps

    loan. Provision coverage ratio declined by 250 bps QoQ to 89% (without technic

    write-off) made net NPA to 0.2% from 0.1% in 1QFY14.

    "HOLD"30th Dec, 2013

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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    J&K BANK

    Source: Eastwind/Company

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    aterly Result (Rs. Cr) 2QFY14 1QFY14 2QFY13 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr

    erest/discount on advances / bills 1244 1184 1061 17.3 5.0

    ome on investments 396 423 417 -5.0 -6.3

    erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 10 17 23 -57.4 -42.8

    hers 0 0 0

    tal Interest Income 1650 1624 1501 9.9 1.6

    hers Income 99 92 91 9.4 7.9

    tal Income 1749 1716 1592 9.9 1.9

    erest Expended 968 969 948 2.1 -0.1

    682 655 553 23.4 4.1

    her Income 99 92 91 9.4 7.9

    tal Income 781 747 644 21.4 4.6

    ployee 177 176 143 23.6 0.6

    her Expenses 108 90 78 38.7 19.4

    erating Expenses 285 266 221 28.9 7.0

    P( Rs Cr) 496 481 423 17.5 3.2

    ovisions 56 36 33 69.7 53.7

    T 441 445 390 13.1 -0.9

    x 138 137 120 14.8 1.0

    t Profit 303 308 270 12.3 -1.7

    ance Sheet Data ( Rs Cr)

    t Worth 5475 5173 4609 18.8 5.9

    posits 61171 58601 54927 11.4 4.4rrowings 1346 758 922 45.9 77.7

    vances 41121 39282 34272 20.0 4.7

    estment 22316 21734 22521 -0.9 2.7

    set Qaulity ( Rs Cr)

    PA 709 665 709 0.0 6.5

    PA 78 56 78 0.0 38.2

    PA(%) 1.7 1.7 2.1

    PA(%) 0.2 0.1 0.2R(%) 89 92 89

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    J&K BANK

    Source: eastwind/Company

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    L 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015Eerest/discount on advances / bills 2342 2630 3394 4318 4959 5703

    ome on investments 705 1066 1403 1723 1892 2085

    erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 11 17 39 97 53 53

    hers 0 0 0 0 0 0

    tal Interest Income 3057 3713 4836 6137 6904 7841

    hers Income 416 365 334 484 383 727

    tal Income 3473 4078 5170 6621 7287 8568

    erest on deposits 1841 2069 2902 3741 4217 4639

    erest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 83 46 41 26 91 111

    hers 14 54 54 54 0 0

    erest Expended 1938 2169 2997 3821 4308 4750

    1119 1544 1838 2316 2595 3091

    Growth(%) 37.9 19.1 26.0 12.1 19.1

    her Income 416 365 334 484 383 727

    tal Income 1536 1908 2172 2800 2979 3817

    ployee 366 524 521 652 633 811

    her Expenses 211 235 281 337 440 563

    erating Expenses 577 759 802 989 1072 1374

    P( Rs Cr) 958 1149 1370 1811 1906 2443

    ovisions 446 534 567 756 779 965

    t Profit 512 615 803 1055 1128 1478

    t Profit Grwoth(%) 20.1 30.6 31.4 6.9 31.1

    y Balance sheet data

    posits 37237 44676 53347 64221 70643 77707

    posits Growth(%) 20.0 19.4 20.4 10.0 10.0

    rrowings 1100 1105 1241 1075 1230 1500

    rrowings Growth(%) 0.4 12.3 -13.4 14.4 22.0

    an 23057 26194 33077 39200 45080 51843

    an Growth(%) 13.6 26.3 18.5 15.0 15.0

    estments 13956 19696 21624 25741 20124 22178

    estments Growth(%) 41.1 9.8 19.0 -21.8 10.2

    stwind Calculation

    ld on Advances 10.2 10.0 10.3 11.0 11.0 11.0

    ld on Investments 5.0 5.4 6.5 9.4 9.4 9.4

    ld on Funds 7.7 7.5 8.3 8.9 10.6 10.6

    st of deposits 4.9 4.6 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.0

    st of Borrowings 8.8 9.1 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4

    st of fund 5.1 4.7 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.0

    luation

    ok Value 621 718 844 1003 1186 1441

    BV 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0

    E 6.4 6.9 5.5 5.9 6.1 4.6

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    57.25

    6262

    8

    -

    1M 1yr YTD

    bsolute 19.2 20.4 20.4

    el.to Nifty 15.6 13.1 13.1

    Current 4QFY13 3QFY1

    omoters 18.5 18.5 18.5

    I 11.4 11.4 11.1

    I 14.1 12.5 13.0

    hers 56.1 57.7 57.5

    Financials Rs, Cr2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

    NII 189 228 284 127 190

    Total Income 301 328 401 272 334

    PPP 86 84 126 95 127

    Net Profit 21 55 102 95 127

    EPS 1.1 2.3 4.1 3.8 5.1

    DCB

    hange from Previous

    CB Vs Nifty

    hare Holding Pattern-%

    2158026

    fty 6279

    Developm ent Credit Bank (DCB) cur rent ly trading at 1.3 times o f one ye

    forw ard book whic h is now alm ost of higher side of our valuat ion range. W

    valu e the bank at Rs.62/sh are at the high er side whi ch is 1.4 tim es of one yeforw ard book and 15 times of FY14Esearnings. Present valuat ion mult ip

    jus t if ied on account of DCBscon sis tent improv ement in its return rat io an

    management guided simi lar t rend of growth in FY14,however bank ci te

    marg in could be com press ed by 25-30 bps . We cantrule out the valuat io

    mu ltip le exp ans ion s but there is need to watch 1-2 qu arters mo re as per o

    view

    verage Daily Volume

    1437

    evious Target Price

    arket Data

    pside

    Well capitalized and stable asset quality

    Bank is well capitalized with tier 1 ratio of 13% means no need to raise money

    short term. Banksmanagement guided loan and deposits growth of 25-27% and 3

    32% in FY14 which seen possible looking at present scenario. Management is al

    very focus on low ticket size loan (prefer less than 30 mn) on account of avoidilarge slippage. At the 2QFY14, bank reported slippage of Rs.21 cr which was 1.3

    in annualized basis. Fresh slippage ratio remains in the range of 1.1-1.5 times in la

    few quarters, so we believe bank would maintain similar trend in term of fre

    slippage which restrict GNPA out of control. Provision coverage ratio at the end

    2QFY14 stood at 84% (without technical write off) and management reiterate PCR

    maintain above of 80%.

    kt Capital (Rs Cr)

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    Potential to expand valuation multiple, need to watch growth trajectory 1

    quarters more

    On valuation front, DCB valuation could be expanded if visibility of RO

    improvement is clearly seen. ROE improvement could be possible in two front- firreducing cost income ratio which will boost the profit and second loan grow

    specially in high yield segment like SME and MSME. We observed that banksCo

    Income ratio was higher at 66.2% at the end of 2QFY14. Cost income ratio wou

    reduce to less than 65% in FY14 and would further reduce to 60% in FY15 accordi

    to management. To reduce the cost, bank initiated to invest high yield segme

    planning to maintain CASA at 30% in long run while in short term does not expe

    below of 27% and escalating branch network. In FY13 bank opened 10 branches b

    in 1HFY14, DCB opened 9 branches and will go upto 120-125 branches in FY14.

    54.85/38

    ock Performance

    ompany Update Book Profit

    MP

    arget Price

    SE Code 532772

    SE Symbol DCB

    wk Range H/L

    "Book Profit"27th Dec,2013

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

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    DCB

    Source: Company/Eastwind

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    uarterly Result( Rs Cr) 2QFY14 1QFY14 2QFY13 % YoY % QoQ

    erest/discount on advances / bills 205.2 201.5 170.9 20.1 1.8

    come on investments 57.9 56.7 47.6 21.8 2.1

    erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 5.5 2.3 1.1 378.2 142.4

    hers 0.2 0.2 0.4 -45.6 -9.7

    tal Interest Income 268.8 260.7 219.9 22.2 3.1

    hers Income 27.3 45.1 27.5 -0.9 -39.5

    tal Income 296.1 305.8 247.5 19.6 -3.2

    erest Expended 177.6 177.6 153.0 16.1 0.0

    91.3 83.1 67.0 36.3 9.8

    her Income 27.3 45.1 27.5 -0.9 -39.5

    tal Income 118.5 128.2 94.5 25.5 -7.6

    mployee 38.8 37.7 34.1 13.9 2.9

    her Expenses 39.6 39.2 33.9 16.8 1.1

    erating Expenses 78.4 76.9 68.0 15.4 2.0

    P( Rs Cr) 40.1 51.3 26.5 51.4 -21.8

    ovisions 7.0 8.5 4.4 60.8 -17.4

    T 33.1 42.8 22.1 49.5 -22.7

    x 0.0 0.0 0.0

    t Profit 33.1 42.8 22.1 49.5 -22.7

    lance Sheet (Rs Cr)

    t Worth 1079 1046 902 19.6 3.2

    posits 8788 8320 7137 23.1 5.6

    an 6677 6472 5671 17.7 3.2

    set quality (Rs Cr)

    NPA 235 226 226 4.0 4.0

    A 57 54 38 50.0 5.6

    GNPA 3.5 3.5 4

    NPA 0.9 0.8 0.7

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    DCB

    Source: Eastwind/ Company

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    come Statement 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

    terest Income 459 536 717 916 1090 1279

    terest Expense 317 347 489 632 963 1089

    I 142 189 228 284 127 190

    hange (%) -28.2 33.6 20.4 24.9 -55.3 49.1

    on Interest Income 107 112 100 117 145 145

    otal Income 249 301 328 401 272 334

    hange (%) -21.6 21.2 8.9 22.4 -32.3 23.0

    perating Expenses 201 215 244 275 177 207

    e Provision Profits 48 86 84 126 95 127

    hange (%) -36.5 79.9 -2.6 50.5 -24.5 33.5

    ovisions 121 57 29 24 0 0

    BT -73 29 55 102 95 127

    AT -79 21 55 102 95 127

    hange (%) -10.1 -127.2 157.1 85.3 -6.7 33.5

    alance Sheet

    eposits( Rs Cr) 4787 5610 6336 8364 9618 11061

    hange (%) 3 17 13 32 15 15

    which CASA Dep 1693 1975 2035 2272 2597 1825

    hange (%) 17 17 3 12 14 -30

    orrowings( Rs Cr) 504 861 1123 1526 1697 1952

    vestments( Rs Cr) 2018 2295 2518 3359 2886 3318

    ans( Rs Cr) 3460 4271 5284 6586 7903 9484

    hange (%) 6 23 24 25 20 20

    atio

    vg. Yield on loans 10.4 9.4 10.1 10.8 9.7 9.7

    vg. Yield on Investments 4.7 5.8 6.9 5.8 6.8 6.8

    vg. Cost of Deposit 5.9 5.2 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.9

    vg. Cost of Borrowimgs 6.8 6.4 7.2 6.4 6.0 6.0

    aluation

    ook Value 30 31 36 40 44 49

    MP 32.2 45.9 45 45 57.3 57.3BV 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2

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    Infosys

    How do we see the impacts of this buzz?

    1M 1yr YTD

    solute 4.1 52.1 27.2

    l. to Nifty -0.3 44.9 23.3

    Current 4QFY13 3QFY13

    omoters 16.04 16.04 16.04

    40.52 40.55 39.42

    17.51 18.7 18.33

    hers 25.93 24.71 26.21

    Financials2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%

    Revenue 12965 11267 15.07 9858 31.5

    EBITDA 2836.9 2664 6.49 2597 9.2

    PAT 2406.9 2374 1.39 2369 1.6

    EBITDA Margin 21.9% 23.6% (170bps) 26.3% (440bps

    PAT Margin 18.6% 21.1% (250bps) 24.0% (540bps

    (b) V Balakrsihnansresignation is not one night decision and not an affect of intern

    hiccups. Post declaration of his resignation V Balakrishnan stated to media itwas m

    long term plan and we were waiting for SEBI approval for my new Private Equity firm

    Even, he sold 1,00,000 shares in the company for Rs 33 crore in the open market on

    Nov 2013 (50,000 shares each held by his daughters), it indicates its earlier decisio

    Therefore, we think Balas exit is a part of an ongoing strategy to reshuffle the t

    management at Infosys.

    (c) The top management conundrum has not been new to Infosys. Even, as Infosy

    hyper-growth story played out over the course of three decades, powered by not just

    seven cofounders but also several talented employees that came on later on. Even, mo

    of company founders have churned out and company has been working for growth sto

    and committing for strategy 3.0.

    are Holding Pattern-%

    year forward P/E

    Rs, Cro

    (Source: Company/Eastwi

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    (d) Post Narayana Murthy, company has committed for future transformational chang

    and next generation growth plan. Recently, the company has undertaken a clear shift

    direction where it has been focusing on higher-margin businesses, a strategy that riv

    TCS that has successfully implemented.

    For near term, there could be some small sort of rally on the stock because of this kn

    jerk and as the December quarter is generally expected to be a bit tepid for t

    technology sector. Although, the street will forget all things after a good quart

    earnings or a strong commentary on the business outlook. For long term, we do n

    see any major pressure because of cos poster boy exit.

    Bala exit; a pros and cons?

    MP 3486

    rget Price 3622

    ompany update BUY Does Balakrishnan departure from Infosys would affect the companys bread a

    butter?

    Last week, V Balakrishnan a former CFO and member of Board director resigned fro

    the company to turn entrepreneur of Private Equity space. Currently, he is the headInfosys business process outsourcing unit, the company's core banking softwa

    Finacle, its India business and chairman of Infosys Lodestone. This was now the

    senior and top level departure after the taking charges by Company founder Naraya

    Murthy.arket Data

    ock Performance

    160944

    (a) We think, there would not be any major impact on qualitative and quantitative sen

    and company would not see any major gap between sales executives and clients. Ythe magnitude of the exits could create a leadership vacuum. However, very so

    company will try to turn into smoothie organization structure.

    evious Target Price 3390side 4%

    E Code 500209

    kt Capital (Rs Crores)

    erage Daily Volume 1240448

    fty 6268

    E Symbol INFY

    ange from Previous 7%

    Behind the top-level departure, only one cause reflects on the picture that is the tus

    of CEO post. Current CEO Shibulal is going to complete its tenure by next yea

    Among the front-runner of this post, Balakrishnan was strong contender for the po

    of CEO race.

    wk Range H/L 3570/2190

    "BUY"26th Dec' 13

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

  • 8/13/2019 Reduced Stock with Price Target of Rs.66 of Andhra Banks - India Equity Analytics today

    20/21

    onsidering the revised guidance by management and its growth priority than margin

    ching up strategy, we are positive on the stock. At a CMP of Rs 3486, it trades at 19.2x

    Y14E and 16.7x FY15E earnings. We retain our BUY view on the stock with a target

    ice of target price of Rs 3622.

    Infos s.

    iew and Valuation:fosys seems to be on its way to rediscovering its past mojo with revenue momentum

    cking, its past strategy of under-promising and over delivering - remember present

    idance now factors flat gorwth in next 2 qtrs, and the NRN invisible hand in play.

    rther announcement of strategic acquisitions, better utilization of cash balances, ramp-

    p in sales investment ,better deal win, consistent client traction and revenue

    omentum would help the company to bridge the gap with rivals such as TCS and HCL

    ch.

    Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

    nancials

    (Source: Company/Eastwind)

    Narnolia Securities Ltd,

    s in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

    ales, INR 22742 27501 33734 40352 48659.6 55939.

    mployee Cost 12085 14856 18340 22565 27736.0 32165.

    Other expenses 2792 3677 4671 6254 7785.5 9230.0

    otal Expenses 14877 18533 23011 28819 35521.5 41395.

    BITDA 7865 8968 10723 11533 13138.1 14544.

    epreciation 905 854 928 1099 1325.3 1523.5

    Other Income 982 1211 1904 2365 2433.0 3356.4

    BIT 7942 9325 11699 12799 14245.8 16377.

    nterest Cost 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0

    BT 7942 9325 11699 12799 14245.8 16377.

    ax 1681 2490 3367 3370 3846.4 4421.8

    AT 6261 6835 8332 9429 10399.4 11955.

    rowth-%

    ales 4.8% 20.9% 22.7% 19.6% 20.6% 15.0%

    BITDA 9.3% 14.0% 19.6% 7.6% 13.9% 10.7%

    AT 4.6% 9.2% 21.9% 13.2% 10.3% 15.0%

    Margin -%

    BITDA 34.6% 32.6% 31.8% 28.6% 27.0% 26.0%

    BIT 34.9% 33.9% 34.7% 31.7% 29.3% 29.3%

    AT 27.5% 24.9% 24.7% 23.4% 21.4% 21.4%

    xpenses on Sales-%

    mployee Cost 53.1% 54.0% 54.4% 55.9% 57.0% 57.5%

    Other expenses 12.3% 13.4% 13.8% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5%

    ax rate 21.2% 26.7% 28.8% 26.3% 27.0% 27.0%

    aluation

    MP 2615.1 2765.1 2865.0 2400.0 3486 3486

    o of Share 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4

    W 23049.0 25976.0 31332.0 37994.0 45236.1 53832.

    PS 109.1 119.0 145.1 164.2 181.1 208.2

    VPS 401.7 452.4 545.6 661.7 787.8 937.5

    oE-% 27.2% 26.3% 26.6% 24.8% 23.0% 22.2%

    ividen Payout ratio 25.1% 45.9% 24.0% 45.1% 23.8% 20.7%

    /BV 6.5 6.1 5.3 3.6 4.4 3.7

    /E 24.0 23.2 19.7 14.6 19.2 16.7

  • 8/13/2019 Reduced Stock with Price Target of Rs.66 of Andhra Banks - India Equity Analytics today

    21/21

    Narnolia Securities Ltd

    402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lord s Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph

    033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000

    email: [email protected],website : www.narnolia.com

    Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of

    the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation

    advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any

    action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been

    furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or

    redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly

    available information, findings of our research wing East wind& information that we

    consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not

    provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to changewithout notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,

    should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that

    past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of

    any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to

    assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates

    and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or

    otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and

    other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned

    in this report/message.