reducing canada's vulnerability to climate change - ess j28 earth science for national action...
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Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Canada Water Accounts
• AET estimates for typical land cover classes over point locations with sufficient long term records of climate data. – Historical run based on observations 1960-2000– Projections based on 3 IPCC models x 3 IPCC
scenarios• AET estimates for all sub-sub-basins in Canada.
1960-2000– Historical run based on observations 1960-2000– Projections based on 3 IPCC models x 3 IPCC
scenarios• http://132.156.21.53:8080/reseau/servlet/LoadAll
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Spatial Sampling and Modelling Domain
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
e.g. Province of Alberta
Method Precipitation P Inflow I ET ET/ (P+I)
EALCO 1960-1995 (no inflow) 480mm/yr 0mm/yr 260mm/yr 54%
EALCO 1960-1995 + inflows 480mm/yr 106mm/yr 380mm/yr 65%
Alberta Environment water balance 509mm/yr 106mm/yr 390mm/yr 63%
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Basic Definitions
• Evapotranspiration ET – net water exchange between land or water surface and atmosphere.
• Transpiration T – net water exchange from within vegetation.
• Evaporation E = ET – T
• Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) - ET from a hypothetical grass reference crop with specific characteristics no short of water.
• “The use of other denominations such as potential ET is strongly discouraged due to ambiguities in their definitions. “http://www.fao.org/docrep/X0490E/x0490e04.htm#evaporation
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
EALCO Land Surface ModelWang S.,et al. 2002a, Climatic Change, 55: 451-477
Model initialization data
Input parameters (Remote sensing geospatial data)
0.5 hourly meteo-forcings
Model Output (0.5 hourly water balance components)
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Satellite EO Inputs
LAI: 49.9N 97.23W - annual graminoid,
53.83N 89.87W - open evergreen forest, 55.8N 98.87W - closed evergreen forest
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
JD 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205 215 225 235 245 255 265 275
julian day
LA
I14996_Annual Graminoid15806_Open C. Forest15919_Closed C. Forest
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
CWEEDS DATA GAPS (%hours missed)
Mean Annual Precipitation (1961-1990) [mm/year]
Canadian Weather Energy & Engineering Data Sets (CWEEDS)Hourly Rain, Snow, Insolation, Temp, Humidity, Pressure for 1960-2000.
In-situ EO Input
Canadian Daily Climate Data (CDCD) stations:
Daily observations of
Total Precipitation and
Air Temperature
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Gridded In-situ EO
NCEP NARR, Precip., 85 March 10, 06:00
NCAR Regional Reanalysis 2
3-Hourly 30km
Rain, Snow, Insolation, Temp,
Humidity, Pressure, wind for 1960-2000.
Climate Research Unit East Anglia Gridded Analysis
Monthly 0.5 degree
Rain, Snow, Insolation, Temp,
Humidity, Pressure,wind for 1960-2000.
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
GCP Scenario Runs
• 3 GCM Models run over 3 IPCC 4AR scenarios
• Models: CGCM, Hadley, NCAR
• Scenarios– SRESA1 – business as usual– SRES A2 – moderate mitigation; – SRES B1 - aggressive mitigation
• Monthly difference fields observed to baseline datasets. No spatial downscaling.
• Baseline year taken randomly from 5 “climatalogically” most similar years.
• Some issues with suitability of scenario runs.
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Historical Trends in ET at Points
Slope of modelled annual ET relative to 1960-2000 Mean Modelled ET.
Dominant land cover LAI soils.
Mann-Kendall significance of modelled annual ET trends 1960-2000.
Dominant land cover LAI soils.
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Regional Historical Trends in ET
Climate zone average of modelled annual AET anomalies.
Dominant land cover LAI soils.
Assumes input from precipitation only (no net inflow)
Impact of CO2 on AET Trendsy = 1.065x + 0.059
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1
1.4
-0.2 0.2 0.6 1 1.4
Trend in Annual ET (mm/yr) Variable CO2
Tre
nd
in A
nn
ual E
T (m
m/y
r)
Mean
CO
2
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Projected Trends in AETET at 51.25N 100.25W, S.Manitoba,
close canopy evergreen forest
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
year
mm
/ye
ar
SRESA1/cccma_cgcm3 SRESA1/ncar_ccsm3_
SRESA1/ukmo_hadcm3 Baseline OBSERVATIONS
ET at 56.25N 111.25W ,Fort McMurray area, open canopy evergreen forest
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
year
mm
/ye
ar
SRESA1\cccma_cgcm3 SRESA1\ncar_ccsm3_SRESA1\ukmo_hadcm3 Baseline OBSERVATIONS
ET at 51.25N 100.25W, Dauphin/S.Manitoba, cropland
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
year
mm
/ye
ar
SRESA1/cccma_cgcm3 SRESA1/ncar_ccsm3_
SRESA1/ukmo_hadcm3 Baseline OBSERVATIONS
ET at 56.75N 111.25W ,Fort McMurray, cropland
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
year
mm
/ye
ar
SRESA1/cccma_cgcm3 SRESA1/ncar_ccsm3_SRESA1/ukmo_hadcm3 Baseline OBSERVATIONS
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Priestley-Taylor ET and ealco ET driven by SRESA1 HadCM3 scenario and baseline Observations
(56.25N 111.25W, Fort McMurray area, open canopy evergreen forest)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
year
mm
/ye
ar
P-T ET scenario P-T ET baseline
ealco scenario ealco baseline
Thornthwaite ET scenario Thornthwaite ET baseline
TRENDS [mm/year]
-0.10
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.7
baseline 2001-2100period
PT ETealco ETTrnt ET
Priestley-Taylor ET and ealco ET driven by SRESA1 HadCM3 scenario and baseline Observations (51.75N 100.75W, S.Manitoba, closed canopy evergreen forest)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
year
mm
/yea
r
PT ET scenario PT ET baseline
ealco ET scenario ealco baseline
Thornthwaite ET scenario Thornthwaite ET baseline
Priestley-Taylor ET and ealco ET driven by SRESA1 HadCM3 scenario and baseline Observations
(56.75N 111.25W, Fort McMurray, cropland)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
year
mm
/ye
ar
PT ET scenario
P-T ET baseline
ealco ET scenario
ealco ET baseline
Thornthwaite ET scenario
Thornthwaite ET baseline
TRENDS [mm/year]
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.7
baseline 2001-2100
period
PT ETealco ETTrnt ET
Priestley-Taylor ET and ealco ET driven by SRESA1 HadCM3 scenario and baseline Observations
(51.25N 100.25W, Duffin/S.Manitoba, cropland)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
year
mm
/yea
r
PT ET scenario
PT ET baseline
ealco ET scenario
ealco ET baseline
Thornthwaite ET scenario
Thornthwaite ET baseline
Comparison to Diagnostic Models
Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSJ28 Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change
Uncertainty Due to Scenarios and IPCC Models is Large
53.75N 90.25W, NW Ontario, open canopy evergreen forest
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
year
mm
/ye
ar
SRESA1/cccma_cgcm3 SRESA1/ncar_ccsm3_ SRESA1/ukmo_hadcm3
SRESA2/cccma_cgcm3 SRESA2/ncar_ccsm3_ SRESA2/ukmo_hadcm3
SRESB1/cccma_cgcm3 SRESB1/ncar_ccsm3_ SRESB1/ukmo_hadcm3
baseline OBSERVATIONS