Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest

Degradation (REDD):Will Trees Grow on Money?”

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest

Degradation (REDD):Will Trees Grow on Money?”

Frances SeymourDirector General

Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)

Bogor, May 12, 2008

Frances SeymourDirector General

Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)

Bogor, May 12, 2008

Presentation outline:Presentation outline:

• What is CIFOR?• Why do forests

matter?• REDD – What’s the

big idea?• REDD challenges

ahead

• What is CIFOR?• Why do forests

matter?• REDD – What’s the

big idea?• REDD challenges

ahead

A quick introduction to CIFOR:A quick introduction to CIFOR:

•One of 15 centers in the CGIAR

•Headquarters in Indonesia and staff based in Brazil, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Zambia

•Research activities in more than 40 countries throughout the tropics

•One of 15 centers in the CGIAR

•Headquarters in Indonesia and staff based in Brazil, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Zambia

•Research activities in more than 40 countries throughout the tropics

CIFOR’s global research agenda:CIFOR’s global research agenda:

• Forests and climate change mitigation (REDD)

• Forests and adaptation to climate change

• Small-scale and community forestry

• Conservation and development at landscape scale

• Impacts of trade and investment on forests

• Sustainable management of production forests

• Forests and climate change mitigation (REDD)

• Forests and adaptation to climate change

• Small-scale and community forestry

• Conservation and development at landscape scale

• Impacts of trade and investment on forests

• Sustainable management of production forests

Why do forests matter?Why do forests matter?

Example of Indonesia:• 3-4% of gross domestic product (forestry, wood

products, paper)• One-fifth of the industrial sector• 9% of total export value• > $50 million/year NTFPs exports (rattan, resins)• 600,000 formal sector jobs (of which one-third

furniture)

Example of Indonesia:• 3-4% of gross domestic product (forestry, wood

products, paper)• One-fifth of the industrial sector• 9% of total export value• > $50 million/year NTFPs exports (rattan, resins)• 600,000 formal sector jobs (of which one-third

furniture)

Forests are significant for national economies

Forests are significant for national economies

Forests matter for biodiversity

Borneo < 1% of the earth’s land areaBorneo < 1% of the earth’s land area

6% of the world’s Flowering plant species Bird species Mammal species

6% of the world’s Flowering plant species Bird species Mammal species

15,430 plant records > 2,100 species

3,642 specific uses 1,449 species

119 non-substitutable

Forest biodiversity is important to local people

Field survey results(200 plots in East Kalimantan):

Field survey results(200 plots in East Kalimantan):

Forests are important for ecosystem servicesForests are important for ecosystem services

• Up to 80 % of primary energy needs met from wood fuels

• Up to 80 % of primary energy needs met from wood fuels

Forests are important for energyForests are important for energy

Bushmeat provides an important source of protein for AIDS orphans in sub-Saharan Africa

Bushmeat provides an important source of protein for AIDS orphans in sub-Saharan Africa

Forests provide safety nets for vulnerable individuals and communities

Forests provided an important source of income during the 1997-98 financial crisis in Indonesia

Forests provided an important source of income during the 1997-98 financial crisis in Indonesia

Forests are important to human health

• clean water• nutritious food• traditional medicine• disease control

• Climate change is likely to bring a higher probability of high intensity rainfall events, which in turn increase the risk of landslides

• Maintenance of forest vegetation can help stabilize the slope for some types of land movement

• Climate change is likely to bring a higher probability of high intensity rainfall events, which in turn increase the risk of landslides

• Maintenance of forest vegetation can help stabilize the slope for some types of land movement

Forests are important for climate adaptation

Forests are important for climate mitigation

• Some 20% of global emissions are from forest and landusechange

• Indonesia and Brazil now globally-significant sources of emissions due to deforestation and forest fires

• Some 20% of global emissions are from forest and landusechange

• Indonesia and Brazil now globally-significant sources of emissions due to deforestation and forest fires

Source: Adopted from PEACE (Pelangi Energi Abadi Citra Enviro) report, 2007.

(1,000)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

United States China Indonesia Brazil Russia

MtCO2e

Energy Agriculture Forestry Waste

Significance of forest-based emissions(Among top five emitters)

Significance of forest-based emissions(Among top five emitters)

REDD: What’s the big idea?REDD: What’s the big idea?

“Avoided deforestation” among the cheapest options for emissions mitigation

“Avoided deforestation” among the cheapest options for emissions mitigation

• Bali Action Plan includes “Road map” to incorporating REDD in the global climate protection regime

• Bali Action Plan includes “Road map” to incorporating REDD in the global climate protection regime

Outcomes of UNFCCC COP13Outcomes of UNFCCC COP13

Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation

(REDD)

Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation

(REDD)

| | | | | | 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

C-re

mov

als

(Mto

n)

Compensatedreduction

NationalReference rate

ActualNat. emissions

Compensated reductions below an agreed baseline

Compensated reductions below an agreed baseline

Money may finally grow on trees left

standing

Money may finally grow on trees left

standing

• Assume a baseline of 3 billion tons of carbon emissions per year• Assume a reduction of 20% below the baseline• Assume a price of $5/ton of avoided carbon emissions

• = $3 billion per year

By comparison:•Development aid to the forestry sector in Indonesia over the last two decades = $1 billion cumulative•Loss to the Indonesian economy from “undocumented” timber extraction = $3 billion per year

How much money are we talking about for Indonesia?

How much money are we talking about for Indonesia?

• Research shows much forest conversion provides limited economic return

• In some cases, <$1 per ton of carbon emitted

• Research shows much forest conversion provides limited economic return

• In some cases, <$1 per ton of carbon emitted

Good investments are availableGood investments are available

• Volume of finance sufficient to shift the political economy of drivers of deforestation and degradation

• Political attention and engagement at the national level

• Alignment of the interests of multiple constituencies

• Performance-based finance

Why might REDD succeed?Why might REDD succeed?

Emissions reductions and• improved local livelihoods• improved biodiversity

conservation• improved forest

governance

Emissions reductions and• improved local livelihoods• improved biodiversity

conservation• improved forest

governance

Potential for REDD “win-wins”Potential for REDD “win-wins”

REDD challenges aheadREDD challenges ahead

• Need for “REDD readiness”: governance mechanisms and institutional capacity– To decide on strategy– To measure and monitor

change– To transfer payments

• Need to manage risks and trade-offs

• Need to establish legitimacy– Inclusive process– Equitable outcomes

• Need for “REDD readiness”: governance mechanisms and institutional capacity– To decide on strategy– To measure and monitor

change– To transfer payments

• Need to manage risks and trade-offs

• Need to establish legitimacy– Inclusive process– Equitable outcomes

REDD will require a new level of forest governance

REDD will require a new level of forest governance

• Likely trade-offs between efficiency and equity

• Likely trade-offs between efficiency and equity

Lessons from early Payments for Ecosystems Services (PES) experience: Lessons from early Payments for Ecosystems Services (PES) experience:

• …of leading to human rights violations

• …of making poor people worse off

• …of corruption• …of ineffectiveness

• …of leading to human rights violations

• …of making poor people worse off

• …of corruption• …of ineffectiveness

Need to manage REDD risks…Need to manage REDD risks…

• Concern about market mechanisms

• Concern about risks, especially to indigenous peoples

• Concern about market mechanisms

• Concern about risks, especially to indigenous peoples

REDD is still controversialREDD is still controversial

• Better data and methods• Role of markets• Managing trade-offs

• Better data and methods• Role of markets• Managing trade-offs

Discussions at “Forest Day” illuminated areas for consensus-building and research:Discussions at “Forest Day” illuminated areas for consensus-building and research:

• Indonesia: Led by the Ministry of Forestry in preparation for the Bali COP

• 14 countries have submitted plans to World Bank’s forest carbon facility

• Indonesia: Led by the Ministry of Forestry in preparation for the Bali COP

• 14 countries have submitted plans to World Bank’s forest carbon facility

National REDD processes underwayNational REDD processes underway

http://www.cifor.cgiar.orghttp://www.cifor.cgiar.org