reducing greenhouse gas emissions in hawaii
DESCRIPTION
Denise Konan (Econ Prof at UHM) presents detailed data about the carbon intensity of Hawaii industries and residents, and suggestions on what industries would benefit most from efficiency improvements. Slides from the REIS seminar series at the University of Hawaii at Manoa on 2009-10-08.TRANSCRIPT
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 1
Reducing GreenhouseGas Emissions in Hawai‘i
Denise Eby Konan, Ph.D.Professor, Department of Economics
Director, Center for Sustainable Coastal TourismFellow, UHERO and REIS
Renewable Energy and Island Society October 8, 2009
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 2
Energy in the USA
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2009)
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 3
Renewable Energy in theUSA
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2009)
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 4
Energy Risks
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2009)
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 5
Vulnerable energy security:Energy consumption by source(2007)
Hawaii USA Average
Source: EIA State Energy Data System (2008)
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 6
Figure designed and created by UHERO EGGS
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 7
Hawaii and climate change…
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 8
Climate change threat forHawaii: Sea-Level Rise
Land within 1 ft of high tideImage from Chip Fletcher, Hawaii Mapping Group, SOEST
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 9
Climate change threat toHawaii: Ocean acidification
CO2 going up above the oceanand in the ocean
pH going down in the upperocean - becoming more acidic
Observational results from Station Aloha(Dore et al., 2009)
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 10
Climate change threat toHawaii: Ecosystem collapse
A Pteropod after 48 hours of living low pH ocean conditions (e is acontrol)
Pteropods contribute to the diet of diverse carnivorous zooplankton,myctophid and nototheniid fishes, North Pacific salmon, mackerel,herring, cod and baleen whales.
Source: Orr et al (Nature, 2005)
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 11
Hawaii addressing climate change:ACT 234 - Hawaii’s Global WarmingSolutions Act
Second state in the country toenact GHG regulations – June2007
10 member task forcedeveloping plan to meet 1990GHG levels by 2020
Report GHG work plan toLegislature by end of 2010
Department of Health is incharge
On January 1, 2012: Rules and regulatory scheme go into effect
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 12
Hawaii’s GHG Sources
Chevron Kapolei Refinery (Google Maps)
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 13
Energy & Greenhouse GasSolutions: Mission
To analyze and tailor energy and climatechange policy by assessing technologyoptions and the associated environmentaland economic impacts.
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 14
EGGS: Core Goals1. Engage in rigorous analysis and establish a global
research reputation.2. Develop and maintain data and models on Hawai’i
energy, economy, and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions.
3. Showcase Hawai’i solutions that demonstrate asustainable alternative for others.
4. Develop solution-based education and outreachprograms on energy and GHG solutions for a variety oflevels (legislators, business community, and K-12).
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 15
Hawaii GHG Profile: 1990 and 2005(report available on our website)
Amount of GHG Emission (MMTCO2E)Amount of GHG Emission (MMTCO2E) 19901990 20052005Energy 23.232 24.161 Stationary Energy Sources 10.163 10.854
Electric Power Sector 6.804 8.362Residential Energy Sector 0.350 0.330Commercial Energy Sector 0.762 0.287Industrial Energy Sector 2.246 1.874
Mobile Energy Sources 13.069 13.307Air Transportation Sector 7.487 5.991Ground Transportation Sector 3.666 5.601Marine Transportation Sector 1.916 1.715
Non-Energy Sources 1.456 2.269 Industrial Processes Sector 0.197 0.844 Agriculture Sector 0.634 0.453 Waste 0.625 0.972
Grand TotalGrand Total 24.68724.687 26.43026.430
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 16
Hawaii GHG Profile:Biggest changes since 1990
%GHGemissionschangecontribu3onbysector
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 17
Ground Transportation GHG Emissions:Total, and Per Capita
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 18
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MT CO2E Per Capita)
6.6
0.7
2.0 1.5
6.7
4.7
3.3
4.4
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.8
6.1
0.30.30.2
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
1990 2005
Non-Energy Sources
Marine Transportation Sector
Ground Transportation Sector
Air Transportation Sector
Industrial Energy Sector
Commercial Energy Sector
Residential Energy Sector
Electric Power Sector
MTCO2E per Capita
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 19
GHG Emissions Accounting:An example equation
CO2 emissions = Af,h * Fc,h * Fox* (44/12) Af,h : heat content of fuel consumed (GJ converted from
therms or million BTU) Fc,h : Carbon content of fuel on a heating value basis (15.3
kg C/GJ) Fox : Oxidation factor to account for fraction of carbon in
fuel that remains as soot or ash (44/12) : Ratio of the molecular weight of CO2 to that of
carbon
Source: WRI GHG Protocol
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 20
Hawaii GHG ProfileConclusions
Act 234 emissions have increased by about 23% from 1990 to 2005
Per dollar output, Hawai‘i is more GHG intensivein 2005 than in 1990 although per capita is down
Power and transport account for about 70% ofall GHG emissions
Ground transportation contributes about 20percent and is growing rapidly
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 21
EGGS Modeling:New publication
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 22
Rationale:Tourism’s Role in Hawaii’s Economy
$11.4 billion, in 2008 $1,700 per person, per
trip spending 18% of Gross State
Product, current dollars 10% of all civilian jobs
Statewide in 2003 6.8 million visitor arrivals 64 million visitor days High stakes for Hawaii
economyDBEDT2008HawaiiDataBook
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 23
Data and methods:Data sources
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 24
Data and Methods:Economic data - 131 economicsectors
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 25
….AndEnergyDataData and Methods:Detailed Energy Data
Industry
Coal
(MBTU)
Other Oil
Products
(MBTU)
Aviation
Gasoline
(MBTU)
Gasoline
(MBTU)
Diesel
(MBTU)
Jet Fuel
(MBTU)
LPG
(MBTU)
Residual
Fuel Oil
(MBTU)
Sugarcane 0 0 0 12,389 43,038 0 28 0
Vegetables 0 0 0 3,644 12,661 0 8 0
Macadamia nuts 0 0 0 17,723 61,569 0 39 0
Pineapples 0 0 0 26,375 91,625 0 59 0
Other fruits 0 0 0 7,768 26,987 0 17 0
Coffee 0 0 0 20,128 69,924 0 45 0
Greenhouse and nursery products 0 0 0 6,443 22,383 0 14 0
Dairy cattle and milk production 0 0 0 2,930 10,180 0 7 0
Poultry and eggs 0 0 0 1,798 6,245 0 4 0
Cattle Ranching 0 0 0 1,140 3,959 0 3 0
Hog and pig farming 0 0 0 431 1,498 0 1 0
Misc. livestock 0 0 0 508 1,764 0 1 0
Aquaculture 0 0 0 2,447 8,500 0 5 0
Other agricultural products 0 0 0 4,834 16,792 0 11 0
Commercial fishing 0 0 0 5,296 1,246,826 0 0 0
Support activities for agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 426 0
Landscape services 0 0 0 6,575 2,565 0 0 0
Mining 0 0 0 9,943 54,415 0 0 0
Single family housing construction 0 916,811 0 44,620 227,727 0 9,649 4,207
Multiple family housing construction 0 513,771 0 27,071 138,162 0 0 2,553
Commercial building construction 0 2,592,832 0 129,681 661,851 0 18,154 12,228
Hotel construction 0 260,656 0 12,732 64,980 0 2,623 1,201
Road construction 0 2,129,614 0 110,110 561,968 0 5,497 10,383
Other construction 0 468,631 0 24,693 126,023 0 0 2,328
Maintenance & repair construction 0 1,179,340 0 62,140 317,144 0 0 5,859
Fruit and vegetable product mfg 0 118,336 0 11,799 4,603 0 9,385 0
Sugar mfg 0 2,705,837 0 4,252 95,478 0 0 984,860
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 26
Methods:Input-Output Tables
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 27
Economic output andexpenditures ($ million)
Industry OutputHousehold
expendituresVisitor's
expenditures
Accommodations 12,496.2 5,424.1 3,892.2Restaurants 2,274.7 1,036.5 1,126.2Trade 6,311.9 2,979.9 1,464.8Entertainment 844.2 234.7 569.4
Golf 229.8 108.4 141.3
Air Transportation 2,044.1 337.5 1,555.6Transportation 1,464.8 408.9 545.2
Agriculture 823.5 131.5 18.4
Construction 3,524.3 - -
Manufacturing 3,416.4 685.8 101.4
Services 15,181.0 8,018.4 573.4
Utilities 1,691.0 595.3 -
Government 8,565.8 264.9 45.6
Total 58,867.6 20,225.9 10,033.5
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 28
Industry output in Hawaii
IndustryOutput
($ million) OutputCompensation of
employees
Accommodations 12,496.2 21.2% 7.8%
Restaurants 2,274.7 3.9% 3.7%
Trade 6,311.9 10.7% 11.1%
Entertainment 844.2 1.4% 1.4%
Golf 229.8 0.4% 0.4%
Air Transportation 2,044.1 3.5% 2.4%
Transportation 1,464.8 2.5% 1.7%
Agriculture 823.5 1.4% 1.3%
Construction 3,524.3 6.0% 5.8%
Manufacturing 3,416.4 5.8% 2.4%
Services 15,181.0 25.8% 27.2%
Utilities 1,691.0 2.9% 1.6%
Government 8,565.8 14.6% 33.2%
Total 58,867.6 100.0% 100.0%
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 29
Methods:Calculating GHGs from directand indirect demand Total demand vector (X) is function of intermediate and final
demand (Y), A is matrix of technical coefficients X = ( I - A)-1 Y
Fuel requirements matrix (F X) defined as gallons by fuel typeassociated with final demand YF X = F ( I - A)-1 Y
Energy intensity matrix total fuel required to produce onedollars worth of final demand in each sector (Yi = 1)
Emissions intensity matrix total GHG emissions associatedwith one dollars worth of final demand
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 30
The top ten economic sectors’direct GHG emission - metrictons CO2E
Industry Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide
Electricity 6,806,708.60 4,351.14 3,519.44
Air transportation 3,636,808.12 2,561.97 287.12
Utility gas 242,704.95 101.66 52,356.48
Construction 229,037.92 261.28 1,142.56
Hotels 184,796.88 175.03 11,647.60
Other services 152,312.61 105.57 204.24
Petroleum manuf. 147,339.04 256.68 2.96
Restaurants 135,693.90 124.66 9,620.00
Health services 134,887.81 145.59 2,148.96
Finance business 123,613.35 138.69 139.12
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 31
Ranking Carbon Intensity:metric tons CO2E / $ million
Electricity 7,179.7 Chemical manufacturing 232.9Utility gas 2,680.2 Parking lots 226.7Air transportation 1,771.8 Automobile rental 225.8Commercial fishing 1,484.3 Waste management 225.3Petroleum manufacturing 765.2 Construction and mining 224.6Sightseeing transport 443.2 Crops 214.3Transit 405.3 Other manufacturing 209.4Ground transportation 400.6 Animal 202.0Recreation 378.3 Clothing manufacturing 182.9Food processing 378.1 Health services 178.6Golf courses 363.0 Travel reservations 165.4Laundry 345.0 Education private 122.5Hotels 337.0 Retail trade 106.6Other services 326.4 Wholesale trade 93.5Trucking 291.4 Information 85.3Water sewer 286.9 Real estate rental 81.9Water transportation 285.8 Landscaping services 75.0Restaurants 273.8 Finance business 73.8Amusement 271.5 Performing arts 68.1Museums historical 254.4 Other government 29.9
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 32
Summary table: Resident and visitorenergy and GHG emissions
Energy, trillion BTU
GHG emissionsMMTCO2e
Total 323.3 23.4 Resident 126.4 9.3 Visitor 72.9 5.2 Visitor less air 33.5 2.4
Per annum MBTU GHG metric tons Resident 104 7.7 Visitor 464 32.9 Visitor less air 213 15.4 Per capita 267 19.3Visitor factor 4.4 4.3Visitor factor less air 2.0 2.0
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 33
Summary GHG Emissionsof Tourism 22% of Hawaii’s total
emissions 5.2 million metric tons of
CO2 equiv
Per Capita Tourist: 33 metric tons
Resident: 7.7 metric tons
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 34
Future research
Endogenous emissions built into a dynamiccomputable general equilibrium model ofHawaii’s economy
Waikiki district benchmarking and analysis Model carbon tax, cap and trade, command
and control policy options for the State Assess economic and environmental impacts
of alternative scenarios
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 35
Carbon savings per 1% gasoline conservation
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 36
Carbon savings per 1% electricity conservation
Givesoutrageousinsighttoeconomicandenvironmentsolu9on
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 37
Get into theSolution
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 38
Hawaii Clean EnergyInitiative
h>p://www.hawaiicleanenergyini3a3ve.org/
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 39
Hawaii Energy Options:Just a few!
Wind
Sea Water Air Conditioning (SWAC)Solar
Wave EnergyHawaii Clean Energy Initiative
OceanlinxOceanlinx
HECO
Honolulu Sea Water Air Conditioning
October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 40
Thank you to our sponsorsand partners!
Michael Saalfeld Pierre and Pamela Omidyar Fund at the Hawaii Community
Foundation Hawaii State Department of Health Hawaii Natural Energy Institute Renewable Energy and Island Sustainability International Center for Climate and Society UHM Outreach College