referendum baseline public opinion poll july 2010

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Steadman now Synovate

Referendum Baseline Public Opinion Poll

July 2010

Date Published: 23rd July 2010

Methodology

3Referendum Baseline Poll July 2010© Synovate 2010 Steadman now Synovate

Objective of the Survey

The objective of the survey was to assess voters’ views on issues regarding the draft

constitution including: sources of information about it, the position of religious leaders,

and possible violence. The results should contribute to a deeper understanding of the

processes of public opinion formation and decision-making by ordinary Kenyans and

inform responses to challenges in the post-referendum environment.


Poll Methodology

Dates of pollingDates of polling July 11th – July 17th

Sample SizeSample Size 6005 respondents

Sampling methodologySampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS

UniverseUniverseRecently registered voters by IIEC

Data collection Data collection methodologymethodology

Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Sampling errorSampling error +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level


Sample Distribution

Province National Population distribution (over 18 years)

Distribution of registered voters (IIEC Register)

Survey Sample distribution

Nairobi 10% 10% 10%

Central 14% 16% 16%

Coast 9% 8% 8%

Eastern 16% 16% 16%

North Eastern 3% 2% 2%

Nyanza 14% 14% 14%

Rift Valley 24% 24% 24%

Western 11% 11% 11%

Familiarity with the proposed Draft


Base: n=6005 (All Respondents)

“Have you checked the Voters’ register to make sure your name is there?” By Total



“Are you planning to go and vote?” By Total



Motivation for voting: By Total


Base: ‘YES’ Voters (All Respondents)

Motivation for voting: By ‘Yes’ voters


Base: ‘NO’ Voters’(All Respondents)

Motivation for voting: By ‘No’ voters



“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” By Total



“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” By Gender & Setting



“How much do you know about the draft constitution?” By Province


Base: n=5979 (Those who know at least something about the constitution)

“From which sources have you learnt something about the proposed constitution?”


Base: By those with two or more sources of information.

Usefulness of main sources of information: By much/only some information.


“Would you say the information you obtained was balanced to both sides or biased?” (Base: Those who attended a workshop/forum)

Views on the draft



“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”


Base: those who have made up their minds

“When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution?”


Base: n=1321 (those will vote NO)

Reasons why you would vote against the proposed constitution


“Do you/your family have anxieties about the security of your land if the draft constitution is ratified?” By Total and Province (Base = those who own land)


% Indicating will vote ‘yes to approve’

Support for the draft by the level of familiarity

Base: those indicated will vote Yes to approve

Support for the draft by support for political personalities and political parties



“If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for if that person was a presidential candidate?”


Base: Supporters of each personality

Support for the draft by political personalities followers.

Supporters of Yes to approve No to reject Undecided

May July May July May July

Raila Odinga 74% 82% 8% 7% 17% 11%

Mwai Kibaki 57% 61% 13% 14% 30% 25%

Martha Karua 53% 54% 17% 21% 31% 25%

Uhuru Kenyatta 50% 59% 25% 20% 25% 20%

Kalonzo Musyoka 44% 49% 26% 29% 31% 21%

William Ruto 10% 12% 68% 73% 22% 14%



“Which political party do you feel closest to?”


Base: Supporters of each Party

Support for the draft by political parties followers.


Support for the draft by Provinces.

Base: Supporters of each Party

Religious leaders and the draft



“Should religious leaders take sides, either “YES” or “No” on the constitutional referendum?”



“Have your religious leaders taken sides on the Draft Constitution, whether ‘Yes’ or ‘No’?”


Base: n=3434 (Those who know that their religious leaders have taken a position)

“Which side is your LOCAL religious leadership supporting?”


Voters’ intentions in relation to their local religious leaders’ position

Present Occurrence and Future Concerns of Violence


“How likely do you think there will be violence in your locality related to the campaigns for an against the draft constitution?” By Total, Province


Some current affairs issues


“Do you support the proposed increase in salaries and benefits for MPs?” By Total


“Do you support the price control bill passed by MPs?” By Total

Useful Illustrations


Geographical distribution of ‘Yes’ and ‘No”


Regional profile of ‘Yes’ and ‘No’

Share of the ‘YES’ support by province

Share of the ‘NO’ support by province


Assumptions

The results of this opinion poll assume:

1.That there will be equal voter turnout from both the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ side

2.That there will be no significant change in political alliances before the referendum

3.That once the undecided group finally make up their minds, their support will distribute equally between the ‘NO’ and ‘YES’ side.

4.That the electoral process will be accurately reflect the voting behaviour


Some Key observations

• There is notable high level of confidence in this democratic process as demonstrated by the high levels of desire to turnout and vote.

• Further, voters are motivated to turn out and vote by the high desire for better governance and need to excise ones democratic right by way of voting for/against that what they feel best for themselves and the country

• We also report significantly high levels of voters card validation- which is a clear response to messages by the IIEC.

• The diminishing levels of indecisiveness and increase levels of supporters following their respective political leaders position is a clear demonstration of the impact of the ongoing campaigns.

• Further, the ongoing civic education and campaigns have increased levels of familiarity with proposed constitution

• There are notable levels of cohesion and tolerance as demonstrated by the very low levels of tensions or predictions of violence.

• The voters are also fairly tolerant of the religious leaders taking positions which do not necessarily match their own

• finally, the yes side has a clear majority, in fact, based on those who have made up their mind nearly three quarters would vote in favour of the proposed draft.


The target population for this survey was all Kenyans who have recently registered with the IIEC as voters. A sample size of 6005

respondents was drawn and distributed across the country based on the voters register by regions as per the IIEC. The sample was

distributed across 71 districts.

The maximum margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 1.6 % margin at 95%

confidence level. A randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensured that

districts with a higher voter population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation.

The interviews were done face to face at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random

sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control. These face-to-face in-home interviews

are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions .

The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected

within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in

the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member

randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member

selection.

The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll

questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is

no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork

Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the

field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

Poll Methodology


For further details Please contact:

George Waititu

Tel: + 254 20 4450 196

Mobile: +254 722206980

George.waititu@synovate .com

referendum baseline public opinion poll july 2010

Documents

referendum baseline

postreferendum environment

draft constitution

voters views

proposed draft

proposed constitution

ordinary kenyans

household levelsampling