refueling in winnipeg: how long & how often?
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Refueling in Winnipeg: How Long & How Often?. PHEV Recharging and Vehicle Refueling. What is the connection? Why are we studying petroleum refueling habits? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Refueling in Winnipeg:How Long & How Often?
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PHEV Recharging and Vehicle Refueling
• What is the connection? Why are we studying petroleum refueling habits?
• Because we are working under the assumption that drivers will want to
change their current behavior as little as possible – we think that recharging could
be as convenient as refueling.
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Method
• Using AUTO-21 data from the University of Winnipeg Otto driving study – 44 million data points from 76 drivers over 1 year, at 1
second intervals
• Determining the ‘refueling events’ – how can we tell if someone is putting gasoline in their vehicle? Criterion: – Stopped for 1-30 minutes– Parked in a gas station, mapped in ArcMap– At least one day apart
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Problems??
• Data error in the original data set– Multi-path error in the GPS data– Gas Stations are almost all under a roof!
• Non-refueling events occurring at gas stations– Gas stations may have associated convenience
shops– For example, one volunteer maked 51 stops 3 days or
less apart from each other!• Smokes, slurpees, work related?
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Some Stations have well fitting refueling stopswhere the stops are obviously refueling stops.
Other stations have points which weremore ambiguous.
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RESULTS!
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How long do we refuel for?
• Duration of refueling events measured in minutes
• Histogram of refueling durations produced and the questions arising…– No one-minute refueling stops?– Peak at 4 minutes– Most stops < 10 minutes
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Frequency of Stops by Length of Refueling stop
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Length of Stop (minutes)
Fre
qu
ency
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How Often Do We Refuel?
• Measured in Days Between Refueling Events (DBRE)
• About equally likely to refuel for each of the first 10 days, then less likely for each day after that.
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Cumulative Probability of Refueling as a Function of DBREy = -0.0017x2 + 0.0747x - 0.0446
R2 = 0.998
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1 6 11 16
DBRE
Cum
ulat
ive
Pro
babi
lity
The probability of refueling after x days (on the x-axis) is well-described as a function of DBRE alone: 99.8% of the time, the probability of refueling after x days is
PR = -0.0017(x^2) + 0.0747x – 0.0446
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Can Recharging be similar to Refueling?
• Mean Refueling Time in Winnipeg: 4.971 minutes
• MINIMUM Recharging Time with Level 2 – 240V, 30A – Recharging Infrastructure (for an economy-sized sedan with a battery capable of powering the vehicle 16km) : 30 minutes
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PHEV Level 3 Recharging Stations
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Charging
• Level 3 Charging is not a viable option, according to the US Government’s Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Review
• Level 2 Commercial Charging combined with Level 1 Opportunity Charging is the most economical and effective option
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Can Recharging be similar to Refueling?
• Median DBRE for Winnipeg drivers: 10
• Compare this to PHEVs, which would likely need to be recharged each day that they are driven!
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Topics to Address in the Future…
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Winnipeg & Climate
• Winnipeg’s Cold Climate!
• 5 consecutive months with Min Temperature < -10 (C)
• How does this affect battery performance in PHEVs?
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Winnipeg’s Climate
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PHEV viability
Two possible paths:
• We change our driving behavior to fit the needs of PHEV technology
• We change PHEV technology to adapt to our behavior