refunding chart

8/14/2019 Refunding Chart

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Quarterly Refunding Charts

U.S. Department of the TreasuryOffice of Debt Management

February 1, 2010

Office of Debt Management


2/12

Near-Term Financing Outlook

Estimated net marketable borrowing for Q2 and Q3 FY 2010

Net marketable borrowing in Q2 (January-March) is expected to be$392 billion.

Net marketable borrowing in Q3 (April-June) is expected to be

$268 billion.

These estimates do not include incremental borrowing needs that wouldresult from a potential increase in issuance under the SupplementaryFinancing Program (SFP).


2


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Nominal coupons

raised the ma orit of ($ billions)

Treasury Marketable FinancingQ1-FY 2010 FY 2009

October 1, 2009 - December 31, 2009 October 1, 2008 - September 30, 2009cash in the first quarter

of the fiscal year.

Supplementary

Financin Pro ram

Issued Matured

Net SOMA

Activity *

Net Cash

Raised Issued Matured

Net SOMA

Activity *

Net Cash

Raised

Bills (includes SFPs) $1,452.4 $1,651.4 $0.0 -$199.0 $6,920.5 $6,417.8 $0.0 $502.7

Nominal coupons $598.9 $153.5 $0.0 $445.5 $1,886.6 $640.7 $0.0 $1,245.9

(SFP) redemptions

accounted for themajority of the pay

down in bills during

the quarter.

TIPS $14.0 $0.0 $0.0 $14.0 $58.5 $20.8 $0.0 $37.7

Total $2,065.3 $1,804.9 $0.0 $260.5 $8,865.6 $7,079.3 $0.0 $1,786.3

* Note: Negative SOMA activity represents redemptions.

Positive SOMA activity represents additional issuance of securities, made possible by redemptions in maturing securities

with the same settlement date; these are offsetting transactions and are net cash neutral.

Large cash outflows

on February 15 include

maturing 3-, 5- and 10-

Marketable Treasury Coupon Flows (including SOMA) $ Billions

Date Maturing Coupon Securities Coupon Payments Total Outflows

February 15, 2010 57 27 84

Februar 28 2010 29 5 34

.

outflows include

maturing 3- and 5-year

notes.

March 15, 2010 15 1 16March 31, 2010 32 5 37

April 15, 2010 47 2 49

April 30, 2010 33 5 38

Ma 15, 2010 38 21 59


3

May 31, 2010 32 5 37


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.

Volatility in cash150

175

$ Billions

Treasury Daily Operating Cash BalanceExcluding SFPs

FY 2007

FY 2008FY 2009

FY 2010

Note: Data through J anuary 21, 2009

Sep. 15

Dec. 15 J un. 15

balances continues to

pose challenges.

Elevated cash balances

at the end of December 50

75

100

125Apr. 15

2009 were related, in

part, to repayments ofTARP. 0

25

Oct Nov Dec J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep

Key Receipt Dates1st of Month Individual withheld taxes

Key Outlay Dates

1st of each month Medicare, SSI, VA, CSRDF

3rd of each month Main Social Security payments

569.3 600600

$ billions

Treasury Quarterly Net Marketable Borrowing"Net Cash"

Fiscal Quarter$ billions

Note: Includ es SOMA redemptions and SFP's.

$ billions

Note: Includ es SOMA redemptions and SFP's.

ar. , un. , ep . , ec. - orpora e axes

Jan. 15, Apr. 15, Jun. 15, Sept. 15

Individual Non-withheld Taxes

2nd/3rd/4th Wed of each month Soc. Sec. cycle payments

Feb. 15, May 15, Aug. 15, Nov. 15 Interest payment dates

Feb 1 - April 15 Individual tax refunds

et mar eta e

borrowing for Q1 FY

2010 was $260 billion

compared to $569

billion during the same191 0

527.1

481.3

343.2

392.5

260.5

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

250

300

350

400

450

500

550Bills 2-under 5 years

5-10 years 5-10 year TIPS

Over 10 years Over 10 year TIPS

B

o

r

r

o

w

i

n

g

s

B

o

r

r

o

w

i

n

g

s

.

SFP bills were paid

down by $160 billion

in Q1 FY 2010.

97.8

144.2

52.3

92.5

158.0

45.0 41.9

125.7105.2 86.8

.

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Pa

y

Pa

y


4

-78.5 -92.2

-138.7

-44.6

-250

-200

-150

-250

-200

-150

I-05 II III IV I-06 II III IV I-07 II III IV I-08 II III IV I-09 II III IV I-10

ow

n

ow

n


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Inflation-adjusted600

700

800

60

70

80

GrossAnnualTIPSIssuanceandAmountOutstanding30Year(LHS)

20Year(LHS)

10Year(LHS)

5

Year

(LHS)

TIPS outstanding stood

at $568 billion at the

end of December 2009.

300

400

500

30

40

50

$billi

ons

$billi

ons

InflationAdjusted Outstanding (RHS)

0

100

200

10

20

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Calendar Year

50%

Year-over-Year Growth in Outstanding Coupo n SecuritiesSemi-Monthly

Nominals TIPS

Growth in nominal

coupons outstanding

slowed during the past

uarter.

30%

40%

Note:DatathroughDecember31,2009.

10%

20%Rate


6

-10%

Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 May-07 Dec-07 J un-08 J an-09 J ul-09


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Debt Portfolio Projections

Assumptions used in the next 3 charts:

Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget

estimates. Future residual financin needs are s read ro ortionall across

auctioned securities and are derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Excluding 30-

year TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December

31, 2009 and the outstanding level of bills on December 31, 2009. The initial size

or -year s ase on e average announce amoun or -year n

2009.

Projections exclude cash management bills..

Using the above assumptions, over the next 10 years:

verage ma ur y o o a ou s an ng an average ma ur y o ssuance se e oapproximately 68 and 79 months, respectively.

The percent of debt with 3 years or less to maturity is projected to decline to 53%.


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Average maturity of total

debt outstanding rose by 680

90

80

90

monthsmonthsDebt Maturity Measures

Average Maturity of Issuance 1/

Hypothetical FY*

months between March

2009 and December 2009,

from 49 months to 55

months.

50

60

70

50

60

70

20

30

40

20

30

40

Average Maturity of MarketableDebt Outstand ing 2/

1/ Quarterly dat a are actua ls through December 31, 200 9. Actuals and fiscal year projections use a 4-qua rter av erage.2/Quarterly data are actua ls through December 31, 2009. Fiscal yea r projections are yearly dat a.

50%50%

Distribution of Marketable Debt Outstanding by Security

Fiscal Year

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are

derived from hypothetical auction s izes. Excluding 30-year TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December 31, 2009 and the outstanding level of bills on

December 31, 2009. The initial size for 30-year TIPS is based on the average announced amount for 20-year TIPS in 2009. Projections exclude CMB issuance and maturing amounts.

If future financing needs

were spread proportionally

following current issuance

patterns, the proportion of

debt composed of longer- 25%

30%

35%

40%

25%

30%

35%

40% Hypothetical*

increase.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%


8

Bills 2-3 yrs 4-7 yrs 8-10 yrs Bonds TIPS

*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across auctioned s ecurities and are

derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Excluding 30-year TIPS, initial sizes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December 31, 2009 and the outstanding level of bills on



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65%

70%

75%

65%

70%

75%

Percentage of Debt Maturing in Next 12 to 36 Months

Maturing in 36 Months

Hypothetical *

The percentage of debt

maturing within the

next three years is at

historical lows.

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%


20%

25%

30%

35%

20%

25%

30%

35%

198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009 2011 2013201520172019


*Net financing projections for FY 2010-2020 are based on OMB FY 2011 Budget estimates. Future residual financing needs are spread proportionally across auctioned securities and are

derived from hypothetical auction sizes. Excluding 30-year TIPS, initial s izes are based on announced coupon amounts as of December 31, 2009 and the outstanding level of bills on


100

$

Billions

CouponsMaturing*

February

15,

2010

November

15,

20392YRNOTE 3YR NOTE 5YRNOTE 7YRNOTE 10YRNOTE

*Based on coupon securities outstanding as of J anuary21, 2010

Maturing 2-, 3- and 5-

year notes will add to

near-term financing

needs.60

70

80

9030YRBOND 5YR IISBOND 10YRIISNOTE 20YRIISBOND 30YRIISBOND

20

30

40

50


9

0

10

15

F

eb

10

31

M

ar

10

15

M

ay

10

30

Ju

n

10

15

A

ug

10

30

S

ep

10

15

N

ov

10

31

D

ec

10

15

F

eb

11

15

A

pr

11

30

Ju

n

11

31

A

ug

11

15

N

ov

11

31

D

ec

11

15

F

eb

12

31

M

ar

12

15

M

ay

12

30

Ju

n

12

15

A

ug

12

30

S

ep

12

15

N

ov

12

31

D

ec

12

15

F

eb

13

15

A

pr

13

31

M

ay

13

3

1

Jul13

30

S

ep

13

30

N

ov

13

3

1

Jan

14

31

M

ar

14

15

M

ay

14

1

5

Jul14

31

A

ug

14

15

N

ov

14

1

5

Jan

15

1

5

Jul15

1

5

Jan

16

31

M

ar

16

31

M

ay

16

3

1

Jul16

30

S

ep

16

30

N

ov

16

15

F

eb

17

15

A

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15

F

eb

18

15

A

ug

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15

F

eb

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15

A

ug

19

15

F

eb

20

15

F

eb

21

15

N

ov

21

15

F

eb

23

1

5

Jan

25

1

5

Jan

26

15

N

ov

26

15

A

ug

27

15

A

pr

28

1

5

Jan

29

15

A

ug

29

15

A

pr

32

15

M

ay

37

15

F

eb

39

15

N

ov

39


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Additional Factors to Consider

The rate of decline in year-over-year corporate tax receipts slowed in Q1

FY 2010. In the past, changes in corporate tax receipts have led changes in

individual withheld and non-withheld receipts.

Marketable financing needs remain volatile due to uncertainty surrounding

projected revenues, non-marketable debt issuance and outlays related to

ongoing recovery programs.

Treasurys current securities offerings provide flexibility to address a wide

ran e of borrowin scenarios.


10


11/12

FY 2010 and 2011 Deficit and Borrowing Estimates $ billionsPrimary

Dealers* CBO OMB

Primary dealers

currently estimate a

FY 2010 deficit of

$1.357 trillion,

approximately $200

, , ,FY 2011 Deficit Estimates 1,121 980 1,267

FY 2010 Deficit Range 900-1750

FY 2011 Deficit Range 750-1800

billion below the

Administrationsprojection.

ar e a e orrowng ange -

FY 2011 Marketable Borrowing Range 750-1600

Estimates as of: Jan 2010 Jan 2010 Feb 2010

* Based on Primary Dealer feedback on January 28, 2010. Deficit estimates are averages.

2,000($ billions)

Comparing Deficit Estimates fo r FY 2010 since February 2009

Recent deficit1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

OMB CBO Primary Dealers

projections have beenrelatively stable.

200

400

600

800

1,000


11

0February 09 April 09 J une 09 August 09 October 09 December 09 February 10

Estimate Month


12/12

40%

Roll ing 12-Month Growth Rates

The pace of decline in

year-over-year corporate

tax receipts has slowed. 10%

20%

30%

Corp Tax

WH Tax

NonWH Tax

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

-50%

-40%

Mar-82

Mar-83

Mar-84

Mar-85

Mar-86

Mar-87

Mar-88

Mar-89

Mar-90

Mar-91

Mar-92

Mar-93

Mar-94

Mar-95

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09


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