region iii coastal flooding hurricane probabilistic modeling
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Region III Coastal Flooding Hurricane Probabilistic Modeling. Peter J. Vickery Applied Research Associates, Inc. 8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600 Raleigh, NC, 27615. Summary. JPM Approach Statistics of land falling hurricanes - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Region III Coastal Flooding Region III Coastal Flooding Hurricane Probabilistic Hurricane Probabilistic
ModelingModelingPeter J. Vickery
Applied Research Associates, Inc.8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600
Raleigh, NC, 27615
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
SummarySummary JPM Approach
Statistics of land falling hurricanes Develop probability density functions for central pressure, heading,
translation speed, land fall location Model “typical tracks” Assign weights to sample tracks with assigned values of pressure.
This study Limited sample size of historical hurricanes Use synthetic hurricanes from peer reviewed model in lieu of
historical hurricanes Run 100,000 years of synthetic hurricanes with coarse ADCIRC grid
and retain all hurricanes producing storm surge with height greater than x to define the historical storm set
Use resylts in JPM approach as described above
2
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Simulation MethodologySimulation Methodology
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Step 2:
5oSquares
Sample new and Vt
Compute new value of I
Compute Pc, B, RMW
B, RMW from Vickery and Wadhera (2008)
Step 1:
Initialize Storm
Sample B and RMW error terms
Compute I
Step 3:Storm Filling Central pressure filling (Vickery, 2005)
B filling
Site Lat and Long
Distance inland vs. direction
Step 4:
Windfield model (Vickery et al, 2008) turned on
if storm within 250 km of site
V = f {Pc, B, RMW, V t, r}
1008
997998998991
982972
969973982
981987987988976975966966
941950936924928
966
981
981
985
985
982984
991
991
990
990
988
988
987
987
985
985987
1006
998
993
991
987
987
986
983
973
974
946
949
953
94895
496097
0
974
974
945
943
949
951
96196
9976
982
Central Pressure
(6 hour interval)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Coastal SegmentsCoastal Segments
4
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Landfall PressuresLandfall Pressures
5
Region 17
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Region 18
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Region 19
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Region 20
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Region 21
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Region 22
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Region 23
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Region 24
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Region 25
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Region 26
890
910
930
950
970
990
1 10 100 1000Return Period (years)
Cen
tral
Pre
ssu
re
(mb
)
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Mile PostsMile Posts
6
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Storm Statistics: MP 2200Storm Statistics: MP 2200
7
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
CDF
Central Pressure Difference (mbar)
MP 2200 - Pressures Closest to Site
Simulated
Hisorical
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
CDF
Translation Speed (m/s)
MP 2200 - Translation Speed
SimulatedHistoric
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-180 -135 -90 -45 0 45 90 135 180
CDF
Heading
MP 2200
HistoricSimulated
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Storm Statistics: MP 2250Storm Statistics: MP 2250
8
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-180 -135 -90 -45 0 45 90 135 180
CDF
Heading
MP 2250
HistoricSimulated
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
CDF
Central Pressure Difference (mbar)
MP 2250
Simulated
Historical
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
CDF
Translation Speed (m/sec)
MP 2250
Simulated
Historic
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Storm Statistics: MP 2300Storm Statistics: MP 2300
9
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
CDF
Central Pressure Difference (mbar)
MP 2300
SimulatedHistorical
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
CDF
Translation Speed (m/s)
MP 2300
HistoricSimulated
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-180 -135 -90 -45 0 45 90 135 180
CDF
Heading
MP 2300
Historic
Simulated
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Storm Statistics: MP 2350Storm Statistics: MP 2350
10
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
-180 -135 -90 -45 0 45 90 135 180
CDF
Heading
MP 2350
HistoricSimulated0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
CDF
Central Pressure Difference (mbar)
MP 2350
SimulatedHistorical
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
CDF
Translation Speed (m/sec)
MP 2350
SimulatedHistoric
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
Storm Statistics: MP 2400Storm Statistics: MP 2400
11
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
CDF
Central Pressure Difference (mbar)
MP 2400
Simulated
Historical
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-180 -135 -90 -45 0 45 90 135 180
CDF
Heading
MP 2400
Historic
Simulated
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
CDF
Translation Speed (m/s)
MP 2400
Simulated
Historic
Expanding the Realm of Possibility
SummarySummary JPM Approach
Statistics of land falling hurricanes Develop probability density functions for central pressure, heading,
translation speed, land fall location Model “typical tracks” Assign weights to sample tracks with assigned values of pressure.
This study Limited sample size of historical hurricanes Use synthetic hurricanes from peer reviewed model in lieu of
historical hurricanes Run 100,000 years of synthetic hurricanes with coarse ADCIRC grid
and retain all hurricanes producing storm surge with height greater than x to define the historical storm set
Use resylts in JPM approach as described above
12