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Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc.

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Page 1: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

Regional Air Pollution Study

Alissa Dickerson, M.S.Environmental Specialist

Enviroscientists, Inc.

Page 2: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Goal of StudyGoal of Study

Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) http://wrapair.org

Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA)

Goal: provide assessment of Class I areas through integrated approach

www.coha.dri.edu

Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) http://wrapair.org

Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA)

Goal: provide assessment of Class I areas through integrated approach

www.coha.dri.edu

Page 3: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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OverviewOverview

IntroductionMethodologyAnalysisResults & Discussion: Case StudiesSummary

IntroductionMethodologyAnalysisResults & Discussion: Case StudiesSummary

Page 4: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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What is Spatial Representativeness?

What is Spatial Representativeness?

Area within which pollutant concentrations are approximately constant

Quantitative and qualitative approach to investigate equivalency of measurements

Area within which pollutant concentrations are approximately constant

Quantitative and qualitative approach to investigate equivalency of measurements

Page 5: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Why is it important?Why is it important?

Data assessments can determine dependence and elicit solutions Comprehensive picture of a complex

system Tool to assess degree to which

measured concentrations can be derived from reference points Optimal network design

Data assessments can determine dependence and elicit solutions Comprehensive picture of a complex

system Tool to assess degree to which

measured concentrations can be derived from reference points Optimal network design

Page 6: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Why is it Important? (cont.)

Why is it Important? (cont.)

Evaluation tool to help more

efficiently in mediation of

environmental problems

Understanding regional visibility &

reduction

Evaluation tool to help more

efficiently in mediation of

environmental problems

Understanding regional visibility &

reduction

Page 7: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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IntroductionIntroduction

Visibility reduction 1977 CAAUSEPA Regional Haze Rule, Final

(40 CFR 51, 1999)

Interagency Monitoring of Protected

Visual Environments = IMPROVE (1985)

5 regional organizations

Visibility reduction 1977 CAAUSEPA Regional Haze Rule, Final

(40 CFR 51, 1999)

Interagency Monitoring of Protected

Visual Environments = IMPROVE (1985)

5 regional organizations

Page 8: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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The IMPROVE Network: Objectives

The IMPROVE Network: Objectives

Federally mandated Class I areasNational parks, monuments, wilderness

areasIdentify current conditions of visibilityDetermine aerosol species and sourcesDocument trendsCultivate representative monitoring

network

Federally mandated Class I areasNational parks, monuments, wilderness

areasIdentify current conditions of visibilityDetermine aerosol species and sourcesDocument trendsCultivate representative monitoring

network

Page 9: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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The IMPROVE NetworkThe IMPROVE Network

163 sites 1-in-3 day

sampling 4 cyclone-based

modules Coarse mass &

speciated fine aerosols

163 sites 1-in-3 day

sampling 4 cyclone-based

modules Coarse mass &

speciated fine aerosols

Page 10: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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The Improve Network bext

visibility The Improve Network bext

visibility Light Extinction Formulabext= 3*f(RH)[Sulfate] + 3*f(RH)[Nitrate] +

4*[Organic Carbon] + 10*[Elemental Carbon] + 1*[ Fine Soil] + 0.6*[Coarse Mass]+ 10

Concentrations [ ] Units=μg/m3

Units= Mm-1, proportional to amount of light lost over distance of 1 million meters

Rayleigh Scattering= 10 Mm-1, proportional 0.0 deciviews or 400 km

Light Extinction Formulabext= 3*f(RH)[Sulfate] + 3*f(RH)[Nitrate] +

4*[Organic Carbon] + 10*[Elemental Carbon] + 1*[ Fine Soil] + 0.6*[Coarse Mass]+ 10

Concentrations [ ] Units=μg/m3

Units= Mm-1, proportional to amount of light lost over distance of 1 million meters

Rayleigh Scattering= 10 Mm-1, proportional 0.0 deciviews or 400 km

Page 11: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Research ObjectivesResearch ObjectivesDetermine spatial

representativeness of IMPROVE monitors- WRAP

WA, OR, CA, NV, ID, ND, SD, CO, AZ, NM, TX

14 Physiographic Regions

Determine spatial representativeness of IMPROVE monitors- WRAP

WA, OR, CA, NV, ID, ND, SD, CO, AZ, NM, TX

14 Physiographic Regions

Great Basin

Great Plains

Northern Great Plains

Southern Great Plains

Columbia Plateau

Central Rocky Mountains

North Central Lowland Plains

Colorado Plateau

Mexican Highlands

Central Lowland Plains

West Gulf Coastal and Mississippi Alluvial Plains

Southwest Deserts

Southern Rocky Mountains

Cascade Range

Ouachita and Ozark PlateauSierra Nevada Range

Superior Upland

California Central ValleysCalifornia Coast Ranges

Southern Pacific Rainforests

Klamath Mountains

Southern California Ranges

Great Basin

Great Plains

Northern Great Plains

Southern Great Plains

Columbia Plateau

Central Rocky Mountains

North Central Lowland Plains

Colorado Plateau

Mexican Highlands

Central Lowland Plains

West Gulf Coastal and Mississippi Alluvial Plains

Southwest Deserts

Southern Rocky Mountains

Cascade Range

Ouachita and Ozark PlateauSierra Nevada Range

Superior Upland

California Central ValleysCalifornia Coast Ranges

Southern Pacific Rainforests

Klamath Mountains

Southern California Ranges

Page 12: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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ConsiderationsConsiderations

What are most dominant chemical species during 20% worst visibility days within a region?

What are practical statistical and spatial analysis methods?

How do concentrations vary by season?

What are most dominant chemical species during 20% worst visibility days within a region?

What are practical statistical and spatial analysis methods?

How do concentrations vary by season?

Page 13: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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ConsiderationsConsiderations

How can expected average concentrations be determined for a region?

What is a method to test validity?

How can expected average concentrations be determined for a region?

What is a method to test validity?

Page 14: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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MethodologyMethodology

Data1997-2002, 54 monitors w/most complete dataSix aerosol species

Sulfates, nitrates, organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), fine soil, coarse mass (CM)

Focus: Upper 20% of calculated visibility impairment values or 20% worst visibility days

Data1997-2002, 54 monitors w/most complete dataSix aerosol species

Sulfates, nitrates, organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), fine soil, coarse mass (CM)

Focus: Upper 20% of calculated visibility impairment values or 20% worst visibility days

Page 15: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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AssumptionsAssumptions

All elemental sulfur is from sulfate -> ammonium sulfate

All nitrate -> ammonium nitrateTotal organic carbon= C released in four

steps (OC1-OC4) + pyrolized organics (OP)

Thermal Optical Reflectance (TOR) analysis of quartz filter

All elemental sulfur is from sulfate -> ammonium sulfate

All nitrate -> ammonium nitrateTotal organic carbon= C released in four

steps (OC1-OC4) + pyrolized organics (OP)

Thermal Optical Reflectance (TOR) analysis of quartz filter

Page 16: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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AssumptionsAssumptions

Elemental carbon (light absorbing carbon) = EC fractions (EC1-EC3) – pyrolized organics (OP) TOR analysis of quartz filter

Fine soil = sum of Al, Si, K, Ca, Ti particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE)

& Fe X-ray fluorescence (XRF)

Coarse mass = total mass - fine mass

Elemental carbon (light absorbing carbon) = EC fractions (EC1-EC3) – pyrolized organics (OP) TOR analysis of quartz filter

Fine soil = sum of Al, Si, K, Ca, Ti particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE)

& Fe X-ray fluorescence (XRF)

Coarse mass = total mass - fine mass

Page 17: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Analysis ProceduresAnalysis Procedures1) Characterize dynamics of regions

Climate & meteorology: wind patterns & back-trajectory analysis (transport)Graphically displays % of time an air mass

spent in an area Color coded (shading increases w/ residence)

Topography: elevation & intervening terrain

Emission sources and population centers

1) Characterize dynamics of regionsClimate & meteorology: wind patterns &

back-trajectory analysis (transport)Graphically displays % of time an air mass

spent in an area Color coded (shading increases w/ residence)

Topography: elevation & intervening terrain

Emission sources and population centers

Page 18: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Analysis Procedures (cont.)

Analysis Procedures (cont.)

2) Regional spatial correlation analysis: correlation expected to decrease w/distanceCorrelation matrix of aerosol measurementsDistance matrix (km)

ConsiderationCorrelation of site vs. itself = unity[Artificial]= uncertainty * random #+measurement

[Artificial] plotted at distance of 0

2) Regional spatial correlation analysis: correlation expected to decrease w/distanceCorrelation matrix of aerosol measurementsDistance matrix (km)

ConsiderationCorrelation of site vs. itself = unity[Artificial]= uncertainty * random #+measurement

[Artificial] plotted at distance of 0

Page 19: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Analysis (cont.)Analysis (cont.)

3) Criteria correlation cut-off = 0.7Rationalize association between

monitoring sites Validation of spatial representativeness

4) SeasonsWarm months: April to SeptemberCold months: October to March

3) Criteria correlation cut-off = 0.7Rationalize association between

monitoring sites Validation of spatial representativeness

4) SeasonsWarm months: April to SeptemberCold months: October to March

Page 20: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Analysis (cont.)Analysis (cont.)

5) Expected average concentrations density (like temp.) of atmosphere varies w/

altitude [Estimated] = [aerosol]* site density density @ sea levelPut conc. into elevation ranges based on natural

breaks, then averaged= regional estimated conc.Uncertainty= standard deviation of average

concentrations within elevation range (applicable only with 2 or more sites)

5) Expected average concentrations density (like temp.) of atmosphere varies w/

altitude [Estimated] = [aerosol]* site density density @ sea levelPut conc. into elevation ranges based on natural

breaks, then averaged= regional estimated conc.Uncertainty= standard deviation of average

concentrations within elevation range (applicable only with 2 or more sites)

Page 21: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Analysis (cont.)Analysis (cont.)

6) Test of representativeness Analyzed sites within each region

Calculated seasonal average concentrations

Uncertainty= average measurement uncertainty

Compared to estimated concentrations

6) Test of representativeness Analyzed sites within each region

Calculated seasonal average concentrations

Uncertainty= average measurement uncertainty

Compared to estimated concentrations

Page 22: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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3.The Northern Great Plains Region

3.The Northern Great Plains Region

Characteristics(E) Montana, (NE) Wyoming, & (W) portions of

North and South DakotaTerrain: mostly prairie & rolling hills, mix of

forest and grasslandBadlands composed of steep buttes and

pinnaclesSparse population centers Several coal-fired power plants, west-central ND

Characteristics(E) Montana, (NE) Wyoming, & (W) portions of

North and South DakotaTerrain: mostly prairie & rolling hills, mix of

forest and grasslandBadlands composed of steep buttes and

pinnaclesSparse population centers Several coal-fired power plants, west-central ND

Page 23: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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The N. Great Plains 6-IMPROVE sites

The N. Great Plains 6-IMPROVE sites

Site Name Abbreviation Elevation (m)

Badlands National Park BADL1 736

Lostwood Wilderness Area LOST1 692

Medicine Lake Wilderness Area MELA1 605

Theodore Roosevelt Nat'l Park THRO1 853

UL Bend Wilderness Area ULBE1 893

Wind Cave National Park WICA1 1300

Page 24: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Residence Time Analysis WICA1

Residence Time Analysis WICA1

Warm months Prevailing winds

SE Bring in dry air

from SW U.S. Moist warm air

masses from Gulf of Mexico

Few inversions

Warm months Prevailing winds

SE Bring in dry air

from SW U.S. Moist warm air

masses from Gulf of Mexico

Few inversions

Page 25: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Residence Time Analysis MELA1

Residence Time Analysis MELA1

Cold monthsCold

continental air flowing from N/NW from Canada

L system typical, flushes atmosphere

Cold monthsCold

continental air flowing from N/NW from Canada

L system typical, flushes atmosphere

Page 26: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Aerosol SummaryAerosol Summary

Average Aerosol Concentration During the 20% Worst Visibility Days

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

BADL1 LOST1 MELA1 THRO1 ULBE1 WICA1

Average Concentration (ug/m3)

CM

Soil

LAC

OMC

Nitrate

Sulfate

Page 27: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Aerosol Summary (cont.)Aerosol Summary (cont.)

Average Contribution to Light Extinction During the 20% Worst Visibility Days

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

BADL1 LOST1 MELA1 THRO1 ULBE1 WICA1

Contribution to Bext (1/Mm)

CM

Soil

LAC

OMC

Nitrate

Sulfate

Page 28: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Estimated Concentration (µg/m3)

Estimated Concentration (µg/m3)

Elevation 500-1000m UNC 1000-1500m UNC

SO4        

WARM Months 0.31 0.02 0.26 0.03

COLD Months 0.30 0.03 0.22 0.00

NO3        

WARM Months 0.21 0.06 0.17 0.05

COLD Months 0.71 0.27 0.34 0.10

OC        

WARM Months 1.10 0.15 1.13 0.02

COLD Months 0.52 0.07 0.44 0.01

EC        

WARM Months 0.16 0.01 0.16 0.01

COLD Months 0.13 0.01 0.11 0.01

Soil        

WARM Months 0.78 0.10 0.67 0.03

COLD Months 0.37 0.03 0.29 0.06

CM        

WARM Months 7.27 0.61 4.67 0.12

COLD Months 3.27 0.19 2.08 0.12

Page 29: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Test SitesFOPE1 (2yr) NOCH1 (2 yr)

Test SitesFOPE1 (2yr) NOCH1 (2 yr)

  Expected UNC FOPE1 UNC Expected UNC NOCH1 UNC

Elevation 500-1000m   638m   1000-1500m   1332m  

SO4                

WARM Months 0.31 0.02 0.32 0.02 0.26 0.03 0.28 0.01

COLD Months 0.30 0.03 0.29 0.01 0.22 0.00 0.17 0.01

NO3                

WARM Months 0.21 0.06 0.21 0.03 0.17 0.05 0.20 0.02

COLD Months 0.71 0.27 0.90 0.04 0.34 0.10 0.21 0.01

OC                

WARM Months 1.10 0.15 1.08 0.29 1.13 0.02 1.51 0.34

COLD Months 0.52 0.07 0.54 0.17 0.44 0.01 0.33 0.14

EC                

WARM Months 0.16 0.01 0.14 0.01 0.16 0.01 0.19 0.02

COLD Months 0.13 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.07 0.01

Soil                

WARM Months 0.78 0.10 0.26 0.02 0.67 0.03 0.28 0.02

COLD Months 0.37 0.03 0.11 0.01 0.29 0.06 0.14 0.01

CM                

WARM Months 7.27 0.61 6.62 0.20 4.67 0.12 4.79 0.15

COLD Months 3.27 0.19 2.31 0.09 2.08 0.12 1.72 0.08

FOPE1 30m elev.

difference MELA1[NO3]=0.9 µg/m3

Page 30: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Northern Great Plains Regional Conclusions

Northern Great Plains Regional Conclusions

Relatively flat terrain with good dispersion of air

Atypical stagnation alleviates regional haze problems during most days

SO4 representative ~ 180kmColder months show good agreement out

to 700 km

Relatively flat terrain with good dispersion of air

Atypical stagnation alleviates regional haze problems during most days

SO4 representative ~ 180kmColder months show good agreement out

to 700 km

Page 31: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Northern Great Plains Regional Conclusions (cont.)

Northern Great Plains Regional Conclusions (cont.)

NO3

Rep. Distance ~ 450 km, 200km warm monthsFactor – chemical nature to volatilize quickly in

warmer temperatures or not form at all

OCSoutherly located IMPROVE samplers recorded

higher OC concentrations on worst visibility days

Forest fire episodes Rep. distance (Southern region) ~250 km

NO3

Rep. Distance ~ 450 km, 200km warm monthsFactor – chemical nature to volatilize quickly in

warmer temperatures or not form at all

OCSoutherly located IMPROVE samplers recorded

higher OC concentrations on worst visibility days

Forest fire episodes Rep. distance (Southern region) ~250 km

Page 32: Regional Air Pollution Study Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists, Inc. Alissa Dickerson, M.S. Environmental Specialist Enviroscientists,

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Thank youThank you

Questions?Questions?