Regional Approaches to Risk Management

Roger N. Jones

Living with our Changing Climate

IOCI Seminar and Workshop16 August 2005

Moving from the tactical to strategic management of climate

Seasonal outlooks

Decadal variability

Climate change

Tomorrow’s forecast

Irrigation, delivery, floods

Storage, allocations, crop planning

Sustainability, irrigation infrastructure, policy horizons (e.g, water reform, NAP, NHT) ,

changing land-use

Sustainability, salinity, infrastructure, changing land-use,

long-term natural capital, generational change

Time

High

Low

Cer

tain

ty,

polic

y &

man

agem

ent

Seasonal outlooks

Decadal variability

Climate change

Tomorrow’s forecast

Irrigation, delivery, floods

Storage, allocations, crop planning

Sustainability, irrigation infrastructure, policy horizons (e.g, water reform, NAP, NHT) ,

changing land-use

Sustainability, salinity, infrastructure, changing land-use,

long-term natural capital, generational change

Time

High

Low

Cer

tain

ty,

polic

y &

man

agem

ent

Seasonal outlooks

Decadal variability

Climate change

Tomorrow’s forecast

Irrigation, delivery, floods

Storage, allocations, crop planning

Sustainability, irrigation infrastructure, policy horizons (e.g, water reform, NAP, NHT) ,

changing land-use

Sustainability, salinity, infrastructure, changing land-use,

long-term natural capital, generational change

Time

High

Low

Cer

tain

ty,

polic

y &

man

agem

ent

Linking climate to adaptation over time

Climate system

Impacted activity

Socio-economicsystem

Current climate

Future climate

Future adaptations

Current adaptations

Risk is a measure of the changing ability to cope

• Assess current climate risks– Climate variability– How have people learnt to cope?

• Assess future climate risks– Changing climate hazards– Response between climate change and socio-

economic change– Estimating exposure to risks within relevant

planning horizons– Building on historical capacity and developing

new capacities

Scoping phase

If not already established, work with stakeholders to develop conceptual model of system

What is the relationship between the hazard, the impact and vulnerability?

Is there a point (linked to climate) where the the system ceases to operate in the way you would like? – critical threshold

Selecting a method

Current climate

Current impacts

Current adaptive capacity

Coping capacity & vulnerability

Policy & plans without climate

change

Future climate

Future impacts

Vulnerability to untreated risk

Developing new adaptive capacity

Prioritising and implementing adaptations

Residual risk

Natural hazards based

Vulnerability / resilience

based

Policy based

Historical & current climate risk

Future climate risk

Mitigation

Current climate

Current impacts

Current adaptive capacity

Coping capacity & vulnerability

Policy & plans without climate

change

Future climate

Future impacts

Vulnerability to untreated risk

Developing new adaptive capacity

Prioritising and implementing adaptations

Residual risk

Natural hazards based

Vulnerability / resilience

based

Policy based

Historical & current climate risk

Future climate risk

Mitigation

Characterisation of hazards

Sector Climate Hazards

Water Rainfall amount and variability, flood, drought

Agriculture Flood, drought, cool/hot extremes,Storms, hail, humidity

Health Hot/wet conditions, temperature extremes, violent storms, floods, crop and water shortages

Coasts Storm surges, wind/wave climates, pressure extremes, tidal extremes

Biodiversity Fire, flood, drought, storms

What’s my baseline – water resources

Climate records Streamflow records

Storage records Operational records

Abrupt shifts in Australian rainfall1890–1990

1891

1893

19721894

1967

1946

1945

1948

0102030405060708090

100110

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f st

atio

ns

TotalPositive

Future climate - no adaptation

Coping range

Vulnerability(drought)

Vulnerability(flood)

Future climate with adaptation

Coping range

Vulnerability(drought)

Vulnerability(flood)

Adaptation

Planning horizon

Policy Horizon

Planning horizons20

00

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Ne

w ir

rigat

ion

pro

ject

s

Lar

ge d

ams

Brid

ge

des

ign

life

/floo

d h

eig

hts

Ag

ricul

ture

(w

hole

far

m p

lann

ing

)

Tre

e c

rop

s

Airp

ort

des

ign

life

Pla

nt b

reed

ing

(ne

w c

rops

)F

ore

st le

ase

ag

reem

ent

sP

ulp

pla

ntat

ions

Maj

or

urb

an in

fras

truc

ture

Co

asta

l/to

uris

m in

fras

truc

ture

Ele

ctio

n cy

cles

/pro

fit &

loss

Ge

nera

tiona

l suc

cess

ion

Lo

ng-te

rm b

iod

ive

rsity

Nat

iona

l par

ks

Inte

rge

nera

tiona

leq

uity

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Ne

w ir

rigat

ion

pro

ject

s

Lar

ge d

ams

Brid

ge

des

ign

life

/floo

d h

eig

hts

Ag

ricul

ture

(w

hole

far

m p

lann

ing

)

Tre

e c

rop

s

Airp

ort

des

ign

life

Pla

nt b

reed

ing

(ne

w c

rops

)F

ore

st le

ase

ag

reem

ent

sP

ulp

pla

ntat

ions

Maj

or

urb

an in

fras

truc

ture

Co

asta

l/to

uris

m in

fras

truc

ture

Ele

ctio

n cy

cles

/pro

fit &

loss

Ge

nera

tiona

l suc

cess

ion

Lo

ng-te

rm b

iod

ive

rsity

Nat

iona

l par

ks

Inte

rge

nera

tiona

leq

uity

Average uncertainty

P and Ep change over Australia(per degree global warming)

NW NE

SE

Tas

SW

North-west

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cha

nge

per

degr

ee w

arm

ing

(%)

Evaporation Rainfall

South-west

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cha

nge

per

degr

ee w

arm

ing

(%)

Evaporation Rainfall

North-east

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cha

nge

per

degr

ee w

arm

ing

(%)

Evaporation RainfallSouth-east

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cha

nge

per

degr

ee w

arm

ing

(%)

Evaporation RainfallTasmania

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cha

nge

per

degr

ee w

arm

ing

(%)

Evaporation Rainfall

P and Ep changes for north-western Australia

Change per degree global warming

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cha

nge

per

degr

ee w

arm

ing

(%)

Evaporation Rainfall

P and Ep changes for south-western Australia

Change per degree global warming

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cha

nge

per

degr

ee w

arm

ing

(%)

Evaporation Rainfall

Hydrological sensitivity and runoff co-efficient

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 10 20 30 40 50

Runoff (% of rainfall)

Sen

sitiv

ity

Simhyd A Simhyd B AWBM A AWBM B Zhang01 A Zhang01 B

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Albany

Coa

st

Denm

ark R

iver

Kent R

iver

Frank

land

River

O'Sha

nnon

Rive

r

War

ren

River

Donne

lly R

iver

Blackw

ood

River

Busse

lton

Coast

Presto

n Rive

r

Collie

River

Harve

y Rive

r

Mur

ray R

iver (

WA)

Avon

River

Swan C

oast

Moo

re-H

ill Rive

rs

Cha

nge

in m

ean

annu

al f

low

(%

)

Simple model of mean flow changes in 2030 – preliminary results

Sup

ply

chan

ge

Demand change

Critical th

reshold

System vulnerability (supply & demand)

• Sensitivity to supply changes (climate, land-use, fire)

• Level of utilisation

• Demand projections

Current management

Marginal planned change

Substantial change

Adapting (generic)Improve technology access

Institutional reform

Improved equity

Access to information

Build social capital

Access to wealth creation

Adapting (specific)Mainstreaming adaptation

Natural resource management

New technology

Disaster planning

Retrofit existing structures

Build resilience/resistance

Autonomous adaptation

Assess risk

Manage risk

No adaptation

Autonomous adaptation

Critical risk

Coping range → Adaptive capacity

Mitigation

Adaptation

Mitigative capacity ←

Danger

Adapting (transformative)Replace activity

Abandon activity

Transform activity

Natural hazard-driven approach

• What risks may we face under this projected scenario(s)?

• Analyse possible outcomes from a given climate hazard(s) ± other drivers of change

• An understanding of current/future climate-related risks

• Exploratory scenarios of climate with other biophysical and socio-economic conditions – Probabilities of hazard constrained– Main drivers known – Chain of consequences understood– P(Hazard) × Consequences– Largely exploratory 

Approach

Method

Outcome

Scenarios

Criteria:

Vulnerability-driven approach

• What is the risk of a specific place, process, group or activity being harmed?

• Determine the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance

• Understanding of exposure to harm and harmful processes

• Characterisation of socio-economic outcomes; can use climate scenarios or diagnose exposure through inverse methods– Probabilities of hazard not constrained– Many drivers resulting in vulnerability– Multiple pathways and feedbacks– P(Vulnerability)/Hazard (e.g. critical threshold

exceedance)– Largely normative

Approach

Method

Outcome

Scenarios

Criteria:

Resilience-driven approach

• What advantages can we gain by better understanding of our current/future capacities?

• Assess ability to withstand shocks, recover from setbacks and manage change.

• Better knowledge of coping mechanisms and socio-political institutions, barriers to adaptation, increased benefits

• Baseline adaptation, adaptation analogues from history, other locations other activities– Impacts and/or vulnerability understood– Evidence of successful adaptation– Benefits thought to be likely– Barriers to adaptation recognised– Risks that require treatment

Approach

Method

Outcome

Scenarios

Criteria:

Policy-driven approach

• How will our current plans for the future be affected by climate change?

• Assess the efficacy of an existing or proposed policy under climate change

• Fitter policy under climate change

• Unmanaged climate change impacts and vulnerability– Policy aims are sensitive to climate

change– Desire to “mainstream” adaptation

Approach

Method

Outcome

Scenarios

Criteria: