regional climate and impact modelling in the pacific

8/8/2019 Regional Climate and Impact Modelling in the Pacific

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Zkhgcfid Mdgeitk ifo Ge|imt Ecokdgfh

gf t`k \imgagm

Zkhgcfid Mdgeitk ifo Ge|imt Ecokdgfh

gf t`k \imgagm

Mkftkz acz Mdgeitk Zg}n ifo C||czt{fgtw Eifihkekftgf ]c{t`ki}t I}gi ifo \imgagm (MMZCE%]KI\'

Jchcz Ihzgm{dt{zid [fgqkz}gtwGfocfk}gi

IOJ Zkhgcfid Xczn}`c| cf Zk}|cfogfh tc Mdgeitk M`ifhk gf t`k \imgagm2Ecqgfh azce ]tzitkhw tc Imtgcf

Fiog$ Agbg G}difo}$ 9:%9= Cmtcjkz :


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C{tdgfkC{tdgfkG& Jimnhzc{fo ifo CjbkmtgqkGG& M{zzkft ifo A{t{zk MdgeitkGGG& Ge|imt ca M{zzkft ifo A{t{zk Mdgeitk cf Ih

]kmtczGQ& Ge|imt ca M{zzkft ifo A{t{zk Mdgeitk cf Xitk

Zk}c{zmk}Q& Ge|imt ca M{zzkft ifo A{t{zk Mdgeitk cf Mci}

IzkiQG& ]{eeizw


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G& Jimnhzc{foifo CjbkmtgqkG& Jimnhzc{foifo Cjbkmtgqk

Gf t k a{t{zk$ mdgeitk mìfhk mi{}ko jw hdcjid xizegfh mzkitk} fkx |ittkzf} ca zg}n ifo t`k zg}ngfmzki}k hkfkziddw&

Xgt` t`k gfmzki}k ca mdgeitk zg}n$ eifw mc{ftzgk}$ |iztgm{dizdw okqkdc|gfh mc{ftzgk} eiw iqk ogaagm{dtgk}tc im`gkqk t`k Egddkffg{e Okqkdc|ekft Hcid} zkditko tc |cqkztw$ `{fhkz ifo `{eif `kidt`&

_`k \imgagm okqkdc|gfh ekejkz mc{ftzgk} (OEM' ca t`k I}gif Okqkdc|ekft Jifn (IOJ' izk iecfh t`kec}t q{dfkzijdk fitgcf} t`zkitkfko jw mdgeitk mìfhk& ]ki%dkqkd zg}k ifo kptzkek mdgeitk kqkft} izkidzkiow kpimkzjitgfh gf{foitgcf$ }tcze }{zhk$ kzc}gcf$ ifo ct`kz mci}tid ìrizo}$ t`{} |{ttgfh it zg}nqgtid gfazi}tz{mt{zk$ }kttdkekft}$ ifo aimgdgtgk} tìt }{||czt t`k dgqkdg`cco ca g}difo mcee{fgtgk}&

\imgagm OEM} dimn ioky{itk zk}gdgkfmk tc ij}czj t`k kmcfcegm }`cmn} ittzgj{tko tc mdgeitk ge|imt}&Mcf}tzigft} gfmd{ok dcx `{eif$ agfifmgid$ ifo tkm`fgmid mi|imgtw> |ccz mcczogfitgcf jktxkkf f{ekzc{}ocfcz} c|kzitgfh gf t`k zkhgcf> ifo t`k dgegtko iqigdijgdgtw ca }mgkftgagm gfaczeitgcf&

_c zk}|cfo k}tijdg}`gfh i mdgeitk mìfhk ifo tc }tzkfht`kf ioi|titgcf eki}{zk acz t`k \imgagm OEM}$IOJ ge|dkekft i _km`fgmid I}}g}tifmk (_I'&

_`k }mc|k ca t`g} mce|cfkft izk tc mizzw c{t i zkhgcfidmdgeitk mìfhk ecokdgfh$ tc i}}k}} q{dfkzijgdgtw ifo |`w}gmidmdgeitk ge|imt} gf nkw }kmtcz}$ ifo ifidwrk t`k kaakmtgqkfk}}ca ioi|titgcf c|tgcf} gf nkw }kmtcz}&


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Ecft`dw ZigfaiddMdgeitcdchw

Ecft`dw ZigfaiddMdgeitcdchw

Dizhk }|itgiddw zigfaidd qizgitgcfimzc}} g}difo mc{ftzgk} gf t`k\imgagm

GG& M{zzkft MdgeitkGG& M{zzkft Mdgeitk


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Ecft`dw Zigfaidd MdgeitcdchwEcft`dw Zigfaidd Mdgeitcdchw

_`k MZ[ oiti okecf}tzitk} t it ec}t ca t`k zigfaidd |ittkzf} gf t`k \imgagmmc{ftzgk} izk gfad{kfmko jw t`kgz hkchzi|`gmid |c}gtgcf zkditgqk tc t`k Ky{itcz$gfogmitgfh t`k ge|imt ca t`k Ecf}ccf} ifo t`k Gftkz%tzc|gmid#]c{t` \imgagm

Mcfqkzhkfmk Rcfk (G_MR ifo#cz ]\MR' og}tzgj{tgcf}& Acz t k mc{ftzgk} dcmitko gf t`k }c{t kzf @keg}|`kzk$ ec}t ca t`kgz zigfaiddtw|k} izk m`izimtkzgrko jw zigfaidd |kin t`it cmm{z o{zgfh Bif{izw cz Eizm`$

x`gdk t`k dcxk}t zigfaidd {}{iddw cmm{z cf B{fk$ B{dw cz I{h{}t (k&h& MccnG}difo}$ Agbg G}difo} \i|{i Fkx H{gfki$ ]ieci$ Ki}t _gecz$ _cfhi$ Qif{it{'& Ct`kz }titk} }{m` i} Fi{z{$ Eiz} idd G}difo} i} i }dgh`tdw ogaakzkft zigfaidd

iec{ft} gf kim` ecft`$ x`gdk acz t`k Akokzitko ]titk} ca Egmzcfk}gi i} i mcftziogmtczw tw|k ca zigfaidd

xgt` gt} |kin cmm{z} o{zgfh B{dw cz I{h{}t o{k tc gt} dcmitgcf gf t`k fczt`kzf |iztca t`k Ky{itcz&


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M{zzkft KF]C2Cj}kzqitgcf ifo Ecokd}

M{zzkft KF]C2Cj}kzqitgcf ifo Ecokd}

_`k }t{ow {}ko:< HME}

_`k |ccz zk|zk}kftitgcf} ca KF]Cgfogmk} zk}{dtko jw t`k ecokd}

gfogmitk tìt t`k ecokd} miffct jk{}ko tc gokftgaw wkiz%tc%wkiz KF]Ckqkft}& Fkqkzt`kdk}}$ t`k ecokd}mif }tgdd jk {}ko tc gokftgaw t`kmìfhk gf t`k }titg}tgm} ca KF]C gft`k a{t{zk o{k tc t`k mìfhk ca keg}}gcf }mkfizgc}&


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Cj}kzqko ]ki}cfid \ittkzf}ca ]]_ gf t`k \imgagm

Cj}kzqko ]ki}cfid \ittkzf}ca ]]_ gf t`k \imgagm

% 9}t ecok ca KCA (KCA9' %6 KF]C qizgijgdgtw (6;


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KF]C ge|imt cf m{zzkft zigfaiddKF]C ge|imt cf m{zzkft zigfaidd

_`k KF]C%zigfaidd zkditgcf}`g| g} ac{fo tc jkmcf}g}tkftdw |c}gtgqk gf t`k mc{ftzgk} t`it izk dcmitko

gf t`k mkftzid \imgagm Cmkif ifo fkiz t`k Ky{itcz&


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\ittkzf mckaagmgkft zkhzk}}gcf} }`cxgfh t`k zkditgcf}`g| jktxkkf t`k KF]Cgfogmk} (Fgfc%9:$ Fgfc%=$ Fgfc=? ifo Fgfc%? ]]_ zkhgcf' ifo zigfaidd gf i' Agbg$ j'\FH$ m' ]cdcecf (97


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Agh{zk K9&9:2 \ittkzf mckaagmgkft zkhzk}}gcf} }`cxgfh t`k zkditgcf}`g| jktxkkf t`kKF]C gfogmk} (Fgfc%9:$ Fgfc%=$ Fgfc=? ifo Fgfc%? ]]_ zkhgcf' ifo zigfaidd gf o']ieci$ k' _gecz%Dk}tk$ ifo a' Qif{it{ (97


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A{t{zk KF]CA{t{zk KF]C

Ji}ko cf t`k i}}k}}ekft ca gfogqgo{id HME$ ec}t ca t`k ecokd}ihzkk t`it t`k f{ejkz ca xize ifo mcdo KF]C k|g}cok} xgdd

gfmzki}k gf t`k a{t{zk {fokz ]ZK] I9J ifo I: }mkfizgc}

}kqkzid ecokd} okecf}tzitkif gfmzki}k ca KF]C kqkft}

{| tc eczk t`if :


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KF]C ge|imt cf a{t{zk zigfaiddKF]C ge|imt cf a{t{zk zigfaidd

ZkhME= oiti |zcqgok} eczk oktigdgfaczeitgcf zkhizogfh tc t`k ge|imt ca KF]C cf zigfaidd gf Agbg&

_`k zigfaidd gf t`k fczt kzf mci}t} ca QgtgDkq{ ifo Qif{i Dkq{ xgdd gfmzki}k o{zgfhKd Fgfc kqkft}&

_`k gfmzki}gfh zigfaidd iec{ft ifogftkf}gtw o{zgfh Kd Fgfc wkiz g} |c}}gjdwzkditko tc t`k gfmzki}gfh f{ejkz ca _zc|gmid Mwmdcfk} (_M> }{||ztko jwagfogfh} azce Nc}ti}m`{n kt id& :


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M{zzkft tke|kzit{zk tzkfo} ji}ko cf t`k MZ[ _]:&< oiti(97


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_ke|kzit{zk _zkfo} ji}ko cf ZME }ge{ditgcf} acz M{zzkft ifo A{t{zk Mdgeitk

_gecz Dk}tkM{zzkft2 < tc


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GQ& Ge|imt ca M{zzkft ifo A{t{zkMdgeitk cf Ihzgm{dt{zk ]kmtcz

GQ& Ge|imt ca M{zzkft ifo A{t{zkMdgeitk cf Ihzgm{dt{zk ]kmtcz

Ge|imt ca mdgeitk m`ifhk cfAgbg} ihzgm{dt{zk }kmtcz g}acm{}ko cfdw cf t`k }{hiz mifki} t`g} mzc| g} t`k eigf

mceekzmgid mzc|&

_`k }{hiz mifk gfo{}tzw g} ifgftkhzid |izt ca t`k kmcfcew ca Agbg$ mcftzgj{tgfh {| tc ?


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Ge|imt ca M{zzkft ifo A{t{zkMdgeitk cf Ihzgm{dt{zk ]kmtcz Ge|imt ca M{zzkft ifo A{t{zkMdgeitk cf Ihzgm{dt{zk ]kmtcz

Zigfaidd |ittkzf ifo }{hizmifk |diftgfh }ki}cf ca Agbg

regional climate and impact modelling in the pacific

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