1Regional Climate February 2011

 

William. M. LapentaActing Director

Environmental Modeling Center

NOAA/NWS/NCEP

With contributions from many EMC Staff……

NCEP

Overview of the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

with an Emphasis on Climate  

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The EMC Mission…..

Develop and Enhance numerical guidance– Improve NCEP’s numerical forecast model

systems via:• Scientific upgrades• Optimization• Additional observations

Transition operational numerical forecast models from research to operations

– Transform & integrate • Code• Algorithms• Techniques

– Manages and executes transition process including technical and system performance review before implementation

Maintain operational model suite– The scientific correctness and integrity of

operational forecast modeling systems– Modify current operational system to adapt to

ever-present external changes

EMC location within the funnel

In response to operational requirements:

45%

25%

30%

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NWS Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Weather and Climate

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

NCEP Model Perspective

Mar

itim

e

Mar

itim

e

Life

& P

rope

rty

Life

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

tions

Spa

ce O

pera

tions

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Env

iron

men

t

Env

iron

men

t

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

ol

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

ol

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

g

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

g

Com

mer

ce

Com

mer

ce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fire

Wea

ther

Fire

Wea

ther

Hea

lthH

ealth

Avi

atio

n

Avi

atio

n

•North American Ensemble Forecast System

•Climate Forecast System

•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

•Global Forecast System

•North American Mesoscale

•Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

•Dispersion Models for DHS

•Global Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane WRF & GFDLWaves

Real Time Ocean Forecast System

Space Weather

Tsunami

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0

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Node use for 20091202

Time of the day (utc)

Nu

mb

er

of N

ode

s

STRATUS HWM

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0:00:00 0:45:00 1:30:00 2:15:00 3:00:00 3:45:00 4:30:00 5:15:00 6:00:00 6:45:00 7:30:00 8:15:00 9:00:00 9:45:0010:30:00 11:15:00 12:00:00 12:45:00 13:30:00 14:15:00 15:00:00 15:45:00 16:30:00 17:15:00 18:00:00 18:45:00 19:30:00 20:15:00 21:00:00 21:45:00 22:30:00 23:15:00

dev

ofs_atl

test

para

multi

misc

cdc

dgex

aqm

cdas

hiresw

sref

godas

cfs

mrf

firewx

merge

ruc2

hur

wave

gefs

gdas

gfs_analysisgfs

ndas

nam

Node use for 20091202

00 06 12 18

Development Work

January 2010

High Water Mark

Fence

Production Suite on Supercomputer

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Time of the day (utc)

Nu

mb

er

of N

ode

s

00 06 12 18

Development Work

Production Suite on Supercomputer

December 2010

High Water Mark

Fence

Capacity Change:50% increase in production80% decrease in development

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Time of the day (utc)

Nu

mb

er

of N

ode

s

00 06 12 18

Development Work on Supercomputer

December 2010

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The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug van den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, Mitch Goldberg

Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyVolume 91, Issue 8, pp 1015-1057. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1

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9Regional Climate February 2011

Attribute Operational (Since 2004) Jan 2011

Analysis Resolution 200 km 38 km

Atmosphere model 1995: 200 km/28 levels

Humidity based clouds

100 km/64 levels

Variable CO2

AER SW & LW radiation

Prognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blocking

Convective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S

1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global

¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m

Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation

2-level LSM

No separate land data assim

4 level Noah model

GLDAS driven by obs precip

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling Daily 30 minutes

Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background

Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)

124/month (week 3-6)

Advancement of Climate Forecast System (CFS) Planned for Q2FY11

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9 Month

Seasonal

45 Day

Operational Configuration for the Climate Forecast System V2 (FY11)

0 UTC 6 UTC 18 UTC12 UTC

A total of 16 CFS runs every day– 4 runs @ 9 months length– 3 runs @ 1 season– 9 runs @ 45 days

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22 days

25 days

3 days

7 days

WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar

Preliminary Analysis Shows Improved WH MJO Signal in CFSV2

WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec

CFS Operational

CFS Operational

CFS V2

CFS V2

WH-MJO Index 09 Feb to 13 Mar

WH-MJO Index 09 Nov to 13 Dec

Ski

llS

kill

Ski

llS

kill

Days

Days

Days

Days

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Increasing Domination of Ensemble Based Model Systems

• Climate: Multi-Model Ensemble possibilities– International MME products (with EUROSIP)– NCEP Climate Forecast System + GFDL

Climate Model+NCAR CSM

• Mesoscale: Short Range Ensemble Forecasts– WRF/ARW + WRF/NMM + RSM

• Medium Range Weather: North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

– GFS + MSC + Navy FNMOC NOGAPS

Experimental Enhanced Resolution Thunderstorm Outlooks

Forecast Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies from CFS

Probability of Temperature over 30C over 24 hour period

(7 day forecast valid Sept 3-4, 2009)

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Land-Hydrology Team Mission

• Improve EMC Forecast Model performance and skill via land-surface component:– NAM/WRF, HWRF, GFS, CFS, CFSRR/GLDAS,

NARR (including NDAS and GDAS)• Land model physics (Noah LSM): surface

fluxes, soil, vegetation, snowpack, sfc-layer/PBL

• Land surface characteristics: Vegetation cover, soil type, albedo, emissivity, roughness, etc

• Land state initial conditions: soil moisture & temp, snowpack

• Climate Service Products (CPPA):– NLDAS soil moisture

analysis/monitoring/prediction for NIDIS (drought)

– NLDAS soil moisture seasonal predictions– CEOP (Global Model intercomparisons among

NWP centers; GEWEX program)11

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June 1998 – drought year

Large similarity and small spread

EXTREMES: Monthly total column soil moisture anomalies and model spread (mm/month)

July 1993 – flood year

Similar characteristics and large spread

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Global HYCOM (RTOFS-Global)

– Adopting Navy 1/12° global HYCOM model using

• Daily initialization from NAVO.• GFS forcing.• Daily 7-8 day run with 2 day spin-

up.

– NCO parallel started FY10Q4.• Establish reliability of NAVO data

feed.• Establish compatibility of NCEP

and Navy forcing.• Develop products with customers.

– Full data on NOMADS.

– Become operational in FY2011Q4

Example surface currents from MMAB parallel

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NEMS Component Structure

2

MAIN

EARTH(1:NM)

Ocean Atm Ice

NMM GFS FIM

Dyn Phy

Domains(1:ND)

Below the dashed line the source codes are organized by the model developers.

Wrt Dyn Phy Wrt Dyn Phy Wrt

NEMS

EnsembleCoupler

Chem

All boxes represent ESMF components.

NEMSLAYER

Start timeRun lengthStart timeRun length

EnsembleComponentEnsemble

Component

Choice ofphysical domainand component

Choice ofphysical domainand component

Componentexecution

Componentexecution

Individualnests

Individualnests

NOAA Environmental Modeling System(NEMS)

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Questions Welcome