regional market focus phillip securities research pte...

MCI (P) 137/11/2012 Ref No: RM2012_0227 1 of 16

Regional Market Focus

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

23 November 2012

- STI: +0.89% to 2986.6 - MSCI SE Asia: +0.46% to 829.7 - Hang Seng: +1.02% to 21743.2 - MSCI APxJ: +0.85% to 440 - Euro Stoxx 50: +0.61% to 2535.1 - S&P500: 1391 (closed for hols) MARKET OUTLOOK: By Joshua Tan, Hd of Research We said yesterday morning that near term equity trading signals are looking bullish again, and the rest of the trading day continued to build on this case. We suggested that the STI (ES3.SGX), which had a previous minor rejection off its 200dma actually had a good chance of going above it and yesterday it gapped above to close above. The HSI (2800.HK), HSCEI (2828.HK) continue to build on gains after bouncing off support levels (21000 and 200dma respectively). Hopefully the S&P500 (SPY.NYSE) will also build on gains after finding support on its 200dma when it resumes trading. There stands a good chance this long bias will continue as the Dollar Index has confirmed a short term bearish signal of gapping below its 200dma to close below it. We think its fairly safe to go long the indices (ETF tickers in brackets, or with Phillip CFDs World Indices). As usual, trading is a probabilities game so keep your stops tight. Just to recap market thoughts – markets were in correction but reversed course on Friday/Monday on a positive shift of tone from Washington with both sides signalling willingness to compromise for a resolution on the impending fiscal cliff. Markets are staying positive on this, but could reverse course again if politicians do not follow up with DETAILS, DETAILS, DETAILS. On the investment climate, we are getting increasingly constructive going into 1H13 - underlying macro conditions see the rate of slowdown in Asia easing and China bottoming (see today Regional Strategy – China & HK – Positive/Overweight – stocks featured CCCC, ABC, HSBC, AIA). The US is mixed in our opinion – housing recovery is good, consumption is mixed (subsidised by savings), but investment sentiment is bad (crushed by the fiscal cliff uncertainty). But if a political compromise is reached on the fiscal cliff, a rebound in investment could be catalytic for markets. SG equity strategist favours Capitaland, SATS and SIAEC. SECTOR/STRATEGY REPORTS: - Singapore Sector Reports: Property, 15 Nov/ Banks, 1 Nov / Transport, 10 Sept / REITS, 5 Sept - Country Strategy: China & HK, 23 Nov / US, 24 Oct / Thai, 5 Oct / Indon, 27 Sept / S'pore, 3 Sept / Malaysia, 31 Aug - Global Macro, Asset Strategy: 9 Oct/ Update, 25 Oct MACRO DATA: In Euro zone, advance reading for composite PMI reported 45.8 in Nov, barely changed from the 45.7 reading in Oct, still indicating a contraction in the region’s economic activities. Advance reading for the region’s manufacturing PMI reported 46.2, compared to 45.4 in Oct, indicating a slightly slower contraction in manufacturing activities. Advance reading for service PMI fell slightly to 45.7 in Nov from 46.0 in Oct, indicating a slightly faster contraction in service sector. In Germany, the largest economy in Euro zone, advance reading for Nov manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 46.8 in Nov, from 46.0 in Oct, indicating a slightly slower contraction in manufacturing sectors. Advance reading for Service PMI fell slightly to 48.0 from 48.4 in Oct, indicating a slightly faster contraction in service sector. In China, preliminary reading for Nov HSBC manufacturing PMI returned to above 50 for the first time in 13 months, reporting 50.4, compared to the final readings of 49.5 in Oct and 47.8 in Aug, indicating a mild expansion in the nation’s manufacturing activities. This improvement further backs our conclusion that China’s economy is bottoming out.


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Singapore The benchmark STI closed up to 2,986.6 (+0.9%). The 2.9bn shares traded were

worth S$1.2bn. The average value of shares traded was exceptionally low, implying that trading was focused on penny stocks.

Trading sentiments in the Singapore market were buoyed by positive manufacturing PMI numbers out of China (Nov: 50.4, prelim).

Keppel Corp rallied 2.7% on high volume due to positive interests in the counter after a successful tender to build 2 semi-subs. Contract values were not announced yet pending further negotiations.

Our macro team opines that economic conditions have bottomed out in China and its property prices have stabilised. We believe that Capitaland (Accumulate, TP: S$3.55) offers excellent exposure to this positive trend with 38% of its asset allocated to China (as of Mar 12).

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 2986.63 26.33 0.89P/E (x) 11.38P/Bv (x) 1.36

3.11Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

11/22 2/22 5/22 8/22 11/22

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand Trading was cautious in the Thai stock market on Thu due to a lack of clarity on

market direction as a number of both internal and external factors still needed to be closely watched. The SET index finished the session 3.12 points on Thu.

The SET index is likely to maintain its pattern of narrow-range trading today due to the lack of overseas cues from US stock and oil markets which were closed on Thu for the Thanksgiving holiday. On the other side of the Atlantic, European equities rose for a fourth consecutive session on Thu, receiving a boost from data showing China HSBC Flash PMI rose to a 13-month high in Nov 2012, the latest indicator of recovery in the real economy but gains were only short-lived as there was no progress in Europe’s debt crisis, the biggest problem for the region. In Thailand, the market’s focus would remain on (i) the anti-government rally of the Pitak Siam group scheduled for this Sat, Nov 24 after the Constitution Court rejected three petitions filed against the group seeking to block its protest and the cabinet imposed the Internal Security Act for nine days from today to Nov 30, 2012 in three districts of Bangkok to handle the rally and (ii) the no-confidence debate against the government on Nov 25-27.

In the near term, we advise investors to maintain equity holdings at 25% of the portfolio and the strategy is still to be selective in stocks.

Resistance on the main index is seen at 1283, 1290 and support at 1268, 1260 today.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1279.51 3.12 0.24P/E (x) 16.50P/Bv (x) 2.20

3.48Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

11/22 2/22 5/22 8/22 11/22

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed higher on Thursday (22/11), following positive closes on Asian markets after the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hamas. The JCI gained 18.650 points, or 0.43%, to close at 4,335.927. The advance included six of the 9 major industry groups, led by consumer goods sector which index climbed 2.36%, construction added 0.97%, and miscellaneous industry rose 0.56%. LQ45, the index tracking Indonesia’s blue-chip stocks, rose 4.617 points to end at 744.444. 141 shares advanced, 88 shares declined, and 110 shares remained unchanged Thursday on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, where 3.576 billion shares worth IDR 3.516 trillion traded on the regular board. Foreign market participants posted net buy worth IDR 144.647 billion.

The JCI will likely move sideways today, with lack of market driver as US market closed overnight. We expect the composite index to trade with support at 4,298 and resistance at 4,357.

Close +/- % +/-JCI Index 4335.93 18.65 0.43P/E (x) 17.05P/Bv (x) 2.87

2.06Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

11/22 2/22 5/22 8/22 11/22

Source: Bloomberg


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Sri Lanka The Colombo bourse closed the trading day with all indices recording positive

closures. This was following the negative closures that were recorded during the past 3 market days. The benchmark ASPI index gained 46.05 points (an increase of 0.86% compared to the previous day) to closed the day at 5,406.65, the more liquid MPI closed at 4,955.00 after a gaining 29.97 points. The S&P SL20 Price Index closed at 2,967.53 after gaining 16.27 points. The market capitalization stood at LKR 2.07Tn which is a 6.24% year to date loss.

The turnover for the day was LKR 487.8Mn. Investment trust & Diversified Holdings were the top contributors under the sectorial summary. Price losers outnumbered the price gainers at a ratio of 135:68. The net foreign inflow for the day was LKR 25Mn. further; this is a year to date inflow of LKR 34.54Bn. Close +/- % +/-

CSEALL Index 5406.65 46.05 0.86P/E (x) 11.17P/Bv (x) 1.65

2.64

Dividend Yield

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

11/22 2/22 5/22 8/22 11/22

Source: Bloomberg

Australia

On Thursday, the Australian share market closed higher following positive manufacturing data out of the US overnight and China during the day promoting positive investor sentiment. At the close, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was up 43.6 points or 0.99 per cent to 4,413.1.

Today, the local market is expected to open slightly lower after The U.S markets were closed for Thanksgiving holiday. The SFE Futures 200 is pointing lower 7 points or 0.15 per cent to 4,416.

Close +/- % +/-S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4413.07 43.57 1.00P/E (x) 17.08P/Bv (x) 1.75

STANDARD & POORS/ ASX 200 INDEX

Dividend Yield

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

11/22 2/22 5/22 8/22 11/22

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong

Chinese stocks failed to extend the strong rebound the previous day on Thursday, although flash PMI showed the country's manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in more than a year. Preliminary data released by HSBC on Thursday showed China's PMI climbed to 50.4 in November, the first reading above the expansion indicating 50-threshold in 13 months and rising from a final reading of 49.5 in October. The news, however, failed to lift the markets. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.72 percent, or 14.71 points, to 2,015.61. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,047.52, down 103.32 points, or 1.27 percent.

The Hong Kong market also rides on the eye-catching PMI data. The HIS rallied, adding 218points to 21,743. Trading range was between 21,774 and 21,517. However, Trade volume shrank to HK$49.60 billion.

Technically, the HSI is expected to consolidate at around 21,500 with near term support and resistant at 21, 500 and 22,800 respectively.

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 21743.20 218.84 1.02P/E (x) 11.13P/Bv (x) 1.44

3.27Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

11/22 2/22 5/22 8/22 11/22

Source: Bloomberg


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Singapore

Regional Strategy China & Hong Kong – China’s economy consolidating strength, recovery in a moderate pace (Roy Chen) - Head of Research China’s top picks are: China Communications & Construction Co. Ltd. (1800.HK) and Agricultural Bank of

China (1288.HK); Head of Research Hong Kong’s top picks are: HSBC (5.HK) and AIA (1299.HK) - We overweight CSI300, HSCEI and HSI. PhillipETF recommends ChinaAMC CSI300 Index ETF (83188.HK) as a proxy for the A-

share CSI300, H-Share Index ETF (2828.HK) as a proxy for the H-share HSCEI, and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) as a proxy for HSI.

- PhillipCFD has long/short “H Shares Index HKD5 CFD” and long/short “FTSE China A50 Index USD1 CFD” - Phillip Unit Trust Department recommends Aberdeen China Opportunities SGD and Fidelity China Focus A USD for China

equity market investment. - Marketweight CN bonds & Underweight HK bonds In our last reports on China (25

th Oct) and HK (8

th Oct), we became Positive/Overweight (absolute/relative performance) on all 3 indices: the

CSI300, the HSCEI, and the HSI on attractive valuations and signs of economic bottoming, we maintain all these stances. Risk for the CSI300 is the spread news of increasing equity issuance ahead while catalysts would be structural reform announcements by the new leadership. As for the HSCEI and HSI, both indices have corrected slightly (on US fiscal cliff worries) after fairly good runs. But as our Global Macro team takes a constructive view on the issue, we maintain our ratings for both indices as we expect fund inflow to Hong Kong stock market to take full advantage of China’s economic recovery.

Hong Kong

Comtec Solar（712.HK）

Rating: Accumulate Previous close: HKD 1.02 Fair value: HKD 1.10 Summary

The operation results of Comtec has been experiencing obvious rebound, the high profit margin of its major products is the main reason of the results growth.

The financial indicators of Comtec also improved in report period, including gross profit margin as well as debt ratio. The operation condition is better than 1HY of 2012.

Comtec sold its branch company in recent time and stop expanding in other field. The income from this sale would provide enough fund to the company to focus on the research and sale of its main products.

Although there's a serious write-off in the beginning of 2012 and resulted into great loss, the good performance in 3rd quarter would still rise the possibility of results rebound in 2012.

The BVPS of Comtec in 2012 is CNY 1.46. We estimate that the operation of the company will be improved in the 2HY of 2012, the whole operation results in 2012 will be better than last estimation, the BVPS of 2012 will be CNY 1.49, the target price is HKD 1.1 in next 6 months under 0.6x PB, the rating is Accumulate.

Thailand

Hemaraj Land and Development – Company Update Recommendation: ACCUMULATE Previous close: Bt3.18 Fair value: Bt3.40

HEMRAJ”s management guided land sale target for 2012 is more likely to be achievable.

The power business generated increasingly impressive revenue.

HEMRAJ will likely enjoy the bull ride in 2013.

We maintain an ‘ACCUMULATE’ rating on HEMRAJ with a target price of Bt3.40.

http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/EconomicPulse/SG/Strategy20121123.pdf

http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/ResearchCoverage/HK/hk712-112312.pdf

http://internetfileserver.phillip.com.sg/POEMS/Stocks/Research/ResearchCoverage/TH/THHEMRAJ112312.pdf


23 November 2012

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Market News

US Argentina suffered a stinging blow late on Wednesday, when a New York federal judge, citing threats by the country's leaders to defy his

rulings in a decade-old dispute over defaulted sovereign bonds, ordered immediate payment. In a ruling delivered just as the United States headed off for its Thursday Thanksgiving holiday, US District Judge Thomas Griesa rejected Argentina's request to maintain his previous order halting payments to holdout investors who did not participate in two bond exchanges of defaulted sovereign debt. The ruling is the latest development in a litigation saga that has lasted more than 10 years and now appears to be favouring holdout bond investors such as Elliot Management Corp's NML Capital Ltd and Aurelius Capital Management. If Judge Griesa's ruling is upheld and Argentina chooses to defy him, US courts could ultimately inhibit debt payments to creditors who accepted the terms of the restructuring, out of consideration for investors who rejected Argentina's terms at the time. This would trigger a technical default on approximately US$24 billion worth of debt issued in the 2005 and 2010 exchanges. (Source: BT Online)

Singapore The government will try to bring business costs down, but firms here need to adapt to the new reality of a higher-cost environment - and

there are reasons to believe that companies can make the transition. This was the message delivered by Josephine Teo, Minister of State for Finance and Transport, to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) at the Enterprise 50 (E50) awards luncheon held yesterday at the Resorts World Sentosa Convention Centre. Later in the evening, the E50 awards gala dinner was attended by 1,300 guests including overall winner contractor Lian Soon Construction. The property and construction sector did well at the awards and S Iswaran, Minister in the Prime Minister's Office, elaborated further on Mrs Teo's theme. He said that the government was "committed to helping local companies make the transition" to the new environment. The enterprises, in turn, would have to be "adept and agile" to seize their opportunities and succeed. (Source: BT Online)

An executive condominium (EC) site at the intersection of Pasir Ris Drive 3 and Pasir Ris Rise was keenly contested, fetching a top bid of $207 million, or $331.10 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr). There were 10 bidders in all for the 99-year leasehold plot, the Housing and Development Board (HDB) said after the tender closed yesterday. Hao Yuan Investment, controlled by mainland China parties, put in the highest offer. This edged out World Class Investments' bid of $206.7 million, or $330.60 psf ppr. Ong Teck Hui, Jones Lang LaSalle's national director of research and consultancy, said Hao Yuan's bid was 14 per cent higher than the Watercolours EC site across the road, sold last October. The top bid exceeded his expectations. Mr Ong attributed the level of bidding activity to the site's choice location near the beach and other amenities like Pasir Ris Park and Downtown East. (Source: BT Online)

Hong Kong

HSBC's Flash China Purchasing Managers' Index, the earliest indicator of the nation's manufacturing activities, climbed to a 13-month high of 50.4 in November to, up from October's final reading of 49.5, HSBC Holdings PLC announced today. It's the first time in 13 months the index climbed above the 50 mark that demarcates expansion from contraction. The index is a gauge of manufacturing activity slanted more towards private and export-oriented firms. A sub-index of output rose to 51.3, also the highest since 2011 October. (Source: peopledaily.com.)

The Chinese currency Renminbi, or the yuan, weakened 10 basis points to 6.2918 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System. In China's foreign exchange spot market, the yuan is allowed to rise or fall by 1 percent from the central parity rate each trading day. The central parity rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar is based on a weighted average of prices before the opening of the market each business day. (Source: peopledaily.com.)

Japanese exports to China continued to decline in October amid tension over the Diaoyu Islands, while China's slowing economic growth and sluggish demand in the debt-troubled European Union also took their toll on Japanese exports. Japanese shipments to China, its largest export market, slumped 11.6 percent year-on-year in October to 948 billion yen ($11.55 billion), compared with a 14.1 percent year-on-year drop in September, according to Japan's Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, Japanese imports from China rose 3.6 percent year-on-year to 1,354 billion yen, yielding a trade deficit of 406.5 billion yen, the eighth consecutive monthly deficit. China's slowing economic growth this year reduced demand for Japanese products, while the EU debt crisis and the US economic downturn damped Japanese exports as well as exports to China for manufacturing and re-export to these two major markets. (Source: peopledaily.com.)

Thailand Foreign investors remained net buyers of Thai shares to the tune of Bt14,482mn on Thu due largely to the big-lot transaction of 400mn

shares in CPALL worth Bt13,800mn. (Source: Bisnews)

Government revenue topped Bt150bn in Oct 2012, up 21% from Bt26bn in the same period last year due chiefly to higher value-added tax and auto excise tax collections, reflecting continued growth in the domestic economy, according to the Fiscal Policy Office. (Source: Krungthep Turakij)

The Thai cabinet on Thu imposed the Internal Security Act for nine days from today to Nov 30, 2012 in three districts of Bangkok namely

Dusit, Promprap Sattruphai and Phra Nakhon to handle the anti-government mass rally of the Pitak Siam group scheduled for Nov 24. Meanwhile, the Constitution Court on Thu rejected three petitions filed against the Pitak Siam group seeking to block its anti-government protest on Sat, according to a court spokesman. (Sources: Infoquest, Krungthep Turakij)

US stock markets and NYMEX were closed on Thu for the Thanksgiving holiday.


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Indonesia Possibility of economic overheating within the next two years is very small, but it can occur due to slower growth and infrastructure

development. Director of the Directorate of the Monetary Policy at Bank Indonesia said currently there is no indicator that Indonesia's economy is going to overheat. Overheating occurs due to rapid economic movement, shown by too drastic price hike and large deficit in balance of payments. It is also caused by economic growth which exceeds capacity, high credit growth and bubble asset prices as well as large fiscal deficits. Based on data from Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance, January-October inflation reached 3.66 percent, the economic growth in the third quarter 2012 reached 6.29 percent, the budget deficit as of 7 November 2012 reached 0.7 percent of Gross Domestic Product and the balance of payments in third quarter 2012 deficit to USD 3.01 billion. Meanwhile Fitch Rating in a press release on Wednesday also said Indonesia's debt ratings remain at BBB level with a stable outlook. These ratings indicate strong economic growth, high investment and declining of debt ratio and supportive macroeconomic policy. External financial pressure and weakening of credit can be an obstacle, but it does not affect Indonesia rating. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

The national sharia banking industry grew 36.7 percent in the year to September 2012 from a corresponding period a year earlier, according to the central bank. Indonesia now has 11 sharia commercial banks with 24 sharia business units and 156 sharia financing bank. The sharia banking industry also has low net non-performing financing (NPF) of 1.81 percent. The ratio of financing disbursement to third party fund placement in the national sharia banking industry is relatively high at 102.1 percent. Looking ahead, the sharia banking industry will continue to grow thanks to the expansion of sharia financing, along with the higher growth of the domestic economy despite the financial woes in Europe. (Source: Antara News)

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka has upped Treasury guarantees in 2012 and has announced plans to increase such spending in the future, helping the state

deficit spend without expanding the officially defined budget gap and the debt ratio. Up to the third quarter of 2012 the Treasury has also issued guarantees of 289 billion rupees or about 3.8 percent of GDP estimated for 2012, to various state agencies and some private firms. Sri Lanka has a debt to gross domestic product (debt to GDP) ratio of about 80 percent, down from over 100 percent a decade ago. Over the first three quarters of 2012 83 billion rupees of new guarantees or about 1.1 percent of GDP have been issued to domestic banks for state entities to borrow. Another 23 billion rupee guarantee had been given to a Dubai based bank for a loan given to Sri Lankan Airlines. (lbo.lk)

Australia ANZ chief executive Mike Smith has warned Australia risks losing out on a $3 trillion economic opportunity in the Asian century if it does

not urgently address productivity concerns, and has launched a stinging critique of what he says are wrong messages for the region, such as the Gillard government's ban on live cattle exports to Indonesia. Mr Smith said tax and labour reforms were critical and warned that incorrect policy settings risked Australia not being able to finance the $3 trillion that ANZ estimated Australia needed over the next 20 years to seize the resource and agricultural opportunities presented by the rising Asian middle class. Source: The Australian

Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey has promised a Coalition government would be “predictable and stable” and would not engage in tax system reviews as the Labor government has. Slamming “fiscal embarrassments” like the mining tax and changes to tax perks for workers, and “blatant tax grabs” like the flood levy, Mr Hockey declared that the Coalition wanted to “make life boring”. Source: Financial Review

Treasurer Wayne Swan is making clear his objections to the states seeking to bolster budgets with higher ¬mining royalties, which in net terms can further reduce the federal government’s already disappointing income from the new minerals resource rent tax (MRRT). Source: Financial Review


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Dollar Index -0.29% Gold 1,729.55 -0.01%

Crude oil +0.66% US Treasury 10yr Yield 1.680 +0.00%

DJI +0.38% S&P 500 INDEX 1,391.03 +0.23%

SHCOMP -0.72%

Source: Bloomberg

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

Nov-11

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep-12

70

75

80

85

Nov-1

1

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Nov-11

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep-12

70

80

90

100

110

120

Nov-11

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep-12

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

Nov-11

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep-12

Nov-12

1900

2150

2400

2650

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-1

2

Feb

-12

Mar-1

2

Apr-1

2

May-1

2

Jun-1

2

Jul-1

2

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-1

2

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

Nov-11

Jan-1

2

Mar-1

2

May-1

2

Jul-1

2

Sep-12


23 November 2012

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Source: Bloomberg

World Index

JCI 0.43% 4,335.93

HSI 1.02% 21,743.20

KLCI -0.27% 1,618.55

NIKKEI 1.56% 9,366.80

KOSPI 0.82% 1,899.50

SET 0.24% 1,279.51

SHCOMP -0.72% 2,015.61

SENSEX 0.31% 18,517.34

ASX 1.00% 4,413.07

FTSE 100 0.68% 5,791.03

DOW 0.38% 12,836.89

S&P 500 0.23% 1,391.03

NASDAQ 0.34% 2,926.55

COLOMBO 0.86% 5,406.65

STI 0.89% 2,986.63


23 November 2012

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Singapore

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('k) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)

SINGAP TELECOMM 3.14 +0.00 +0.000 100,427 NOBLE GROUP LTD 1.08 +1.42 +0.015 61,072

KEPPEL CORP LTD 10.55 +2.73 +0.280 78,936 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD 0.62 +1.64 +0.010 39,049

UNITED OVERSEAS 18.03 +1.58 +0.280 76,140 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD 3.14 +0.00 +0.000 32,054

NOBLE GROUP LTD 1.08 +1.42 +0.015 65,729 THAI BEVERAGE PCL 0.41 +2.50 +0.010 31,085

FRASER AND NEAVE 9.42 +0.21 +0.020 50,953 OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD 1.69 -0.59 -0.010 27,883

SEMBCORP MARINE 4.38 +3.06 +0.130 48,467 YOMA STRATEGIC HLDGS LTD 0.66 -2.22 -0.015 24,311

OLAM INTERNATION 1.69 -0.59 -0.010 47,162 ASIASONS CAPITAL LTD 0.73 NA NA 21,510

DBS GROUP HLDGS 13.89 +1.31 +0.180 36,763 LIONGOLD CORP LTD 1.07 +0.47 +0.005 20,113

SEMBCORP INDUS 4.98 +3.97 +0.190 35,808 YANGZIJIANG SHIPBUILDING 0.89 +2.30 +0.020 18,105

GLOBAL LOGISTIC 2.48 -1.98 -0.050 29,711 NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES LTD 1.12 +5.19 +0.055 16,717

Hong Kong


CHINA MOBILE 88.20 +1.61 +1.40 1,717,789 BANK OF CHINA-H 3.18 +0.00 +0.00 312,186

CHINA CONST BA-H 5.88 +0.68 +0.04 1,531,852 IND & COMM BK-H 5.20 +0.97 +0.05 277,939

IND & COMM BK-H 5.20 +0.97 +0.05 1,442,535 CHINA CONST BA-H 5.88 +0.68 +0.04 261,204

HSBC HLDGS PLC 76.55 +0.72 +0.55 997,423 GCL-POLY ENERGY 1.30 +0.78 +0.01 103,565

BANK OF CHINA-H 3.18 +0.00 +0.00 990,775 AGRICULTURAL-H 3.35 +0.00 +0.00 99,129

TENCENT HOLDINGS 259.60 +0.62 +1.60 754,345 EVERGRANDE REAL 3.49 -2.24 -0.08 90,686

PETROCHINA CO-H 10.28 +0.98 +0.10 754,268 PETROCHINA CO-H 10.28 +0.98 +0.10 73,448

PING AN INSURA-H 58.80 +1.03 +0.60 710,146 CHINA TELECOM-H 4.33 +1.88 +0.08 68,047

GALAXY ENTERTAIN 28.85 +2.67 +0.75 663,304 SEMICONDUCTOR MA 0.37 +2.82 +0.01 61,386

AIA GROUP LTD 30.45 +0.66 +0.20 656,698 CHINA PETROLEU-H 8.26 +1.60 +0.13 58,803

Thailand


KRUNG THAI BANK 17.10 -3.93 -0.70 2,415,581 G J STEEL PCL 0.10 +11.11 +0.01 743,623

BANGKOK BANK PUB 178.00 +1.14 +2.00 1,454,919 JASMINE INTL PCL 4.82 +3.88 +0.18 229,422

ENERGY EARTH PCL 7.65 -0.65 -0.05 1,185,467 NAWARAT PATANAKA 1.44 +8.27 +0.11 227,052

CP ALL PCL 39.00 -2.50 -1.00 1,145,420 BANGKOK LAND PCL 1.25 +3.31 +0.04 225,114

SIAM COMM BK PCL 159.00 +1.27 +2.00 1,130,444 ENERGY EARTH PCL 7.65 -0.65 -0.05 153,158

JASMINE INTL PCL 4.82 +3.88 +0.18 1,087,553 NATURAL PARK PCL 0.03 +50.00 +0.01 148,491

KASIKORNBANK PCL 181.00 +1.12 +2.00 1,059,001 KRUNG THAI BANK 17.10 -3.93 -0.70 139,517

ADVANCED INFO 198.00 +1.02 +2.00 1,016,058 INTL ENGINEERING 0.01 -50.00 -0.01 114,652

PTT PCL 309.00 -0.32 -1.00 749,009 POWER LINE ENGIN 1.76 +2.33 +0.04 96,262

BTS GROUP HOLDIN 6.25 +1.63 +0.10 567,862 BTS GROUP HOLDIN 6.25 +1.63 +0.10 91,299

Indonesia

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('mn) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)

GUDANG GARAM TBK 51,000 6.58 3,150.0 372,483 SUGIH ENERGY 265 17.78 40.0 249,511

TELEKOMUNIKASI 9,250 0.54 50.0 281,193 BAKRIELAND DEV 56 3.70 2.0 170,720

BANK RAKYAT INDO 7,100 -0.70 -50.0 167,394 TRADA MARITIME 1,060 0.95 10.0 145,732

TRADA MARITIME 1,060 0.95 10.0 153,685 AGIS TBK PT 600 9.09 50.0 130,349

SEMEN GRESIK TBK 14,450 -1.70 -250.0 147,572 PAKUWON JATI TBK 235 2.17 5.0 103,834

ASTRA INTERNATIO 7,750 0.65 50.0 133,723 LIPPO KARAWACI 950 2.15 20.0 97,307

LIPPO KARAWACI 950 2.15 20.0 91,096 SENTUL CITY TBK 194 1.57 3.0 70,745

BANK NEGARA INDO 3,575 -0.69 -25.0 81,369 KALBE FARMA 1,020 3.03 30.0 67,860

AGIS TBK PT 600 9.09 50.0 74,162 BANK PEMBANGUNAN 385 4.05 15.0 54,527

XL AXIATA TBK PT 6,300 0.00 0.0 68,585 ENERGI MEGA PERS 79 0.00 0.0 54,491

Sri Lanka


AITKEN SPENCE PL 122.00 3.39 4.00 113,412 LANKA IOC PLC 19.60 3.16 0.60 1,265

SAMPATH BANK PLC 187.00 0.38 0.70 48,723 AITKEN SPENCE PL 122.00 3.39 4.00 930

SEYLAN BNK-NON V 35.00 4.79 1.60 30,160 SEYLAN BNK-NON V 35.00 4.79 1.60 864

LANKA IOC PLC 19.60 3.16 0.60 24,306 NATION LANKA FIN 9.20 2.22 0.20 572

LANKA FLOORTILES 67.00 2.76 1.80 8,368 BROWNS INVESTMEN 3.60 2.86 0.10 484

JOHN KEELLS HLDG 212.00 0.90 1.90 6,886 SMB LEASING - NV 0.40 0.00 0.00 431

NATION LANKA FIN 9.20 2.22 0.20 5,251 AMANA TAKAFUL 1.50 -6.25 -0.10 331

COMMERCIAL BK 101.90 0.39 0.40 5,049 PC HOUSE LTD 5.10 -5.56 -0.30 307

LANKA VENTURES 30.00 0.00 0.00 4,897 PANASIAN POWER L 2.40 0.00 0.00 304

ROYAL CERAMICS 94.90 0.96 0.90 3,207 SAMPATH BANK PLC 187.00 0.38 0.70 261

Source: Bloomberg


23 November 2012

10 of 16

Australia

Top 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('mn) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('mn)

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK 23.640 -0.13 -0.03 246.60 BLUESCOPE STEEL LTD 0.500 11.11 0.05 58.74

BHP BILLITON LTD 33.690 0.99 0.33 213.13 TELSTRA CORP LTD 4.270 1.91 0.08 46.37

TELSTRA CORP LTD 4.270 1.91 0.08 197.27 LYNAS CORP LTD 0.675 7.14 0.05 44.25

WESTPAC BANKING CORP 24.830 0.94 0.23 164.78 BEADELL RESOURCES LTD 1.050 1.94 0.02 27.47

AUST AND NZ BANKING GROUP 23.740 0.94 0.22 164.45 FAIRFAX MEDIA LTD 0.410 2.50 0.01 24.13

COMMONWEALTH BANK OF 58.670 1.36 0.79 158.19 FORTESCUE METALS GROUP 3.800 -2.56 -0.10 19.58

RIO TINTO LTD 57.080 0.23 0.13 115.06 ALUMINA LTD 0.870 4.19 0.04 18.35

WESFARMERS LTD 34.940 1.63 0.56 98.75 CSR LTD 1.910 3.52 0.07 12.28

QBE INSURANCE GROUP LTD 10.760 -0.28 -0.03 82.19 TABCORP HOLDINGS LTD 2.730 1.11 0.03 11.82

FORTESCUE METALS GROUP 3.800 -2.56 -0.10 74.71 INCITEC PIVOT LTD 3.120 2.63 0.08 11.65

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Price of S$1 Price of US$1

GOLD SPOT (US$/OZ) -0.01 -0.10 1,729.55 0.7859 1.0382

SILVER SPOT (US$/OZ) -0.06 -0.02 33.35 0.8139 0.9976

WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Price (US$/bbl) +0.66 +0.57 86.93 0.6344 1.2859

0.5122 1.5927

0.8159 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last 5.0880 6.2290

Malaysian Rubber Board Standard (MYR/kg) +0.29 +2.50 853.75 6.3248 7.7508

PALM OIL (MYR/Metric Tonne) -1.82 -40.50 2,182.50 67.2800 82.4700

885.9008 1085.7600

Index % Chg Chg Last 2.4974 3.0602

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT -0.29 -0.23 80.70 25.0571 30.7000

Source: Bloomberg

JAPANESE YEN

KOREAN WON

MALAYSIAN RINGGIT

THAI BAHT

US DOLLAR

CHINA RENMINBI

HONG KONG DOLLAR

CANADIAN DOLLAR

EURO

BRITISH POUND

Currencies

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Commodities & Currencies

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Months 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07

6 Months 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13

2 Years 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.30

3 Years 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.42

5 Years 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.79

10 Years 1.68 1.67 1.59 1.81

30 Years 2.81 2.81 2.72 2.97

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths)

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs)

US Treasury Yields

1.62

1.41

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://w w w .valubond.com


23 November 2012

11 of 16

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior

11/26/2012 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct -- 0.00 11/23/2012 CPI (MOM) - NSA Oct 0.20% 0.60%

11/26/2012 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Nov -- 1.8 11/23/2012 CPI (YoY) Oct 4.50% 4.70%

11/27/2012 Durable Goods Orders Oct -0.70% 9.90% 11/26/2012 Industrial Production MoM SA Oct 6.50% -1.80%

11/27/2012 Durables Ex Transportation Oct -0.60% 2.00% 11/26/2012 Industrial Production YoY Oct -0.10% -2.50%

11/27/2012 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Oct -- 0.00% 11/30/2012 Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) Oct -- 16.50%

11/27/2012 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Oct -- -0.30% 11/30/2012 Credit Card Bad Debts Oct -- 20.1M

11/27/2012 S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA Sep -- 0.49% 11/30/2012 Credit Card Billings Oct -- 3096.2M

11/27/2012 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY Sep 3.00% 2.03% 11/30/2012 M1 Money Supply (YoY) Oct -- 3.20%

11/27/2012 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YOY% 3Q -- 1.22% 11/30/2012 M2 Money Supply (YoY) Oct -- 6.10%

11/27/2012 S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind Sep -- 145.87 12/4/2012 Electronics Sector Index Nov -- 47.5

11/27/2012 S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI 3Q -- 132.54 12/4/2012 Purchasing Managers Index Nov -- 48.3

11/27/2012 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Nov -- -7 12/5/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 5-Dec -- --

11/27/2012 Consumer Confidence Nov 73.2 72.2 12/5/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 5-Dec -- --

11/27/2012 House Price Index MoM Sep -- -- 12/5/2012 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 5-Dec -- --

11/27/2012 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 3Q -- 1.80% 12/7/2012 Foreign Reserves Nov -- $254.22B


11/23/2012 Foreign Reserves 16-Nov -- $180.5B 11/27/2012 Exports YoY% Oct -- 15.20%

11/23/2012 Forw ard Contracts 16-Nov -- $25.9B 11/27/2012 Imports YoY% Oct -- 14.90%

23-28 NOV Customs Exports (YoY) Oct 20.00% 0.20% 11/27/2012 Trade Balance Oct -- -45.2B

23-28 NOV Customs Imports (YoY) Oct 10.10% -7.70% 11/29/2012 Retail Sales - Value (YoY) Oct -- 9.40%

23-28 NOV Customs Trade Balance Oct $60M $1153M 11/29/2012 Retail Sales - Volume (YoY) Oct -- 8.50%

11/28/2012Bloomberg Thailand Economic

Survey for November11/30/2012 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY) Oct -- 10.30%

11/28/2012 Benchmark Interest Rate 28-Nov 2.75% 2.75% 11/30/2012 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY) Oct -- 11.00%

11/28/2012 Total Capacity Utilization ISIC Oct -- 64.5 11/30/2012 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY) Oct -- 10.90%

11/28/2012Mfg. Production Index ISIC NSA

(YoY)Oct -- -13.68 11/30/2012 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$ Oct -- -22.0B

11/28/2012 Mfg. Production Index ISIC SA Oct -- 165.9 12/5/2012 Purchasing Managers Index Nov -- 50.5

11/30/2012 Foreign Reserves 23-Nov -- -- 12/7/2012 Foreign Currency Reserves Nov -- $301.7B

11/30/2012 Forw ard Contracts 23-Nov -- -- 12/11/2012 Hong Kong Manpow er Survey 1Q -- 12%

11/30/2012 Total Exports YOY% Oct -- -0.10% 12/13/2012 Industrial Production (YoY) 3Q -- -2.90%

11/30/2012 Total Exports in US$ Million Oct -- $20477M 12/13/2012 Producer Price (YoY) 3Q -- -0.70%

11/30/2012 Total Imports YOY% Oct -- -7.20% 12/18/2012 Unemployment Rate SA Nov -- 3.40%

US Singapore

Economic Announcement

Thailand Hong Kong

Source: Bloomberg

Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg


23 November 2012

12 of 16


12-20 NOV Total Local Auto Sales Oct -- 102111 11/30/2012 CPI Moving Average (YoY) Nov -- 6.80%

12-20 NOV Total Motorcycle Sales Oct -- 620499 11/30/2012 CPI (YoY) Nov -- 8.90%

11/29/2012Bloomberg Indonesia Economic

Survey for November12/6/2012 Repurchase Rate 6-Dec -- --

12/3/2012 Inflation (YoY) Nov -- 4.61% 12/6/2012 Reverse Repo Rate 6-Dec -- --

12/3/2012 Inflation NSA (MoM) Nov -- 0.16% 10-12 DEC Exports YoY% Oct -- -6.60%

12/3/2012 Core Inflation (YoY) Nov -- 4.59% 10-12 DEC Imports YoY% Oct -- -25.40%

12/3/2012 Exports (YoY) Oct -- -9.40% 14-31 DEC GDP (YoY) 3Q -- 6.40%

12/3/2012 Total Imports (YoY) Oct -- 1.20% 12/31/2012 CPI Moving Average (YoY) Dec -- --

12/3/2012 Total Trade Balance Oct -- $553M 12/31/2012 CPI (YoY) Dec -- --

03-07 DEC Danareksa Consumer Confidence Nov -- 93.2

03-06 DEC Foreign Reserves Nov -- $110.30B

03-06 DEC Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) Nov -- 1025.91T

03-04 DEC Consumer Confidence Index Nov -- 119.5

07-13 DEC Money Supply - M1 (YoY) Oct -- 21.30%

07-13 DEC Money Supply - M2 (YoY) Oct -- 18.20%

Date Statistic For Survey Prior

11/27/2012 CBAHIA House Affordability 3Q -- 62.5

11/28/2012 Construction Work Done 3Q -- -0.20%

11/29/2012 HIA New Home Sales (MoM) Oct -- -3.70%

11/29/2012 Private Capital Expenditure 3Q -- 3.40%

11/30/2012 Private Sector Credit MoM% Oct -- 0.30%

11/30/2012 Private Sector Credit YoY% Oct -- 4.00%

12/3/2012 AiG Performance of Mfg Index Nov -- 45.2

12/3/2012 TD Securities Inflation MoM% Nov -- 0.10%

12/3/2012 TD Securities Inflation YoY% Nov -- 2.40%

12/3/2012 RPData-Rismark House PX Actual Nov -- -1.00%

12/3/2012 Company Operating Profit QoQ% 3Q -- -0.70%

12/3/2012 Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) Oct -- 0.50%

12/3/2012 Inventories 3Q -- 0.60%

12/3/2012 ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) Nov -- -4.60%

12/3/2012 RBA Commodity Price Index Au Nov -- 87.3

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

Australia

Sri Lanka

Source: Bloomberg

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BUY >15% upside from the current price

HOLD Trade within ± 15% from the current price

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