regional o˜ce for asia and the paci˚c · issue 46, 18 january 2012 bhutan, trashigang (09 january...

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Issue 46, 19 January 2012


Highlights of the week

Over the past week, staple food commodity prices remained relatively stable except for:

- In Afghanistan, wheat prices dropped by 3 percent but were 2 percent above the prices observed a month ago.

- Chicken prices in Indonesia increased by 7 percent and were 13 and 6 percent above the prices recorded a month and a year ago, respectively.

- In Myanmar, maize prices dropped by 5 percent but were 15 percent above the prices observed three months ago. Groundnut oil prices fell by 4 percent but were 6 percent above the prices recorded three months ago. Soybean prices fell by 5 percent and were 16 percent below the prices recorded a month ago. Soybean prices have been gradually falling since March 2011.

- Pork prices in Viet Nam fell by 2 percent but were 2 percent above the prices observed a month ago.

Policy Prices


Regional levelIndia and China signed a pact on Tuesday to set up a border management mechanism to maintain peace along the boundary between the two neigh-bours (Live Mint, 17 January 2012).

National levelThe Agricultural Development Fund in Afghanistan provided timely low-interest loans to smallholder potato farmers in Bamyan (drought area) to improve the quality of agriculture inputs (high quality seed and fertilizers mainly) which resulted in larger yields. The estimated market value for potatoes is USD 4.2 million.

In Afghanistan, snow avalanches had cut o� 14 of the province's 28 districts from the provincial capital Faizabad, preventing people from accessing markets to get food for themselves and their cattle. Although food assistance has been distributed in advance to allow people to stock food during the winter, it is expected that further distribution will be needed (Integrated Regional Informa-tion Networks, 17 January 2012).Heavy rain continues in several regencies in Banten (West Java) in Indonesia a�ecting over 17,000 families and it is expected that within the next few weeks, Greater Jakarta will be hit by �ve year cyclical heavy �ooding (OCHA and Jakarta Post, 17 January 2012).In Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation has declared more than 30 provinces in the North as cold disaster zones (Government of Thailand, 18 January 2012).

Weather conditions


Price Monitoring Model

The benchmark future price for February of IND 23.43 is inside a benchmark band of IND 23.82 – 23.04 per kilo. If prices follow normal seasonal patterns during the next three months, the model forecasts that rice retail nominal prices for India are likely to slightly increase and then fall within a benchmark band of IND 24.40 – 22.40 per kilo.

From July 2011 and December 2011, actual prices actual prices have been consistently above the average past prices (see how the green line is above the purple line), implying that those prices were relatively high compared to the level in the past four years. Typically, towards the end of the year, average past prices show a seasonal increase (see purple line); however, we observe a sudden drop in actual prices (green line) from November 2011 to December 2011 (see how “actual price” series falls from September to November while the “average past price” series shows the normal increase). Harvesting of rice for the Kharif season (main season) started in September and will be �nished in January 2012. Initial estimates for the 2011-12 Kharif season already point to a record production of rice. In December 2011, actual prices were outside the benchmark band with a 3.4 percent di�erence. However, the graph also shows that from December 2011 to January 2012 actual prices follow “normal seasonal patterns” (see how the green line is moving similarly to the purple line within the period of time mentioned before).

* Retail nominal prices have been averaged from 4 market points (Chennai, Delhi, Mumbai and Patna). By using national average retail prices instead of Delhi retail prices, we intend to provide additional information for market analysis.

IN FOCUS: INDIAPrice Forecast (Rice, National Average*)

Technical notes

The ESA Price Monitoring Model is a simple tool designed to assist policy makers, farmers and traders in assessing whether

recent price trends are in line with those typically observed in the past. The purpose of the model is to determine whether

short-term price movements of a commodity exceed a benchmark which takes into consideration seasonality, in�ation and

historic variability. The model uses only data on past prices and the consumer price index (CPI) to capture these characteris-

tics. It establishes an expected level of price for the following month along with a range of uncertainty generated by past

deviations from expected prices. Price movements can be interpreted as “excessive” if prices fall outside the benchmark

band. The di�erence between the actual price and the “benchmark price” (1 month in advance) that was forecasted for that

same month is also calculated by the model although not shown in the graph. An additional feature of the model is to

show the current level of prices relative to an average of past prices during the past four years (adjusted for in�ation). For

details on the model, please see: http://www.foodsec.org/web/publications/briefs/

23.82

24.07

24.40

23.04

22.86

22.40

21.77

22.12

22.99

23.4323.48

24.02

23.21

23.43

21.8521.78

22.31

22.52

22.70

23.26 23.30

21.85

22.61

23.3223.25

23.51

23.23 23.25

21

22

23

24

25

July 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12

INR

/kg

Benchmark band

Benchmark price (1 month in advance)

Average past price

Actual price

Price forecast


1

Country Highlights

The Agricultural Development Fund provided timely low-interest loans to smallholder potato farmers in Bamyan (drought area) to improve the quality of agriculture inputs (high quality seed and fertilizers mainly). Credit was channelled through �nancial and non-�nancial institutions and its e�cient and timely allocation resulted in larger yields. The estimated market value for potatoes is USD 4.2 million (USAID, 18 January 2012).

Policy+

AFGHANISTAN, Kabul (16 January 2012)Retail nominal prices

Data sources: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock and World Food Programme (WFP).


Week of 16-Jan-12

Food item Market

Price (AFA/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice local Kabul 35.0 0.0% 2.9% 0.7% na

Wheat Kabul 18.5 -2.6% 2.1% 0.0% na

Maize Kabul 19.0 0.0% 11.8% 15.2% na

Chicken Kabul 130.0 0.0% 8.3% 8.3% naCooking oil (AFA/Lt) Kabul 86.0 -1.1% 2.1% 0.6% na

→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease

% change

0

30

60

90

120

150

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

14 N

ov

21 N

ov

28 N

ov

05 D

ec

12 D

ec

19 D

ec

26 D

ec

9 Ja

n 12

16 Ja

n 12

AFA

/ kg

weekly data

Wheat Maize Rice (local) Chicken Cooking oil

- Wheat prices dropped by 3 percent over the past week but were 2 percent above the prices observed a month ago.- Maize prices were 15 percent above the prices observed three months ago.

2


Prices of staple food remained unchanged from last week. - Rice and wheat prices were both 18 percent below the prices recorded a year ago.- Chicken prices were 14 percent above the prices observed a month ago but 17 percent below the prices observed a year ago.- Soybean oil prices are 19 percent above the prices recorded a year ago.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

BANGLADESH, Dhaka (16 January 2012)Retail nominal prices

Data source: Ministry of Agriculture.


Week of 16-Jan-12

Food item Market

Price (BDT/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Coarse rice Dhaka 29.0 0.0% -1.7% -6.8% -17.7%

Wheat flour Dhaka 27.5 0.0% 0.9% -4.3% -18.3%

Chicken broiler Dhaka 140.0 14.3% 25.1% 23.8% -16.5%

Soybean oil (BDT/lt) Dhaka 124.0 -1.2% 10.2% 13.8% 18.7%


% change

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

7-N

ov

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

5-D

ec

12-D

ec-1

1

19-D

ec-1

1

26-D

ec-1

1

2-Ja

n-12

9-Ja

n-12

16-J

an-1

2

BD

T / k

g

weekly data

Rice (coarse) Wheat (flour) Chicken boiler Soybean Oil

3


BHUTAN, Trashigang (09 January 2012)Retail nominal prices


- Red rice prices fell by 4.3 percent from the previous week and were 15 percent below the prices observed a year ago.

Country Highlights

Data source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forests.

Bird �u has been successfully contained in the labour camps of Changedaphu (Kalabazaar) (Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 18 January 2012).

Policy+

Week of 9-Jan-12

Food item Market

Price (BTN/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Red Rice National av 55.0 -4.3% -5.4% -8.3% -15.4%

% change

0

20

40

60

80

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

il 11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

05-D

ec

12-D

ec

19-D

ec

26-D

ec

02-J

an

09-J

an

BTN

/ kg

weekly data.

Red rice

4


CAMBODIA, Phnom Penh (16 January 2012)Wholesale nominal prices


- Rice prices (mix variety) were 33 percent above the prices recorded a year ago. Prices for Phkar Khney rice variety were 4 percent below the prices observed a month ago while prices for Neangminh variety were 23 percent below the prices observed a month and three months ago.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

Data source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Fisheries.

Week of 16-Jan-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (KHR/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (mix)* Phnom Pehn 2,400 0.0% 4.3% 9.1% 33.3%

Rice (Phkar Khney) Phnom Pehn 2,700 0.0% -3.6% -3.6% na

Rice (Neangminh) Phnom Pehn 2,000 0.0% -23.1% -23.1% na

Chicken Phnom Pehn 22,500 0.0% 2.3% 2.3% na

Soybean oil Phnom Pehn 6,800 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% na

* Most recent data available from 28-Nov-2011


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Mar

11

Apr

i 11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

7-N

ov

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

5-D

ec

12-D

ec

19-D

ec

26-D

ec

9-Ja

n-12

16-J

an-1

2

KH

R /

kg

Weekly data

Rice (mix)* Rice milled (Phkar Khney) Rice (Neangminh) Soybean

5

CHINA, Beijing (09January 2012)Retail and wholesale nominal prices



Staple food prices in Beijing market have remained stable since early 2011. - Wheat �our prices were 2 percent above the prices observed both a month and three months ago.

Country Highlights

China aims to expand its foreign trade by around 10 percent year-on-year in 2012. Compared with January of 2011, year-on-year export growth in December was down by 24.2 percentage points to 13.4 percent. Among the policy responses, Chinese government is considering to reduce import tari�s and/or stabilizing export growth by improving tax rebate and insur-ance policies and providing more �nancial support for small trade companies (Xinhua, 14 January 2012).

Policy+

Data source: Beijing Municipal Bureau of Grain.

Week of 9-Jan-12

Food item Market

Price (RMB/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Non-Glutinous Rice Beijing 5.4 -0.4% -1.0% -0.3% na

Fuqiang Wheat Flour Beijing 3.6 0.6% 2.1% 2.3% na

Chicken (w) Beijing 15.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% na

% change

→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease (w) wholesale prices

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

7-N

ov

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

5-D

ec

12-D

ec

19-D

ec

26-D

ec

02 Ja

n 12

09 Ja

n 12

RM

B /

kg

Weekly data

Rice (non-glutinous ) Wheat flour (Fuqiang) Chiken Soybean (RMB/lt)

6


- In Delhi market, rice and wheat prices remained unchanged over the past week.- Rice prices were 4 percent above the prices registered a year ago. - Wheat prices were 6 percent above the prices observed a year ago.

Country Highlights

- According the Economic and Political Weekly, the latest National Sample Survey data for 2009-10 (66th Round) show a further shift away from food to non-food items in all expenditure categories across both rural and urban areas. This analysis of changes across three rounds (1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10) reveals that the pace of change accelerated between 2004-05 and 2009-10 (India Environment Portal, 14 January 2012).

- According to a media report, India has allowed overseas sale of common rice beyond 2 MMT to make room for the winter harvest. On Jan. 1, India's rice stocks at government warehouses stood at 29.8 MMT, above a target of 11.8 MMT (Reuters, 17 January 2012).

Policy+

INDIA, Delhi (16 January 2012)Retail nominal prices

Data source: Ministry of Consumer A�airs and Public Food Distribution.


Week of 16-Jan-12

Food item Market

Price (INR/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice New Delhi 24.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2%

Wheat New Delhi 16.0 0.0% 6.7% 6.7% 6.2%


% change

0

10

20

30

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

7-N

ov

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

5-D

ec

12-D

ec

19-D

ec

26-D

ec

2-Ja

n-12

9-Ja

n-12

16-J

an-1

2

INR

/ kg

Weekly data

Rice Wheat

7


INDONESIA, National Average (16 January 2012)Retail nominal prices


- Rice prices were 12 percent above the prices recorded a year ago.- After a gradual drop since early September, in chicken prices started to increase again on mid-December. Over the past week, chicken prices increased by 7 percent and were 13 and 6 percent above the prices recorded a month and a year ago, respectively.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

Data source: Ministry of Trade.


Food item Market

Price (IDR/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (medium quality) National av 7,991 0.3% 3.3% 4.4% 12.2%

Wheat flour National av 7,611 -0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0%

Chicken National av 27,004 -7.2% 12.5% 9.4% 6.4%

Soybean (local) National av 8,950 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 2.7%


0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

28,000

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

7-N

ov

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

5-D

ec

12-D

ec

19-D

ec

26-D

ec

2-Ja

n-12

9-Ja

n-12

16-J

an-1

2

IDR

/ kg

Weekly data

Rice (medium quality) Wheat flour Chicken Soybean (local)

8


MYANMAR, Yangon and Mandalay (16 January 2012)Wholesale nominal prices


- Maize prices dropped by 5 percent over the past week but were 15 percent above the prices observed three months ago.- Groundnut oil prices fell by 4 percent over the past week but were 6 percent above the prices recorded three months ago.- Soybean prices fell by 5 percent over the past week and were 16 percent below the prices recorded a month ago. Soybean prices have been gradually falling since March 2011.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

Data source: E-Trade Myanmar.


Food item Market

Price (MMK/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (Manawthukha FQ) Yangoon 276 0.3% -2.5% -4.4% na

Wheat (Monywa Origin) Mandalay 453 0.4% -3.6% -1.4% na

Maize Mandalay 184 -4.5% 12.4% 14.6% na

Groundnut oil (Special) Yangoon 2,097 -3.8% 3.2% 6.1% na

Soybean (Theik pan) Yangoon 437 -4.8% -16.2% -12.6% na

Palm oil Mandalay 1,032 -1.3% 1.7% 2.6% na


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

7 N

ov

14 N

ov

21 N

ov

28 N

ov

05 D

ec

12 D

ec

19 D

ec

26 D

ec

2 Ja

n 12

9 Ja

n 12

16 Ja

n 12

MM

K/k

g

Weekly data

Rice (Manawthukha FQ) Maize Wheat (Monywa Origin)Groundnut oil (Special) Soybean (Theik pan) Palm oil

9


PHILIPPINES, National average and Metro Manila (16 January 2012)Retail nominal prices


Country Highlights

Policy+

Data source: Department of Agriculture.


Food item Market

Price (PHP/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (regular milled)* National av 31.6 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 2.2%

Rice (well milled) * National av 35.0 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 2.0%

Rice (regular milled) Metro Manila 35.0 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 1.9%

Rice (well milled) Metro Manila 30.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Corn (white) * National av 19.4 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% 2.2%

* Most recent data available from 09-Jan-12


0

10

20

30

40

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

7-N

ov

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

5-D

ec

12-D

ec

19-D

ec

26 D

ec

2 Ja

n 12

9 Ja

n 12

PH

P /

kg

Weekly data

Rice (regular milled) National av Rice (well milled) National av Corn (white) National av

- Overall, prices of staple food commodities remained largely stable over the past week.

The National Tobacco Administration (NTA) has given a total of P5.4 million to the tobacco–growing farmers of Abra this cropping season. The loan package is part of the produc-tion assistance given to farmers under the Tobacco Contract Growing System of the NTA to sustain the tobacco industry. Furthermore, NTA signed an agreement on the use of tobacco dust as organic pesticide, �sh food, and soil conditioner (O�cial Gazette and Department of Agriculture, 18 January 2012).

10


SRI-LANKA, Colombo (02 January 2012)Retail nominal prices


- Rice prices have been edging upwards since mid-September 2011 and were 4 and 6 percent above the prices observed a month and three months ago, respectively.

Country Highlights

The Government allocated LKR 100 billion (USD 878,000) for health services in 2012 (Government of Sri Lanka, 12 January 2012).

Policy+

Data source: Department of Census and Statistics.


Food item Market

Price (LKR/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (white) Colombo 58.1 -0.2% 3.7% 6.4% 3%

Wheat flour Colombo 84.0 -0.2% -0.2% -0.4% 3%


0

30

60

90

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

Apr

11

May

11

Jun

11

Jul 1

1

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

7-N

ov

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

5-D

ec

12-D

ec

19-D

ec

26 D

ec

2 Ja

n 12

LKR

/ kg

Weekly data

Rice (white) Wheat (flour)

11


- White rice 100% and 5% prices were 4 and 5 percent below the levels observed a year ago, respectively.- Pork prices were 14 percent below the prices recorded a year ago. Pork prices had been gradually declining since August 2011.- Soybean oil prices were 21 percent above those registered a year ago.

Country Highlights

Early this week, the Thai Rice Exporters Association announced that the country’s rice exports were expected to fall by 2.5-4 MMT to 6.5-8 million tonnes from last year’s 10.5 million tonnes (MCOT, 17 January 2012).

Policy+

THAILAND, Bangkok (16 January 2012)Retail nominal prices


Data source: Ministry of Trade.


Food item Market

Price (THB/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

White rice 100% Bangkok 28.67 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.4%

White rice 5% Bangkok 24.67 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.9%

Chicken Bangkok 82.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1%

Pork tenderloin Bangkok 132.5 0.0% 0.5% 3.9% 13.5%

Soybean oil (Baht/lt) Bangkok 55.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.9%


0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

7-N

ov

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

5-D

ec

12-D

ec

19-D

ec

26 D

ec

2 Ja

n 12

9 Ja

n 12

16 Ja

n 12

THB

/ kg

Weekly data

White rice 100% White rice 5% Chicken meat Pork tenderloin Soybean oil


12


- Pork prices fell by 2 percent from the previous week but were 2 percent above the prices observed a month ago.

Country Highlights

NAPolicy+

VIET NAM, Hanoi (16 January 2012)Retail nominal prices

Data source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.


Food item Market

Price (VND/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice ordinary Hanoi 13,250 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% na

Maize Hanoi 9,000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% na

Pork Hanoi 60,500 -2.4% 2.1% -1.2% na


0

12,000

24,000

36,000

48,000

60,000

72,000

Mar

-11

Apr

-11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

7-N

ov

14-N

ov

21-N

ov

28-N

ov

5-D

ec

12-D

ec

19-D

ec

26 D

ec

2 Ja

n 12

9 Ja

n 12

16 Ja

n 12

VD

N/k

g

Weekly data

Rice (ordinary) Maize Pork

Disclaimer and Acknowledgements The Asia Paci�c Weekly Price Monitor is prepared by the FAO Regional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c with information from o�cial and uno�cial sources.Conditions can change rapidly and information may not always represent the current food price situation as of the present date . None of the country reports should be regarded in any way as statements of governmental views. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this newsbulletin do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerningthe legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This report has beenproduced with �nancial assistance from the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no waybe taken to re�ect the views of the European Union.

The support of FAO Country O�ces, FAO's Food and Agriculture Policy Decision Analysis (FAPDA) and the European Union through the EC-FAO FoodSecurity Programme “Linking information and decision-making to improve food security in selected countries of the Greater Mekong Subregion”are gratefully acknowledged for their contributions.

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regional o˜ce for asia and the paci˚c · issue 46, 18 january 2012 bhutan, trashigang (09 january...

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