regional trade opportunities for botswana’s livestock sector (the small stock and beef sectors
TRANSCRIPT
J. Tsoro MaiketsoMasedi Motswapong
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Conference on Policies for Competitive Smallholder Livestock ProductionGaborone, Botswana, 4-6 March 2015
Outline 1. Introduction
2. Trade trends
3. Objectives of the Paper
4. Methods
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Introduction Although agriculture’s contribution to GDP has declined,
it is still an important source of livelihood, especially for the rural households
Livestock is the main agriculture activity Beef industry is the backbone of the rural economy
(SACU Trade Policy Review, 2009) Beef is the largest agricultural commodity export
Are there opportunities to; Increase exports? Diversify exports? Diversify markets?
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Objectives Discuss the measures (policy and
legal provisions) affecting trade in livestock and livestock products
Analyse the determinants of Botswana’s exports of livestock and livestock products
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Exports of Fresh or chilled boneless bovine meat: main markets (BWP millions)
1.
5
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
United Kingdom South Africa Germany Reunion Greece
Exports of Fresh or chilled boneless bovine meat: emerging markets (BWP millions)
1.
6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Netherlands Angola Swaziland Namibia Zimbabwe
Exports of Frozen boneless bovine meat, main markets (BWP millions)
1.
7
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
South Africa Germany Greece United Kingdom Netherlands
Exports of Frozen boneless bovine meat, emerging markets (BWP millions)
1.
8
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Swaziland Mozambique Namibia Angola DRC Zimbabwe Antarctica
Methods Review of measures affecting trade
BMC Act [Chapter 74:04]; Export monopoly?
Control of Livestock Industry Act [Chapter 36:01]; Restrictions on exports; bans, levies, licensing etc
Diseases of Animals Act [Chapter 37:01]; Diseases of animals and the role of SPS measures
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Gravity model
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In its general formation, the gravity equation is specified as
follows;
𝑋𝑖𝑗 = 𝐺𝑆𝑖𝑀𝑗 ∅𝑖𝑗 ……………………………………………………………….…(1)
where 𝑋𝑖𝑗 = total exports from county i to country j
𝑀𝑗 = the importing county’s GDP or per capita GDP
𝑆𝑖 = exporter specific factors (i.e. exporter’s GDP)
∅𝑖𝑗 =distance between countries i and j
𝐺 = a constant
Model cont’d
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Taking natural logs of equation 1 yields the following estimation
ln𝑋𝑖𝑗 = ln𝐺 + ln 𝑆𝑖 +𝑙𝑛𝑀𝑗 + 𝑙𝑛∅𝑖𝑗 ……………………………………. (2)
More specifically equation 2 can be expressed as
ln𝑋𝑖𝑗 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑖 + 𝛽2𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑗 + 𝛽3 𝑙𝑛𝐷𝑖𝑗 + 𝜖𝑖𝑗……………………. (3)
where 𝑌 denotes GDP and 𝐷 denotes distance, however other
variables can be included such as exchange rates and any other
variable that captures trade costs
Data Sources The study will use data from Statistics Botswana and
where possible other data sourced from, Euro stat, World Bank
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