regression 2

Airline + CrudeSUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R0.6999403369R Square0.4899164752Adjusted R Square0.4859000695Standard Error18.0091177552Observations129ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression139561.189800137839561.1898001378121.9788315650Residual12741189.6969347459324.3283223208Total12880750.8867348837

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept19.697684665.85950284843.36166483230.00102395798.1027859631.29258336018.1027859631.292583360134.310.79452628130.071939271111.044402725600.65217144650.93688111620.65217144650.9368811162RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted 46.05Residuals147.2598013595-0.7498013595248.8885802363-2.6285802363348.8965254991-2.3565254991451.7012032722-4.1812032722549.91351913921.6664808608652.0984664129-1.9784664129755.371914692-5.321914692856.1982220246-3.8682220246962.0300449296-5.62004492961058.20837351630.91162648371153.98149369967.39850630041256.91329567781.09670432221357.95412510631.99587489371462.7530638456-3.03306384561561.7916870452-6.45168704521659.2889292589-1.01892925891764.4692406132-8.14924061321866.5747352588-5.27473525881971.333947684-11.8939476842071.8106634528-11.55066345282169.1648909359-7.49489093592266.03445738750.66554261252366.90049103411.15950896592471.7312108247-1.23121082472568.66433937873.09566062132669.50653723694.73346276312774.86958963590.66041036412875.9819264298-0.17192642982976.06932432073.98067567933078.8183852542-7.77838525423177.7298842487-8.07988424873270.38846140922.15153859083366.487337367810.25266263223466.638297361310.17170263873568.92653305155.24346694853663.007312255616.91268774443766.797202617612.45279738243867.718853103910.53114689613970.531476139811.60852386024070.118322473516.18167752654173.32026338739.83973661274278.58797263263.48202736744377.18960637742.60039362264483.1962250643-4.00622506434587.8680395986-7.64803959864694.9949403421-18.56494034214792.5477993956-18.08779939564893.5647930357-15.79479303574995.4875466366-20.827546636650103.4804810268-24.990481026851109.1454534127-24.325453412752119.3312803394-30.011280339453126.0688632051-44.738863205154125.6636548017-41.893654801755112.3950659034-27.905065903456102.4158158098-26.11581580985780.5663430731-16.19634307315865.2319858433-6.96198584335952.36860534856.28139465156052.8373758545-4.03737585456150.7557169974-9.24571699746257.7872745872-13.12727458726359.1459145283-6.59591452836466.5985710472-12.79857104726575.0284948922-20.29849489226670.6665456077-10.20654560776776.1487769489-14.10877694896874.8457538475-10.13575384756979.8592146827-18.83921468277081.6627893413-14.93278934137178.866056831-9.0960568317281.932928277-15.7029282777380.3915472912-9.50154729127484.2132187044-9.20321870447586.6683049137-6.66830491377678.2860526457-3.61605264577779.5572946958-10.65729469587880.3359304515-4.39593045157980.5583978103-9.48839781038079.4778420677-1.48784206778184.7614418385-2.83144183858286.6365238625-2.70652386258390.529702641-2.1097026418490.5455931667-3.65559316678590.0768226607-1.756822660786101.4226579581-9.342657958187106.7221482546-10.87214825468899.8653864467-4.61538644678996.1787845013-1.76878450139097.0050918339-7.08509183399188.2891385277-7.22913852779287.6455722398-14.67557223989388.2811932649-3.39119326499496.8938581545-11.22385815459598.0061949484-10.95619494849699.3648348895-7.084834889597100.8982706125-11.448270612598104.0445946865-12.714594686599101.7881400476-10.938140047610094.9075424512-5.967542451210185.08719761396.222802386110289.5365447894-0.636544789410394.4864435221-7.096443522110494.788363509-9.33836350910590.7998415767-2.489841576710688.44804378390.841956216110789.50476373813.345236261910894.98699507936.423004920710995.42398453419.556015465911093.540957247316.249042752711192.809993068515.730006931511294.78836350916.08163649111395.789466623512.9005333765114102.860750527411.3292494726115104.37035046196.0696495381116104.147883103112.492116896911799.579356985424.020643014611894.271921426134.238078573911997.267285506833.812714493212094.875761399934.724238600112199.801824344231.118175655812299.785933818635.1740661814123100.794982195935.8950178041124100.882380086843.9076199132125103.750619962442.9893800376126102.002662143543.567337856512796.401251860154.128748139912893.755479343357.144520656712986.755702804769.9442971953

Airline + CPISUMMARY OUTPUT


CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept-214.616303220719.5381456564-10.98447657190-253.2787675174-175.953838924-253.2787675174-175.953838924186.21.37753122890.090531018215.216124340701.19838668171.55667577611.19838668171.5566757761RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted 46.05Residuals143.53304907892.9769509211244.35956781631.9004321837345.87485216810.6651478319446.70137090540.8186290946546.28811153685.2918884632646.42586465973.6941353403746.97687715123.0731228488848.35440838013.9755916199948.4921615037.9178384971047.527889642811.59211035721148.078902134413.30109786561249.59418648628.41581351381351.66048332968.28951667041453.45127392726.26872607281553.17576768142.16423231861653.31352080434.95647919571754.55329891031.76670108971855.93083013925.36916986081959.23690508860.20309491142059.78791758020.47208241982157.58386761394.08613238612256.481842630810.21815736922358.54813947429.51186052582459.099151965711.40084803432560.614436317511.14556368252662.956239406711.28376059332764.333770635611.19622936442864.884783127210.92521687282965.711301864514.33869813553066.26231435614.77768564393164.88478312724.76521687283263.36949877549.17050122463362.956239406713.78376059333463.369498775413.44050122463564.21805801249.95194198763665.709924333314.21007566673768.262489700510.98751029953870.10011635998.14988364013971.83993830210.3000616984072.395083387313.90491661274172.322074232110.83792576794271.795857302710.27414269734372.58518269697.20481730314473.19956162495.99043837514574.909077885.310922124674.71484597681.71515402324776.1529885798-1.69298857984876.99741522310.77258477694979.5251850281-4.86518502815081.3090879696-2.81908796965183.80104196271.01895803735286.80819263542.51180736465388.3909760175-7.06097601755487.1815035985-3.41150359855586.7641116361-2.27411163615683.7197676202-7.41976762025778.0057680827-13.63576808275874.9793319727-16.70933197275976.2397730472-17.58977304726077.6861808375-28.88618083756178.3969869517-36.88698695176279.1284560342-34.46845603426379.9770152712-27.42701527126482.5075401388-28.70754013886582.0364244585-27.30642445856682.701772042-22.2417720426782.8877387579-20.84773875796883.1742652536-18.46426525366983.3850275316-22.36502753167082.8601881334-16.13018813347183.8768061803-14.10680618037283.9511928667-17.72119286677385.1771956604-14.28719566047485.6979024649-10.68790246497585.9307052426-5.93070524267685.6372910909-10.96729109097785.7006575274-16.80065752747886.1152944273-10.17529442737986.2902408934-15.22024089348086.6649293876-8.67492938768186.7916622607-4.86166226078287.3096140028-3.37961400288388.7477566058-0.32775660588490.2437555204-3.35375552048593.2164679124-4.89646791248695.1987353508-3.11873535088796.656163391-0.8061633918896.3228008336-1.07280083368996.5983070794-2.18830707949097.456509035-7.5365090359197.9303797777-16.87037977779297.2856951626-24.31569516269397.0225866979-12.13258669799496.2539242722-10.58392427229597.6218127825-10.57181278259698.9965889489-6.716588948997101.3783404437-11.928340443798102.3329695854-11.002969585499101.9610361536-11.1110361536100101.4968081294-12.5568081294101100.9816114498-9.6716114498102102.7379637667-13.8379637667103104.15406587-16.76406587104104.0300880594-18.5800880594105102.5203138325-14.2103138325106101.6662444706-12.3762444706107102.601588175-9.751588175108105.1996120728-3.7896120728109106.0357735287-1.0557735287110105.70241097134.0875890287111106.27270890012.2672910999112107.04274885713.8272511429113107.16948173011.5205182699114107.55656800546.6334319946115107.93125649972.5087435003116107.10060516879.5393948313117106.443522772517.1564772275118106.415972147922.0940278521119107.610291723423.4697082766120108.801856236420.7981437636121110.884683454520.0353165455122111.957780281823.0022197182123113.098376139423.5916238606124113.708622473831.0813775262125113.580512069533.1594879305126113.032254640432.5377453596127113.278832730437.2511672696128112.455069055538.4449309445129110.853000236245.8469997638

Airline + UnemploymentSUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R0.0564429416R Square0.0031858057Adjusted R Square-0.004663125Standard Error25.1755458937Observations129ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1257.2566318956257.25663189560.40589040660.5252095693Residual12780493.6301029881633.8081110472Total12880750.8867348837

CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept76.79458971518.46269657949.0744822285060.048440407493.540739022760.048440407493.54073902275.70.75930760951.19182738150.63709528850.5252095693-1.59910369513.117718914-1.59910369513.117718914RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted 46.05Residuals181.046712328-34.536712328281.1985738499-34.9385738499381.046712328-34.506712328481.046712328-33.526712328581.046712328-29.466712328680.9707815671-30.8507815671780.8948508061-30.8448508061880.8948508061-28.5648508061980.9707815671-24.56078156711080.8948508061-21.77485080611180.8948508061-19.51485080611280.8189200452-22.80892004521380.8948508061-20.94485080611480.7429892842-21.02298928421580.7429892842-25.40298928421680.6670585233-22.39705852331780.5911277623-24.27112776231880.5911277623-19.29112776231980.5151970014-21.07519700142080.5911277623-20.33112776232180.5911277623-18.92112776232280.5911277623-13.89112776232380.5151970014-12.45519700142480.3633354795-9.86333547952580.4392662404-8.67926624042680.3633354795-6.12333547952780.3633354795-4.83333547952880.2874047186-4.47740471862980.2874047186-0.23740471863080.3633354795-9.32333547953180.3633354795-10.71333547953280.2114739576-7.67147395763380.1355431967-3.39554319673480.2114739576-3.40147395763580.1355431967-5.96554319673680.2874047186-0.36740471863780.2114739576-0.96147395763880.1355431967-1.88554319673980.21147395761.92852604244080.13554319676.16445680334180.28740471862.87259528144280.36333547951.70666452054380.2874047186-0.49740471864480.3633354795-1.17333547954580.3633354795-0.14333547954680.3633354795-3.93333547954780.5911277623-6.13112776234880.5911277623-2.82112776234980.5151970014-5.85519700145080.6670585233-2.17705852335180.59112776234.22887223775280.89485080618.42514919395381.0467123280.2832876725481.19857384992.57142615015581.42636613273.06363386735681.4263661327-5.12636613275781.7300891765-17.36008917655881.9578814593-23.68788145935982.3375352641-23.68753526416082.7171890688-33.91718906886183.0968428735-41.58684287356283.4005659173-38.74056591736383.6283582001-31.07835820016483.9320812439-30.13208124396584.0080120049-29.27801200496684.0080120049-23.54801200496784.0839427658-22.04394276586884.2358042877-19.52580428776984.3876658096-23.36766580967084.3117350486-17.58173504867184.3117350486-14.54173504867284.1598735268-17.92987352687384.2358042877-13.34580428777484.3117350486-9.30173504867584.3117350486-4.31173504867684.0839427658-9.41394276587783.9320812439-15.03208124397884.0080120049-8.06801200497984.0080120049-12.93801200498084.0080120049-6.01801200498184.0080120049-2.07801200498284.2358042877-0.30580428778383.93208124394.48791875618483.70428896113.18571103898583.62835820014.69164179998683.62835820018.45164179998783.704288961112.14571103898883.628358200111.62164179998983.704288961110.70571103899083.62835820016.29164179999183.6283582001-2.56835820019283.6283582001-10.65835820019383.47649667821.41350332189483.32463515642.34536484369583.24870439543.80129560469683.02091211269.25908788749783.09684287356.35315712659883.02091211268.30908788749983.02091211267.829087887410083.02091211265.919087887410183.02091211268.289087887410283.02091211265.879087887410382.94498135164.445018648410482.71718906882.732810931210582.71718906885.592810931210682.71718906886.572810931210782.793119829710.056880170310882.793119829718.616880170310982.641258307922.338741692111082.48939678627.30060321411182.48939678626.05060321411282.48939678628.38060321411382.48939678626.20060321411482.337535264131.852464735911582.261604503128.178395496911682.261604503134.378395496911782.261604503141.338395496911882.109742981246.400257018811981.881950698449.198049301612081.806019937547.793980062512181.881950698449.038049301612281.881950698453.078049301612381.578227654655.111772345412481.578227654663.211772345412581.426366132765.313633867312681.502296893764.067703106312781.426366132769.103633867312881.274504610869.625495389212981.198573849975.5014261501

Multiple RegressionsSUMMARY OUTPUT


CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept-113.69409649239.8255743746-11.57124175730-133.1386193273-94.2495736573-133.1386193273-94.2495736573Crude Oil X10.03167006710.06519622460.48576535330.627977213-0.09735134480.160691479-0.09735134480.160691479PDI X20.02137421910.00133539716.005890668900.01873150760.02401693060.01873150760.0240169306Unemployement X3-6.28707920880.5737477239-10.95791572950-7.4225090874-5.1516493302-7.4225090874-5.1516493302RESIDUAL OUTPUT

ObservationPredicted Airline Index Residuals138.63827972887.4117202712240.11475424296.3952457571339.92898775936.3310122407442.13359820884.4064017912543.8676967773.652303223644.41842890257.1615710975745.69637147084.4236285292847.17800867442.8719913256947.58713180074.74286819931048.11424843838.29575156171148.782991308610.33700869141255.86891652175.51108347831349.98847906238.02152093771450.05531003449.89468996561552.70096935227.01903064781653.61593874391.72406125611755.14947425223.12052574781856.67719571-0.357195711958.1183843023.1816156982060.0781792258-0.63817922582160.3811525017-0.12115250172261.55386948180.11613051822362.36528021514.33471978492464.16347954443.89652045562569.31118930221.18881069782669.55199868962.20800131042770.95168744133.28831255872871.77462563913.75537436092972.7362236123.0737763883073.71864655526.33135344483173.9005914537-2.86059145373274.4962926135-4.84629261353376.2519231429-3.71192314293477.392006671-0.6520066713577.594360921-0.7843609213679.776275223-5.6062752233779.15712294360.76287705643881.238587029-1.9885870293983.3467920184-5.09679201844083.2127946573-1.07279465734184.3422902461.9577097544283.4155598563-0.25555985634383.8432435574-1.77324355744484.7453751347-4.95537513474585.8031275555-6.61312755554686.2308762261-6.01087622614787.4297733063-10.99977330634887.029935374-12.5699353744988.3165900346-10.54659003465089.9303438305-15.27034383055190.1970348221-11.70703482215290.7394867221-5.919486722153100.8759554337-11.55595543375495.0843147241-13.75431472415591.0427857718-7.27278577185686.5395106807-2.04951068075786.6397539436-10.33975394365883.1300249444-18.76002494445979.5831947281-21.31319472816073.8215561541-15.17155615416171.8167109713-23.01671097136266.9999538885-25.48995388856364.564484639-19.9044846396464.341995391-11.7919953916566.0699097866-12.26990978666663.1439174817-8.41391748176762.0317205939-1.57172059396861.66642199610.37357800396961.05814163153.65185836857059.7590352371.2609647637161.54758196355.18241803657262.37870639067.39129360947363.79684228572.43315771437462.71982106868.17017893147563.040704543711.96929545637664.86560195615.1343980447768.11685693116.55314306897869.6515116029-0.75151160297969.53903512186.40096487828070.6337130720.4362869288170.51796943587.47203056428271.887058058310.04294194178371.180722782612.74927721748476.144191506612.27580849348579.86699409317.02300590698681.84924154216.47075845798782.88073143829.19926856188882.899296934912.95070306518983.936529766811.31347023329084.332179942610.07782005749186.49429491563.42570508449286.5508470211-5.49084702119386.2067184018-13.23671840189487.8677939757-2.97779397579589.5711095964-3.90110959649692.2340954115-5.18409541159796.7456935492-4.46569354929898.0740020939-8.62400209399999.982331313-8.652331313100100.758044197-9.908044197101100.4068342272-11.4668342272102100.4621133777-9.1521133777103100.0217508207-11.1217508207104101.1641017025-13.7741017025105105.2039568467-19.7539568467106107.282853852-18.972853852107110.7393682496-21.4493682496108117.7662783692-24.9162783692109101.7168836583-0.3068836583110105.1633386998-0.1833386998111107.06600766692.7239923331112107.37458386731.1654161327113108.70810899682.1618910032114109.9706186151-1.2806186151115111.59966977432.5903302257116113.4876445153-3.0476445153117114.49405230492.1459476951118113.77759394119.8224060589119115.334297571713.1757024283120117.119663030313.9603369697121119.228323998510.3716760015122120.352013645710.5679863543123122.012157070112.9478429299124125.479888895311.2101111047125126.584144887518.2058551125126129.184907270917.5550927291127129.102102713216.4678972868128130.345406050720.1845939493129131.864997137919.0350028621130132.714848495323.9851515047

DATADateAirline Index Crude Oil X1PDI X2Unemployement X31/5/0446.0534.318752.75.7CorrelationAirline + CrudeAirline + PDIAirline + Unemployment2/2/0446.5134.698791.85.60.70560628780.82167097220.06270391033/1/0446.2636.748838.95.84/1/0446.5436.758883.25.6CorrelationCrude + PDICrude +Unemployment PDI+ Unemployment5/3/0447.5240.288959.15.60.77404598990.26362014740.50285317046/1/0451.5838.038988.25.67/1/0450.1240.789014.55.58/2/0450.0544.99048.35.49/1/0452.3345.949065.95.4Figure 1 10/1/0456.4153.289109.15.511/1/0459.1248.479118.15.412/1/0461.3843.159457.55.41/3/0558.0146.849147.55.32/1/0559.9548.159178.15.43/1/0559.7254.199234.15.24/1/0555.3452.989278.75.25/2/0558.2749.839325.75.16/1/0556.3256.359358.15.07/1/0561.3599421.65.08/1/0559.4464.999475.04.99/1/0560.2665.599517.75.010/3/0561.6762.269577.55.011/1/0566.758.329621.35.012/1/0568.0659.419674.44.91/3/0670.565.499847.44.7Figure 22/1/0671.7661.639893.84.83/1/0674.2462.699928.34.74/3/0675.5369.449956.84.75/1/0675.8170.849970.34.66/1/0680.0570.9510016.14.67/3/0671.0474.4110048.94.78/1/0669.6573.0410078.84.79/1/0672.5463.810115.84.510/2/0676.7458.8910147.04.411/1/0676.8159.0810185.64.512/1/0674.1761.9610254.04.41/3/0779.9254.5110294.94.62/1/0779.2559.2810355.84.53/1/0778.2560.4410423.34.44/2/0782.1463.9810441.24.55/1/0786.363.4610465.44.46/1/0783.1667.4910474.94.67/2/0782.0774.1210514.54.78/1/0779.7972.3610529.94.69/4/0779.1979.9210597.64.710/1/0780.2285.810608.94.711/1/0776.4394.7710651.74.712/3/0774.4691.6910725.85.01/2/0877.7792.9710784.15.02/1/0874.6695.3910826.64.93/3/0878.49105.4510883.05.14/1/0884.82112.5810868.45.05/1/0889.32125.411441.35.46/2/0881.33133.8811216.65.67/1/0883.77133.3711087.15.88/1/0884.49116.6710989.46.19/2/0876.3104.1111012.76.110/1/0864.3776.6111006.96.511/3/0858.2757.3110957.86.812/1/0858.6541.1210859.37.31/2/0948.841.7110911.77.82/2/0941.5139.0910837.38.33/2/0944.6647.9410827.98.74/1/0952.5549.6510903.29.05/1/0953.859.0311087.89.46/1/0954.7369.6410964.69.57/1/0960.4664.1510920.79.58/3/0962.0471.0510922.89.69/1/0964.7169.4110955.69.810/1/0961.0275.7210944.310.011/2/0966.7377.9910995.29.912/1/0969.7774.4711039.39.91/4/1066.2378.3311041.19.72/1/1070.8976.3911023.09.83/1/1075.0181.211060.39.94/1/108084.2911141.19.95/3/1074.6773.7411220.69.66/1/1068.975.3411231.29.47/1/1075.9476.3211253.99.58/2/1071.0776.611304.79.59/1/1077.9975.2411301.39.510/1/1081.9381.8911355.59.511/1/1083.9384.2511407.29.812/1/1088.4289.1511514.59.41/3/1186.8989.1711600.49.12/1/1188.3288.5811664.69.03/1/1192.08102.8611691.79.04/1/1195.85109.5311712.19.15/2/1195.25100.911744.09.06/1/1194.4196.2611798.89.17/1/1189.9297.311869.09.08/1/1181.0686.3311887.99.09/1/1172.9785.5211873.09.010/3/1184.8986.3211890.78.811/1/1185.6797.1611895.58.612/1/1187.0598.5611988.68.51/3/1292.28100.2712108.98.22/1/1289.45102.212197.68.33/1/1291.33106.1612251.68.24/2/1290.85103.3212292.18.25/1/1288.9494.6612288.58.26/1/1291.3182.312309.48.27/2/1288.987.912280.58.28/1/1287.3994.1312295.38.19/4/1285.4594.5112395.57.810/1/1288.3189.4912500.27.811/1/1289.2986.5312666.37.812/3/1292.8587.8613022.57.91/2/13101.4194.7612261.47.92/1/13104.9895.3112363.07.73/1/13109.7992.9412396.77.54/1/13108.5492.0212412.57.55/1/13110.8794.5112471.27.56/3/13108.6995.7712528.47.57/1/13114.19104.6712532.67.38/1/13110.44106.5712588.77.29/3/13116.64106.2912636.27.210/1/13123.6100.5412611.27.211/1/13128.5193.8612635.17.012/2/13131.0897.6312624.86.71/2/14129.694.6212698.56.62/3/14130.92100.8212771.36.73/3/14134.96100.812849.06.74/1/14136.69102.0712891.76.35/1/14144.79102.1812943.26.36/2/14146.74105.7913000.76.17/1/14145.57103.5913029.56.28/1/14150.5396.5413068.76.19/2/14150.993.2113085.95.910/1/14156.784.413109.35.8

regression 2

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