regulatory outlook for real-world emissions - icct
TRANSCRIPT
Regulatory outlook for real-
world emissions
Vicente Franco, Peter Mock [email protected]
International Conference: Engine Optimisation for RDE
20-21 January 2015. NH Hotel Frankfurt-Mörfelden, Germany
Regulatory outlook for real-world emissions
Current challenges: results from Diesel
PC meta-study
Advanced systems and trends for
emission measurement
Technologies to meet 2020 targets
3
Real Driving
Emissions
Current challenges:
results from Diesel PC
meta-study
‘Translator’
script
Source
A
Source
B
Source
C
ICCT ICCT
ICCT ‘Calculator’
functions
MATLAB environment
DB
results
‘Renderer’
functions
IN: PEMS
datasheets
(Excel)
OUT: standard
PEMS charts/tables
Automatic
operation
Manual
operation
PEMS data analysis
Windowed emissions
• by CO2 window (assessment of
‘on-road compliance’)
Other
• Time and distance shares
• Transience metrics
Average distance-specific emissions (CO2,
CO, NOX and THC)
• by trip
• by vehicle (collection of trips)
• by operating conditions
• velocity
• acceleration*velocity
• gradient
• exhaust temperature
ICCT ICCT ICCT
‘Calculator’
functions DB
results
PEMS data analysis
Diesel PC meta-study
Real-world Emissions Report 2014: Modern Diesel Cars
• Multiple data sources
• 15 vehicles (3 Tier 2 Bin 5 + 12 Euro 6)
• 5 different sources
• 96 trips/ 140 hrs / 6,400 km of recorded data
• One multi-level analysis and reporting framework
• Raw emission factors (trip averages)
• Windowed emissions (‘on-road compliance’)
• Situation-specific emissions
• Instantaneous emissions
http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars
‘Raw’ average distance-specific emissions, by vehicle
Diesel PC meta-study: Overall results
http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars
Euro 6 conformity factor for NOX, all vehicles
Meta-study: Results for NOx
Mean CF = 7.1
Best vehicle: 1.0
Worst vehicle: 25
Euro 6 conformity factor for CO, all vehicles
Meta-study: Results for CO
Mean CF = 0.40
Real-world CO2 ratios, all vehicles
Meta-study: Results for CO2
Mean on-road/type-approval ratio = 1.43
Meta-study: Results in more detail
Situation-specific analysis: undemanding driving conditions
Meta-study: Results by driving condition
NOX emission factors [mg/km]
Meta-study: Results by driving condition
Diesel PC meta-study: Results
15
Real-world NOX:Euro 6 Diesel PCs are (on average)
worse than they should have been 15 years ago
16
Real Driving
Emissions
Advanced systems and
tends for emission
measurement
17
From laboratory to road: PEMS makes it possible to
accurately measure real-world emissions
Road tests with PEMS
Chassis dyno measurements
Photo credit: AVL / ERMES Group
Vehicle photos unrelated to the results shown
http://www.theicct.org/use-emissions-testing-light-duty-diesel-vehicles-us
18
Trust is good – control is better!
Vehicle emissions certification/testing in the EU and US
Pre-production testing Certificate of Conformity
Manufacturer
Conformity tests about 10% of vehicles
EPA
vehicle design and build 0 km 100,000 km 50,000 km
Selective Enforcement Audit +
Confirmatory Road Load Testing
EPA
In-use verification tests on random sample
Manufacturer
In-use surveillance random / selected sample
EPA
1
2
3
4
5
Pre-production testing Certificate of Conformity
Manufacturer 1
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/bought-tiger-got-hello-kitty-how-fix-vehicle-fuel-economy-fraud-china
19
Upon the introduction of CO2 standards for passenger
cars in Europe, emission reduction rates increased
sharply
http://www.theicct.org/co2-emissions-new-passenger-cars-eu-car-manufacturers%E2%80%99-performance-2013
20
The actual CO2 emissions from new cars
are about 30% higher than type-approval values
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/trend-that-cant-continue-europes-car-co2-emissions-gap
21
This means that more than half of CO2 reductions
only happened on paper
http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update
22
A chain is only
as strong...
...as its weakest
link
A solid CO2 regulation requires:
• A modern test procedure
• Independent retests
• On-road testing
• Transparency of test results
Fazit und These zur Diskussion
Photo credit: http://photoopia.com/view/6856-Schwaches+Glied+in+der+Kette.html
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/trend-that-cant-continue-europes-car-co2-emissions-gap
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/will-new-test-procedure-solve-problem-latest-developments-eu-vehicle-testing
http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/art-cooking-popcorn-and-2013-eu-statistical-pocketbook
http://www.theicct.org/wltp-how-new-test-procedure-cars-will-affect-fuel-consumption-values-eu
http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update
http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars
http://www.theicct.org/wltp-november2013-update
More info:
23
Real Driving
Emissions Technologies to meet
2020 targets
There are many different technologies available to reduce vehicles’ CO2 emissions
Technical efficiency, low-CO2 options
Petroleum efficiency
Gasoline
Diesel
Hybrid
Alternative fuels
Compressed natural gas
Biofuels
Electric-drive
Plug-in hybrid electric
Electric
Fuel cell electric
24 Electric
Turbo
Hybrid
Plug-in hybrid
Fuel cell
Stop-start
Advanced
materials and
design Low rolling
resistance tires
Aerodynamics
Efficient
accessories
Direct injection
Diesel
6+ Speed
Variable valve
controls
Low-friction
lubricants
HFO
1234yf
Ricardo vehicle simulations Efficiency, low CO2 technologies
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%
Ad
dit
ion
al
dir
ec
t m
an
ufa
ctu
rin
g c
osts
[E
UR
] re
lati
ve
to
20
10
ba
se
lin
e
95 g
/km
corresponding
fleet targets
90 g
/km
80 g
/km
70 g
/km
60 g
/km
Ford Focus 2010
159 g/km
2012
109 g/km -31%
2010
164 g/km
2012
79 g/km
(hybrid) -52%
Toyota Yaris
2020
CO2 / fuel consumption
relative to 2010 baseline
95 g/km in 2020:
Fuel cost savings: ≈350-450 € / year [BEUC, 2012]
Avoided oil imports: ≈160 million tons 2020-2030 [EC, 2012]
Reduction in CO2: ≈420 million tons 2020-2030 [EC, 2012]
Investment in technology: <1000 € / vehicle [ICCT, 2013]
26
US EPA / CARB / ICCT
Vehicle computer simulation
RICARDO (Detroit)
Tear-down cost assessment
FEV (Detroit)
ICCT
Vehicle computer simulation
RICARDO (Shoreham + Detroit)
Tear-down cost assessment
FEV (Aachen + Detroit)
Significantly improved method to assess technology potential and costs
Accelerating Technology Introduction
Source: 2013 EPA Fuel Economy Trends Report – Cars only
GDI Turbo 6 speed 7+ speed CVT Hybrid
2004 - 4% 5% 0.4% 2% 1%
2005 - 2% 6% 0.4% 3% 2%
2006 - 3% 12% 2% 3% 2%
2007 - 4% 16% 2% 10% 3%
2008 3% 4% 19% 3% 11% 3%
2009 4% 4% 19% 3% 11% 3%
2010 9% 4% 33% 3% 14% 5%
2011 18% 8% 54% 5% 12% 3%
2012 28% 10% 58% 6% 15% 5%
2013 38% 16% 61% 8% 17% 6%
28
Standards drive technology upgrades… (example: high-selling passenger cars in the US, 2010 to 2014)
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14
15
16
17
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19
20
3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6
Fu
el e
co
no
my
(k
m/l)
Vehicle footprint (m2)
2014 4-cylinder sedans
2010 4-cylinder sedans
Fusion
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Accord
Camry
Mazda 6
Mazda 6
i-eLOOP
Altima
Thank you for your attention!
Vicente Franco, Peter Mock [email protected]
International Conference: Engine Optimisation for RDE
20-21 January 2015. NH Hotel Frankfurt-Mörfelden, Germany