1Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited

Reimagining the Future:A Journey Through the Looking Glass

Copyright © 2016 Tata Consultancy Services Limited

2

What was the most significant

development in human history?

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“It made mockery of all

that had gone before it”Ian Morris - Historian

The Steam Engine

Source: MIT Initiative on the Digital economy

First Industrial RevolutionSecond Industrial Revolution

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Mindset Shift

Are we on the verge of the next revolution?

Transition2016

Transition

Second Industrial Revolution Platform

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“The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous

industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace”

Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum

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The Next Revolution

General Purpose Technology Platform

Convergence of Paradigm Shifts

Linear to Exponential Shift

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General Purpose Technology Platform

Communications Energy Transport

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A Convergence of Paradigm shifts

Ownership to access

Five generations of workers

Rise of the Crowd

Resource Scarcity

Technological Unemployment

Climate Change

Increased Lifespans

Fall in Working Age Population

Power to the Individual

The Rise of Independent Workers

Rising Energy Demand

Generation Z

Population Growth

Global Inequality

Reverse Brain Drain

Abundance

Millennial Focus on Purpose

Aging Population

Growing Need for Elder Care

Shifting Views of Retirement

Urbanization

The Changing Notion of Work

Generational Differences

Emerging Middle Class

Decline in Fertility Rates

Autonomous Vehicles

Smart HomesArtificial Narrow Intelligence

Connected Healthcare

Automation of Everything

Maker Economy

Smart Grid

Energy Internet

Healthy Life Extension

Next Generation Education

Smart Cities

Connected Car

Circular Economy

Logistics Internet

Radical Life Extension

Artificial Super Intelligence

Sharing Economy

Decentralization of Everything

Human-Machine Convergence

Artificial General Intelligence

Human 2.0

Democracy 2.0

Money 2.0

Empowerment Economy

Transport 2.0

De-Extinction

Cyberwar

Institution 2.0

Food 2.0

Science and Technology Foundation

Innovation Accelerators

Emerging and Future Accelerators

Future Scenarios

Social

Mobile

Cloud

Big Data - Analytics

Internet

3D Printing

Renewable Energy

Internet of Things

Robotics

Blockchain

Cognitive Systems

Nanotechnology

Drones

Genomics

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Linear to Exponential Shift

Time

Scie

nce

an

d T

ech

no

logy

Cap

abili

ty

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The Challenge of PaceDisruptive Stress or Opportunity

Right BrainTime to Scale

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Critical Facets of the Next Revolution

Future Thinking

Structure

Value

Scenarios

Ethics

Viability

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The Future is approaching faster than people think

Changing our belief system

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Future Thinking Grows in Importance

Information-enabled

Science & Technology

Combinatorial

Speed

ScaleDigital

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13

Autonomous Vehicles

Smart HomesArtificial Narrow Intelligence

Automation of Everything

Maker Economy

Smart Grid

Energy Internet

Healthy Life Extension

Next Generation Education

Smart Cities

Connected Car

Circular Economy

Logistics Internet

Radical Life Extension

Artificial Super Intelligence

Sharing Economy

Decentralization of Everything

Human-Machine Convergence

Artificial General Intelligence

Human 2.0

Democracy 2.0

Money 2.0

Empowerment Economy

Transport 2.0

De-Extinction

Cyberwar

Institution 2.0

Food 2.0

Connected Healthcare

Social

Mobile

Cloud

Big Data - Analytics

Internet

3D Printing

Renewable Energy

Internet of Things

Robotics

Blockchain

Cognitive Systems

Nanotechnology

Drones

Genomics

Augmented Reality

Virtual Reality

Quantum Computing

Energy Storage

Precision Agriculture

Vertical Farming

Materials Science

Synthetic Biology

Bioelectronics

Photonics

Biophotonics

Genetic Engineering

Reusable Rockets

Visible Light Communications

Aquaponics

Artificial photosynthesis

Hyperloop

Flying Cars

Lab grown meat

Brain-Computer Interface

Solar Power Satellites

Wireless Power Transmission

Exoskeletons

Regenerative Medicine

Brain Scanning

4D Printing

Cryonics

Full Brain Simulation

Emerging and Future Accelerators

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Intersections Amplify both Power and Impact

Renewable Energy

Internet of Things

Cloud

Big Data - Analytics

Sharing Economy

Mobile

Cognitive Systems

Transport 2.0Logistics Internet

Nanotechnology

Robotics

Genomics

Circular Economy

Connected HealthcareSmart Cities

Connected Car Smart Homes

Maker EconomyEnergy Internet

Healthy Life ExtensionAutonomous Vehicles

3D Printing

1

4

5

3

6

7

8

2

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The Reciprocal Nature of Societal Factors

Fall in Working Age Population

Decline in Fertility Rates

Technological Unemployment

Aging Population

Automation of Everything

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Autonomous Vehicles

Smart HomesArtificial Narrow Intelligence

Connected Healthcare

Automation of Everything

Maker Economy

Smart Grid

Energy Internet

Healthy Life Extension

Next Generation Education

Smart Cities

Connected Car

Circular Economy

Logistics Internet

Radical Life Extension

Artificial Super Intelligence

Sharing Economy

Decentralization of Everything

Human-Machine Convergence

Artificial General Intelligence

Human 2.0

Democracy 2.0

Money 2.0

Empowerment Economy

Transport 2.0

De-Extinction

Cyberwar

Institution 2.0

Food 2.0

Artificial Narrow Intelligence

Artificial Super Intelligence

Artificial General Intelligence

Source: Ray Kurzweil

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Structural change is inevitable

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Vertical to Horizontal

Centralized to Decentralized

Hierarchy to Enabled-Edge

Unbundling - Fragmentation

Asset-Heavy to Asset-Light

Consumer to Producer

Scarcity to Abundance

Management Paradigms

Organizing Principles

SocietalShifts

Operating Principles

EconomyOperating

Environment

Cultural conflict

Pressure on Structure

Transforming the Professions

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Vertical to Horizontal Shift

EcosystemPurpose

IndustryHyper-productivity

AgricultureAccountingAdvertisingAerospaceAircraftAirlineApparelAutomotiveBankingBroadcastingBrokerageBiotechnologyCargoChemicalComputerConsultingConsumer Products

CosmeticsDatingDefenseDepartment StoresEducationElectronicsEnergyEntertainmentFin ServicesFitnessFood & BeverageGroceryHealthcareInsuranceInternetInvestmentLegal

ManufacturingMotion PictureMusicNewspapersPharmaceuticalPrivate EquityReal EstateRetailSECServiceSoftwareSportsTechnologyTelecomTransportationVenture Capital

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Wellness

Maker

Resources

Value

Mobility

Growth

Spaces

Leisure

Community

The Human Cloud

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AI - Analytics

Automated production

Robotics

Communities of Practice

Crowdsourcing

Online Services

App-based Support

Do it Yourself Research

Personalization

Mass customization

Virtual environments

Transforming the Professions

Education Healthcare Law Tax & Audit Architecture DivinityManagement

Consulting Journalism

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More change to institutions and professions in the next 20 years, than in the previous 300

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The Value Shift

Value

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Value is increasingly generated by

new types of assets: algorithms,

data, networks, and softwareSource: McKinsey Global Institute

Value Design

Future Value

increasingly

accrues to

consumers

1Source: Mckinsey Global Institute - playing to win: the new global competition for corporate profits

Telecom Firms

Consumers

Skype

$37 Billion1

Loss

$2 Billion

$37 Billion1

Gain

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The challenge is to rehearse the future and prepare for a range of possibilities

Source: Fast Future Research

Scenarios

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What if autonomous vehicles replace all drivers and eliminate car

ownership?

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90% of auto insurance premiums could disappearTraffic accidents reduced by 90%Hospital and health insurer revenue could be reduced as car related injuries plummetGovernments lose fines as cars obey traffic lawsParking operators and municipal revenues underminedCar-related cases disappear for personal-injury lawyersBody shops would mostly disappear for lack of businessMany parts disappear from cars affecting many parts suppliersHotels and motels affected as people sleep in the comfort of self-driven vehiclesCar dealers are disintermediated by driverless cars sold as large fleetsIncreased vehicle utilization drives accelerated replacement cyclesCriminal and terrorist activity accelerates70 % of existing cars not needed in the future

Future Scenario: Automotive

Government

New Entrants

Health Insurance

Software Developers

Internet Companies

Auto-Makers

Car Dealer

Parking Lot Operators

Car Insurance

Legal

Oil & Gas

Hospital

Consumer Electronics

Repair Shop

EcosystemCrowd

Staff-on-Demand

Community

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Creating a Mobility Ecosystem

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Business models shift to car servicesLand once reserved for parking repurposedChina races ahead to avoid building infrastructureDriverless taxis extend mobilityCars sold to transportation network companiesNew services like food and design emergeCoordination across fleet eliminates battery range problemsUber becomes the central dispatch for driverless taxisA technology giant drives operating system for the car platformThe car intersects with healthcare through health monitoringAs an open platforms apps make the car more productiveMobility service providers accelerate the spread of driverless cars

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We must take control of creating

our future

Ethics

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Humanity and technology are intertwining, but technology does not have ethics

Our future likely brings unintended consequences

Ethics

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1995 – 201557% gone from

Fortune 500 50% of 2025 Fortune 500 not

born yet

7,000 more $1 Billion

companies in next 10

years

$30 Trillion annual consumption in

emerging markets by 2025

45% of Fortune 500 come from emerging

markets by 2025

Competitive shifts and

aggressivenessViability

The convergence of multiple shifts

challenges viability

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