Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength

AL

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE IL

IN

IA

KY

LA

MDMA

MS

NJ

NY

NDOK

OR

SC

SD

UT

VA

WAMN

NH

TN TX

WV

WI

WY

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Pers

onal In

com

e P

er

Capit

a,

20

00

Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

MT

HI

AK

GA

KS

ME NE

NV

NC

OH PAVT

ID

MI

MO

NM

RIFL US

Low Income, High Educational AttainmentLow Income, Low Educational Attainment

High Income, High Educational AttainmentHigh Income, Low Educational Attainment

State New Economy Index (2002)

Top Tier

Middle Tier

Low Tier

Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength

DavidsonHamilton Knox

RutherfordShelby

Williamson

Wilson

TN

US

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%

Pers

onal

Inco

me

per C

apita

Educational Attainment (Associates and above)

Educational Attainment Level and Personal Income per Capita by Tennessee County, 2005-07 Average

Notes:1) Educational Attainment:% of Population at Age 25 and above with Associate's Degree or Above2) For small counties (i.e. population less than 20,000), regional average was applied for the calculation of educational attainment

Source: American Communiity Survey 2005-07

Educational Attainment and Rank Among States Tennessee, 2006 (Percent)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

7.8

23.4

6.5

85.0

82.1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Age 25-64 with Graduate/ Prof. Degree

Age 25-64 with Bachelor's or Higher

Age 25-64 with Associate Degree

Age 25-64 with HS Diploma

Age 18-24 with HS Diploma 28th

38th

48th

42nd

40th

CoffeeBedford

Moore

Cannon

Sequatchie

Van Buren

Grundy

Warren

MarshallWayne

Lawrence

DecaturPerry

Unicoi

Carter

Greene

Johnson

Grainger

Hancock

Knox

Rhea

Meigs

Mcminn

Bledsoe

Hamilton

Loudon

Bradley PolkFranklinLincoln

Pickett

Overton

RobertsonSumner

Cheatham

MontgomeryStewart

WilliamsonHumphreys

Monroe

FayetteShelby

Mcnairy

Henderson

HaywoodMadison

Tipton

WeakleyObionLake

AndersonBenton

Blount

Campbell

Carroll

Chester

ClaiborneClay

CockeCrockett

Cumberland

Davidson

De Kalb

DicksonDyer

Fentress

Gibson

Giles

Hamblen

Hardeman Hardin

HawkinsHenry

Hickman

HoustonJackson

Jefferson

Lauderdale

Lewis

Macon

Marion

Maury

MorganPutnam

RoaneRutherford

Scott

Sevier

Smith

SullivanTrousdale

Union Washington

White

Wilson

$19,400 to $32,500$17,500 to $19,400$15,600 to $17,500$13,600 to $15,600$10,700 to $13,600

Per Capita Personal Income, 2000

Tennessee = $19,393Data Source: 2000 Census8-07-02

Per Capita Income, 2000

Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Not Participating in the Workforce by Education

Attainment, 2005

U.S. Tennessee

Less than High School 37.0 45.2

High School 24.7 25.9

Some College 21.0 21.3

Associate Degree 17.4 16.9

Bachelor’s Degree 16.5 17.5

Graduate/Prof. Degree 13.9 13.1

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group - Tennessee, U.S. & Leading

OECD Countries

54.8

54.1

53.0

43.6

42.2

41.9

41.5

41.4

40.8

39.2

30.2

50.8

46.2

37.5

39.5

32.8

34.8

34.6

26.9

36.2

40.9

31.8

43.2 39.3

19.2

38.1

24.0

26.8

30.0

19.4

33.2

39.6

29.8

37.4

22.9

10.6

30.3

16.9

22.5

24.9

16.0

28.5

37.7

28.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada Japan Korea NewZealand

Ireland Belgium Norway France Denmark U.S. Tennessee

Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2006

29

.9

37

.2

25

.0

49

.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

Massachusetts

Connecticut

Maryland

New

Ham

pshireC

oloradoM

innesotaV

ermont

New

JerseyH

awaii

New

York

North D

akotaV

irginiaW

ashingtonR

hode IslandN

ebraskaIllinoisU

tahK

ansasM

ontanaS

outh Dakota

California

Iowa

Oregon

Wisconsin

United S

tatesM

aineD

elaware

Pennsylvania

Florida

North C

arolinaM

ichiganG

eorgiaA

laskaA

rizonaN

ew M

exicoIdahoW

yoming

Missouri

Ohio

South C

arolinaT

exasIndianaO

klahoma

Alabam

aT

ennesseeK

entuckyN

evadaM

ississippiLouisianaA

rkansasW

est Virginia

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Student Pipeline, 2006

Sources: (1) Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity; Chance for College by Age 19. (2) NCES, IPEDS 2006 Retention Rate File and 2006 Graduation Rate File. (3) U.S.

Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey.

86.0

60.0

42.0

30.0

69.0

42.0

28.0

20.0

67.0

43.0

29.0

19.0

42.9

29.323.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

Graduate fromHigh School

Directly EnterCollege

Enroll inSecond Year

GraduateWithin 150% ofProgram Time

Are Age 25-44with a Bachelor's

Degree

Best Performing StateUnited StatesTennessee

Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…

The Goal: TennesseeReaching International Competitiveness by

2025

55% of Population Age 25-64 with

College Degrees

How Can Tennessee Reach International Competitiveness?

Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the

Student Pipeline Measures

1,376,532

1,068,576

117,175

45,667

30,704

714,780

157,205

3,045

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000

Degrees Produced 2005-25 with Current Rate of Production

Additional Degrees from Population Growth

Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-Educated Residents

Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025

Reaching Best Performance in College-Going Rates by 2025

Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student

Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above

Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%)

Source: 2005 ACS, PUMS

Pipeline is cumulative

Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Age Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will

Leave Gaps in More than 30 States

2,7888,89810,875

23,54224,74125,32628,65934,54737,70639,43644,75747,42053,57453,995

62,33265,853

74,752110,495112,681114,375115,120

122,061132,748

159,765186,640

204,814287,565

307,956320,720

560,688

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

IndianaMissouri

ConnecticutMarylandWyomingGeorgia

HawaiiMontana

IdahoMaine

WisconsinNew Mexico

MichiganOregon

OklahomaAlaska

West VirginiaAlabama

South CarolinaOhio

MississippiArizona

North CarolinaKentuckyArkansasLouisiana

NevadaTennesseeNew Jersey

CaliforniaFloridaTexas 1,333,645

893,504

In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states cannot close the gap with even best

performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline—getting older adults back into the education system and on track to

attaining college degrees.

Collective Cost to Tennessee, AssumingTuition Stays the Same

$1.06 Billion =Annual Costs of Additional Students at Current $ per Student

$1.51 Billion =Current State Contribution

70% =Percent Increase in Annual State Support Needed

Average Cost to Students, AssumingNo Additional State Investment

$4,245 =Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public Four-Year Institutions

94% Increase in Tuition and Fees(Currently $4,531)

$2,249 =Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public Two-Year Institutions

120% Increase in Tuition and Fees(Currently $1,882)

Total Funding per FTE (2006-07)

Perfo

rman

ce (2

006-0

7)

Performance Relative to Funding: Bachelors Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates

(Public Research Institutions)

AZ

AR

DE

GAHI

IL

IN

IAKS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

ID KY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

UT

WV

WIWY

15

18

21

24

27

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Source: NCES, IPEDS

Total Funding per FTE (2006-07)

Perfo

rman

ce (2

006-0

7)

Performance Relative to Funding: Bachelors Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates (Public Bachelors and

Masters)

AK

AZ AR DEGA

HI

IL

IN

IA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NCND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RISC

SD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

ID

KY

MIMN

MSMO

NH

NM

TN

TX

UT

WV

WI

5

10

15

20

25

30

2,000 5,000 8,000 11,000 14,000 17,000 20,000

Source: NCES, IPEDS

Total Funding per FTE (2006-07)

Perfo

rman

ce (2

006-0

7)

Performance Relative to Funding: All Credentials Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates (Public

Two-Year Institutions)

AK

AZ

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

IN

IA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

ORPA

RI

SC

SD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

ID

KY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TN TX

UT

WV

WI

WY

8

16

24

32

40

48

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

Source: NCES, IPEDS

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

Degree Production (Associates and Bachelors) per 100 Fall Undergraduate FTE

US and Tennessee, AY 1987-88 through 2007-08(All Sectors included)

US

TN

Source: IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey from 1987 to 2007; IPEDS Completion Survey from 1988 to 2008

2) The calculation of fall FTE followed the method suggested by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) (See: http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/glossary/index.asp?id=854)

Notes: 1)Institutions that do not award at least associate's degrees are excluded (e.g. Tennessee Technology Centers); for-profits included

Calculation of the Ratio: Total Number of Degrees (Associates and Bachelors) Produced by All Degree Granting Institutions during AY/Fall FTE Undergraduate Enrollment in these institutions *100

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

DC

FL

GA

HI

ID IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD MA

MI

MN

MS

MOMT

NENV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OKOR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX UT

VT

VA

WA

WV

WI

WY

US

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

13.5 15.5 17.5 19.5 21.5 23.5 25.5

% o

f Inc

reas

e in

Deg

ree

Prod

uctiv

ity R

atio

from

AY

1988

to A

Y 20

08

Degree Production per Fall FTE in AY 2008 (All Sectors)

Degree Productivity Ratio:Current Standing (AY 2008) and 20-year Growth Rate, All Sectors

Included

Notes: Institutions that do not award at least associate'sdegrees are excluded (e.g. Tennessee Technology Centers); for-profits included

Calculation of the Ratio: Total Number of Degrees (Associates and Bachelors) Produced by All Degree Granting Institutions during AY/Fall FTE Undergraduate Enrollment in these institutions *100

Tennessee Higher Education Commission

Higher Education RevenuesHigher Education Revenues

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Total Revenue per FTE -UniversitiesInflation Adjusted

Tuition Incr

Tuition

ARRA

State