Relationship between Electrification Rate and Electricity Demand on Climate Change Mitigation

Shogo SAKAMOTOCentral Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Chiba, JAPAN

Figure 4. Differences in electricity demand and final energy between mitigation targets for each model

Figure 3. Electrification pattern

Figure 2. E-D-R plot

Numerous decarbonization pathways show

that a higher electricity share of the end-use

energy mix could contribute towards climate

change mitigation (Sugiyama 2012, Williams

et al. 2012, IPCC WG3 2014, and DDPP 2015).

The aim of this study was to clarify whether

the change of electricity demand is positive

or negative on some deep decarbonization

scenario with electrification rate is

increasing compared the reference scenario

by using AR5 scenario database.

Figure 1. Research question

*We chose the scenario in which the technology categories defined in AR5 scenario database were T0 (no negative emissions and no restriction) and T3 (no negative emissions and (other) restrictions) and the 2100 emissions categories were “>720 ppm”, “530–720 ppm” and “430–530 ppm”.

*”Reference” means any combination of E and D in E-D-R plot(Figure2).

Figure 4. Differences in E-D-R between mitigating targets