relative to total private borrowing...increase in cash balance u 3/4 public series savings 1 4 bonds...

24
$Bil. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 18 FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY-ASSISTED BORROWING FROM THE PUBLIC iiij Sponsored Agency Obligations Guaranteed Obligations-^ Off-Budget Deficit-1/ Budget Deficit-?/ oq 47 34 J9 „• H || m 24 ^2'2'Ja 326 1970 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83e '84e Fiscal Years J/Adjusted for Federal and sponsored agency purchases of guaranteed obligations. 2/Consists largely of Federal Financing Bank borrowings from Treasury. 3/Adjusted for changes in cash balance and other means of financing, e estimate Office of the Secretary of the Treasury Office of Government Finance & Market Analysis $Bil. 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 April 26. 1983-22

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Page 1: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

$Bil.

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

18

FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY-ASSISTEDBORROWING FROM THE PUBLIC

iiij Sponsored Agency Obligations

Guaranteed Obligations-^

Off-Budget Deficit-1/

Budget Deficit-?/

oq 4734 J9 „•H || m 24

^2'2'Ja

326

1970 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83e '84eFiscal Years

J/Adjusted for Federal and sponsored agency purchases of guaranteed obligations.2/Consists largely of Federal Financing Bank borrowings from Treasury.3/Adjusted for changes in cash balance and other means of financing,e estimate

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

$Bil.

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

April 26. 1983-22

Page 2: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY-ASSISTED LENDING

RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983e

Fiscal Years

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

e estimate

April 26, 1983-24

Page 3: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

$Bil.

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

TREASURY FINANCING REQUIREMENTSJanuary - March 1 983

Uses

Coupon ,Maturities fr

ForeignNonmarketables:

Public Series| V2

Gov't Series

^Cash Deficit

85 VzSources

WCoupon Refunding

1V2 I State and Local

Savings Bonds

Net Market 4Borrowing w

Decrease inCash Balance

$Bil.

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis April 26, 1983-20

Page 4: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

$Bil.70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

TREASURY FINANCING REQUIREMENTSApril - June 1 983

Uses Sources

621/2

ForeignNonmarketables

Gov't Series^ 13/,

CouponMaturities^ I^Coupon Refunding

Increase inCash Balance u

3/4

Public Series

Savings1 4 BondsVz

State andLocal

^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2<>Borrowing W*v/2^\

To BeDone34 V4

1/ Assumes $20 billion cash balance June 30, 1983.

2/ Issued or announced through April 22, 1983.

\lDone^

6V4

$Bil.70

60

50

40

— 30

20

— 10

0

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis April 26, 1983-21

Page 5: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

TREASURY OPERATING CASH BALANCESemi-Monthly

$bll.

30•«—Without New-^

Borrowing±f

Tax and Loan f \20 Accounts Balance^ \ Total k

/ \ Operating /\>\/ ^-\ Balance / ^ \ /*<

*

10/ ^ V

...••••••...

i'i'iii/ \

((it '"tiimki .«..»»'11"<"""*"»l>.«l»•••^f„^M„...«",,<*, "'-n™,ra...«nii...ii,1.»im»*"' "*"•" •'«" ' .w"w",,,""""-,„j•••

0Federal Reserve Account

••••••

-10

«...

-20• •• •• •• •• •• •• •• •

V-30

, ,Ill 1 I

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep1982

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

1983

May Jun

AJ Assumes refunding of maturing issues except for $.9 billion of 3'/4% bond maturing June 15.Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis April 26, 1983-19

Page 6: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

$Bil.

60

50

40

30

20

10

TREASURY NET MARKET BORROWING^Calendar Year Quarters

COUPONSill Over 10 yrs800-10 yrs.

BILLS

6M 59.2

II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

1979 1980 1981 1982

1/ Excludes Federal Reserve and Government Account Transactions.

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

I II

1983

$Bil.

April 26, 1983-18

Page 7: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

TREASURY NET BORROWING FROM NONMARKETABLE ISSUES$Bil.

0

-2

-4

-8

2.2gs

I-1.7

-1.4-.9

I II III IV

1979

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

85

JSavings Bonds

jState & Local Series

|Foreign Nonmarketables

wm

-.8

-1.4

-2.41-2.2

-1.9

-4.2

-6.6

I II III IV I II III IV

1980 1981

e estimate

$Bil.

2.5

.2

wz% va

II-2.5 --4 -.9

0

-4

- -6

I II III IV I II*

1982 1983

-8

April 26, 1983-17

Page 8: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

QUARTERLY CHANGES IN FOREIGN AND INTERNATIONALHOLDINGS OF PUBLIC DEBT SECURITIES

$BII.i i$BH.

12

8

0

-4

-8

-12

-16

Nonmarketable

Marketable

g^ Add-ons-^ 8.0 86• Other Transactions

5.5

2-9 3.6

wn

^g

wm

-1.3

J-1.6

-3.8

-5.0 -5.8

-13.3

4.4 L8.

-.5

II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

1979 1980 1981 1982-^F.R.B. purchases of marketable issues as agents for foreign and international

monetary authorities which are added to the announced amount of the issue.Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance &Market Analysis 2] Partly estimated.

'83

12

8

0

-4

-8

-1-12

-16

April 26, 1983-9

Page 9: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

CUMULATIVE NET CASH FLOW IN SAVINGS BONDS*/

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

M M J J A

Month of year1/ Cash sales less redemptionse April 1983 partly estimated April 26, 1983-8

Page 10: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

NEW MONEY FROM NONCOMPETITIVE BIDS INTREASURY BILL AUCTIONS AND AVERAGE AUCTION YIELDS$Mil.

400

300

200

100

0

-100

-200

-300

-400

-500

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

1982 Auction Dates 1983-VNew money is the difference between noncompetitive bids on the new

office of the secretary of the Treasury issues and maturing bills previously bid noncompetitively.Office ofGovernment Finance &Market Analysis -i/DiSCOUnt baSIS April 26, ,983~16

New Money -^(left scale)

1116 Months•13 Months

Average Auction Yields-^(right scale)

6 Month Bill

— 3 Month Bill

%

15

14

13

12

11

10

9

8

7

Page 11: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATESMonthly Averages

1979

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

1980 1981 1982 1983

April 26, 1983-11

Page 12: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

%

16

14

12

10

8

SHORT TERM INTEREST RATESWeekly Averages

Prime Rate

Throughweek ending

April 20

*• / •. " . _ _ t \ _^ ^^""''3^• • •. . *«•••••....»......... ^^^^esf^H^^^^tfZs**'"**:"""

\J \ -. ,.-•••-••-—z^ps^ •••V •••••• •-.«•• "*• 3 Month3 Month

Treasury Bill

Jul Aug Sep Oct

1982

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

1983

Apr

%

16

14

12

10

8

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

April 26, 1983-12

Page 13: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

%

19

LONG MARKET RATESMonthly Averages

17

New ConventionalMortgages

New Aa / *Corporates* /"%. f^v^^

/A / •••" "> \ \

\\

Treasury 20-Year

1979

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

1980 1981

%

19

17

15

13

11

1982 1983

April 26, 1983-10

Page 14: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

%

8

INTERMEDIATE AND LONG MARKET RATESWeekly Averages

Municipal Bonds20-Year

Jul Aug Sep Oct

1982

Throughweekending

April 22

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

1983

Apr

%

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

-i9

8

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis April 26, 1983-13

Page 15: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

» <

MARKET YIELDS ON GOVERNMENTSBid Yields

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

5 6

Years to Maturity

April 26, 1983-23

Page 16: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

$Bil

PRIVATE HOLDINGS OF TREASURY MARKETABLE DEBTBY MATURITY

800-

700

600-

500

400

300

200

100

01972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

As of December 31

COUPONS

' ]Over 10 years12-10 years1-2 years

1 year & under

BILLS

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

March 31, 1983^5795.1

April 26, 1983-4

Page 17: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

PRIVATE HOLDINGS OF TREASURY MARKETABLE DEBTBY MATURITY

100%

90

Coupons Qover 10 yrs

H 2-10 yrs

1-2 yrs Bills

1 yr & under

10

1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Mar'83

As of December 31Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

April 26, 1983-5

Page 18: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

AVERAGE LENGTH OF THE MARKETABLE DEBTPrivately Held

June 194710 Years

5 Months

Months

March 31, 19833 Years

10 Months

i l I i l I I I I I L

J FMAMJ J ASOND

1945 47 49

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

53 55

April 26, 1983-3

Page 19: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

MATURING COUPON ISSUESMay - September 1983

(In Millions of Dollars)

Maturing Issues

Outstanding March 31,1983

Total

Held By

Federal Reserve

& Government

Accounts

Private

Investors

ForeignInvestors^/

7 7/8% Nt. 5/15/83

11 5/8% Nt. 5/15/83

15 5/8%Nt. 5/31/83

3 1/4% Bd. 6/15/83

8 7/8% Nt. 6/30/83

14 5/8% Nt. 6/30/83

15 7/8% Nt. 7/31/83

11 7/8% Nt. 8/15/83

9 1/4% Nt. 8/15/83

16 1/4% Nt. 8/31/83

9 3/4% Nt. 9/30/8316% Nt. 9/30/83

2,5733,6184,763

979

3,1234,6074,9744,2856,6705,4312,8025,268

113

862

525

157

426

490

387

1,0863,214

643

284

459

2,4602,7564,238

822

2,6974,1174,5873,1993,4564,7882,5184,809

14

644

634

44

520

985

556

260

882

345

830

Total 49,093 8,646 40,447 5,714

jy F.R.B. custody accounts for foreign official institutions;included in Private Investors.

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis April 26, 1983-15

Page 20: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

TREASURY MARKETABLE MATURITIESPrivately Held, Excluding Bills and Exchange Notes

$Bil.

6

4

2

0

10

8

6

4

2

0

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

10

8

6

4

2

0

8

6

4

2

0

7.8 |^L9

10.2

co 1983 6.7iVS8! 4.8J4.8

7.3 61 7.24.8H4.8

r 9jio-7|9.3 1984

8-Ll2e, 1 -!- II ^

ill i ill 1i

ill!120 11.0 1985 1"

I

3.9

1

3.1

II g1986

4.4

m1

I

7.5

I

illi

9.5

3.6 3.3

5.76.8

5.6

16.2

5.5

19877.1

4.1

1FMAMJJ ASOND

^| Securities issued prior to 1981New issues calendar year 1981Office of the Secretary of the Treasury

Office of Government Finance & Market Analysis

$Bil.

8

6

4

2

0

5.0

g 16-

3.5

4.8

2.8

2 I

3.3

U 1988

3.4

2.2

19894.7

1990

2.6

3.22.3

t£ 3-8

II5.1

4

2

0

6

4

2

0

4

2

0

10

8

6

4

2

0

8-

6

4

2

0

— 1991

1.72.4 2.5

2.6

6.4

8.9

s1992

1993

4.1

2.4

2.21.3

JFMAMJJ ASOND

New issues calendar year 1982

Issued or announced through April 22, 1983 April 26,1983-1

Page 21: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

$Bil.4

2

0

4

2

0

TREASURY MARKETABLE MATURITIESPrivately Held, Excluding Bills and Exchange Notes

2

02 —

ol—2

0

2

0

4

2

0

4

2

0

4

2

0

4

2

0

2.9

1.7

2.1

1.5

1.7

3.0

2.7

3.2

.8

1.7

83

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

1.5

2.5

I

2.5

1.5

1.4

1.6

0

2.8

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Securities issued prior to 1981

New issues calendar year 1981Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

2

0

2

02

04

2

0

4

2

0

4

2

0

4

2

0

4

2

0

6

4

2

0

2

0

2.7

1.8

2.1

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

?-9 2009

I2010

1.9

3 8 2011

2012

2013

1.4

1.2

3.6

I3.4

I4.2

4.4

1

6.5

JFMAMJJASONDp^JNew issues calendar year 19821111 Issued or announced through April 22, 1983 Apri| 26,1983-2

Page 22: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

NET NEW MONEY IN AGENCY FINANCE, QUARTERLY

$Bil.

0

FNMA

I II III IV I II III IV

1979 1980

Privately Held,$Bil

FCA

* II

I II III IV I II III IV le II III IV

1981 1982 1983

*Less than $50 million.

GNMAMortgage BackedSecurities

I II III IV

1979I II III IV

1980

Partly estimated.

III

IV

1981

Office of

Office of

the Secretary of the TreasuryGovernment Finance & Market Analysis

J/ Includes FHLB discount notes, bonds, and FHLMC discount notes, debentures,certificates, mortgage-backed bonds, and mortgage participation certificates.

h

I II III IV

1982Iell III IV

1983

April 26,1983-14

Page 23: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

AGENCY MATURITIES^Privately Held

$Bil.

a 1987 1988 1989 1990

6

4

4.84.7

1113.54.0

2

nIII! I 2.2

III. i i 1.31.5 1.6

• III1.3 1.51_9• .*••

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV III IV

6-

4-

2-

1991

2.1

.1

1992

.6 .81.3

1993

2.8

1

1994

0

4h 1995

2-

o

2

0

2

0

2

0

2-

1999

2003

.1

1996

.1 A

2000

2004

1997

1.2 .9• .3 .2 m

2001

.1

2005

.1 .1

.1

1998

.1 .2 .2 .1

2002

.3

2006

.1 .1

2007

_2 A_

2008

^2 ^3

2009

.3 .3

2010

2011 2012

.5

2013

.2

2014

.2

- 2015 2016 2017 2018

IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

Office of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis

Calendar Years Quarterly•U Securities issued through March 31, 1983* Less than $50 million.

April 26, 1983-6

Page 24: RELATIVE TO TOTAL PRIVATE BORROWING...Increase in Cash Balance u 3/4 Public Series Savings 1 4 Bonds Vz State and Local ^Cash Deficit Net Market ±a0V2 Borrowing W*v/2^\ To

SCHEDULE OF COUPON ISSUES TO BE ANNOUNCEDAND AUCTIONED IN JUNE 1983^

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

6 7 8

Announce

2 Year

9 10

13 14

Announce

4 Year

7 Year

20 Year

15

Auction

2 Year U

16 17

20 21

Auction

4 Year-!'

22

Auction

7 Year a/

23

Auction

20 Year J/

24

-^Does not include 5 year issue which will probably be announced in late May

i/For settlement June 30

-2/For settlement in early JulyOffice of the Secretary of the TreasuryOffice of Government Finance & Market Analysis April 26, 1983-7