reliability-centered maintenance: cost-effective technique ...?reliability-centered maintenance:...

Download RELIABILITY-CENTERED MAINTENANCE: COST-EFFECTIVE TECHNIQUE ...?RELIABILITY-CENTERED MAINTENANCE: COST-EFFECTIVE TECHNIQUE TO ... RELIABILITY MAINTENANCE ... Gulati, R., Smith, R. Maintenance

Post on 20-Mar-2018

217 views

Category:

Documents

2 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

  • Data Analysis| Nordex Energy GmbH | Hamburg | confidential

    RELIABILITY-CENTERED MAINTENANCE: COST-EFFECTIVE TECHNIQUE TO MINIMIZE TURBINE FAILURE

    PhD. Jurgita Simaityte, senior fleet data analyst

    EWEA operating wind farms workshop

    Bilbao 14-15 April

  • AGENDA

    2

    Nordex at a glance

    RAMS concept and O&M relation

    Reliability centered maintenance

    Life-cycle management and (un)certainty

    RCM and costs management

    Summary

    EWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao JSI

  • NORDEX AT A GLANCE

    Currently focused on ~20 countries onshore market position 2015 (w/o AWP)

    3

    PakistanNx installations 2015: 28 MW

    (market data not yet disclosed)

    South AfricaMarket share 2015: 18%

    UruguayMarket share 2015: 17%

    TurkeyMarket share 2015: 29%

    Order intake: +67%

    GermanyMarket share 2015: 12%

    UKMarket share 2015: 32%

    IrelandMarket share 2015: 25%

    Chile Subsidiary established

    FranceMarket share 2015: 14%

    FinlandMarket share 2015: 40%

    EUROPEMarket share 2015: 13%

    10% 10%GLOBALMarket share 2015: 3%

    ChinaSourcing only

    Investor Presentation | Nordex SE | February 2016

    NordexAWPNordex + AWP

  • RAMS: RELIABILITY, AVAILABILITY, MAINTAINABILITY AND SAFETY

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao 4

    Reliability

    Designed-in reliability

    Operating environment

    Asset performance without operational errors

    Maintenance plan

    Sustaining reliability of the asset

    Availability improvement

    O&MOEM

    design optimizationreliability specifications

    maintenance optimizationcost reduction

  • OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE CHALLENGES

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao 5

    O&M market is growing!Market

    Competition

    Aging and diverse fleet requires innovative O&M approach

    Challenge

    Decrease OPEXOpportunity

    Cost-effective strategies: RCMTools

  • JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao 6

    RELIABILITY CENTERED MAINTENANCE

    The goal is to reduce life-cycle costs while continuing to allow the system to function as intended with required reliability and availability

    RCM

    Reactive Preventive Predictive Proactive

    non critical redundant

    known failure pattern

    wear-out consumable

    critical not wear-

    out random

    failures

    root cause analysis

    FMEA commissioning

  • RELIABILITY MAINTENANCE STRATEGIES

    7

    Function and failure analysis

    Failure modes analysis

    Maintenances strategies selection

    Preventive tasks selection

    Action time

    Syste

    m c

    onditio

    n

    100%

    Failure time Failure time

    1

    2Potential 1: Prolong lifecycle

    Potential 2:Exchange component

    Potential 3:Do nothing

    2

    1

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao

    33

  • SYSTEM LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT

    8

    Decision making process

    Input data

    - Failure records

    - Operational data

    - Maintenance records

    Analysis on component level

    System reliability model

    Life-time analysis

    System

    Component A

    Component C

    Component D

    Component B

    Component E

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao

  • UNCERTAINTY SOURCES

    9

    Uncertainty

    Input variables

    Model

    Parameter

    Outcome

    Unknown inadequacies

    Source: Roeser,S et al., Essentials of Risk Theory. Levels of Uncertainty. Springer, p:29-54.

    unknown unknowns

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao

  • WEIBULL RELIABILITY MODEL

    (eta)=11 years (characteristic lifetime)

    JSI 10EWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao

    All models are wrong, but some are useful. /George E. P. Box/

    Note: Examples present simulated failure data

  • CONFIDENCE BOUNDS AND EFFECT OF SAMPLE SIZE

    11

    *Sample size = N(n/m): N- total sample size, n failed, m - healthy.

    5

    7

    9

    11

    13

    15

    17

    19

    21

    23

    25

    5 10 15 25 35 45 50 55 100

    Eta

    confidence b

    ounds

    Sample size

    real beta

    Real eta

    There is a 95% probability that the calculated confidence interval encompasses the true value of the population parameter.

    Sample size = 5(3/2)* Sample size = 10(6/4) Sample size = 50(33/17) Sample size = 100(54/36)

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao

    Note: Examples present simulated failure data

  • TOTAL OUTCOME VARIABILITYMonte Carlo Simulation

    12

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    4,5 5 5,5 6 6,5 7 7,5 8 8,5 9 9,5 10 10,5 11 11,5 12

    Para

    mete

    r valu

    e

    Time line [years]

    MLE beta RR beta MLE eta RR eta

    real eta

    real beta

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao

    Monte Carlo Simulation performs risk analysis by generating possible results by substituting a range of valuesa probability distributionfor any factor that has inherent uncertainty.

    Note: Examples present simulated failure data

  • RISK AND DECISION MAKING FOR THE FUTURE

    13

    Output variability

    Best case scenario 22 failed Worst case scenario 50 failed

    11M 25M

    Money?( 500K/gearbox)

    30 gearboxes will fail in the next 2

    years

    80%

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao

    Decision

    Note: Examples present simulated failure data

  • SUMMARY

    14

    RCM approach offers a high potential for smart O&M

    Life cycle analysis of the system - input to verify reliability and optimize maintainance

    Uncertainty and risk assessment is the basic step in RCM strategies selection

    RCM plays significant role in conflict between product costs saving and maintaining reliability of the product in the field

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao

  • 15JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao

    ContactJurgita SimaityteSenior data analystRemote ServicesNordex Energy GmbH

    Thank you for your attention!

    Questions?

  • REFERENCES

    JSIEWEA operating wind farms workshop | 14-15 April 2016 | Bilbao 16

    1. Gulati, R., Smith, R. Maintenance and Reliability Best Practices, Industrial Press Inc., 2009

    2. "NASA Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) Guide for Facilities and Collateral Equipment" (PDF). NASA. FEV 2000.

    3. Nowlan, F.S. and Heap, H.F. Reliability-Centered Maintenance, Dolby Access Press, San Francisco, CA 1978.

    http://www.everyspec.com/NASA/NASA-General/NASA_RCM_GUIDE_2000_267/

Recommended

View more >